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Re: OAKSY Doggies Tips

mighty_tiger_79 wrote:No thoughts on investing on the Duets?

Zero thoughts, haha. I'm KISS.
by Oaksnaf
Wed Feb 10, 2016 1:45 pm
 
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Re: OAKSY Doggies Tips

Today's Results

R1:
Win $33 on #1 ULTIMATE PADDY - Result 2nd
Exacta $5 / Trifecta $3 / F4 $2 loss

R2:
Win $41 on #6 IMMO COM - Result unplaced
Exacta $5 / Trifecta $3 / F4 $2 loss

R3:
Win $44 on #7 HEADROX - Result 3rd
Exacta $5 / Trifecta $3 / F4 $2 loss

R4:
Win $30 on #6 PETES TIMEY - Result 1st @ $5.60
Exacta $5 / Trifecta $3 / F4 $2 loss

R5:
Win $32 on #7 YARRAMUNDI DOMINO - Result 2nd
Exacta $5 / Trifecta $3 / F4 $2 loss

R6:
Win $33 on #1 LOVELY LIZZY - Result 1st @ $1.90
Exacta Win $5 X $10 / Trifecta WIN $3 X $37.10 / F4 $2 loss

R7:
Win $30 on #6 SUNDAY SIPPER - Result 2nd
Exacta $5 / Trifecta $3 / F4 $2 loss

R8:
Win $27 on #5 NITRO PRINCESS - Result unplaced
Exacta $5 / Trifecta $3 / F4 $2 loss

OUTLAY: $350
RETURN: $391.80
P/L: +$41.80
POT: 12%
by Oaksnaf
Wed Feb 10, 2016 8:09 pm
 
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Re: OAKSY Doggies Tips

Oaksy, surely you hit the #6 in race 2.....
Very handy overs. In all honestly, I only really bet on the TOP 2 overs unless there is something that stands out massively. Adopting a simple wagering technique where you are only betting on 2 runners a race is much more fun.

We have both hit 2nd raters with $12 odds today already. Can't complain with that. And from the worst box at Bendigo.
by Oaksnaf
Fri Feb 12, 2016 3:08 pm
 
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Re: OAKSY Doggies Tips

Return today
Wagering is still TOP RATING WIn bet 100/odds = bet
Exotics: Exacta 1-2 X 5 Tri 1-2-3 X 3 F4 1-2-3,4-3,4 X1 a total of $10 spend.

R1 - $25 win bet - unplaced
Exotics loss - $10

R2 - $26 win bet - unplaced
Exotic loss -$10

R3 - $37 win bet - 1st @ $1.60
Exacta Win 5 X $6.90 Tri WIN 3 X $26.60 F4 loss

R4 - $29 win bet - 1st @ $5.90
Exotics loss -$10

R5 - $29 win bet - 1st @ $2.70
Exotics loss -$10

R6 - $44 win bet - 1st @ 1.30
Exacta Win 5 X $4.90 Tri loss F4 Win 1 X $118.90

R7 - $35 win bet - 1st @ 1.30
Exotics loss - $10

R8 - $29 win bet - 1st @ 3.30
Exotics loss - $10

R9 - $24 win bet - 3rd
Exotics loss - $10

OUTLAY: $368
RETURN: $765.50
P/L: $397.50

TOTAL OUTLAY: $1,175
TOTAL P/L: $62.90
TOTAL POT: 5.3%

Some big swings past two days, but the average sits at where we expect. 6 winners in a row today. Haven't done that in a while.
Major problem is that RATING #6 is flying since Monday:
35 races. 7 wins return $64.40
Meanwhile Top Rating:
35 races: 12 wins
Return: $40.90

So the handicapping isn't going so well.
Next race is Sunday for the local HVL.
by Oaksnaf
Fri Feb 12, 2016 7:56 pm
 
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Re: OAKSY Doggies Tips

I've never pursued the place market and I don't keep results of tab place payouts for my win markets. I just keep track of the S/R.
In a win market, if my 1st selection has a 30% S/R of winning and if my 2nd selection finishes 2nd 30% of the time and my 3rd selection finishes 3rd 30% of the time what benefit would I get from doing a place market.
Also if you were exotic punting, would you incorporate both your WIN market and PLACE market? Or would your 1st selection only involve the WIN market and your 2nd and 3rd only involve the PLACE market?
I get confused.
by Oaksnaf
Tue Feb 16, 2016 6:29 pm
 
