11/11/2017 – Stakes Day Preview (Posted: 9:41pm Thursday 09/11/2017)

So, we come to the end of another Spring Carnival. I have to admit, I have had one hell-a-va ride this Spring & I am sceptical that it will continue for one more meeting, but I am happy to give a bit back in the pursuit of greater riches. :roll:
3 x Major Race Pick 4s is a fair effort, admittedly for small percentages but I’m not Kerry Packer! I will say this though - based on this Spring, I will not be focussing my Exotic Bets on Trifectas from now on. I will be going for the Pick 4s. Not based on my ‘lucky streak’ but more on the relatively poor dividends that Trifectas appear to be paying these days, even when the Pools seem large.

I had a thought about the reason why this appears to be the case, particularly with the Cup. I have drawn the conclusion that because of the amount of ‘mystery’ bets & Box 4, 5 or 6 bets that people have on the Race, it appears the amount of collects have increased significantly across the country. Look at the difference in dividends: Trifecta paid $2800+, with a $15 winner, the Pick 4 paid $55K+ with what I considered the best ‘locally trained’ runner running 4th!

As you know, I like looking at statistics, & stats tell us that the Trifecta Dividends on the Melbourne Cup have diminished considerably over the past 2 decades. Worth changing One’s strategy when considering the Exotic Bets, I think.

Anyway, to this Saturday, & despite the success so far – I don’t intend to get carried away increasing the Unit values or number. Perhaps that can be considered ‘weak’, but like I said earlier in the week, I think discipline is prudent when outlaying One’s ‘hard earned’.

Flemington – MR 8 The Emirates (McKinnon) Stakes

Still annoyed that this race was moved from Derby Day, but I get the reasoning. That said, it appears to be the ‘consolation prize’ in terms of WFA Glory. One might argue that is next week at Sandown, but this is a more prestigious race than that one.

Some interesting form lines to wade through here. Obviously, the Cox Plate runners: 1, 3, 7; the Vase 3 yr old runner up & winner of the Norman Robinson, Cliff’s Edge, 4 that ran in the Cantala over a Mile, on Derby Day: 4, 5, 6, 12; Odeon won over 1800m on Tuesday, Harlem ran OK in the Lexus, It’s Somewhat started favourite & ran 3rd in the Crystal Mile on Cox Plate day & O’Brien’s runner ran poorly in a good form race, The Caulfield Stakes, which Gallo Chop won.

I think The Taj Mahal will run well, but I think he is being set to peek for the race NEXT week. That said, I want to back him, currently $51 Boosted on Ladbrokes, but the $8.20 the place is way overs IMHO . Happy to back him. Gallo Chop has done nothing wrong this campaign, but has he had enough? Tom Melbourne just doesn’t win, although I see they’ve changed the jockey & Walker might make a difference but as a WIN proposition you have to say no, don’t you?
I think the best horse is Folkswood , but 4/1 is too skinny for me. The one I am afraid of is Gingernuts (the NZer). The Kiwi trainers haven’t done a lot so far this Spring (I consider Waller an Aussie trainer because he’s based here). Is this because the horses aren’t much chop? Perhaps, but I am wary of it, & the 3 yr old has to be given a chance with the weight advantage & the distance. Backing The Taj Mahal 1 x 3 Units, with 6 Units win on Gingernuts & 5 Units win on Cliff’s Edge .

Pick 4: 7, 10 / 1, 4, 7, 10, 13, 15 / 1, 2, 3, 4, 6, 7, 10, 13, 14, 15 / 1, 2, 3, 4, 6, 7, 9, 10, 12, 13, 14, 15 (for 5%) $28
(Is it a bit greedy to want another one?)

Flemington – MR 7 The Darley Classic

This is a terrific race & I think barriers will play an important part in the outcome. They will split & some will come down the outside. Based on today’s evidence, the inside was no disadvantage with the winner of the last (Hugh Bowman’s 1st winner of the Carnival) running on the inside rail. That said, I suspect the outside to be the ‘place to be’ by Race 7 on Saturday. The Hawkes camp will be desperate to win this race, having had the Grey scratched at the barrier, albeit somewhat controversially, before The Everest.

Malaguerra loves it here & has the outside gate. He’s 3rd up & the price is overs IMHO. I rate him a $10 chance & currently he’s $18 boosted & $4.20 the Place! So, I have to back him. I give big ‘shows’ to 1, 2, 3, 6 & 7. But at the price, I’ll take Malaguerra 2 x 5 units .

Trifectas: 1, 6/ 1, 6/ Field; 1, 5/ 1, 5/ Field; 5, 6/ 5, 6/ Field

Flemington – MR 6 The Matriarch Stakes

Mares races are always difficult to access toward the end of Carnivals. I’ve found one here at a price, that might be an ‘up & comer’ for the Autumn. Cedar Grande is in an astute stable & gets the services of a top jockey here in Dunn. I think she ‘maps’ well here just off the speed about 5th or 6th. I feel she’ll enjoy the Open spaces of the Flemington straight & provided she can get out & run on, I like her to cause a bit of a boil over at good odds. 8) She finished off her race at The Valley last start well & given time to ‘wind up’, she could be right in the finish. Happy to back her 1 x 4 Units , in a wide-open race.

Well, there it is Lads, previews for another year.
Thanks so much for ‘humouring me’ & allowing me to share my thoughts. :D
I am very thankful to have this forum to share & discuss my love of the Horses (& compulsive gambling ;) ).

I hope I have provided you with some coin over the journey – I certainly have some.
Until Autumn… Cheers.

I do not support the Females getting a 'Baggy Green' as such. The AFLW uniforms are slight variations on the AFL examples, the Women's Cricket Team should also be IMHO. They should have a Cap, of course, but it should have a variation on the Original - perhaps a Gold Band or Gold part? The 'Baggy Green' is iconic, it is unique & it is given to a very select few. Just like the Women Footballers, Women Cricketers deserve their own identity, don't they?

Only 2 races (R4 & R6) @ Morphettville have 3 dividends paid today... Sad state of affairs

Reminder???

Tell you what, you send me your 'bank' for the year & I'll put them on for you

johntheclaret wrote:when you live as far north as I do being a North supporter seemed apt my nippon friend.
I’ll pass on your love to Mr R

Dirty Northern Bastard...

Spirits all day every day...

Bourbon or Scotch - looks exactly like Lipton's Iced Tea - take them in.

Vodka or Gin - mixes nicely with Lemon or Orange/Mango Cottee's Cordial.

Leave the soft drink bottles sealed because that's what they are looking for - broken seals 8)

Cans of beer, drunk in car park - plastic bag with ice, stashed under a car tyre somewhere.

30 years of experience :roll:

Polaxed!
Spent the last session with the Barmys ... blind!
Great Day's cricket!

Hey Lads,

I'm back from Europe & over my Jet Lag - wondering if you would mind indulging me this Autumn with some previews, again?
So much good racing coming up over the next 6 to 8 weeks - although Sydney is usually very difficult due to the state of the wet tracks. Wonder if it will be the same story in 2018?

FWIW, I like Booker E/Way in the Oakleigh Plate tomorrow - the gate is a concern but she does like the track. I am concerned about the Apprentice being employed but she's an above average filly that raced really well in the Spring. Her run 1st up was (by all reports) very good. The enhanced $17 is juicy, as is the $4.20 the place. 1 x 3 Units for me :)

From the Messenger:

"Struggling Eagles call for rent and power bailout"

Eagles’ chairman Kurt Slaven and general manager Chris Branson told the meeting the club’s struggling financial situation meant football programs would likely be cut if the council did not agree to the reduction in costs.

Mr Slaven and Mr Branson also argued spectator numbers for the club — which has played in 10 of the last 27 SANFL grand finals — had fallen from 4000 in 2012 to 1500 last year .

“We have a lower membership base than most clubs, with an average age of 56 for our members and our supporter spending patterns are lower,” Mr Branson said.

Correlation with AFL reserves in the SANFL?


This is EXACTLY what I said to Slaven would happen - You made your bed, Pal.
A reduction of over 50% of your already small supporter base - it is a shame that the 'birds have come home to roost'.
I gave them 10 yrs for survival, at the time.
Hang your head in shame Kurt Slaven - your 'pigheadedness' has resulted in your Club going broke & will cease to exist. These financial constraints will result in the Club falling to the foot of the 'SANFL' Ladder & will have a flow on effect of even less support.
There is blood on YOUR HANDS Kurt Slaven, yours alone. :evil:

Well, I loved the place - I basically grew up there as a kid.
We moved to West Lakes in 1974 - the end of Sportsman's Drive.
My Old Man used to drive his Ute to the West Lakes Mall carpark (remember Lloyds, before it was Banner?) on the eve of the Grand Finals in the 70's & early 80's & leave it there, with his BBQ locked inside. Then we would walk there early Saturday Morning, set up the BBQ, & have Breakfast.

He was a Member of SANFLUA & mates with Rick Kinnear, Lawrie Argent, 'Jack' Hilton & others.
I have fond memories of State Games under the Grandstand listening to pre-game speeches by Sheedy & Cornes - I recall literally bumping into Simon Madden in the Race, at 3/4 time of the Curtain Raiser (Norwood U/19s v SA Teal Cup side). Going to the after match function/presentations in the function rooms in awe of stars like Bradley, Platten, Kernahan, Naley, Jarman, Ablett, Watson, Weightman, Flower, Healy, etc.

1984 had the 2 Highlights: The 1st State Game under lights - Kernahan kicking 10; & the Grand Final between Port & Norwood (Torrens won the Ressies that year too) but the 'blue' between Balme & Evans was right in front of us.

1986 State game vs The Vics (the old man stole me a Match Sherrin from the bag - Argent stole 4 of them, hid them in the fridge in the Umpires Room!) that was a great win, particularly after being flogged by 22 man Victoria in '85... The Old Man Goal Umpired the International Rules Game that year too - I was there in the driving rain, & witnessed the Parachutist hit the Concourse Roof in the N/Western Pocket, & die. Took them ages to 'cut him down', as I recall :(

1978 Grand Final, Sturt v Norwood, I contend is still the BEST Grand Final I witnessed...
1980 I worked the 'trades', filling in for a friend's brother on occasion; "Pies, Pasties, Chicko Rolls & Orange Juice" - remember Big Ben Pies & Fruit Boxes?
1993 Modra's mark vs Nth Melbourne - right in front of me @ the Golf Course End... & the final Minor Round Game v Collingwood - I contend that was the LOUDEST I ever heard that place, & I saw most State of Origin Games there.
2006 WWTFC 2nd Flag - I believed that was the point when the 'old loyalties' of the 2 former Clubs were forgotten & the 'Merged Entity' accepted as the single Club
1986 1st Semi Final, Woodville v Port - 39,000 - in the Woodville Cheer Squad that day. Like everybody else in the State (except Port supporters), hoping Woodville would win :D
1982 Preliminary Final, Bays v Port - Granger's hit on Cornes. Again, not far from where we were sitting under-cover in the Concourse.
1981 1st West Torrens Mini League game - played on 1/2 the Oval, running East/West
1987 Pool B Pizza Hut Cup Grand Final - unfortunately lost by 10 points

There are many others but the saddest thing for me is my Old Man's Ashes were scattered there some 25 years ago - he loved the place, as did I. It is sad to see it go, but Adelaide Oval is far more accessible & a better venue.

No Preview this week Lads, but next week's Newmarket & Australian Cup meeting will be a 'bumper' Preview.

That said, I do like No 3 Embellish in the Australian Guineas tomorrow:
$31 Enhanced the Win on Ladbrokes & $6 Place on Sportsbet - 1 x 4 Units

Might give us a little help in the 'kick' for next week :D

What??? You mean the Cows & Port are ripping off the rest of the Clubs???
Who'd have thunk it?

So what you are essentially suggesting is; The SANFL exists purely for the benefit of the Adelaide & Port Adelaide Football Clubs.
No? Surely not?

Preview Posted 7:12pm Thursday 08/03/2018

Saturday 10/03/2018 & Monday 12/03/2018

Well here we are again, another Autumn Carnival.
Will be interesting to see if the pattern of the previous few years continues in Sydney with Wet/Heavy tracks throughout their Carnival. For Melbourne, we saw the Blue Diamond meeting 2 weeks ago result in an easy victory for the winner, Written By, & Booker had a shocker of a run 3 wide the trip to just miss the place in the Oakleigh Plate – I will be backing up this week.

Last week’s Flemington meeting resulted in number of favourites winning (which you would know by now, for me is not great) & the Great Mare won again. She’s the BEST this country has seen, I doubt anyone can argue with that now. I think she needs to go & beat the Europeans on their ‘turf’ @ Royal Ascot in Winter & perhaps come back for a 4th Cox Plate. Will she stay for ‘The Championships’? Time will tell.

So, to this week...
Headquarters gives us the ‘time honoured’ Newmarket Handicap plus the WFA Australian Cup – a below par field IMHO this year. For the 1st time in a long time, no Melbourne Cup Winner or Cox Plate winner from the previous year, which is disappointing. TBH, the field looks 2nd rate this year, based on the Spring Form of many of these runners. Sydney’s main race of the Day is the Randwick Guineas & Monday is Cup Day here – another below standard field really & appropriately no longer a Group 1 race.

Flemington R6 – The Newmarket Handicap

Unlike the Australian Cup, this field is pretty solid. As I said, I’m backing up with Booker . She’s got no weight, which is a big advantage & her record at the distance is very good. She will get a far better run here than in her previous start & I’ve taken the ‘powered’ $12 & the $3.30 the place is very acceptable. Happy to back her 2 x 5 Units .

Am wary of a couple of others:
Catchy always runs well & she’s unbeaten 2nd up. You have to be impressed with Redkirk Warrior’s 1st up run & he won this race last year. That said, he rises 5 kgs on that win & I think $7 is as short as you’d want him. I love Merchant Navy in Melbourne, but he’s far too short for me to back him @ 4/1 the win but Evens the Place is a good bet IMHO – we could get 5/4 ($2.25) on the Day, I could entertain 10 Units the Place. Brave Smash’s win in The Futurity was impressive but I don’t like sprinters dropping back in distance at their next start, particularly up the straight 6 furlongs. If he wins, you can bet the Trainer will be in tears :D

Backing Booker 2 x 5 units & saving on Merchant Navy 8 units the Place .
Pick 4: 11, 14, 15 / 7, 11, 14, 15 / Field / Field (2%)

Flemington R7 – The Australian Cup

As I said, this field is 2nd Rate IMHO. Yes, Almandin is a Melbourne Cup winner, but he’s now an 8 yr old. Is he the same horse that won the 2016 Cup? The jury’s out, I think. I like the Taj Mahal as a horse & backed him last year 2nd up when 4th, just beaten into a place in the McKinnon. He could well have a good Autumn & I can see him being very competitive i n a Ranvet @ WFA at Rosehill over 2400m , but he’s too short at 6/1 1st up in this race. I can entertain backing Hartnell , particularly @ the current $2.60 on offer the Place . The boosted $10 the win is the best price he’s been for a long time. Taking him 1 x 4 Units .

The interesting runner is Weir’s Japanese horse Ambious , can’t back him but still interested to see how he goes.
Homesman ’s run 1st up was impressive & he will be improved by that run, so happy to put him in the multiples.

Backing Hartnell 1 x 4 Units
Box Trifecta: 1, 2, 4, 6, 10 (40%)

Randwick R7 – The Randwick Guineas

This race over the Mile has many runners on an ATC Derby trail, one would think.
Kementari has clearly come back in great form & is the one to beat here. It ‘Maps’ well from the draw & gets the gun run from the gate. I can’t back it at the short quote, but concede it’s the one to beat.

I think the distance might tell on Trapeze Artist & think he’ll be feeling it with 100m to go. His racing pattern suggests that he’ll need it ‘quiet’ up front to hang on over the final furlong & I don’t think that will happen because Gai’s runner will set a strong ‘clip’, I think. That runner, (No. 11) Siege of Quebec , is well over the odds & if Reith gets an easy run in front, at a good tempo, I can see him being right in the finish. For that reason alone, I’m prepared to have a small wager the Place on it, not to mention the 'Randwick Mile' & Gai's record in these races.

I want to back the Waller runner Kaonic (No. 12). 3rd Up, good gate & jockey, plus it drops 2 ½ kgs on its previous start.
Record at the distance is perfect & I think he’s been set for this race. 1 x 4 Units .

Backing Kaonic 1 x 4 & Siege of Quebec 3 units the Place
Pick 4: 3, 5, 11, 12/ 3, 5, 11, 12/ Field / Field (2%)

Randwick R6 – Canterbury Stakes
Don’t like the race. Field is too small & the prices too compressed - $5 the Field.

Randwick R4 – The Todman Stakes

There’s one here I’m keen to follow, despite its poor showing in the Blue Diamond 2 weeks ago in Melbourne, Plague Stone .