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Re: OAKSY Doggies Tips

I just keep it simple for the thread.
As you know I punt on top 2 ratings, and increase wager when there are overs etc.
It is just a bit of fun for the forum. And we have a long way to go. Happy to keep as is.
by Oaksnaf
Fri Feb 19, 2016 9:21 am
 
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Re: OAKSY Doggies Tips

We are up to 89 races.
Let's have a quick check to see where things are. I normally do this every 100 races, to make sure I am on the right path or whether I have strayed and have struck some bad habits.
We know that in order to measure our handicapping, our TOP rating must win more than our 2nd and so on.
Handicapping:

So are we?

TOP Rating 27 wins from 89 races @ 30% with level stakes WIN return of $80 and POT -10% with 54 places (inc wins)
2nd 14/89 @ 16% $80.70 POT - 10% 45/89
3rd 14/89 @ 16% $72.60 POT -18% 36/89
4th 12/89 @ 13% $107.10 POT +20% 38/89
5th 8/89 @ 9% $64.90 POT -27% 29/89
6th 8/87 @ 9.1% $69.80 POT -20% 26/87
7th 3/82 @ 3.6% $26.70 POT -64% 16/82
8th 2/75 @ 2.6% $40.20 POT -46% 9/75

75% of the time, the winner comes from our TOP 4. But we only have 64% of all placings come from our TOP 4 selection. So we are better at the finding the winners than we are the places.

So this tells us that we have our handicapping nearly in order for the WIN. Just need to work on 2nd/3rd and 5th/6th.
We are also in pretty good order for out places. Except 3/4.

What we need to look at now, is the wagering. We are not travelling that well on level stakes for the Top 2 ratings, in fact only Rating #4 is showing some profit. But we need to take into account the OVERS. Now these OVERS are the closing TAB results. So they can vary when betting live. But for this example they will do.

OVERS (when we only bet if they are over our market assessed odds) Betting $100/our odds P/L
Top Rating: 9/45 return $43.20 P/L -$75
2nd 7/50 return $62.60 P/L +$233
3rd 2/44 return $26.40 P/L -$280
4th 5/45 return $71.50 P/L +$348
5th 2/42 return $32.80 P/L -$67
6th 0/30 return $0 P/L -$201
7th 0/23 return $0 P/L -$97
8th 1/18 return $20.80 P/L +$23

TOTAL -$117 from $4320 outlay

I am rating my top 5 runners pretty close together, it seems I am more confident in finding those who will LOSE rather than win.
This is also shown that my 8th Rating has finished 8th 22/75 times @ 29.3% nearly the same S/R as TOP RATING winning......

We can look at our numbers all day and find positives in the way that we should WAGER. Hindsight Harry yes?
Well realistically how does this help you handicap? If my handicapping starts to slide, then my once wonderful set of numbers starts to fall.
It would be like changing my bets to only bet on the 4th rating for the WIN VALUE.

We can look at exotics, but the sample really is too small.
Let us just keep ticking along. And maybe I'll concentrate a bit harder on how I am finding 3/4/5/6 rated animals. I am happy with the S/R of 1 and 8.
by Oaksnaf
Sun Feb 21, 2016 8:58 pm
 
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Re: OAKSY Doggies Tips

RACE 11

7 MASTER PHELPS $3.28
2 KOBES HAND $3.64
1 SONIC FEAR $6.85
4 BUCKLE UP BRETT $7.61
6 ASSERTIVE SEER $14.32
3 BROOKLYN CRUISER $21.83
8 OXYGEN BANDIT $36.97
by Oaksnaf
Thu Feb 25, 2016 2:35 pm
 
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Re: OAKSY Doggies Tips

WGL AND BALLARAT

17 RACES
OUTLAY: $728
RETURN: $639
P/L: -$89

TOTAL
OUTLAY: $4048
RETURN: -$644
POT: -16%

Yet to really get a run on with the TOP ratings. In fact we have fallen behind JOE on returns.

We will add another bet to the calculations. Box Quinella 1,2 ratings X 10.
This will make the wagering nearly 50/50 for WIN bet and Exotics.
Is this somewhere where you really want to be?

We will make other adjustments after another 100 races for the WIN bets. This will prove vital to the P/L figures posted here.
by Oaksnaf
Mon Feb 29, 2016 9:33 pm
 
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Re: OAKSY Doggies Tips

wow, race 4 at Geelong was a super result and the wasn't hard at all to get following your market
The overs were massive for the 2nd rating. Top 2 ratings overlay are still running at +20% POT. We will slowly work this into a structured wagering.
Well we are +7% POT betting on all closing S-TAB OVERS from top rating to 8th rating. But as we know with greyhound racing the totes fluctuate significantly and after the green light. So it is impossible to bet on some 'overs and some unders you would have bet on.

The important factor to keep track of is your live bets. If you find that your wagering doesn't return the supposed dividends that your 'stats' show then there may be a few issues. You should also not watch a runner cross the post and think "ahh bugga I missed that runner, it was overs". If you have structure you are less likely to miss this.

We are up to 124 races. And Box QUIN 1,2 returns $199,60 for every $1 / Exacta 1-2 $96.30 / Tri 1-2-3 $116.70 F4 1-2-3-4 $274.10

So the structure of Box Quin 1,2, X 10 Exacta 1-2 X 2 Tri 1-2-3 X 3 and F4 1-2-3,4-3,4 X 1 works on the current figures.

I could run through my data and find many winning combinations. But I don't want to do that. I want to look at the S/R of combinations and in time, if I can find the VALUE then it will be prosperous.

The fact of the matter is, what works one month, may not work the next month. Especially when it comes to studying the form.
I've noticed a real slump at Warragul recently. I've been running 'ghost' studies on only TIER 3 meetings, like Geelong. And have found recently I am much better suited at the moment. The switch today showed that +$555.50. A bit of luck? Perhaps.

It is important to realise you can change whatever you are doing. If the system doesn't work - there is no reason it will simply turn itself around because it has worked for the past 5 years. Trends are important. Short term and long term. If you are disciplined and can BEAT JOE then you're ok.

And by keeping track of JOE - you can actually start to see where some of the VALUE is.
JOE's 6th best rated runner from 123 races has returned $171.40 with a S/R of 9%. If that S/R with average starting odds of $17.99 - if you have that S/R at those odds then you will be printing money.

Data is good to have. Just don't confuse yourself. Keep it simply stupid.
by Oaksnaf
Tue Mar 01, 2016 10:43 pm
 
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Re: OAKSY Doggies Tips

RACE 12

4 NERO JOE $3.80
8 PAUL STEALER $5.22
10 MISS CAPONE $5.80
5 IRON SIDE $8.84
6 WINTER TIME $9.82
1 SOLAR RAPID $16.63
3 CORGI CRY $18.48
7 COSMIC JEWELS $22.81
by Oaksnaf
Wed Mar 09, 2016 12:34 pm
 
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Re: OAKSY Doggies Tips

HORSHAM

OUT: $440
IN: $504
P/L: +$64

TOTAL
OUTLAY: $6966
P/L: -$268.90
by Oaksnaf
Sat Mar 12, 2016 10:22 pm
 
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Re: OAKSY Doggies Tips

VALUE is key in this caper. For those who can win on level stakes WIN wagering I salute you. I have never been able to be in front on level stakes for my top rating selection in the past 10 years using the closing price from S-TAB. In fact I finish the years off around -4% for top rating. At least I am a consistent loser. But what I can do, is win backing the OVERLAY.

I do trust my markets as my S/R are nearly in perfect order. So at least I know I am on the right path there. If my handicapping wasn't in order, IE: my 2nd rating or 3rd rating wins more than my top rating, then it wouldn't be easy going.

For the sake of the FORUM, we will be calculating the profit on the closing FIXED odds TAB price (as we know totes fluctuate very quickly, but the fixed odds move slowly).

We will be wagering on ANY OVERLAY. So Rating 1 to Rating 8.
The size of the bet will be $200/odds = bet size.

As you can see we are -5% POT after 200 races.

OUR new Wagering is as follows:

WIN BET; $200/odds = bet amount. Accepted bets will be based on closing FIXED ODDS on S-TAB

Quinella: Box 1,2 X $16
Exacta: 1-2 X $9
Exacta: 2-1 X $6
Trifecta: 1-2-3 X $3.50
Trifecta: 2-1-3 X $1.50
F4: 1-2-3-4 X $1

EXOTICS: $37 per race
WIN BET: Expected average $95 per race.