Gate 14 is a worry but McEvoy in the seat may well compensate for that. He’s going to need to use all his powers to get this bloke into a decent spot, but if he can, the Powered $21 is very appealing. The fact that Cummings has scratched the other Godolphin runner, suggests a small wager might be prudent. He has won a trial this way of going & ran 2nd in a 5 ½ furlong race this way too. The Top 2 are the ‘shorties’ in the race but I am prepared to gamble on this one, 1 x 3 Units .

Backing Plague Stone 1 x 3 units

Monday 12/03/2018 ... Morphettville R7 – Adelaide Cup

Seriously, this is a weak field of ‘stayers’ – it’s just a race. Group 2 is its appropriate level IMHO.

Interestingly, most of the Victorian visitors have been meeting each other in the same races over the past months.

As with all 2 Mile races, weights & luck in running will play no small part in the final result. Weir & Hayes have 3 runners each (of 18), Robbie Laing has 2.
It would be great to see Leon McDonald win it or Clare Lindop win it in her last race day – personally, can’t see either winning but concede Place chances to both.

As always, I’m looking for Value in the race, & the one I’ve settled on is the one I know will run the distance – the Hayes runner No. 10, Al Haram .
From the gate, I can see Dee taking him to the back of the field.
He’s going to need luck coming around the turn from the 800m to the 400m, but he will be running on. If he can get clear running in the straight, he might just run them down. The massive price is nice & in such a ‘crap shoot’ of a race, I’m looking to collect on the Place dividend. If he wins, bonus!

Backing Al Haram 1 x 5 Units .
Box Trifecta: 3, 4, 5, 9, 10, 16 (30%)

There you go, Lads. Looking forward to a great Autumn. Let’s hope the weather stays fine.
Until next week … Happy Punting! :D

Preview Posted 7:00pm Friday 16/03/2018

Saturday 17/03/2018
The less said about last week, the better, I think! Had a ‘dog’ of a day on the Punt, with only Merchant Navy giving me a collect – the $2.60 Best Tote was very nice, but still didn’t help overall. Now be honest, did anyone back the winner of the Australian Cup? Anyway, to this week.
Not a lot on offer this week, really. Disappointing Blamey Field of 5 in Melbourne on Saturday, so looking to Sydney predominantly this week.

That said; ‘Friday Night Lights’ – R7 Mooney Valley – The Alistair Clarke Stakes
Clearly the Top weight is the ‘class’ in the Race & is a deserved favourite, but 5/4 on? Leave me out. I’ve looked at this race all week & I keep coming back to one that’s untried here at ‘The Valley’. I’m willing to concede that the ‘Top 3’ should have it between them (No. 1, 2, 3) but I’m after Value, as always.

Levendi ran a shocker in the Guineas, so I think he’s a risk @ the $7. Cliff’s Edge is the rightful fav but $1.75 is way too short for me, even with the Powered Odds of $1.90, so of the 3, Astoria is probably the best bet. That said, I’m backing Belfast (No. 6), which ran behind Astoria (2nd) in the Autumn Classic over 1800m. He’s a ‘run on’ type horse & might be able to make use of the ‘camber’. Happy to take him 1 x 4 Units , think he’ll run well.

Backing: Belfast 1 x 4 Units (DOC 8) )
Pick 4: 1, 2, 6 / 1, 2, 6, 8 / Field / Field (4%)

Sydney R7 – The Coolmore Classic

This is a tough race to ‘weigh up’ – many chances IMHO & it wouldn’t surprise to see a very well-priced winner. I have been watching the fluctuations all week with interest & Egg Tart has shortened significantly in the market from $8.50 to $5.50. That’s significant & the amount of support needs to be respected. I had her rated a $6 chance in the race anyway, so ENHANCED $7 is a fair WIN Bet IMHO. Bring Me Roses is another that has shortened significantly in the Market from $21 to $12. As a 3 yr Old Filly, is she up to these more ‘seasoned Mares’? I am sceptical. Oregon’s Day is another that has shortened (actually halved in price from $26 to $13) she’s an interesting runner. I think she’s being set for the ATC Oaks, or even the Schwepps Oaks here in Adelaide, she prepared to ‘watch’ her. If the track is SOFT or HEAVY , I give Prompt Response a huge ‘show’ of winning, but I’ve checked the forecast & it looks pretty clear. I am also VERY WARY of the Kiwi Mare Francaletta (No 14). She’s going to get a good run from the Gate & I think is over the Odds on her last run 3rd. Can entertain a PLACE Bet on her as she’ll be upfront for a long way in this race.
I think Gates will play a part in the final ‘wash-up’ of the race.

I have settled on last year’s Runner Up, Silent Sedition . She’ll get a much ‘kinder’ run this year from Gate 7 & her run last start at Caulfield in the Mannerism was good. She drops 1.5 kgs on that run & Williams sticks. The ENHANCED $10 with Ladbrokes is fine & the $3 Place on UBET was too nice not to accept. Backing her 2 x 5 Units with a 3 Unit PLACE Bet on the Kiwi Mare.

Backing: Silent Sedition 2 x 5 Units & a ‘saver’ on Francaletta 3 Units PLACE .
Box Trifecta: 1, 2, 7, 13, 14, 18 (25%)

Sydney R4 – The Pago Pago

Written By is ‘all the rage’ here – rightly so, being the Blue Diamond winner.
That said, he’s running this way of going for the 1st time.
He’s the one to beat, no doubt, & with the ‘Money Back’ option, I can fully understand someone betting on him to win the race – just not me!
Reasoning: Traditionally, the Blue Diamond winner struggles to back up in Sydney & win the Golden Slipper. That winner generally comes from the Sydney 2 yr Olds.

For this reason, I’m looking through this field to see a potential ‘Slipper Horse’. When doing so, we need to assess the Sydney Trainers 1st IMHO – the top one’s. I include Cummings in this list, not because I think he’s a ‘top’ trainer, but because he works for Godolphin. Add to him Snowden, Waller & Hawkes (Waterhouse doesn’t have a runner in this race). I do like Perry but don’t consider his runner up to these.
I’m looking for something to BEAT the favourite & WIN the race .
That runner for me is Spin (No5). I’m prepared to risk 6 Units the WIN on him, thinking he’ll run a PLACE & I’ll get my money back - $6 Powered on Sportsbet. I’m also going to have a small wager on Waller’s runner Zousain , on breeding, 1 x 3 Units.

Backing: Spin 6 Units Win , Zousain 1 x 3 Units .
Exacta: 5 / 1, 9 (500%)
Trifecta: 1, 5 / 1, 5 / Field (100%)

Melbourne – Flemington R7

I’ve chosen this race as the only race @ Headquarters I want to bet on. The Blamey only has 5 runners, so for me, I can’t bet on that race. This race looks an interesting one, with a good mix of experienced ‘2nd tier’ Gallopers involved.

I like Sovereign Nation as a horse & he is worth serious thought in this race, as is the Stablemate – Seaburge . The Hayes Stable is having an amazing run at the moment & who is to say that won’t continue? I’ve settled on one here that I really want to see over the entire Autumn & into the Winter. I’ve got a feeling we will see this one in Sydney throughout The Championships if he runs well here & I’m willing to gamble on him, that he will – No 7 Mask of Time . He’s a French Galloper that has had his only Australian Start running 4th in the Toorak Handicap in Mid-October last year.

He’s a ‘go back & run on’ type horse, & as such, I think Flemington’s straight will suit him down to the ground! Don’t worry that he’s 1st Up, he’s been placed 3 of 4 (the other 4th in previous start), 1st Up. He just might be in for a big Autumn & the $16 ENHANCED is very nice, as is the $3.80 the PLACE . Backing him 8)

Backing: Mask of Time 1 x 4 Units.
Box Trifecta: 1, 2, 3, 4, 7, 12 (25%)

OK, there you have it Lads.
God, I hope this week is a better one than last, otherwise I might need to give the game away!
Happy Punting! :lol:

Preview Posted 10:00pm Thursday 22/03/2018

Saturday 24/03/2018

A better result last week – no winners but a few well-placed Place Bets help the ‘Bank’ look a bit healthier.
The RAIN appears to have come in Sydney & looks to be continuing until Saturday. This will undoubtedly impact any outlays One might take this week. It would be prudent to wait until the Day to make any investments. But that is not what I am here for, is it?
So, let’s have a ‘Captain’ at this week’s Fields… 8)

Sydney R7 – The Golden Slipper

As always, this is a very difficult race. Any 2 yr old race is difficult to assess. Personally, I don’t believe a 2 yr old race should carry such a big ‘purse’ – but it does.

I have followed ‘Practical Punting’ for many years & I have been a ‘disciple’ of The Optimist during this time – particularly in Sydney Racing. He was/is a firm believer that at Rosehill over 1200m, Horses rarely win from outside Gate 10. This is true for a Dry Track, but I am not so sure in Wet Ground, but I will ‘run with it’. Remembering that 2 of the Emergencies are drawn between 1 & 10, that brings No 12 Oohood & No 15 Seabrook into the ‘mix’. That leaves: 1, 2, 3, 6, 7, 8, 10, 12, 14, 15

Written By is the clear favourite, despite being on ‘the wrong leg’ last week in his narrow victory. Having watched the 2 x Races together (TAB had them split screened) from last week, the Colts were quicker. That said, only 3 horses in history have won the Pago Pago/Golden Slipper Double – the last being a ‘Mud Runner’ Phelan Ready (2009) & before him Stratum (2005). Interestingly, Written By is the ONLY runner to have run on a Heavy & he won that. Definitely a PLACE Bet @ the $2 on Thursday.

A wise man once told me, many years ago, “A good Colt will beat a good Filly, every time.” He did so in 1991 when Tierce won the race. I applied this strategy the following year & Burst (a filly) won the race!
So much for that strategy.

I don’t really like the race this year, I think it’s really hard. I was a fan of Spin, having backed it last week – don’t think he’ll get a run & his Gate is bad anyway. If I am prepared to back him, then I must be prepared to take the Skyline winner No 2 Santos, having beaten Spin, 2 weeks ago. Ticks the Jockey, Trainer & Gate ‘boxes’. He also has won a TRAIL on Heavy Ground, at the $12 Powered & $3.30 Place , happy to ‘have a play’ 2 x 5 Units, with a saver on the fav.

Backing: Santos 2 x 5 Units, Written By 3 Units Place (@ Evens or Better)
Pick 4: 1, 2, 3 / 1, 2, 3 / Field / Field ( 2% )

Sydney R8 – The Galaxy

Really want to back a long shot & proven ‘Mud Lark’ here in No 1 Le Romain .
He’s placed 16 of 21 starts including 2-3-0 from 6 starts on the Heavy & 3 placings from 3 on the Soft.
He is 1st Up, but he’s placed 5 from 5 1st Up, with 2 x wins. He’ll do me – already got him $34 Enhanced on Ladbrokes & $5.50 Place on UBET . Happy to get all over him 1 x 5 Units & might even back up more on the Day.

Backing: Le Romain 1 x 5 Units

Sydney R4 – The Ranvet Stakes

I said 2 weeks ago that I though The Taj Mahal would be very competitive in this race & I still think that. Having said that I want to back 2 horses in the race, it & Ventura Storm .

Ventura Storm ran really well (better than expected IMHO) in the Australian Cup to be narrowly beaten into 3rd – he was the ‘run on’ horse in the race & he loves Soft Ground, having won 3 from 5. He’s good value @ $17 Enhanced & the $3.40 is acceptable the Place too. Backing him 1 x 5 Units. Sticking with Taj, but concede his form on Wet going is questionable & he is a risk.
Gallo Chop loves the wet but he’s under the Odds IMHO – never going to take Odds On with him. He’s an under-performer in a similar vain to Tom Melbourne IMHO, I can’t have him.

Backing: Ventura Storm 1 x 5 Units & The Taj Mahal 4 Win Units.
Trifecta: 2, 8 / 2, 8 / 1, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 9 ( 150% )

Sydney R6 – The Rosehill Guineas

WOW, what a race this is! It is so difficult to pick a winner, with many chances. That should be good for us, as the prices should be decent – it’s about $5 the Field on Thursday night, with only 4 runners under Double Figures! That bodes well for us.

Ace High ran a very good 4th in the Randwick Guineas last start & he looks on track for the ATC Derby.
I am prepared to risk him in this race because his Wet Track form is ordinary. I concede if the track rating improves on the day, then he can win, but as I write this, I can’t have him. There are a few Kiwi visitors in the race & they always seem to go well at this Carnival. The best of them looks to be No 2 Vin De Dance , having won their Derby over there, but $6? Not for me. The Kiwi runner ‘on the rise’ looks to be No 19 Mongolian Marshal , I could entertain a small wager on him for ‘entertainment value’.

Cliff’s Edge ran beautifully last Friday night, spanking his opposition. Can he back up? Time will tell, but again, in such an open race, he’s short enough @ 6/1. As always, Waller holds the key to a race like this, with so many runners: 6, 8 10, 11, 16.

The speed map suggests Cliff’s Edge leads, with Ace High pushing forward, with Vin De Dance & Mission Hill handy. If Cliff’s Edge gets a ‘soft’ lead in front, they might not be able to catch him in the straight. I’m thinking that perhaps the ‘run on’ horses might find it difficult to run down the leaders in the race, unless they go ‘crazy’ up front (doubtful). With this in mind, I don’t think Kaonic can win under these conditions.
I do think the Melbourne horse Villermont may well get the run of the race, just behind the speed. Blake Shin in the seat is a BIG Bonus for it, so at the Powered $17 & the $4 Place, I’ll take him 1 x 5 Units & I’ll back Cliff’s Edge, 4 Units Win, to hang on.

Backing: Cliff’s Edge Win 4 Units, Villermont 1 x 5 Units.
Box Trifecta: 1, 4, 8, 9, 13, 19 ( 35% )

Melbourne R7 – The Mornington Cup

The winner of this race gets Ballot Exemption into the Caulfield Cup, later in the year.
The Weir runner Kings will Dream is the ‘shorty’ here. With his 5 straight wins, including 4 this preparation, the short quote of 6/4 is unsurprising, but I can’t take him. The Top Weight ran in the Caulfield Cup last year, running 4th but carried only 50kgs, a massive 10 kgs less than in this race!

Another Weir runner Bondeiger , is certainly worth entertaining a Bet. He’s won his last 3 starts, including the Launceston Cup. He’s going to get a cosy run near the back of the field & you know he’ll run on. 7/1 is short enough, but if we could get $10, I’d back him E/Way. 8)

I’ve settled on the Lloyd Williams horse, No 12 Harrison .
He buys Overseas Horses specifically for the Cups. With the prize of an automatic entry into the Caulfield Cup, who is to doubt that this one can’t beat a pretty weak field here. I take a ‘lead’ from the scratching of stablemate Foundry & am prepared the back him 1 out @ the $17 & $4.60 on UBET.

Backing: Harrison 1 x 4 Units.

There we are Lads, another hopeful Assessment of the GG’s.
Enjoy what should be a fantastic Day’s Racing, despite the expected Wet Track.
Oakbank next week… :D

Preview Posted 9:45am Saturday 31/03/2018

Saturday 31/03/2018

Good Morning fellow Punters… I am writing this week’s preview sitting in the glorious sunshine, under a dome shade, next to the 600m pole @ Oakbank Racecourse. It would be fair to say that I have had a ‘slow’ start to the Punt this Autumn & I could do with a ‘big’ day, here @ The Races!
As we all know by now, Winx is staying here in Australia, rather than going to Royal Ascot to take on the best in Europe. Personally, as a race fan, I am a little disappointed by this – but I understand the decision made by connections to try for an unprecedented 4th Cox Plate. That should be fun to watch in the Spring.

To more pressing matters. It’s fair to say that the Public Holiday yesterday allowed me greater time to do the Form this week & watch some replays & recorded TV shows from Sky & Racing.com.

Sydney Race 6 – The Tancred Stakes (former BMW)

I read a ‘tweet’ with interest during the week written by renowned Form Analyst & Professional Punter Dominic Berne. He stated that since this race has followed the Ranvet, 1 week later, no horse has run in the Ranvet & backed up & won this race. With such a small field, I am happy to listen to this advice & bet around it. As such, Almandin must be given a big show of winning the race but $2.90 is very short. As always, I’m looking for some better value & have settled on the Japanese runner, Ambitious. Not sure he’ll get the fast pace up front he needs to show his best, but his 4th in the Teno Show, carrying 1 kgs less, reads well for this. His run in the Australian Cup wasn’t too bad considering & @ the $3.60 the Place, I’m happy to have a small wager on him, 1 x 5 Units.

Backing: Ambitious 1 x 5 Units.