So our wagering is now 70% Win 30% Exotic - about where I like it to be.

So let us see how we progress for the next 200 races.

Be interested to here how others are structuring their wagering.

Also while I might be -5% on level stakes for top rating. JOE is -15%. JOE is -24% for 2nd rating in this 200 races I've analysed.

Happy Punting.
by Oaksnaf
Sun Mar 13, 2016 4:37 pm
 
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Re: OAKSY Doggies Tips

HUGE DAY

OUTLAY: $1600
RETURN :$4736
P/L: +$3,136

TOTAL:
OUTLAY: $9,142
P/L; +$2,748.60
POT: +30%

As per the recent post outlining our new wagering structure, our average 12 race meeting spend has increased by X 3 from $500 to around $1500.

So you can expect the swings to be larger than before. Maybe we got a bit lucky with DAY 1 of the new FORUM wagering being a real success, but we would be much further in front if website hadn't crashed during Traralgon Tier 3 action. So we take the good with the bad.

We picked a $27 winner from the top rating, 4/12 races our top 2 quinella the race. 4 FIXED odds overlays won from the day too. So these days don't happen too often. Enjoy them.

Plenty in the kitty for MT SA action tonight.
by Oaksnaf
Mon Mar 14, 2016 3:02 pm
 
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Re: OAKSY Doggies Tips

TRARALGON R1




3 DR MELEZAR $2.27 - can ping and is aggressive into T1 - should win
2 ANJING BETINA $8.03 - steady beginner who looks to race mid track, another finished strong
1 CHEERFUL SCOUT $8.92 - begins well, but tentative into T1, will get going again mid race. Finishes well.
4 FORDO BALE $11.01 - Hunts up well into T1. Should find space early. But may just run out of puff last 40m
7 HULA HUSTLER $12.23 - Has gone up with the lids most starts. Moves to rails and charges late.
8 COLLINDA WARRIOR $15.10 - can tend to sit back in the boxes. needs plenty of room to do best. Could be stuck outwide T1
6 RUBBLE TO EXCEL $20.72 - Can't run the time needed to win for mine.
5 FAR OUT INDIAN $28.42 - Will be slower out and moves out wide. Needs best case scenario. Too much underneath it into T1 to do best.




Hard to go past the top rating.




Early odds looks like will be backed #3 WIN and #2 PLACE




TRARALGON R2




3 JAKE $3.59 - True chaser for mine. Only steady away, but keeps trying even if finds problem. Should be motoring home.
8 ZALL OVER $6.07 - Concern is wants the rails early. But should get a nice run in with 5,6,7 slower out. Times suit this runner.
1 HENRY $6.75 - Not totally convinced on this runner. Is steady away, inconsistent in performance and may want to scout mid-track at T1 which could find bother.
6 MY LADY LIMONITE $9.26 - Times suit, and likes to go around runners so box does favours. Runs home well.
2 OUR FIRST LADY $10.28 - May want to go wide here. Distance is concern also.
4 PAUA HIKING $11.43 - Pings the lids, goes straight to the rail. Fades badly. The one who could cause issues for 1,2
5 HURRICANE AUSSIE $15.67 - Can bomb the start, tends to perform when bias box applies.
7 PINK ROCKET $19.35 - Slower out recently and looks to be stuck wide this trip. Needs to regain form before we back her again.




Early odds expected bets. WIN #3 PLACE #8 or 6
by Oaksnaf
Sat Jun 25, 2016 4:08 pm
 
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Re: OAKSY Doggies Tips

mighty_tiger_79 wrote:Where have you been??
You cant just waltz back in here with winners without answering the tough questions!!

Sure I can.
by Oaksnaf
Tue Jul 10, 2018 4:24 pm
 
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Re: OAKSY Doggies Tips

GEELONG RACE 8

6 JUMBO BALE $3.37
8 COSMIC KILBY $4.16
4 JELLYBEAN JESS $7.04
7 SLIPAWAY WHITEY $10.73
1 RAZZLE OAK $11.93
9 LEEROY ROX $13.25
10 TIGGERLONG RING $22.44
2 EBONY ECLIPSE $42.23

6 is suited outwide, and will enjoy this class. 8 gets best chance to date as not much early pace in this race.
by Oaksnaf
Tue Jul 10, 2018 5:49 pm
 
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Re: OAKSY Doggies Tips

MEADOWS RACE 11

2 CHIEFS EMPIRE $3.16
7 KINLOCH MOSS $5.95
5 DESPACITO $6.62
3 DYNA CHANCER $8.17
6 NOTORIOUS MAC $10.08
1 BLACKJACK NEO $13.83
4 FEDERAL LILLY $18.98
8 YUKO $54.42


DYNA CHANCER was given 7 day stand-down for right shoulder muscle injury from last start which was obviously well below par. If returns fully fit. Watchout.

#2 for mine, best chance after going to NSW to return to the winners list. Drawn perfectly, inside runner is slower out. 3 is slower out and 4 steps right initially with mainly 4,5,6,8 all needing to get in the front bunch to win.
So if 2 leads, there is not much that can run him down.
#7 gets good chance in what is a harder field, enjoys racing wide and does have a good motor if the leaders get squeezed.
#5 has the raw pace to be the one out of 4,5,6 to sit behind the 2 early.
#3 class runner. If fit. Much better.
#6 great railer, but needs a bit more room than others.
#1 has a big motor mid race, but will want to scout wide at the first turn, and may just find a bit of traffic.
#4 this field too strong even if does lead.
#8 cant cross. So can't win. Outclassed.
by Oaksnaf
Sat Jul 14, 2018 10:43 pm
 
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Re: OAKSY Doggies Tips

Stopped off there last Sunday. The extra width very noticeable as is the increased camber. Less injuries to dogs is the aim and so far so good.
I'm not against the US style where the tracks are softer = less injuries. But here in Oz we are addicted to fast times. Thats for all codes.
I dont mind the new style lure they've introduced where it hangs further away from the rail.
Think it's great for all points mentioned. The only problem you could say is the huge bias to the inside boxes.

Times have never worried me. Haha. Go tier 3.
by Oaksnaf
Sun Jul 15, 2018 8:36 pm
 
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Re: OAKSY Doggies Tips

Meadows R11 ignore the names.

1 MY $3.64
8 SP $5.55
4 MT $6.85
5 SA $9.40
3 NE $10.44
6 KK $12.89
2 PQ$15.91
7 AS $17.68

Funny race with 1 getting benefit of inside box. Can hold lead here.
8 Wants the rails but with slower pace on inside will help early. 3 can lead here but may fade.
4,5 are well suited race wise for mine.
The names confused me on r8.....lol
Hahaha yeah forgot to update link. Hahaha.
by Oaksnaf
Wed Jul 18, 2018 3:45 pm
 
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Re: OAKSY Doggies Tips

mighty_tiger_79 wrote:
mighty_tiger_79 wrote:Shadale for me.
Sits behind the carnage and wins

Went poor there the red.

At least we got the 2 right.
by Oaksnaf
Thu Jul 19, 2018 9:25 pm
 
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Re: OAKSY Doggies Tips

mighty_tiger_79 wrote:Strath r8 -6 spring bloom
$1.90

I have this $1.20.

Should blow these away.

Good work MT.
by Oaksnaf
Fri Jul 20, 2018 9:40 pm
 
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Re: OAKSY Doggies Tips

mighty_tiger_79 wrote:Howa your Healesville record these days?
As good as it was? Better?

Judging by those two races..... mixed.
But will see how we go.
by Oaksnaf
Fri Jul 20, 2018 10:29 pm
 
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Re: OAKSY Doggies Tips

SALE R12

4 JUST FAITH $3.00
6 FLASH FRANKIE $4.58
1 SURGICAL WALLY $6.98
7 DR ANNIE $8.61
2 AURORA MISS $9.57
3 QUEEN OF SPRITE $11.82

4 should lead this field from 1, may just run out of puff, but has enough speed to LAW. 6 will be suited outwide with vacant box underneath and 4 clearing a path, mind does go off the job for mine though, that's only deterrent.
Of all runners the 3 did show good improvement last time out at WGL when resuming. Fixed odds $7 looks good value for this runner. Hard to see it winning, but may just get rail and run home cheeky place.
by Oaksnaf
Sun Oct 06, 2019 9:02 pm
 
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Re: OAKSY Doggies Tips

Ballarat Race 6

7 FLOSSY LEE $3.78
4 DYNAMIC STREET $5.19
1 YEP YEP $6.40
5 SPEEDY RYDER $7.11
8 AGENT QUE $9.76
2 FAST FREDDIE $14.87
3 SENSE $22.67
6 LEEROY ROX $31.10