Sydney Race 7 – The Vinery Stud Stakes

This race is a cracker! Best race on the card & the 5/1 the field is a reflection of the quality of the race. Personally, I think the favourite Unforgotten is a ‘false favourite’. The forgotten runner is the Top-weight, Aloisia – she’s quality & don’t be surprised if she goes well here, despite the wide gate. I have been a Hiyaam fan for 6 months now & her effort to ‘come again’ at the end of the race last week & run 2nd was a good effort. Can she back up? Most of the favoured runners are drawn out in the race. I think it’s important to look for proven distance types. Luvaluva has been scratched & I actually thought she could win the race. I’ve settled on No. 12 All Too Soon. Good Jockey, good Trainer. From the Gate, I expect her to go back. She’s a nice ‘run on’ type Filly & I think she’ll go well in the Australian Oaks in 2 weeks. She’s $15 for the Oaks & $16 today. With that in mind, I’m backing her to run well today – 1 x 4 Units, in a very open race.

Backing: All Too Soon 1 x 4 Units

Sydney Race 2 - The Neville Selwood Stakes

I’m a fan of the Godolphin runner Tally & I’m just backing him @ the price. He’s had 2 runs back & 3rd up, I think he can fire with Angland in the seat. I like this race as a Trifecta Race too.

Backing Tally: 1 x 4 Units
Box Trifecta: 1, 3, 6, 9, 11

Melbourne Race 8 – Victoria Handicap

This race ‘maps’ like it will be a fast run affair up front. As such I’m looking for a ‘run on’ horse to hit the line hard. I have listened to ‘Hutchy’ on Get On & he mentioned 2 x horses; So Si Bon & Violate. With the scratching, Violate gets a run & I’m backing him. He’ll be doing his best work in the last 150m & if he can get out, might just get up. Happy to back him 1 x 5 Units.

Backing: Violate 1 x 5 Units.

Oakbank Comment …

As always, Oakbank is a difficult proposition – it’s always prudent to look for runners that have run here, won here or are trained here.

Oakbank Race 8 – Oakbank Stakes

I will be backing 2 horses here; No. 1 Heart of a Lion & No. 9 Nipperkin.
Lloyd Kennewell is a great local trainer & Heart of a Lion has reasonable formlines, while Nipperkin is trained on track.

Backing: Heart of a Lion 2 x 4 Units & Nipperkin 1 x 3 Units

Oakbank Race 5 – The Great Eastern Steeplechase

Disappointing that only 5 runners will contest the race. Zed Em won the Von Dousa 2 weeks ago reasonably comfortably but he’s Odds On. I’ll be backing the Paddy Payne runner, Top-weight No Song No Supper @ 6/1.

Backing: No Song No Supper 5 Units Win

Oakbank Race 7 – Country Cup
I looked at this race for some time yesterday & settled on No. 4 Unrealistic @ the price. I think we’ll get better on the Tote, so prepared to wait but the Powered $9 with Sportsbet is OK. I like the $2.70 on Ubet the Place, so happy to load up here, 3 x 7 Units.

Backing: Unrealistic 3 x 7 Units.

Oakbank Quaddie: 1,2,6,9 / 1,3,4,7,11 / 1,5,9,10 / 2,6,11 (20%)

So, there it is Lads – another attempt at a small fortune ;)
Until next week, Enjoy a great day on the punt.
If you are up here @ Oakbank, come & say Hi – I’m at the 600m Pole 
Happy Punting…

What a good day on the Punt... have won back all that I've lost this Autumn!
Abebe @ $25
Spright @ $15
Heart of a Lion @ $10

& a number of Place getters

Left before the last

Preview Posted 9:40pm Friday 06/04/2018

Saturday 07/04/2018

I write this as a Punter thankful for a couple of good priced winners & place getters last week @ Oakbank that has made the ‘bank’ look far healthier than in previous weeks! Sometimes such Days on the Punt can be fraudulent, as they keep you interested enough to keep on chasing the ‘Big’ payouts. That said, Eric Musgrove has been very helpful in ‘Paying for the Day’ in recent times. I backed Abebe in the Von Dousa & ‘did my dough’ but recouped plenty last week back over the Hurdles. Anyway, enough of the Post Mortums…

What a huge Day tomorrow is in Sydney – looks like the weather will be good too, making the Racing fair & a true reflection of ability this year, which is pleasing! … 4 x Group 1s, 1 x Group 2 & 4 x Group 3s, plus the Country Championships Final – every race with strong fields & plenty of interest. So, to it…

Sydney Race 4 – Country Championships

I don’t usually bet on these types of races but by chance I ‘spied’ a Tweet from Paul Messara on Wednesday morning, suggesting that his runner finally drew a Gate, & ‘Gator’ retweeted with “… stupid price”. That is good enough ‘Oil’ for me & I jumped right in, No. 2 Caerless Choice . At the enhanced $14 on offer & the $3.60 Place is nice too. His record at the distance is good (3 from 5 placed including 2 wins), has Bell in the seat & meets the Top-weight 1.5kgs better for last start. He’ll do me, 1 x 4 Units.

Backing: Caerless Choice 1 x 4 Units

Sydney Race 7 - The Australian Derby

This is an excellent example of the race, this year. As I said, the good weather makes it much more even this year & I am looking forward to watching the race. I was taken by the Kiwi, Vin De Dance last start & I backed him early in the week, enhanced at $11 & $3.30 Place, as I thought the prices were good. He should get a ‘gem’ run from the gate & you know he’ll run the journey – based on his NZ Derby victory. I can see a similar situation unfolding here, where he’ll be there ‘coming over the rise’ in the straight & maybe he’ll be able to kick away.

The Victoria Derby winner Ace High is the obvious danger & all things being equal, should run in the top 3 – Even Money the Place would be a very good bet on him. Belfast has been ‘ticking along nicely toward this race & has now had a run this way of going – concede him an Eachway chance & don’t dismiss the Waller runner Tangled – that was a great run previously in the Rosehill Guineas from an outside gate.

Backing: Vin De Dance 1 x 5 Units; Belfast 1 x 4 Units
Box Trifecta: 1, 2, 3, 7, 12, 14 (30%)

Sydney Race 5 – The Chairman’s Quality

I was told many years ago that you should always back the Top-weight in a ‘Quality’. I see no reason to waiver from that view here. Ventura Storm ran a great 3rd in the Australian Cup at WFA. The $13 Enhanced is very juicy & I reckon the $3.40 the Place is an absolute ‘gift’! Happy to back him 1 x 5 Units. I also reckon this is a good Trifecta & Pick 4 Race to bet into.

Backing: Ventura Storm 1 x 4 Units
Box Trifecta: 1, 2, 3, 7, 8, 11 (30%)
Pick 4: 1, 3, 7 /1, 3, 7, 8/ Field / Field (2%)


Sydney Race 8 – The TJ Smith

Redzel is a justified favourite & all things considered, should win. But 6/4 is too short for me. I like a bit of a ‘roughy’ in this race – looking for an upset, but tipping it to run a Place; No. 12 Trapeze Artist .
He might get a bit of cover from this gate & have the last run at them. Happy to gamble 1 x 4 Units.

Backing: Trapeze Artist 1 x 4 Units.
Quinella: 1, 12 for 3 Units
Exacta: 12 / 1 for 2 Units

Sydney Race 9 – The Doncaster Mile

The wraps on Kementari have been big & rightly so, but I’m not sure he can run out a strong 1600m & at the short quote, am prepared to risk him to win. Tom Melbourne just has to be a PLACE Bet, doesn’t he? He’s Group 1 Placed x 3 times over the Mile & the fact he’s $4.70 the Place on Ladbrokes, I just have to have a ticket. That said, looking for the winner, I think Happy Clapper will get the run of the race & is likely to look the winner at some stage, One would think.

There’s a couple of ‘forgotten runners’ in the race too, IMHO. Egg Tart was considered a ‘World Beater’ not that long ago & she’s ridiculous odds at 40/1. She’s drawn well & has no weight, you could do worse than have a small wager on her Eachway – currently $8.50 the Place.

Another is the Weir runner Tosen Stardom - $34 is well overs here, I have him pegged as a $13 chance! Last start was a ‘forgive run’ IMHO & Williams will give him every chance from the middle of the field. Plenty of chances, but happy to follow my instinct here.

Backing: Tosen Stardom 1 x 3 Units; Tom Melbourne 3 Units Place; Happy Clapper 3 Units Win
Box Trifecta: 1, 2, 3, 8, 9, 12 (30%)

What a great day’s racing to enjoy, Lads.
Good Luck & Happy Punting…

Spring has Sprung... thinking of contributing Previews again this year.
Consensus?

Posted: (Wednesday 12/09/2018 - 9pm)

As has been the tradition over the past couple of years, I have returned to provide my thoughts on the Spring Racing for 2018 – a year that could well see history made by the ‘Great Mare’ Winx. Even I, have resorted to calling her ‘Great’ – as you may already know, that Title (from my perspective anyway) was always bestowed upon the ‘Great’ Let’s Elope & the ‘Greater’ Sunline & the ‘Greatest’ Makybe Diva... but if Winx becomes the only horse in history to win 4 Cox Plates in a month or so, she must surely be ‘crowned’ not only the ‘Greatest of All Mares’, but perhaps the ‘Greatest Horse of All Time’ (in Australia), doesn’t she? We will see. 8)

But that’s a while away yet, & there is undoubtedly some fantastic Racing to enjoy before the big 3 ‘Classics’ in a matter of months.

The Cups weights came out this week, with arguably the 2nd best horse in the Country, Humidor, at the top of the weights for both races. 58kgs is 1 kg below WFA. Personally, I think his best chance is over the 2400m of the Caulfield Cup, rather than the Flemington Classic, but I think he will be targeted for the McKinnon Stakes on the final day of the Flemington Carnival. He is a ‘Flemington Horse’ for mine, & his Australian Cup victory, coupled with his close 2nd to the Mare in last year’s Cox Plate (beaten ½ a length) means the 2000m McKinnon is ideal for him. That said, he could win the Caulfield Cup with the right run – his win @ WFA 2 weeks ago shows he is no ‘slouch’ at Caulfield.

At this early stage, I think the Lloyd Williams runner Homesman is an excellent chance in that race – he’s weighted nicely @ 6kgs under WFA with 53kgs & 2400m is his ‘pet’ distance. I backed him last week & that was a good run to finish 2nd – remembering that the winner of that race gets an automatic Caulfield Cup start, I reckon he’s being set for that race, & the stable would’ve liked to have won the race. The current $26 & $7.25 is a nice early price for a horse that I think will be much shorter on the day – I’ve already taken him in Cups Doubles & in the CC.

WOW – that’s some rant to start the Spring :roll: … better get on with this week’s Preview!

I’ll be honest & state from the outset that I have been struggling on the punt over the past 4 weeks – 1 winning day, 2 shockingly bad days & 1 break even day (last week)… not exactly ‘on fire’ at the minute. But as with all ‘Punters’ there’s always another day & hopefully this week will be a good one…
Flemington & Randwick are the Venues for this week:

Flemington R7 – Makybe Diva

This is an interesting race over the ‘Metric Mile’. There are big ‘wraps’ on the 1st starter here in Tosen Basil, as a genuine contender for the Melbourne Cup. This Weir runner is a Japanese import that hasn’t run in over 4 months – this is probably too short for him, having not run over a distance less than 2000m in his last 10 starts – happy to leave him out in this race, but interested to see how he goes & my gut feeling is he will enjoy the open spaces of ‘Headquarters’.

5 of the 12 runners are 2nd Up (No. 1,5,6,8,9) of these, No 1 Happy Clapper has a good 2nd up record & a great Mile record, as has No 6 Comin’ Through but the question on him is running ‘left-handed’ for the 1st time. That said, the length of the Flemington straight should compensate for any ‘wrong foot’ issues that may arise – he’s well worth considering in this race.

No 10 Kings Will Dream is a horse ‘on the rise’. His run for 3rd in the Memsie, behind the stable mate Humidor, was full of merit. Is he too short for this race? I think he is at the minute, but if we could get $2 the Place, he’s a great Place chance IMHO.

Humidor & Kementari the ‘class’ in the race, without doubt. Along with Happy Clapper, the likely winner should come from these 3. At the price, I have to back Happy Clapper – Powered $8 & $2.35.

Backing: No 1 Happy Clapper for 2 x 5 Units.
Exacta: 1 / 3 for 3 Units
Pick 4: 1, 3 / 1, 3, 6, 10, 11 / 1, 3, 6, 10, 11 / Field for 10%

Flemington R4 – Antler Luggage Plate

The ‘spruk’ on No 3 Brutal is enormous. Seeing IS believing, I guess, & he absolutely ‘spanked’ his opposition 1st up at Caulfield & then ran down the leader @ The Valley to score by ½ a length. I can’t back him @ the short quote, but I will be watching with great interest to see how he copes with the 7 Furlongs of this race. He could be anything, but it’s still very ‘early doors’ with him. Good luck to you if you back him & he wins, but I’m prepared to watch him at this stage.

Looking for something at a price, I would be prepared to gamble on the Hayes runners No. 2 & 16 as Place propositions here, particularly No 16 Qafila. She ran really well 1st up & the runner up in that race ran well, winning last start. I am concerned about her ‘strike rate’ - 5 starts & only 1 placing (as a 2yr old) before her 1st up run is a worry, but she might be a filly that ‘beefs up’ & comes back as a better 3 yr old. There’s been a bit of money for her, having come in from $14 to $12 during the week, so a gamble on her is not a bad prospect. The gate is a concern, but there is a few inside her & the stablemate outside her that might give her some cover coming around the turn, & I can see her swinging out toward the centre of the track between the 2 furlong & 300m mark, finishing off the race with a strong finish.

Backing: No 16 Qafila for 1 x 4 Units
Box Trifecta: 2, 3, 6, 13, 16 for 50%

Flemington R6 – Let’s Elope Stakes

This is a really good race for the Mares over 7 furlongs. Bella Martini has the form reference having run 4th behind last week’s winner Land of Plenty, but I think there is one here that is way over the odds at $14 & $4.20, in No 7 Samovare. Her record at the distance, track & trip, & 2nd up is very good. The price is too juicy to avoid & I am happy to take the gamble on her.

Backing: No 7 Samovare for 1 x 4 Units

Flemington R3 – The Sofitel

Nice 12 horse field here for a good quality race over 7 Furlongs for the Males. I am surprised by the price on offer for the Weir runner Cliff’s Edge. $12 (Powered) & $3.30 is too good to refuse. I heard ‘Gator’ on Get On last week state that many of the Weir runners are ‘sling-shotting 2nd up’ – he’s been in rare form tipping-wise, so that (along with the price) is good enough for me.

Backing: No 5 Cliff’s Edge 1 x 5 Units

Randwick R7 – Tea Rose Stakes

Can the ‘Female Tom Melbourne’, Oohood, finally break her ‘duck’? Just like ‘Tommy’, $2.50 (6/4) the Place, looks a good price on her. If she stays a ‘Maiden’, can she run in ‘The Kosiosko’? LOL…
I can’t have her, she had every chance last start but failed to produce when it counted – some horses just find it hard to win. Personally, I think that once she ‘cracks it’ for a win, she may well keep doing so – but I’m prepared to wait until that happens, that said, I concede her a Place chance for sure.

Again, the Hayes runner, No. 7 Futooh is a nice price here at $13 (Powered) & $3.40. Her run in the Silver Shadow was good, beaten less than a length. I have the same opinion here as for Qafila - she might be a filly that ‘beefs up’ & comes back as a better 3 yr old. Invariably, these ‘colours’ run well for this stable, with many quality horses over the years. At the price, happy to back her in a VERY OPEN Filly’s race.

Backing: No 7 Futooh 1 x 4 Units
Box Trifecta: 2, 3, 7, 9, 10, 13 for 35%

Randwick R4 – The Shorts

Backed Redzel last start for the win after he ‘drifted’ to 6/4 ($2.50) Powered – just thought he was too good a price & a class above the field on that occasion. Different story here, I think, for the following reasons; Being set for The Everest next start, out to 5 ½ Furlongs, Won’t be able to ‘sit’ on the Leader, as Ball of Muscle will make it a fast pace out in front. Having said all that, he IS the one to beat, but Odds On again? Will he drift again? If he gets out to 6/4 again, then I’ll ‘back up’ on him – don’t think that will happen this time, I expect him to start at best, $1.90.

Brave Smash is the one to take him on at the price, I think. Bowman engaged is a big plus, as is the gate (5) & his racing ‘pattern’. He’ll get the last crack at them. Is the distance too short? I would’ve liked another 100m to be more confident of a win, but Win & Place, he’s the one for me at $10 (Powered) & $2.15.

Backing: No 2 Brave Smash for 1 x 5 Units
Exacta: 2 / 1 for 4 Units

There we go Lads, also posted early (Wednesday Night) so hopefully the prices ‘hold up’ & no scratchings occur. Looking forward to another enjoyable few hours in the Unley UBET Agency, betting on my phone – due to the ‘Money Back’ options.