#7 gets perfect cart into race with 5,6 slow out and 4 wants rails and 8 wants outwide.
Is also only runner who I think can go around other runners at the bend. 4 has chance to jump well without pressure from outside and will only need to overcome the 1,2 at bend to do best.
by Oaksnaf
Sun Oct 06, 2019 11:53 pm
 
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Re: OAKSY Doggies Tips

BALLARAT RACE 8

3 ROCKY TWO $3.46
6 FERNANDOS FLARE $6.51
1 GAME SPIRIT $7.23
4 BROKEN PIECES $7.62
2 LORENZA $9.41
8 WHERES SUCCESS $12.91
5 BLAZING SWORD $15.94
7 ALEZAN $24.29

3 Should get the side on the rails behind 1,3. If 1 steps off the corner should open a hole up and will be too strong in finish.
6 has pace to sit outside the leaders early but will be peaking on the distance. 1 has speed to be leaders, but needs clear room outside on bend to do best as will be wide running. 4 can sweep around the outside of runners which suits this race as plenty of rails except the 1.
by Oaksnaf
Mon Oct 07, 2019 8:21 am
 
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Re: OAKSY Doggies Tips

SHEP RACE 5

5 FLASH FERNANDO $4.72
6 SONOMA ICON $4.82
8 LEVIS ME BOY $5.95
1 DEFENDANT $6.61
4 SCISSOR KING $9.07
7 CAST $13.82
2 YOU BLAST $21.07
3 PONTIAC ICON $32.11

Tricky race again. Believe the 5 is well drawn here as may actually get to lead this race here or at leas have room to move to rail early. They are all quiet even in speed early, but 5 seems to be a bit more consistent. The 6 is the strongest runner here and will go very close to winning. Will be running outside of them. Watch out for the 3 who could spear wide at the turn.
by Oaksnaf
Mon Oct 07, 2019 7:49 pm
 
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Re: OAKSY Doggies Tips

HORSHAM RACE 5

4 POOR OLD FRANK $3.95
5 AMOR VINCIT $4.88
6 ASTON LAGONDA $6.69
2 FLYING JAMAICA $8.26
1 DREAM BOULEVARD $9.18
8 FOUND IN QUARTZ $11.34
3 GREAT SUCCESS $19.20
9 XERA BALE $44.60

Quite an interesting race this one, not many of these runners come from behind to win really, perhaps the 5 is the only one that does so. This is also a harder field for the 6 who has been racing well here of late, so no doubt Joe will come for the 6.

They all have good pace early, 2,3 will want to move left while 1 wants to push off,4 will run straight and 5 wants rails. 8,9 are slow out, 8 will muster up quickly though. This should mean the 4,5,6 get room either side early to move forward. At the bend 4 has to be clear of 5 as 5 will want the rails while 4 wants to race off. 6 is slow mid race and will have to go long way around this field. Runs out of steam out there.
If 4,5,6 are caught in a tangle, then it is 8 that will benefit most here.

I think it is quite tight at the front overall, 4,5,6 will be hard to find good value about.
by Oaksnaf
Tue Oct 22, 2019 3:35 pm
 
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Re: OAKSY Doggies Tips

50 races into the new season campaign and the results look like this:

TOP RATING 20winners 40% S/R, Returning $55.87, POT 11.7%, based on closing FIXED ODDS TAB.
TOP RATING OVERLAYS 19 selections 6 winners, 31.5% S/R, Returning $26.20, POT 37.8%, based on closing FIXED ODDS TAB

Winner coming from top 4: 42/50 = 84% S/R
Total overlays: 164 for 13 winners 7.9% S/R Returning $173 on level stakes betting.

Looks to be around the mark for the top rating selection.
Issue has been the 2nd/3rd rating at the moment have been under performing and my handicapping for these runners is impacting the exotics.
For instance 2nd rater has only won 5 times returning $16.70 and has only finished 2nd 9 times. With 22 overlays for 1 winner returning $6.50......
So this is the area where I need to hone my skills, get a more accurate market after the top rater.
by Oaksnaf
Tue Oct 22, 2019 4:36 pm
 
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Re: OAKSY Doggies Tips

It is all manual hard work.
No computer science behind this at all. Just my brain.
I need a bit of work on my brain for the 2nd/3rd/4th ratings they are not performing when I can find the winner. So there is something I am fundamentally doing wrong. Hope can find the answer in the next 50/100 races.
by Oaksnaf
Tue Oct 22, 2019 4:56 pm
 
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Re: OAKSY Doggies Tips

The rules I adopt when deciding to bet on an overlay are simple as I don't have the necessary time to be following the markets extensively.