Enjoy the Day, let’s hope for a couple of winners.
It’s going to be another long, enjoyable Spring Carnival – no doubt!
Giddy Up!

How much have you outlayed in that lot there LPH ?

I'm the punter this week in our syndicate and I have $195 at my disposal.

I did place a few personal multi's on last night and was going to put a few more on today, I was toying with Happy Clapper as he is generally around the mark and I rate Zahra as a jockey, I think I'll find something today for him.

So far:

MR7 & 8: Humidor (EW) into Marcel from Madrid (EW)
SR6, 7 & 8: Winx (W) into Pretty in Pink (EW) into Avilius (W)
AR4 & 5: Light 'n' Fire (EW) into Trembling (EW)

Hey, Lightning...

For ease of conversion, I will use 1 Unit = $10.
That way with the Multiples (Quin,Exact,Tri,P4) its easy to convert the cost...

Just for fun, I thought I'd run a Spreadsheet too, updating the % returns per week - that way you can all 'bag' me @ the end of the Spring :oops:
(Happy to put my 'credibility' on the line :roll: )

BTW, Redzel has been scratched in Sydney today, so no Exacta bet with Brave Smash & the price on Brave Smash got hammered due to a number of scratchings in the race.
Good Luck today, hope you get your $195 back :D

22/09/2018 (Posted 7:45pm Thursday)

OMG… an absolute ‘Barry Crocker’ last week, proving once again, that as a Tipster I can get it horribly wrong at times. Seriously considered a ‘Roman Bath’ last Saturday night! :oops:

It is days like that, that seriously dent a Punter’s confidence & make him question whether or not it is wise to continue to pursue this past time! But, as always, there are more races this Saturday to peruse… And so it is to Caulfield & Rosehill that I venture this week – somewhat ‘gun shy’ it has to be said!

I’m thinking it could be a very successful day for Godolphin, particularly in Melbourne, but at both venues. The big fields have me concerned at Caulfield & the small fields in Sydney have ruined any decent win/place value priced runners – for these reasons I’ve only focussed on the 3 main races of the Day.

Caulfield Race 8 – Sir Rupert Clarke

Huge field to contest this very interesting race. Godolphin hold the keys to the race IMHO.

Osbourne Bulls ran really well fresh & his 2nd up record is superb. I think he’s likely to get a good ‘cart’ into the race & if Williams can get him in clear running, he’ll go very close to winning the race. $2.40 (Ubet) the Place is pretty good odds but we might get better on the day - $2.60 perhaps? The stable mate Home of the Brave is the likely leader in the race & should set a steady tempo up front.

I do like the Hawkes runner Showtime , at the value. Forgive his last run & go on the previous win here in the PJ Lawence Stakes, beating Hartnell. Gate 1 is a concern, in terms of being able to get clear passage around the turn, but recent history at Caulfield suggests the inside IS an advantage, so he’s worth a small gamble at $17 (Powered) & $4.40 the Place (Ubet)

Jungle Cat is a very interesting runner. Trainer has sent a number of horses out here early this year & we can take a lead from that, over the Spring. Godolphin are clearly VERY serious about winning our ‘Majors’ & dominating the Carnivals. 3 x Trainers (Cummings, Appleby & the ‘Shiek) will have an all-out assault over the next few months, & you can throw in Michael Freedman too!

Backing: Osbourne Bulls 16 Units the Place & Showtime 1 x 3 Units
Box Trifecta: 1, 2, 3, 4, 8, 13 for (35%)

Caulfield Race 7 – The Bendigo Bank Cup (The Naturalism Stakes)

I’m pretty sure the winner of this race gets an exemption from the ballot for the Caulfield Cup. That suggests that a number of contenders for that race would be keen to win this. As a result, I would say the winner will come from Nos 1, 3, 5, 10 & 13 .

Folkswood is 1st up but don’t be put off by that – he won the Cranbourne Cup over 2000m last time in. He has to go into all multiples. As you know, I am a big fan of the Mare, Hiyaam . She’s been good to me, winning at nice prices, & she owes me nothing. That said, her last run was poor but she was wide & The Valley is not a place you want to be caught wide at.

I have a sneaky suspicion that the Weir runner, Yogi , is going to win a good quality race this Spring. This may not be it, but I certainly concede it a place chance, at least. His form is good, he’s 3rd up & he drops weight here. The gate is the concern on Saturday, but watch out for him in something like an Underwood in 2 weeks or even a Lexus @ Flemington on Derby Day, at a price.

I have settled on Our Venice Beach at $8.50 (Powered) & $2.90 (Ubet). Love backing Lloyd Williams’ runners in anything above 1800m because you just know they will be fit & they generally like to run in the front 5 or 6 runners, so they make their own luck. He’ll do me at the price, would love 2/1 the place on the day!

Backing: Our Venice Beach 2 x 5 Units
Pick 4: 1, 5, 10 / 1, 5, 10 / 1, 3, 5, 10, 11, 13, 18 / Field (6%) – 3 Units

Rosehill Race 7 – The Golden Rose

Danawi is the obvious leader in the race. If he goes ‘gang-busters’ up front, it will set up the finish for those back in the field, in; Graf, Seabrook, The Autumn Sun & Lean Mean Machine.

Seabrook won the Champagne in the Autumn (1600m), after running a creditable 5th in the Golden Slipper, here at Rosehill. There are only 3 horses (Danawi, Seabrook & The Autumn Sun) that have won over 1350m. Is that a significant statistic? I think it is.

Can the Filly beat the Colts? If this was in Melbourne, I would say no question, as the Melbourne crop of fillies are better than the colts. In Sydney? At the price, I’m going to back her to do it.

I can see Santos hitting the front with a Furlong to go in the race, & Seabrook coming hard with The Autumn Sun down the outside. Seabrook at $11 Powered & $3 the Place is the value in the race.

Backing: Seabrook 2 x 7 Units
Quinella: 2, 6, 11 for 3 Units (cost 9 Units)
Exacta: 2 / 11 for 4 Units
Box Trifecta: 1, 2, 3, 6, 11 for (50%)

There you go Lads – hoping that I get a couple of collects THIS week, if for no other reason than to rebuild a bit of confidence for the weeks to come. Not to mention the Bank!
Enjoy the Day.
I’m attending the SANFL Grand Final on Sunday – 1st one for 5 years. 8)
Looking forward to a big day on the piss with the Boy!
Come say Hello - look for the 'No 19' at the Cathedral End ;)

Am attending for the 1st time since the AFL Reserves.
Looking forward to it - 1st one where my son can join me in the drinking!
Good Luck to both sets of supporters - Enjoy the Day.

28, 29 & 30/09/2018 (Posted 8:10pm Thursday 27/09/2018)

This is becoming rather embarrassing. I am not sure you would actually want to read (or worse, heed) anything I have to say about Horse Racing at this point! Not only has my pride & self-confidence been severely dented, but my wallet has copped a ‘pasting’ in the past 2 weeks. :oops:

Desperate times, call for desperate measures. So, I think it only fair that I preview all 3 Major Venues, this week. As I don’t really give a toss about the AFL Grand Final, there will be a good chance that I will be one of only a handful of people in the Unley UBET Agency this Saturday. I might even decide not to go & just punt from home, this week, certainly on Sunday at Caulfield.

Interestingly, I heard this morning on Radio TAB that we can get ‘better odds’ with them if we bet between certain hours. I believe that Friday (12 noon to 4pm) & both Saturday & Sunday (8am to 12pm) they offer ‘enhanced prices’ on win bets. With the ‘money back’ option still applicable on the 1st 6 races at the venues, might be worth holding off on outlays until then?

Anyway, FWIW, here is this week’s Preview…

Friday: The Valley – MR 7 – The Moir Stakes 1000m

This is a very interesting sprint race. I wonder if some of the ‘slot holders’ for The Everest may be ruing getting in too early for their chosen runners? There’s a couple of very good sprinters in this race that perhaps should be in the Sydney race. This is a hot field & a very open race if you look beyond the favourite, Nature Strip - the ‘spruk’ horse. TBF, it’s really hard to put a ‘knock’ on him with his record, particularly running a Track Record here last start. Is $2.20 the right price, though, considering the opposition in the race?

It’s pretty hard to ignore Ball Of Muscle ’s current form & he absolutely loves the 5 furlongs, although he hasn’t won on this track – 2 starts for a 2nd. The fact that he likely leads the race from Gate 4, means he’s a genuine contender in the race & personally I think a top 5 Place is a given. $3.40 the Place at present is possibly just that, a ‘gift’.

Houtzen has a perfect 2nd up record (3 starts for 3 wins) & a good record here at The Valley (3:1-1-1). Add to that an excellent distance record as well & she might be the Win Bet in the race at $6.50.

Brave Smash had no luck in Sydney last start (I backed him, sadly) where he just couldn’t get out until very late. He’s still on the path to The Everest, so I think he’s a winning hope if they go crazy up front. The other Weir runner, Voodoo Lad , is another who could get up at a decent price & I give Faatinah a hope of a ‘boilover’ result, too. But you can’t back them all, can you?

I’ve settled on Ball Of Muscle at the price. I’m hoping he gets a ‘breather’ up front at some stage & can hold off the fast finishing Nature Strip & the backmarkers. $15 Powered is too juicy & as I said, the 7/2 the Place is almost a gift.

Backing: Ball Of Muscle 1 x 6 Units
Exacta: 3 / 6 for 3 Units
Trifecta: 2, 3, 8 / 2, 3, 6, 8 / Field for 30% (3 Units)

Saturday: Randwick – SR 7 – The Epsom Handicap 1600m

Over time, the Classic Randwick Mile races have been the domain of One, Gai Waterhouse. But I think it’s fair to suggest that the ‘baton’ has been well & truly passed on to Chris Waller in recent times. Gai has two runners in this race & Waller has 8 of the current 20, including the 1st & 2nd favourites!

This race is a Handicap. Only 3 runners have over 53kgs & top weight Hartnell is the only runner over 54kgs, with 57. How interesting that Hugh Bowman is engaged to ride him! He’s 3rd up, so should be ‘cherry ripe’ for this race. I am staggered at the price he opened at ($27) & unsurprisingly that was taken early – he’s now $17. Is he the same horse he was? Probably not, but that’s the best price he’s been in long time & is worth a small wager, particularly Powered at $22 & $5.

Looking beyond Hartnell , I am always loathed to back a Waller horse when he has so many in the field. Invariably I pick the wrong one!

Who leads the race? With such a big field, it’s always difficult to predict where horses will be in running. Tom Melbourne is drawn the ‘carpark’, I’d suggest he goes forward. Religify probably gets to the fence but might need to do some work as Pierata & D’Argento push up underneath. I can see ‘Tommy’ having to do a heap of work early to get outside the leader – pretty sure that’s why he’s the price he is. Hartnell should be forward of mid-field in a nice spot 1 or 2 off the fence. 2 or 3 back.

No. 19 Muraaqeb is a very interesting runner & I think a genuine ‘knock out’ chance. He drops a whopping 10 kgs from his last start win, has a good gate & is 2 from 3 at the Mile. He also has a good record at the track – I really like him to run well for the Hayes stable. It’s a big Class rise from a BM88 to an Epsom but he did run in the All Aged here against quality horses like Trapeze Artist & Le Romain as well as winning here over 1600m, both in the Autumn. He’s a genuine light weight chance in the race, IMHO (not that my opinion has meant much lately! :roll: )

I think D’Argento is a false favourite in this race, personally. If I was going to back one of the ‘shorties’ then it would be Unforgiven or Pierata , for mine. That said, I can’t take those sorts of prices, although $2.10 (UBET) Pierata the place, is a good sound bet – he’s a good horse in good form. I think we’ll get better than that on the day.

Backing: Pierata 7 Units the Place; Hartnell 1 x 3 Units
Box Trifecta: 1, 2, 7, 16, 17, 19 (35%) for 4 Units

Saturday: Randwick – SR 8 – The Metropolitan 2400m

Sin To Win is the leader in the race. I expect the Lloyd Williams horse Midterm to be up there as well, if last start was anything to go by, besides, these UK runners of Lloyd’s like to ‘bowl along’ in free running room, so I expect him to be on the fence sitting 2nd by the time they go around the turn, out of the straight, at Randwick.

I expect Big Duke to be running on solidly at the end of the race & there appears as though there might be some rain about in Sydney – so that will be to his advantage. I can see him coming down the outside at a rate of knots over the last furlong & a half. Currently at $13 Powered & $3.70 (UBET), I think he’s a great chance in the race. You know he’ll get the trip, a cut-up track won’t hurt him & he’s 4th Up. This isn’t his ‘Grand Final’ (like what I did there?) but I think Weir is happy to take the Group 1 status of the race & the good prize money, on his way to ‘bigger things’. I can see him running well in the Caulfield Cup (doing what Tawqeet did over a decade ago) after winning this race.

Backing: Big Duke 3 x 10 Units

Saturday: Randwick – SR 6 – The Flight Stakes 1600m

Is this group of 3 yr old Fillies better than those running in the Thousand Guineas Prelude at Caulfield on Sunday? I would have to say on previous years, Yes. So, this race gives us a look at the probable favoured runners for the Thousand Guineas in a couple of weeks. Miss Fabulass has taken all before her this time in & she’s a genuine star filly, but Even Money? Leave me out.

I’m going to gamble on the Maiden, Oohood , at the price. Her 4th in the Tea Rose wasn’t that bad. I know she’s been costly, having not won a race, but I’m happy to gamble on the $12 Powered & I’d prefer to take the $2.80 the place on her than take the Evens, on the fav.

Backing: Oohood 1 x 6 Units
Box Trifecta: 1, 2, 3, 4, 9 (50%) for 3 Units

Sunday: Caulfield – MR 7 – The Underwood Stakes 1800m

I am a fan of Homesman as you know, having got him at $26 & $7.25 for the Caulfield Cup. As such, I am hopeful he’ll run really well in this race as a lead up. His run in the Feehan at The Valley over the Mile was great, just missing out on the win, beating a good one in Night’s Watch. This race might still be a bit short for him at 1800m, but don’t dismiss him whatever you do.

As I stated last week, Charlie Appleby & Godolphin are deadly serious about taking out our feature races this Spring – Jungle Cat’s win 1st up proved that last week. So, you have to think Blair House should be competitive in this race on Sunday – the price would suggest that Punters feel the same.

Humidor is the Class horse here IMHO. He’s 2nd only to the Greatest Mare (possibly Horse) we’ve ever seen, in terms of WFA quality. He beat Kings Will Dream here 2 starts ago, over the unsuitable 7 furlongs, & that horse is widely tipped as the Caulfield Cup likely winner. That alone has to suggest a bet in him is almost a given, with the extra 2 furlongs being suitable. He’ll get a great sight from the gate & with the rail expected to be back in the true (isn’t it?) he’ll need the same sort of luck he got in that race to get through along the fence & win. I love him as a horse but he’s again way too short for me.

Last year’s winner Bonneval is a silly price at $21 if you ask me. She’ll run well here again, particularly if the track is a bit soft after the expected rain in Melbourne over the weekend. She’s worth an early gamble at that price because I think she’ll be shorter on the day. $4.60 the place is nice little gamble ‘early doors’ too. I don’t think Comin’ Through will run a good 9 furlongs & I’m not sure Caulfield suits this horse either – more a Flemington type IMHO.

Backing: Bonneval (early) 1 x 4 Units
Box Trifecta: 2, 4, 7, 8, 9, 10 (35%) for 4 Units

There you go Lads, perhaps avoid all those & you might do well over the weekend!
Enjoy the racing & the AFL Grand Final this weekend.
Let’s hope I can get something in the kitty!
Back on the Horse?
Just like the Cat in the Warner Bros Cartoon 'Gambling Bug'; "Deal the Cards, Deal the Cards, Deal the Cards!" 8)

Hartnell and Oohood surely made for a better day LPH :)

Went to Morphettville for the Day...

Also backed Santa Anna Lane!
3 straight in Sydney plus $4.60 Place bet on a Weir runner @ Mornington - 4 bets 4 collects!!

Had a great day, but won't be claiming Santa Anna in the tipping collects - still down over the 3 weeks but at least I'm getting SOME back.

Got $13 & $3.10 Oohood
Got $22 & $6 Hartnel
Highlight: collecting the $6 with Livi-something, then going to the next 'stall' & collecting the win dividend off Barrington :lol:
Love taking Bookie's Money 8)
So happy for Oohood's owners & McEvoy
Reckon I got Hartnel's position in the race spot on too 8)

Phew... What a roller coaster this Punting Game is, eh?
The Underwood Trifecta paid $1786.40 on UBET - we get 35% of that, less the 4 Unit outlay.

As I said, I also got Santa Anna Lane yesterday, but he doesn't count in these calculations.
(But he has contributed in no small fashion to my improved well-being & 'bank') 8)

Managed a good weekend, despite a disappointing result on Friday night.
Outlay 60 Units, Return 133.5 Units = 73.5 profit 8)

In 3 weeks, still down 46.5 Units :(
Running Percentage: - 25.8% of outlay :(

So not exactly wallowing in my 'Happy Place' yet, but feeling a fair bit better than this time last week!
Hope you managed to get on at least one of these collects over the week end.
What Odds Homesman now for the Caulfield Cup?
Basically got a 'free' bet on him now with the $26 & $7.25 long gone 8)

Until Thursday Lads...

06/10/2018 (Posted 12:05pm Thursday 04/10/2018)

Welcome to October. The racing is about to get serious – 3yr old classics in 2 States, Caulfield & Mooney Valley Carnivals & plenty of Country Cups. All leading into the 1st 2 weeks in November. Can Winx win her 4th Cox Plate? Will Goldophin dominate the ‘big Spring classics’? Can I claw my way back from the brink of ‘bankruptcy’? All these questions & more will be answered over the next 6 to 7 weeks.

On the later, last week was a good start. I worked out that had I taken a $5 All-Up on the 3 straight winners in Sydney (Santa Anna Lane into Oohood into Hartnell), I would’ve got over $7K back! :evil: This realisation put somewhat of a dampener on my enjoyment of backing those 3 winners, even an All-Up Place ticket would’ve returned 55/1!!! :oops: That said, I am really happy to have got Homesman in the Caulfield Cup at a better price the place than the current $7 the Win! 8) Anyway, enough of the ‘post-mortems’, there’s money to be won this week (fingers crossed). Being down 26% of Turnover is still a fair way behind, but we soldier on.

The better races are in Sydney again this week, as their Spring Carnival enters its culmination next week – as The Everest next Saturday. That race has taken on a whole new ‘complexion’ with scratching & form changes – but we’ll focus a bit more on that in 7 days, as we have plenty to think about for this coming Saturday’s meetings at Randwick & Flemington, respectively. Looks likely to be wet in Sydney.

Randwick – SR 7 The Spring Champion Stakes 2000m

I don’t know about you blokes, but I find these 3 yr old staying races pretty difficult to assess. This race is a set weights race, with the fillies getting 2 kgs relief from their male counterparts. I assume a number of these will continue onward toward the VRC Derby or Oaks in 4 weeks. That would suggest that they either have 1 more run (in Melbourne) or this race is their last before then.

The runners in this race, listed in the Derby are: Thinkin’ Big $7, Aramayo $13, Tarka $13, Mickey Blue Eyes $13, Deal Maker $13, Purple Sector $17, Visao $26, Cloak $51, Irukanji $51, Home Ground $101, with only the 3 horses not quoted; Maid of Heaven, Panzerfaust, Frankly Awesome. Of those 3, Frankly Awesome is well in the market of Saturday ($8.50) & she’s $17 in the VRC Oaks. Panzerfaust is $26 for the Oaks & Maid of Heaven not listed.

The Waterhouse runner, favourite Thinkin’ Big , is the leader in the race. He won 1st Up in the Gloaming, fighting on to hold off his rivals. Taraka ran home hard in that race to fail by 2 ½ lengths – he can turn the tables here & he has won in the wet. That said, racing pattern suggests he goes back & that makes it difficult to make up the ground in wet conditions. But disregard him at your peril.

With a view to who goes on to run well in the VRC Derby, I contend that Visao is the ‘value runner’ here. Maher knows how to train a stayer. The question is if he can handle the wet. I guess that’s why they call it gambling! A small bet on him as a ‘speculator’ at $26 Powered & $5.50. That said, it is probably also prudent to take the Derby price (perhaps for 30% of outlay for that race), 8) as he’s likely to significantly shorten from the $26. I expect him to run well on Saturday – will he deal with the wet?

They will find it hard to get past the leader here, but the price is too short for me.

Backing: Visao 1 x 3 Units
Exacta: 2 / 1 for 3 Units
Pick 4: 1, 2, 8 / 1, 2, 5, 8, 12 / Field / Field (3%) 4 Units

Randwick – SR 6 – The Roman Consul Stakes 1200m

Not much ‘Heavy’ Form to look at here – no winners & only Jonker has been placed (3rd).
Soft? 1, 2 & 4 have all won – with No. 4 Performer also with a 3rd.

So, these stats suggest not much help. Therefore I go looking for another ‘angle’. That angle is winning distance range. This race is over the 6 furlongs, so if we can find a runner that’s won over 7 furlongs, then we have a ‘contender’, in my view – but there are none!
As a result, no bet here for me.

Backing: Throw a dart at the field if you want!

Flemington – MR 5 – The Turnbull Stakes

She just wins, doesn’t she?
Just another benefit race for Winx .
Sit back & watch the awesome Mare tune up for The Cox Plate.

You have to hand it to the VRC – making this race not part of the Quaddie – Sydney would do well to follow suit in future, when a Champion, short priced runner is engaged. Interested to see how Youngstar runs left handed.

Flemington – MR 7 – The Bart Cummings 2500m

This race is the most interesting of the day. The winner is exempt from ballot for the Melbourne Cup. That suggests that this race is fast becoming the ‘locals’ best chance of getting a run in big race. Once again, Lloyd Williams plays a big hand in the likely outcome here, with 3 runners – all of which have a realistic chance of winning. Of the 3, I expect that both Harrison & Our Venice Beach push forward from the barrier & Midterm settles mid-field, 1 off the fence. Our Venice Beach let me down last start, but he gets the better of the 3 Jockeys IMHO, in Ben Melham, for this race. He can win.

Avilius is a serious Cups chance. His 3 runs here in Australia have been really good. He’s disposed of some handy rivals in I am Serious & Brimham Rocks , twice each & giving them weight. I think he’s more likely to win the Caulfield Cup, than the Melbourne Cup – there’s a question mark over his 2 Mile credentials IMHO. He can definitely win this race on Saturday, but at $2.20? I’m prepared to bet against him here.

Yogi was scratched from The Underwood 2 weeks ago, after I suggested he could well win a race like this one on Saturday. Is it too early? Probably, as I think the field here is too good for him. I think he’s more likely to run well in the Geelong Cup or Lexus (on Derby Day), or even the Sandown Cup. He’s too short for this particular race IMHO – should be double figures & $7.50 is not good enough. He does have the minimum weight here, so expect him to be running on from the tail of the field.

The Flemington ‘lover’ is Jaameh , having won his last 2 starts here & at this distance. He should also be running on at the end.

Rising Red is an interesting runner, having run really well in The Naturalism (traditional lead up to Caulfield Cup), the winner Night’s Watch would be challenging Avilius for favourite status here, wouldn’t he? At the price ($15 Powered & $3.50), this fellow might give a sight. He’s only ‘punished’ 0.5 of a kgs for the Naturalism run & he will likely sit in behind the leaders here, getting some protection from the ‘breeze’ along the back straight. The question mark is the extra 100m of this race, but I think he may well run a big race 3rd up.

The Brisbane Winter Carnival has become a good ‘pointer’ to the Spring, in recent years. His win over 2200m there, suggests he is an above average horse. If he runs in the 1st 3 here, then we can expect him to be a Cups runner 8) . Is he good enough to win one of the big Cups? Doubtful, but form plays a big part & he’s the right age (5 yr old) to go well, particularly with a light weight. As we know, the best horse rarely wins these Cups – it’s the best weighted horse that invariably does so. He’s currently $51 for both those races.

Vengeur Masque could be an improver but the gate is a worry – could get stuck out 3 wide out of the straight, so happy to risk but he could be a ‘knock out’ hope.

Backing: Rising Red 1 x 4 Units
Box Trifecta: 1, 2, 3, 6, 9, 10 (35%) 4 Units

Flemington – R8 – The Edward Manifold 1600m

Another difficult 3 yr old race, this time for the fillies. One would think that most of these fillies are being aimed at The Crystal Mile or The Fillies Classic (both over 1600m) or the Vase (2040m) on Cox Plate day – then a number onto The Oaks (2500m) in Cup Week. With this in mind, we need to look at which Jockeys are ‘engaged’ & what distances they’ve been racing over.

As always, I’m looking for value. Hugh Bowman’s mount Oregon Dreamer ran over 1800m last start – sharply up in distance from her previous 2 starts this prep of 7 furlongs. To run 5th of 12 here suggests she’ll take good improvement from that run. She should get a nice run in behind the speed in this race & the drop back in distance might just suit her. Bowman engaged is a BIG plus.

Another one who looks like she’s on a trial to more ‘riches’ over the next few weeks is the Ciaron Maher trained Yulong Meteor . She’ll get back from that poor gate & I expect her to be ‘rattling’ home down the centre of the track over the last 300m. I can see her being a good chance in The Oaks, provided she ‘comes on’ over the next few weeks. $21 Powered & $4.80 is acceptable, but might get better on the day. Anything $5 or greater the place is good. I expect her to run top 6 here.

Interestingly the short priced favourite, Darren Weir’s Amphitrite , has only won a Maiden & a BM64 in her past 2 starts.
Is that good enough form to be less than 3/1? I think not!
I am happy to back something else to beat her. Weir also has the next 2 in the market – so DANGER backing her. I reckon Veery Eleegant is a better betting proposition than the fav, simply because she gets a ‘gun run’ on the inside, 2 or 3 back along the rail. Difficult betting race.

Backing: Yulong Meteor 1 x 5 Units
Box Trifecta: 2, 3, 6, 10, 11, 13 (35%) 4 Units

There you go Lads, not a great deal of outlay this week, just the 30 Units – reflected by the difficulty of the fields & the weather/track conditions in Sydney.Still should be a great day’s racing but happy to be more ‘daring’ next week for the ‘bumper day’ at Caulfield (as their Carnival begins) & The Everest in Sydney.
Enjoy!

13/10/2018 (Posted 21:40pm Thursday 11/10/2018)

At the outset I apologise for the length of the Preview, but there’s so many good races to assess.

Having only managed 1 winning week out of 5 so far this Spring, it is becoming increasingly obvious that I am somewhat flawed in my assessment of race horses! The losing percentage is significant, at this stage, but there are good week is still to come with some interesting racing ahead. Like most Gamblers, I keep coming back for more. This week is no different.

Before I go into the Previews of a terrific (if not difficult) Day’s Racing, it would be remiss not to make some comment about the ‘furore’ over the barrier draw for The Everest & the strange happenings in Sydney this week. At the risk of making a ‘political statement’, the Leftist, Tree Huggers complaining about the ‘Light Projections’ on the Opera House was amusing, if not weird.

Apart from the fact that the venue has had these types of projections on its ‘sails’ before (the Olympic Rings & Mardi Gras to name but two), the irony of the whole ‘saga’ is that the complex was built on the proceeds of gambling – ‘Tatts Lotto’ to be precise. How hilarious then, that the ‘Outrage Police’ would try to sabotage the event! But I digress…

What a ‘bumper day’ at Caulfield with Group & Listed races everywhere!

Caulfield – MR 10 – The Herbert Power 2400m

This is traditionally a very interesting race with many of these expecting to go on to bigger things in the coming weeks. Traditionally, we should not use this race a guide to the Caulfield Cup (next week), as there are few who repeat their form in THAT race. What we can look at is the Melbourne Cup.

With this in mind, Big Duke comes under notice. He was disappointing in Sydney, but there were excuses – bad ride (3 wide the trip) & he never got out to have a crack at them in the straight. I am prepared to go again on him. Rising Red was scratched from the Bart Cummings last week when I thought he could win, so I am wary of him here.

I ALWAYS respect any Godolphin runner & Prize Money will no doubt be ‘warming up’ late. One would expect him to go back from the draw & he hasn’t carried a weight this light since he was a 3yr old. I think he’ll be better suited to Flemington than Caulfield, but look for him running on at the end.

Backing: Big Duke 2 x 8 Units
Box Trifecta: 1, 4, 6, 8, 9, 13 (35%) for 4 Units

Caulfield – MR 7 – Caulfield Guineas 1600m

This race is nicknamed ‘The Stallion Making Race’. How interesting then that No. 7 & 13 are Geldings (might need their names changed to Jesus Christ if they end up Stallions!) & Oohood , who is the lone Mare in the race. How short would she have been in the Thousand Guineas?

3 of the past 4 winners of this race have ‘backed up’ from The Golden Rose in Sydney, only last year’s winner did not. As a result of his run in that race, The Autumn Sun is the rightful favourite here & Waller says he’s one of the best he’s trained.

Pace & luck in running might play a part in the final ‘wash up’. The fav will be running on no doubt, but not sure the shorter straight of Caulfield will be to his advantage. No doubt he’s very good & will most likely go very close to winning the race but I can never take the Odds on, so looking elsewhere.

Of the leaders, Mick Price’s runner Tavisan might be a chance in the race at $21 Powered & $4.20 the Place. There is doubt over whether he’ll run the Mile, but he’ll be in it for a long way. Another of the ‘go forward’ horses, that will most likely run the trip, is the Weir runner Leonardo De Hinchi . He’s yet to miss a ‘place cheque’ from his 5 starts, including winning The Stutt Stakes at Mooney Valley, over the Mile last start. Before that run, he was just ‘nabbed’ at the post by Brutal – a horse with big wraps. The same outcome might happen here, with the fav charging home late. Therefore an Exacta bet might be prudent here.

I’ve settled on another here in Gem Song . He ran a good 2nd in The Dulcify 2 weeks ago over the Mile, beating Purple Sector. That horse ran really well last week & Gem Song drops 3.5 kgs from that run. Running left-handed here might cause him an issue (particularly around the turn upon straightening) so he’s a risk, but at the price of $16 Powered & $3.40 he’s the best value in the race IMHO.

Backing: Gem Song 1 x 4 Units
Exacta: 4 / 1 for 3 Units
Box Trifecta: 1, 4, 8, 15 (83%) for 2 Units

Caulfield – MR 6 – Thousand Guineas – 1600m

Having just beaten Fiesta in The Flight Stakes to break her ‘duck’, if Oohood was running here she’d be well in the market, if not favourite, wouldn’t she? As a result, hard to go past the Chris Waller runner. Good gate, good form, good jock – good enough for me!
$16 Powered & the $3.50 the Place is a ‘gift’.

Backing: Fiesta 1 x 5 Units

Caulfield – MR 7 – The Toorak Handicap – 1600m

Another Group 1 Mile race – this time for the older horses. Hartnell was great for me last start but he’s too short in price for this race & I actually think he’s better suited over further now he’s 8 yrs old – despite the win last start over a Mile in The Epsom.

Jungle Cat was fantastic last start here over the 7 furlongs but he’s never raced further than that distance & the betting drift suggests the ‘good judges’ are sceptical of his ability to win here – I’ll risk him too. Difficult race to assess speed wise as most of the leaders come from out wide. What is the result of that? Perhaps that means the speed will be on from the start, if so, the back markers will be suited – as will Hartnell because he will run the race out.

Of the leaders, I can see the best advantaged will be the Waterhouse runner Siege of Quebec . His 7th in The Epsom was pretty good considering the work he had to do early from gate 14. He gets a much easier time of it on Saturday, from gate 8, & provided he jumps well, I can see him 2 or 3 back, 1 out. That’s the perfect spot to attack from & at the $15 Powered & $3.80 is very acceptable.

I feel pretty confident (not that I have ANY right to be confident about any of my tipping recently), that he’ll run well & finish top 5. He might even get a nice trail behind Weir’s Cliff’s Edge or McEvoy’s Dollar for Dollar . Happy to back him at the price.

Backing: Siege of Quebec 1 x 5 Units

Caulfield – MR 8 – Caulfield Stakes – 2000m

It wouldn’t surprise me to see Lloyd Williams scratch Homesman from this race before the Cup, next week – I hope so anyway! That said, this is an ideal WFA warm-up for that race & also leading into The Cox Plate in 2 weeks. One would think a number of these are having a final ‘tune up’ ready to run 2nd to Winx at The Valley.

The Charlie Appleby runner, Godolphin’s, Blair House ran a great last 300m in The Underwood to run 4th. The gate might again cause him some issues here, but at the $15 Powered & $3.80, he’s very much a betting option here

Again, Darren Weir holds the key to the race with 3 high quality runners. Humidor is a really good chance of winning this race IMO. $9 Powered is very tempting but the $2.60 the Place is a real gift. He runs top 5 for sure here, doesn’t he?

WFA is his go & this distance too is perfect for him. Must go in all Exotics. He almost beat the Mare in last year’s ‘Plate’ & although I think she’s got a mortgage on the race again this year, he can beat her with the right run & a bit of luck – but we’ll discuss that in 2 weeks!

What does Benbati do from the gate? Do the Godolphin pair work together from the back?

Tosen Basil showed his true worth last start, narrowly beaten in The Underwood – what would’ve the Trifecta paid if he’d got up? Just like Humidor, WFA is his go too. This former Japanese runner is highly capable of winning a race like this. He’ll give a big show from the first 5 in the field & at the $15 Powered & $3.60, he might just have enough in hand to beat this lot.

This should be a fantastic contest & I think it’s the BEST race of the day :D – highly worthy of Group 1 status, with a very strong field of high quality gallopers engaged. Very open!

Backing: Tosen Basil 1 x 5 Units
Box Trifecta: 2, 3, 5, 6, 7 (if not scratched – add 8 if he is), 12 (35%) for 4 Units

Randwick – SR 7 – The Everest 1200m

I must state from the outset that I am not a fan of this particular event. $13 million in prizemoney is far too steep & doesn’t actually reflect the ‘quality’ of the field IMHO – at this point in its history, at least. :roll:

Whilst I understand the intent, I wonder about the ‘sense’ in scheduling such a race in direct competition to the Classics in Melbourne, on the same day. Anyway, enough politics – it’s another race to bet on. The openness of the field in trying to determine a winner is accurately reflected in the odds quoted for the race. 6/1 the field suggests its wide open & probably also reflects the fact that the track conditions could play a role in the likely outcome.

Last year’s winner Redzel is favourite & rightly so, despite a disappointing effort last start. At the time of writing (Thursday evening), the track is already a Heavy 8 & with more rain expected, both Thursday night & on the day, we can expect that the track condition is unlikely to improve – in fact, more likely to get worse! With this in mind, I’m focussing on proven ‘mudlarks’ & inside gates might actually be a disadvantage.

Jungle Edge loves the wet, having won 7 of 14 with 4 placings on a Heavy Track. For this reason alone, a small wager on him is not silly. He has shortened in price but still $61 Powered & the $11 the Place is very inviting – 1 x 3 Units is a decent bet 8) . He definitely goes in all Exotics too. Redzel also has a very good wet track record – having been placed 5 of 6, with 2 wins, Le Romain the same.

The Hayes Camp is very ‘bullish’ about Vega Magic . He will definitely go forward this year, unlike 2017. He’s a query in the Heavy, but has won 2 of 3 on Soft ground & I think the race will be run to suit the front runners.

Where does US Army Flag lob? He’s failed in his only start on Heavy ground but remember ‘UK Heavy’ is VERY Heavy ground (one could call it ‘slop’ rather than Heavy). He has placed 4 of 4 on ‘Soft’, winning 3. Discount this bloke at your peril, I say.

Aiden O’Brien doesn’t bring them out here for fun. He’s a genuine Northern Hemisphere Star this horse & I expect him to be handy in the run. Probably about midfield, with cover. $3 the Place is a little short (having not raced in Australia), but might just get better on the day. To back him the win I’d want minimum $12 (currently $10 Powered), but he should go well.

The mare Shoals has good wet track form (2 from 2 on Soft & 1 from 1 Heavy) & she’s quality - having won 3 x Group 1 races throughout her career. Is she up to this lot? I would suggest Yes, & she’ll be forward in the run too. She’s a bit short for me to back her at $8 Powered, but concede she’s well in the race with a Place chance. Others to have won on Heavy ground are; No. 2, 13 & 14.

I am a big fan of both Santa Anna Lane & Brave Smash but their racing patterns might play against them in the Heavy going. As One would expect, a very open race. Exotics might be the go here.

Backing: Jungle Edge 1 x 3 Units & Le Romain 2 x 6 Units
Box Trifecta: 1, 3, 5, 8, 10, 15 (35%) 4 Units
Pick 4: 3, 5, 8 / 1, 3, 5, 8, 10, 15 / 1, 3, 5, 8, 10, 15 / Field (5%) for 4 Units

There you go Lads, sorry for the length of the Previews.
Really looking forward to the fantastic racing in Melbourne – the Carnival begins!
Let’s hope we can get a couple up.
Caulfield Cup Day next week…

Spargo wrote:Osbourne Bulls e/way for mine.
Also if you’re having a bet in the Kosciusko, Belflyer is massive overs IMO. We got $41, it’s now into $26.
Has won in the wet, had three good runs in and has been set for this.

Great Get Spargo!!!


@Spargo

20/10/2018 (Posted 21:00pm Thursday)

Caulfield Cup Day!
Having performed incredibly poorly so far this Spring, with only a single winning week out of 5, I am in desperate need of some good dividends. Fortunately, these popular Race Days provide big pools in the Exotics – perhaps my best chance of ‘clawing’ my way back from certain bankruptcy is to ‘nail’ a big Trifecta or Pick 4. Pie in the Sky perhaps, but desperate times call for desperate measures!

The Caulfield Carnival continues & both Godolphin & Aiden O’Brien continue to ‘loom large’ in taking OUR biggest races & prize money! Thank goodness for Chris Waller & Darren Weir, eh? Not to mention Lloyd Williams – how good was Yucatan? All things being equal, he runs Top 5 in the Melbourne Cup, doesn’t he? He did cop a 2 kgs penalty for that win but WOW, that was some run! Provided he gets a reasonable gate, he goes very close to winning the ‘big one’ IMHO. Anyway, to this week…

Caulfield – MR 8 – The Caulfield Cup 2400m

You all know about my ‘early speculator’ on Homesman – so no need to outline that I think he can win the race, despite last week’s poorish run. That said, he has a much better gate this week (4) & he will get a much easier time getting to the fence from the jump. The $26 & $7.25 I got after the Valley run, I’m very happy with now! I still think he can win this race because he is so well weighted here. 6kgs under WFA is a huge advantage for this front running bloke – fingers crossed.

Looking at the rest of the field, dismiss O’Brien & Goldolphin at your peril – as shown last week. The long lay-offs between runs, or the travel to Australia, don’t seem to trouble these European runners much, it appears. Off the short back-up, Cliffsofmoher gets a fine Aussie Jockey in Hugh Bowman & gate 5. He is a genuine winning chance but might be better suited over 2000m rather than 2400m, but he goes into all Exotics. As does the Top Weight, Godolphin’s Best Solution . The gate is the worry. Do they go forward or back? The Godolphin runners have generally gone forward this Spring, making their own luck (& winning a number of races!). At time of writing, I am unsure of his racing pattern, so I am going to assume he’ll go back from gate 17, but who knows.

Ace High has the right profile to win a Caulfield Cup, having been a top staying 3 yr old & he has run well in all 4 starts this time in. This is his distance range, with a good gate & Oliver in the seat, I can see him running top 6 for sure. He’s a bit short at $11 IMHO, I’ve got him as a $15 chance, but I am wary of this fellow. You know he will run the trip, so again, he goes in all Exotics.

Red Verdon (2nd) beat Cliffsofmoher (3rd) at Royal Ascot in June & meets him 2.5 kgs better at the weights here. That said, he is 1st Up in Australia, & I do like them to have had a run here before I’m prepared to back them. Interesting runner – Ed Dunlop is a very good trainer of stayers.

Youngstar has no weight with 51kgs & ran an absolute treat at Flemington last start, narrowly beaten by Winx , under Handicap conditions. She drops 3.5 kgs on that run & has that ‘Mare type profile’ that wins these Spring Handicaps. She gets in light, McEvoy in the seat & she makes her own luck from the front 5 or 6 going out the straight. Provided she can get in 1 off the fence, she has a tremendous chance of going very close to winning this race IMHO. She ran really well in Brisbane over the Winter Carnival & that augers well in the Spring Cups. She’s short in the market at $6 but I give her a realistic chance of not only running well, but winning the race.

Of the rest, Kings Will Dream has to also be given a chance of winning, but he’s too short for me to back at $5.

Having already backed Homesman , I am not backing any other runner, & I’m thrilled with the gate because he gets to a great position going out of the straight the first time.

Box Trifecta: 1, 2, 6, 13, 16, 18 (42%) for 5 Units
Pick 4: 2, 13, 18 / 1, 2, 6, 13, 16, 18 / Field / 1, 2, 3, 6, 7, 9, 13, 16, 18, 19 (4%) for 8 Units

Caulfield – MR 5 – The Ethereal Stakes 2000m

Yulong Meteor appeals to me highly as an Oaks chance in a few weeks. She probably goes back from the gate & will need luck to find a way through traffic in the straight, but if Walker can get her into ‘clear air’ at the 300m mark, I can see her storming down the middle of the track late. At the Powered $22 & $4.80, I’m happy to back her.

Backing: Yulong Meteor 3 x 7 Units

Caulfield – MR 7 – The Coongy Cup 2000m

Trap for Fools looks the obvious here. He has been running in good quality races over the past two starts, registering a sound 5th in the Turnbull Stakes behind Winx & Youngstar – if not beaten well, having led the race. He’s the likely leader here too. I expect him to get quite a soft lead out of the gate & probably takes a 3 or 4 length early lead while the rest of the field sorts itself out. I reckon he runs top 4. If he got out to Even Money the Place, I could easily have a big ‘go’ on him, but that’s unlikely.

The favourite is the Godolphin runner, Best of Days . The difference here is the trainer & a ‘local’ having run well behind a good one here last start. Too short for me. Also give chances to Prized Icon & Sixties Groove, while the mare Savomare , ran 2nd in this race last year.

I’ve settled on the Waller runner, Life Less Ordinary . This race is by no means his ‘Grand Final’ & I want to follow him throughout the Spring – I think this one could well be a Sandown Cup winner a week after the Melbourne Cup Carnival ends – might even get a run in the Geelong Cup or The Lexus. $11 Powered & $3 Place is OK at this point, but might just hold off until Saturday, probably get better than that.

Backing: Life Less Ordinary 1 x 5 Units

Caulfield – MR 9 – The Tristarc Stakes 1400m

This is an interesting mares race over 7 furlongs at set weights. This is a classic Sydney vs Melbourne Mares race, leading into the Myer Classic over the Mile, on Derby Day – no Markets out yet for that, so can’t get any guide here.

I actually collected last week on Booker - & those who have read my previews know I’m a fan of her. She’s on the quick backup here & should be thereabouts in the lead group. She loves the track, so she goes in Exotics for sure.

I am also a fan of the Sydney Mare, Prompt Response . She makes her own luck from the front & if she gets a ‘soft’ lead, she’ll go close to winning here. She’s got that Winter ‘Queensland Form’ that I like so much, running 2nd in the Dane Ripper, then winning the Tatts Tiara 2 weeks later. Is this the same preparation, with the Myer in mind? Stable mate Shoomukh , probably comes across, so Prompt Response doesn’t get it all her own way in front, but we saw last week how stable mates can help each other. Perhaps she sits behind Shoomukh , getting a ‘cart’ around the bend. The $11 Powered & $3 the Place is nice, particularly the Place Dividend.

Invincibella is a classy mare who should be finishing hard, if she can get a clear run in the straight. She’s the one to beat, no doubt, while the 2 roughies Bring Me Roses & Freehearted might cause a boil over. The later got no luck last time, so forget she went around. If she’s close enough on the turn, as the leaders ‘fan’, she could get a run through along the rail. She’s not out of this.

Backing: Prompt Response 1 x 6 Units

Box Trifecta: 1, 3, 6, 7, 8, 13 (35%) for 4 Units

Caulfield – MR 6 – The Caulfield Classic 2000m

I have to have a small bet of Visao , due to the loss in Sydney. Never on the track & gets a much better gate here. Still on the Derby trail, I think. He will be happier running left handed & I just have to ‘stick’ after backing him last start. It’s a gamble, but considering my current position financially, I am prepared to take the $34 Powered & $6 Place.

Backing: Visao 1 x 4 Units.

Caulfield – MR 10 – The Moonga Stakes 1400m

He’s Baaaaacckkkkk. Yes, the Place Punters Pal, Tom Melbourne . Back him at your peril, but he is 6/4 the Place & makes his own luck from the front of the pack. The pace will be on in this race, so I’m looking for something to finish hard from the back of the field.

That said, Dream Force will be hard to beat here – quality galloper & 2nd Up record is very good. He’ll take some catching, but might get a torrid time in front & too short for me to back. Another with a realistic chance of winning IMHO is Bjorn Baker’s Music Magnate . Should get a nice run ‘in transit’, midfield, off the pace. Baker is very under-rated trainer IMO, watch out over the ensuing weeks as I think he’ll pick up a good race somewhere.

I’m going with the Stradbroke form here & want to back the top weight, Crack Me Up . 3rd up & with pace on up front, he should be running on over the final furlong. At the price, hoping to finish the day well. I really like the Place Dividend here, $16 Powered & $3.80 is right in my ‘betting range’.

Backing: Crack Me Up 1 x 5 Units

Box Trifecta: 1, 4, 6, 7, 8, 9 (35%) for 4 Units

There you go Lads, another bumper Rant this week.
Despite the financial position, still loving the quality racing.
Enjoy the Day, thinking of heading to Morphettville again this week.
Until next week at The Valley…

What did I say about Godolphin?
They are here to take everything!
I will be betting AGAINST Winx next week, I think - could be some value in the exotics taking her as a Stand Out to run 2nd.

Winning Day Yesterday...
I am going to claim Homesman in the Collects - only the original bet 1 x 6 Units, after the Dato Tan Chin Nam @ $26 & $7.25
Got 45% of the Trifecta - hope you Guys got it.
Missed the Pick 4 :(
Visao missed by a nostril in getting 3rd Money - $51 & $14 still for the Derby... took a little piece 'All In' this morning : 1 x 3 Units

Day Result Won: 43 Units

Total Outlay: 292.6
Total Collects: 242.1
Overall: DOWN 50.5 Units

% Loss over the 6 weeks: 17.26% on Outlay
Slowly Clawing back.

26 & 27 / 10 / 2018 (Posted 8:10am Friday 26/10/18)

The Caulfield Carnival is done, the Mooney Valley Carnival this week & the VRC Carnival the following week. Don’t you just love this time of year? (Did I just ask a Bruce-ism type rhetorical question?). Of course we do, don’t we? :roll:

As my previews have been getting longer by the week, this type of ‘self-indulgent diatribe’ (probably best reserved for a ‘BS Ad’ in prime time) is becoming dire. Still behind 18% on Outlay.

Previews can initially wait this week. The great Winx is going for an unprecedented 4th WS Cox Plate this Saturday & an attempt at Immortality.

Driving home this week, through a lack of a suitable alternative & an obvious need to avail myself of unintelligent ramblings, I endured the ‘Heckle & Jeckle’ Footy Show (rather than the Titled ‘Sports Show’). As such, I heard ‘John West’ mutter a statement regarding Winx & her place in the ‘Order of Australian Equine Status’. Rowe (that authority on all things racing) made statements like; “… I rate the Melbourne Cup as a superior horse race to the Cox Plate…” & “… for Me, Winx is behind Makybe Diva, Phar Lap & Black Caviar as the best Australian horses in history…” Blah, blah, blah. Regardless of whether we agree or disagree with the fat man’s statements, it does make one ponder who is the best, doesn’t it?

FWIW, I personally feel that the Cox Plate is the TRUE indicator of greatness due to the fairness & consistency of the weights scale. That said, it does provide a huge advantage to the juveniles because they carry significantly less weight, with the Fillies carrying 48.5 kgs & the Colts 49 kgs.

The Melbourne Cup is a handicap & as such, the weight scale is unfair. Case in point; Super Impose in 1991. He ran an enormous 4th carrying 59.5 kgs as Top weight that year to be beaten by Let’s Elope, carrying just 49 kgs - & there are plenty of other examples.

I think Makybe Diva carried 56.5 kgs in her 3rd Cup Victory (still ½ kgs under WFA). She did win the Cox Plate @ WFA & also the BMW in Sydney. One could certainly mount an argument in support of her, but for mine, her overall record is far less impressive than Winx’s – 3 Cups aside.

FWIW, if Winx does win her 4th Cox Plate, she just has to go undisputed No.1 IMHO. Despite ‘Crowie’ putting her 4th! She’s dominated Group 1 Racing for years. It will be exciting to watch on Saturday, despite the poor 8 horse field.

So to this week’s Preview…

The Valley, Friday Night – MR 7 – The Manikato Stakes 1200m

A high quality field this year, with a number of overseas horses in the mix. There’s been a heap of money for US Navy Flag , now into 6/1. The weight scale for this race suggests the 3yr old filly Sunlight has a big advantage, particularly if she can ‘get a breather’ in the lead. Her gate & racing pattern, suggests she’ll be going like a ‘scalded cat’ in front here.

That will have 2 possible outcomes I think, either; she gets it all her own way & they just can’t catch her, or, it sets it up for those horses back in the pack ready to utilise the camber of the Valley track around the turn & into the straight, running right past her. I would think she gets some ‘company’ in the lead with the likes of Houtzen & Jungle Edge going forward, as well as Invincible Star.

I’m looking for a ‘run on’ horse that’s about midfield, in the ‘ruck’, getting on the back of another between the 500m & 300m ready to pounce in the short straight. It is the short straight here at The Valley, that always worries me. It’s not conducive to back markers making a heap of ground late & there is often a ‘leader’s bias’ on this track. Let’s face it, Mooney Valley is a ‘country track’ in the city, & as such, you need to be in a good spot at the top of the straight or you’re ‘cooked’.

There’s a $50K Trifecta Jackpot here, so that’s certainly worth having a crack.

I have settled on Voodoo Lad , simply because it’s an open race. The Powered Price of $18 is over the odds for this runner IMHO, I think he runs top 5, so I took the $4.60 the Place early in the Week. He’s 2 from 2 Track/Distance, Placed 9 from 12 over 6 furlongs, I’ve got him a $10 & $3.20 chance, so he’s overs for mine. Happy to go with him despite the openness of the race.

Backing: Voodoo Lad 1 x 5 Units
Trifecta: 4, 8, 10 / 1, 2, 4, 8, 9, 10, 14 / Field (25%) 5 Units

The Valley, Saturday – MR 9 – The WS Cox Plate – 2040m

Here it is. A chance at History & Immortality. Much of the nation, race goer & novice alike, all hoping for the mare to win again. I pose the question; In Racing, is there room for sentiment or what might control the heart? Personally, I would answer by replying; “No, it all comes down to my wallet.”

So I have already done the unthinkable, the unmentionable, the ultimate betrayal - I’ve backed against her!
Does that make me ‘Un-Australian’?
Perhaps. But the $12 Boosted on the Godolphin runner Benbatl was too tempting to ignore. I’ve taken him for 3 Units the Win. I think there is value in the Pick 4 too, having Winx as a ‘stand-out’ to run 2nd.

Look, I think she’ll win, but I can’t help chasing the ‘value’. So I’m willing to ‘Gamble Responsibly’. :roll: The disappointing 8 horse field should see her beat them, but risking a small loss for a better return is what this game is all about, isn’t it?

Backing: Benbatl straight out for 3 Units
Exacta: 1 / 6 for 2 Units
Pick 4: 1, 2, 4 / 6 / Field / Field (55%) for 5 Units

The Valley, Saturday – MR 8 – The Mooney Valley Gold Cup – 2500m

So many variables in this race. Is there a Melbourne Cup place getter here? Big Duke has burned me this Spring. It appears I had over-estimated this bloke’s ability. He may well burn me here by winning, but I can’t risk any more on him – hasn’t performed.

I have only one word; Godolphin.

They are winning everything. Prize Money was OK first up in the Herbert Power. He died on his run behind the unbelievable Yucatan but he’s now had a start here & I’m staggered by the $8 the Place on Ubet.

This time last Spring, The Taj Mahal was a serious threat in all races he raced in. Is he the same horse 12 months later? The gate is a concern here. This race appears to be another battle between Waller & Weir. The classic Sydney v Melbourne (the ‘Bool) rivalry. Concede Waller probably holds the key to the race. Patrick Erin is an under-rated stayer but the weight might tell on him late. Egg Tart is another who could win this race – she ran 2nd in the Doomben Cup. I think she’s short enough at the ‘Each Way Quote’ of 8/1 though. I think she can win here.

It wouldn’t shock to see Tosen Basil go close too. He hasn’t hit the ‘heights’ a number of good judges thought he was capable of. If ever he’s going to win a good race, this is it. He ran well in the Underwood behind Homesman . Don’t dismiss him here – that’s good form.

Backing: Egg Tart 2 x 6 Units; Prize Money 3 Units Place
Box Trifecta: 3, 4, 5, 6, 9, 13 (35%) for 4 Units

The Valley, Saturday – MR 7 – The Crystal Mile – 1600m

What an interesting race at set weights. A good battle for the early lead in the race. Siege of Quebec ran a good race last time for 3rd at Caulfield. Gai might have a couple of horses ready to take some riches from the Carnival. Her Derby favourite is a good animal & she has some others too; Shoomukh goes alright. Siege of Quebec is far too short for me. I’m with Sovereign Nation . He's 3rd Up, 1 from 1 Track & Distance, good gate to choose from the jump – I’m thinking he’ll go back. 8) This isn’t an overly ‘deep’ Mile race IMHO & the Powered $15 & $3.50 is my preferred betting price.

Concede Cliff’s Edge will be hard to beat, as will It’s Somewhat - ran 3rd here last year so not without a hope. Prized Icon is a Group 1 winner despite struggling to win only 2 other races from 30.

Backing: Sovereign Nation 1 x 5 Units
Pick 4: 1, 3, 8 / 1, 2, 3, 4, 8, 9 / Field / Field (5%) for 4 Units

The Valley, Saturday – MR 5 – The Australia Stakes – 1300m

I’m keen to follow one here in the Philip Stokes colt; More Than Exceed . Read an interesting article this week on the plight of Caulfield Trainers being ‘evicted’ to Pakenham, of which Stokes is one, having just moved to Melbourne himself. He’s a good trainer & building some success over there. Worth a little wager, even if the colours aren’t my cup of tea, $12 Powered & $3.30 is fine.

Backing: More than Exceed 1 x 4 Units

Three you go Lads. I find this meeting difficult each year, so prepared to ‘load up’ next week when we move to Headquarters. Enjoy watching the Mare making History tomorrow.
Derby Day is my favourite Race Day of the year next Saturday. Endeavouring to fill the coffers ready for an assault on Tuesday, seeking the Exotics in the Cup.
Until then…

03/11/2018 (Posted 20:05 Thursday Evening)

Against my/your better judgement, despite my urgings to avoid any more embarrassment this Spring, I continue the Previews. :roll: The VRC Carnival gets underway with IMHO the BEST Race Day of the year. Sydney-siders will argue against it, suggesting the 5 Group 1’s at the Spring Champion Stakes / Metropolitan Meeting is bigger, but Flemington is better than Randwick IMO & the crowds (like every sporting venue in Victoria), leave their Northern Neighbours for dead.

Before I get into this week’s Race meetings, it would be somewhat remiss of me not to ‘touch’ on the WS Cox Plate. She proved yet again how good she is, Winx, & must now dispel any doubts about her place at the ‘top of the tree’, Mare or otherwise. Sad to hear Humidor has an injury & as for Kings Will Dream, looks like he’s gone. I will say though, that the ‘on-pace bias’ of the Mooney Valley track is becoming concerning. It makes punting a real challenge. But that’s history now, & we have 4 days of outstanding Racing to look forward to this week, starting with Derby Day…

Flemington – MR 7 – The VRC Derby 2500m

The Derby is such a cruel race for many who run in it. It ends some careers – some horses (as they are 3 yr olds) never recover from this race. It begs the question if juvenile horses should be made to run this far – perhaps it should be reduced to a Mile & a ¼ (2000m)? The statistics suggest that winners going on & having ‘stellar careers’ are few & far between – they generally don’t come back as high quality 4 yr olds. They can however, back up & perform pretty well in the ‘Cup’, 3 days later, hence Gai Waterhouse seeking automatic entry for the winner being reinstated, after 8 years without this concession. Interesting statistics really. Look at Prized Icon, only won 2 other races from 30 starts! TBF, ran well last week but still didn’t win. It’s a ‘brutal’ race.

Gai’s runner Thinkin’ Big was a dominant winner at Caulfield last start & a deserved favourite here, but is there another one having been specifically targeted at the race?

The set weights mean the ‘order of the card’ doesn’t always reflect the winning numbers.

Since 2010, the past 8 VRC Derby results are as follows (1st to 4th): No 1: 1-1-1-1; No 2: 1-1-0-0; No 3: 1-0-2-0; No 4: 1-1-2-0; No 5: 1-0-1-1; No 6: 1-1-1-0; No 7: 1-1-1-0. The only other winning number was No. 13. So can we take any leads from this? I think we can. I strongly believe that those at the top of the Race Numbers, are the ones to seriously consider – the statistics suggest as much.

Thinkin’ Big is the fav, so he has to go into Exotics somewhere. He makes his own luck from the front of the field & maps accordingly here. Savoie probably tries to come over from the outside gate & lob in a forward position, he ran real well last start but The Valley track did favour on-pace runners. He might need to do too much work early to be in the finish of this race – could well be wide going out of the straight the 1st time.

Stars of Carrum ran ‘out of its skin’ last week, it goes back with Aramayo, Micky Blue Eyes & Savvy Oak – the later probably last going out the straight the 1st time. I expect Farooq to get an easy run on the ‘paint’ for the entire journey & he might be one at odds here. I prefer the stablemate Micky Blue Eyes, but it wouldn’t surprise me to see Farooq finish top 5.

I’ve been with Visao all Spring so far, & he just missed by a nostril at $6 the place last start at Caulfield. Cairon Maher is a fine trainer of stayers & his ‘forced absence’ from the training ranks recently has no doubt made him determined to succeed. I will be having a small wager on him because I have to follow my early judgement.

That said, I have been impressed with the Hayes runner Mickey Blue Eyes, & David Hayes appeared a little ‘bullish’ about him, last week. His win in the Dulcify over the Mile & his 2 subsequent runs (both 5th) have been full of merit, including a good run in the Spring Champion Stakes in Sydney. Against the bias last week, he ran through the line well. He’s $17 ‘early doors’ & the $4.40 the place is certainly a good gamble. He’ll do me at the quote.

Backing: Mickey Blue Eyes 2 x 7 Units; & Visao 1 x 3 Units
Box Trifecta: 1, 3, 6, 8, 10, 12 (40%) for 5 Units
Pick 4: 1, 4, 6, 10 / 1, 2, 3, 4, 6, 8, 10, 12 / 1, 2, 3, 4, 6, 8, 10, 12 / Field (4%) for 7 Units

Flemington – MR 4 – The Saab/Lexus/Hotham/ You know the One – 2500m

The Hotham is its original name, so I’ll go with that – even though I know it as ‘The Saab Quality’.
This race is the last chance for some to qualify for the Cup on Tuesday. I did state a few weeks ago that Yogi might win a race like this – I think he’s better suited to the Sandown Cup in a fortnight, but it wouldn’t surprise to see him run on over the top of them here.

Sole Impact is an outsider at the top of the weights. This Japanese runner ran 5th in a Group 2 race in Tokyo in May. That race is an exemption race for the Caulfield Cup. His 1st run here (in the CC) was pretty disappointing, hence the massive price here on Saturday. I’m prepared to forgive the Caulfield Cup run & think he’ll go better here at ‘Headquarters’. Bowman in the seat & Gate 1, means he gets a great chance to atone & tune up nicely for Tuesday’s big one. He’s a likely leader so he won’t spend any extra effort on the way out the straight, the first time. Happy to include him in all Exotics & also a Place bet is well worth considering. Don’t dismiss him!

Jaameh & Brimham Rocks are the ‘form horses’ here. The later having run some great races in Sydney & at Caulfield before this, & the former LOVES Flemington. They are both too short for me at around 4/1, but concede either could win the race from good gates next to each other.

Gallic Chieftain is a proven stayer. His run in the Herbert Power, 4th behind Tuesday’s favourite Yucatan (albeit well beaten – what a win by that horse). His run a week later in the Caulfield Cup wasn’t bad. He’s 5th up in this race, so he’s fit & should be ready to win. Good gate, good Jockey, gun Trainer. $16 Powered is too good not to seriously consider him a ‘betting proposition.

Prince of Arran beat Gallic Chieftain in the Herbert Power, finishing with Brimham Rocks. I’m not convinced about this UK visitor, I can’t see him top 5 in the Cup on Tuesday, so prepared to risk here at 4/1. That may sound strange having suggested Gallic Chieftain can win, but that’s more about price not form. I’ll risk him here, & cop the loss if he gets up.

The other one I’m considering as a winning chance is Waller’s Metrop winner Patrick Erin. Interestingly, he’s been scratched from all starts since that win. Has Waller been keeping him fresh for a lightweight run on Tuesday, with 50 kgs? That would mean he’s 5th up in the Cup. One would think he’d need to win this race to get into the field for Tuesday, but he’s capable, no doubt. Very wary of him, although I believe he was scratched from the Bendigo Cup on Wednesday due to “… an elevated temperature”. He may well be scratched again here if that doesn’t improve.

Backing: Gallic Chieftain 1 x 4 Units
Box Trifecta: 1, 6, 7, 8, 10, 12 (35%) for 4 Units
Pick 4: 1, 7, 12 / 1, 3, 6, 7, 10, 12 / 1, 3, 6, 7, 10, 12 / Field (7%) for 4 Units

Flemington – MR 6 – The Empire Rose Stakes (The Myer Classic) – 1600m

I remember ‘Rosie’ winning the 1988 Melbourne Cup – flew along the fence to get up by ¾ length, if my memory serves me correctly? I stand to be corrected.

This race over the Mile is a Spring Classic for the Fillies & Mares. An argument can be made for ALL 4 Fillies to win here. The 7 kgs less to carry is a big advantage for them. Oohood is a favourite of mine because she never runs a bad race, despite only 1 win from 11 starts, she has got 7 other placings & never worse than 5th! That’s some record & she’s at the type of price here to be a real betting prospect - $3 Place is excellent value.

You can’t fault the Thousand Guineas winner Amphitrite. Her devastating finish to run over the top of them at Caulfield was very impressive. That run suggests she’ll like the long straight here at Flemington – she can win. Traditionally though, the mares tend to win this race.

Is 1600m too far for Shumookh? I expect she’ll be leading the race for a far distance but there is a question over her mile credentials IMHO. I’ll risk her to win.

I’ve settled on a well-priced one here in the Hawkes trained Bella Martini, Each way. She finally draws a gate here & she comes through 2 really good form races, particularly the Let’s Elope 2nd. The Hawkes stable usually ‘bobs up’ somewhere during the Carnival with a winner or two, & her record of 3:1-1-0 at the track is a good pointer. She’s well over the odds IMO at $51 Powered but the $10 the Place is too good to ignore!

Backing: Bella Martini 1 x 4 Units
Box Trifecta: 2, 3, 5, 9, 13, 15 (35%) for 4 Units

Flemington – MR 8 – The Kennedy Mile – 1600m

WOW – huge field & some big prices here. Difficult race but if One could crack the Trifecta or Pick 4, there could be a very good dividend there to collect.

Hartnell is a better WFA horse than a ‘Handicaper’ for mine. That said, he is racing in great form this time in as an 8 yr old. What a record he has – 13 wins & 13 2nd from 45 starts. He’s raced in the BEST Group races for much of his career & he runs top 6 here for sure, I reckon. Can he win the race? He has the pedigree & it would not be any surprise if he were to win. He’s too short for me at the minute but if he were $2.80 Place, I’d have a bet on him.

Le Romain is a good horse & is sure to run well. His 4th in The Everest cost me plenty, having got him at $6, but that’s been a bit of a story for me this Spring so far – ‘close, but no cigar’. I expect both he & Hartnell to be together about 2 or 3 off the lead here, all things considered, Hartnell carrying just 1.5 kgs more should probably beat Le Romain to the line, so if I’m not backing Hartnell, I can’t back Le Romain.

There appears to be a real dash for the lead in this race. No. 6, 10, 11, 13, 14, 18 & ‘Old Tom’ (15), all fighting to set the pace. I expect that Sircconi will try to beat them all off & settle in front, Siege of Quebec (if last start is anything to go by) will likely try & sit 1 out, 1 or 2 back on the pace, probably behind either Cliff’s Edge or Tom Melbourne.

Noire could well end up in the prime spot, midfield in the centre of the ‘ruck’. She’s got some ‘wraps’ on her & has a win over Youngstar 2 starts ago. McEvoy in the seat is a huge plus – he dominated this Carnival last year. $16 Powered & $4 the Place is a sound bet IMO.

Comin’ Through will run ‘through the line’ & will appreciate the open spaces of Headquarters. I can see him running on over the final furlong & could well sneak a place here. His run here in the Makybe Diva behind Grunt was pretty solid, so I’m happy to include in Exotics.

Land of Plenty has to go in too, just because of his record. If they go really hard up front, I think Life Less Ordinary is a chance at a top 5 place too. Can’t believe the 60/1, his last start wasn’t that bad. He ran into traffic on the inside & only got out late, at Caulfield.

Backing: Noire 1 x 5 Units
Pick 4: 1, 6, 8 / 1, 3, 4, 6, 8, 16 / 1, 3, 4, 5, 6, 8, 9, 16, 17 / Field (3%) for 5 Units

Flemington – MR 2 – The Wakeful Stakes – 2000m

Yulong Meteor was given a shocking ride last start.. Grrr! I will be backing up here but the Weir runner will rightly be a short priced favourite – might even start in the Red, Verry Elleegant. Apart from these two, which others in this race will likely backup on Thursday, in The Oaks?

The Tony McEvoy filly Maui Girl is probably one we should look at from that stand-point. She comes out of a really good ‘form race’ in Adelaide – the ‘Hill Smith’ over 9 furlongs. That race has been a great ‘pointer’ to these fillies races in Melbourne, over recent times. She’s certainly rising in grade pretty quickly here (& on Thursday, if she runs) but I’m interested to see how she goes. I’m prepared to throw her in the Exotics at least.

The fav Verry Elleegant has been very impressive & she is rightly at a short quote here. I would suggest this race is not her ‘Grand Final’, so she is vulnerable to something else, but will take a power of beating. The forgotten runner is Qafila. Her record is pretty poor (10:1-0-0) so One couldn’t back her with any confidence but the Hayes stable may well have been targeting a race like this & her last start 4th was a good run – she ‘flew’ home 2 starts ago over 1400m at Caulfield. Can she win? Doubtful, but concede she’s a place chance for sure.

There is a doubt over El Dorado Dreaming with a recurring ‘throat issue’ she’s been having. The Mile & ¼ might therefor pose a problem for her – particularly lugging the top weight of 58.5 kgs.

As for every year, this race is wide open – not that the market reflects that. Maui Girl leads the race from the outset. If she can get some ‘soft sectionals’ in the first half of the journey, she might take some catching. I’m thinking there might be some wind around at Flemington on Saturday, so it may not be much of an advantage (particularly along the back & past ‘Chiquita Lodge’ coming around that sweeping final bend) to be leading the races.

Worth considering those runners in the pack getting cover. That horse might be a real ‘roughie’ in Exclusively Ours. I can hear you lot muttering; “… sheesh, he’s getting desperate now, tipping $81 chances”.

I’m not saying she’ll win the race, but I reckon she’s way over the odds at that price & with the right run, could sneak a place. She failed to run up to the expectation last start at Yarra Glen (when a 2/1 favourite), but has experience here at Flemington & I think she’ll go alright.

Backing: Yulong Meteor 1 x 4 Units (simply have to, as I’ve been following her all Spring)
Trifecta: 4, 5, 6 / 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 8 / Field (35%) for 5 Units

Flemington – MR 9 – The Furphy Sprint – 1100m

I’ve backed Booker here at the $22 Powered & $5 place.

Forgive the last run, that was on a wet track (for the first time). I backed her 2 starts ago when she ran a great 2nd, 1st up. She’s won here at the distance (straight form) & I’m think she’ll come down the outside fence. Being the last race of the day, it might just be an advantage, so I’ve taken a gamble at the price early, hoping she shortens significantly before the race. 8)

Backing: Booker 1 x 5 Units

So there it is Boys, against my better judgement (although I do appreciate the love; MT79, Spargo, JK & Lightning) =D> I have attempted a ‘bumper issue’ Preview for my favourite race day of the Year. Hoping to get a bit of ‘coin in the kick’ for Tuesday.

As for every year, I’m going to Morphettville to watch the Races, Saturday.
If you are there come & say Hi.

I will have a huge Cup Preview for you, late Monday night. Will be interesting to see if Thinkin’ Big wins the Derby & gets a start in the big one. How are they going to beat Yucatan?

Until Monday…

Maybe we could organise a SAFooty 'show' out there next year?
Meet n Greet & all that?

mighty_tiger_79 wrote:I traditionally watch the Melbourne Cup preview that goes for an hour, but I cant see it in the tv guide??

Cant see it on any of the channels

Replay tonight:
Racing.com @ 8:30pm

Tomorrow Night:
Racing.com Get On 6pm
SkyRacing Central 7pm

Oh, & my Preview follows:

Melbourne Cup Preview (Posted Sunday 16:40pm)

OK, last chance to get a big dividend & escape the Spring with SOME of my dignity still intact – I think my credibility has been destroyed somewhat. To do so in the most difficult of races, & with the biggest field in Racing, suggests that I am nothing, if not an optimist – either that or an idiot. Let’s go with the former, shall we?

I figure that mightytiger79 set the tone with is ‘Trip down Memory Lane’, so I implore a little indulgence here.
I’ve been doing this a long time & have only managed to ‘crack’ the Trifecta in 2009 & 2017 – both with Corey Brown on the winner.

I have backed some winners & place getters over the years though – my best was 1988 when I backed Na Botto $50 each way & got back over $1k, running 3rd! The 1st Cup I actually took any interest in was Gold n Black winning in ‘slop’ in 1977. Used to take my Blue K-Mart Transistor Radio to school to listen with an ‘ear-plug’ throughout the 80’s. The only Cup I’ve witnessed live was Let’s Elope’s dominant win in 1991 – my 21st Birthday present was The Melbourne Cup Cruise (on the Fairstar) – 16 hours sleep in 9 nights! They used to call it “Fairstar the Fun Ship”, it was certainly that! What was so funny about that particular Day was I only backed a single winner for the day (I backed Super Impose in the Cup, he ran 4th!!! – I’m good at 4ths), in Heavenly Saint in Brisbane. We always remember the winners, don’t we? Got polaxed that day, let me tell ya!

I think it’s a real shame we no longer have the ‘Cup Day Hurdle’ as the 1st race of the day, thanks to the ‘Outrage Brigade’. I love Jumps Racing & that used to be a real highlight IMHO & a great way to begin the fun.

OK enough reminiscing.

At this stage I am only focussing on the Cup, as its getting a little tiresome trawling through form & coming up with 4th placed runners all the time (Bella Martini hurt on Saturday @ $12 the place!). I will probably come up with a couple of others by Tuesday morning to keep interest in the ‘Support Card’.

So to the 2018 Melbourne Cup …

I am applying the same ‘formula’ of elimination to come up with the 3 Horses I want in the 1st Leg of the Trifecta - that is; finding the Winner of the race. I have an adaptation of the ‘Practical Punting’ (The Optimist) method. I have adapted it because the race is an ‘International Race’ now & needs a slightly different approach. Still we (the Punters) have to deal with horses 1st Up in Australia, in the race. I maintain the VRC should change this & make these overseas horses run at least once before running in this race. It’s unfair on the Punter, & after all, it is the Punters who keep Racing viable with turnover. Rant over, for now.

Elimination Stage 1: Age
Rule out all runners 8 yrs old or over – remove 7, 12, 18
Statistically since 1955, only 5 winners have been 7 yr olds (Almandin (2016); Makybe Diva (2005); Rogan Josh (1999); Vintage Crop (1993); What a Nuisance (1985) – that’s 5 Winners from 62 ‘episodes’ of the race, 2 since Vintage Crop. Interestingly, the Overseas Trainers & Owners have obviously recognised these statistics – look at the number of 4, 5 & 6 yr olds in the race this year.
Rule out the 7 yr olds – remove 3, 14, 15
After Elimination Stage 1, down to 18 possible Winners.

Elimination Stage 2: Weight
This consideration is difficult this year because all bar 3 runners have 55.5 kgs or less, with the Caulfield Cup Winner only penalised 1 kg for that win, with 57.5 kgs here. Personally, I am not considering weight as a factor here because there is only 6.5 kgs between the 24 runners.

Elimination Stage 3: Distance
This is the MOST important consideration, I think. Remember we are looking for the Winner... 1. Won at 2400m+; 2. Placed 2400m+ in ANY of past 5 starts. The ONLY runner to have not meet criteria 1 is Youngstar (22), so I will need to go to criteria 2 to reduce the possibilities: Remove 8, 15

We are now down to 16 runners – 2/3rds of the Field!
1, 2, 4, 5, 6, 9, 10, 11, 13, 16, 17, 19, 20, 21, 23, 24
How hard is this race to pick the winner?

Elimination Stage 4: Pre-Post Price (Sunday – Sportsbet)
The last 21 years have the following results:
7/2; 6/1; 5/1; 14/1; 9/1; 11/2; 7/1; 5/2; 45/10; 18/1; 17/1; 40/1; 9/1; 12/1; 8/1; 18/1; 7/1; 7/1; 100/1; 10/1; 15/1…
Less than 15% of Winners priced above $16 – 62% of Winners priced UNDER $11.
That leaves 11 Yucatan (4/1); 23 Cross Counter (8/1) - below $11, with 1, 2, 5, 9, 10 - $16 or less.

Now down to 7 Runners, still a long way from the desired 3 – last year this was enough Elimination Stages, but we will need more for this year’s Event.

Elimination Stage 5: Australian Jockey
Rule out any non-Australian Jockey – remove 1, 2, & 5
Corey Brown won his 2nd Cup last year, I’m going to remove him because Harry White was the last to Jockey to win the Cup back-to-back on DIFFERENT horses (Arwon 1978 & Hyperno 1979), the most recent back-to-back winner is Glen Boss when he rode 3 in row on Makybe Diva. Interestingly, there have only been 5 Jockeys do it – White did it twice, winning on Think Big in 1974 & 75.

Now down to 4 runners: Marmelo (9), Avilius (10), Yucatan (11), Cross Counter (23)
Technically, McDonald is a Kiwi & Scofield a Saffer, but they have been riding here for a long time, so I consider them Aussie Riders.

I have to take one out, so I remove Cross Counter due to the injury doubt.

So there’s the 3 for this year’s 1st Leg: 9, 10, 11 – 2 x 5 yr olds & a 6 yr old; Yucatan (5/1), Marmelo (15/1), Arvilius (12/1), the Fav, the 2017 Fav & a Godolphin Stayer trained here. Marmelo & Avilius are drawn together in the middle of the field & Yucatan the ‘Carpark’.

The more I look at it, the more I think Marmelo is a good chance of upsetting Yucatan . He was equal favourite for this race last year & ran 9th, after a 1st up 6th in the Caulfield Cup. The price is right for me & who among us wouldn’t love to see the Owner follow through on his

Looking at the probable ‘speedmap’, I see Rostopovich & Yucatan working across. Best Solution pushing up inside them, with Runaway , Chestnut Coat & Ace High all going forward as well. I think it will be a good, solid pace up front – I would be shocked if they repeated the ‘walking race’ of 2 years ago because I reckon the International Trainers felt that’s why they got all beat by Michelle Payne’s mount.

I expect McDonald will be happy to sit 2 or 3 wide on Yucatan , in ‘free galloping room’. I think Bowman gets a great spot 1 or 2 out & 4 or 5 back. Best Solution does what he does best & hugs the rail, ‘bowling along’ in front - he can win it, if he runs the 2 Mile.

It could wind up a true staying test, so I’m happy to have both Marmelo & Avilius as my ‘run on’ chances. That said, I am always respectful of Aiden O’Brien so I have had a small bet on CliffsofMoher & I am wary of the well weighted Youngstar & Cross Counter - although the injury it sustained recently is a worry.

Godolphin are here to win it . The Internationals have now worked out the ‘profile’ required to give themselves the best chance of winning; a 4,5 or 6 yr old weighted around 54.5 kgs that is NOT dower, but a stayer who can quicken from the 2 furlong mark. While Lloyd Williams must always be respected in the big Cups – having won 4 of the past 11 Cups, including the last 2!

I don’t expect to win on the race, having only cracked the Trifecta twice in 30 odd years, but FWIW:

Box Trifecta: 1, 2, 6, 9, 10, 11, 22 (20%) $42 (4 Units)
Stand Out Trifecta: 9, 10, 11 / 1, 2, 6, 9, 10, 11, 17, 22, 23 / Field (25%) $132 (13 Units)

Box Pick 4: 1, 2, 3, 9, 10, 11, 22, 23 (3%) $50 (5 Units)
Stand Out Pick 4: 9, 10, 11 / 1, 2, 6, 9, 10, 11, 17, 22, 23 / Same as 2nd / Same as 2nd & 3rd (5%) $50 (5 Units)

There you go Lads, once again I’ve expelled way too much energy & effort on the hardest race in the Country to tip a winner – by no means do I believe I’ll come out in front, but hey, that’s not the point is it? :roll: Bullshit! It’s all about One’s wallet! Of which mine has taken a battering this Spring! :oops:

I hope that helps you a little in an even more difficult version of ‘The Great Race’ to analyse. If there are any Scratchings or late changes, I’ll update before the race. But that’s how I see it at this stage. As always enjoy the build-up & the Day. I have to work, but I do have access to the ONLY Television on Campus with an external Ariel… Hehehe

17/11/2018 (Posted Thursday Evening 15/11/18 21:35pm)

It would be fair to suggest that 2018’s version of the Spring Carnival has not brought the ‘riches’ One might have expected or sought – in fact the percentage loss has been a significant 28% on Outlay. I apologise for this overall loss (if you followed my Tips) & can only hope that 2019 will bring a better result. To be fair, I have been a little unlucky with a number of 4ths (at good prices) & missing a couple of decent Trifectas but that’s the nature of the game & I have to cop any ‘abuse’, sweetly. This week I won’t be going to the Races or TAB because (as is the tradition) I will be attending the Cross-Country Day of the International 3-Day Event, in the City. I am a lover of Jumps Racing, so naturally, I also enjoy this type of Equestrian Event too. That said, you can have Dressage – just doesn’t have the same appeal for me.

Anyway, to Sandown Classic Day…

MR 8 – The Zipping (Sandown) Classic 2400m

I backed The Taj Mahal last year in this race & he ran well to win. Can he back it up again, just like Zipping himself (having won it 4 times!)? Certainly, he can win here but he’s too short for mine. There’s not a lot of value in the race with Who Shot the Barman the outsider at 11/1.

I do like the stablemate Libran to run well in this race. This 8 yr old is a good Stayer who has performed well just below the top level (like this race) in the past & particularly his last 2 starts. His 3rd in the Queen Elizabeth last week was full of merit, running on late. The one thing you know is he’ll ‘stay the trip’. He does go up 1 kg on that run, under WFA conditions. The ‘knock’ is he has been up for a while & his Metropolitan run was average, but if you look at his Form, his poor runs have come from poor barriers. I think at the price, he could upset the favourite.

Backing: Libran 3 x 8 Units
Box Pick 4: 2, 3, 4, 5, 6 (50%) 4 Units

MR 4 The Eclipse Stakes 1800m

This race is probably the one race I’m looking forward to watching on my phone in Rymil Park. The Michael Moroney runner Radipol loves this distance. He gets a great run from the gate sitting behind the likely leader, Darren Weir’s Tradesman. I am wary of his other runner Kiwia as a run on chance but I’m prepared to back Radipol to have enough ‘in the tank’ to hold them off. Happy with the Powered $12 & $3.10 the Place is really good value for a race like this. Going with my gut (substantial as it is).

Backing: Radipol 1 x 5 Units
Box Trifecta: 1, 3, 5, 6, 8 (50%) 3 Units

MR 6 – The Sandown Stakes 1500m

There are a lot of runners that we’ve seen at various Venues throughout the Spring here in this race. 1500m is always a difficult distance to weigh-up Form IMHO because the Punter has to decide between ‘Milers’ & ‘Sprinters’. With this in mind, I’m looking at weights as the decisive factor in determining which runner to back.

Fifty Stars is the rightful favourite but the extra 100m is a concern at the $2.20 IMO. The price rules him out for me anyway, but if I was prepared to take a price like that, I think he can get beaten – so he’s a risk for me. That said, if you are going to back him, the fact he won over 7 furlongs on a Heavy Track, might ease any angst.

The McEvoy runner Dollar for Dollar has been racing in high quality races & he was just pipped at the post in The Rupert Clarke by a good one in Jungle Cat. But the 59 kgs is a worry & I’d prefer to back the stablemate Fox Hall, with a big drop in weight & the trainer’s nephew Kerrin in the seat. The Powered $15 & $3 is juicy & worth a gamble IMO. Concede a winning chance to Sircconi despite the last start failure & Linda Meech is a good rider, but again, the weight might be an issue.

Backing: Fox Hall 1 x 5 Units
Box Trifecta: 1, 3, 4, 6, 8, 9 (35%) 4 Units

MR 9 – The Doveton Stakes 1000m

Very interesting sprint race. The speed map suggests that those in the outside gates (14, 1, 11, 4) try to go forward, with 13, 6 & 8 pushing up to hold them out. I’m looking at something to do no work early, sit off the speed, get out in the long straight & run over the top of them. That horse might just be Guard of Honour (No. 7). Kris Lees has had a good Spring in Melbourne & this fellow is 4th Up into this race, this is the least amount of weight he’s carried & he might just enjoy the weight advantage over the more fancied runners. There’s been some money for him, shortening from $20 to $15 during the week – so I’m happy to take the Powered $18 & $4.60 in what should be an open race.

Backing: Guard of Honour 1 x 5 Units

So there it is Lads – the final rant for the Spring of 2018.
Thanks for indulging me once again this year.
Disappointing results across the 9 weeks but we live to fight another day, next year.
Enjoy the Day.