Scenario 1)
Early Market opens overlay. You spend half your expected overlay wager.
Closing Market closes overlay. You spend the remaining half of wager.

Scenario 2)
Early Market opens overlay. You spend half your wager.
Closing Market closes underlay. You don't buy the remaining half.

Scenario 3)
Early Market opens underlay. You don't bet any wager.
Closing Market closes overlay. You then bet your full wager.

I base all my markets on value off the TAB FIXED Odds market. If that runner is an overlay on that market early, then you go and chase the best price possible elsewhere. If the runner is an overlay in the closing market, you chase the best price possible.
by Oaksnaf
Tue Oct 22, 2019 5:01 pm
 
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Re: OAKSY Doggies Tips

Hahaha, done, but you can only spend it on track. That's the condition.
by Oaksnaf
Tue Oct 22, 2019 8:21 pm
 
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Re: OAKSY Doggies Tips

Missed putting up my Warragul Races today. Here are the 2 below just for interest sake.

WARRAGUL RACE 7

2 BANJO SALLY $3.28
4 SHAUN JOHN $6.16
8 RED QUEEN $6.85
1 SPOLLYS FLYER $8.45
7 CILLA GEM $10.44
5 TERRAH ROUND $14.32
3 ALL YOU GOT $17.67
6 SPRING NUGGET $21.82

WARRAGUL RACE 11

3 COCO MARLOW $3.60
5 SABAKAT $6.10
7 ADO CARR $6.78
2 SUPERIOR PAL $8.37
8 TURN HIM AROUND $9.30
10 SODA MAX $12.75
1 ASTON TRUFFLE $15.74
4 TINKER BESS $23.99


And here are some early HVL for Friday

HEALESVILLE RACE 6

2 COVFEFE $3.4
8 SWEET AMBUSH $6.5
1 DYNAMIC STREET $7.2
6 IM ORION $8.0
5 HAGRID GRANGE $9.8
4 MANILA SPRITE $10.9
3 POISON GAS $15.0
7 LILY THE WEAPON $34.8

HEALESVILLE RACE 8

3 LITTLE SAMARA $3.9
5 ALFIE MIKADO $4.4
6 PRIMA MIKADO $6.7
2 HURRICA ROSE $10.2
8 STANDING BEAR $11.3
1 KNOW SUCCESS $12.5
4 CRACKERJACK ROY $17.2
7 PRIMO BESO $23.6
by Oaksnaf
Thu Oct 24, 2019 10:40 pm
 
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Re: OAKSY Doggies Tips

SUNDAY HVL RACE 6

7 KNOCK THE CLOCK $3.7
1 LIGHTS OF TANJIL $5.6
6 SHES MY BLAST $6.2
5 RICOS AMORE $6.9
3 BIG ROY PADDY $9.5
4 UNSOUND MIND $14.5
2 KRANSKEY $22.0
8 HARVEY WARBANGER $41.5

A race of two halves really. SHES MY BLAST can ping the lids and wants to move across to the rails early. Will surely lead this field, but will be fading badly last 50m. LIGHTS OF TANJIL will also jump quickly, but wants to race mid track. If doesn't get cramped then will run time. The interesting thing will be the 5 at the start first look at the track and with the 6 coming across may get a little unsettled.
The 7 can run time here, has been racing well in only starts here and times elsewhere suit for mine. Gets perfect run in race as 6 will ping to the rails, 8 is slow and stays wide. So should get the perfect slot in the race which will see big improvement.


RACE 7

4 VITALISER $3.4
8 SUPERIOR SAM $3.8
5 SUPERIOR CHASE $4.2
1 SIMPLY SMARTER $7.9
7 HABOOB $28.1
6 RHINO REX $42.8
3 QATAR GIRL $47.5

Few real winning chances in this race.

RACE 8

1 ICE COOL KAEDYN $2.1
8 SUPERIOR BRIZ $4.0
2 SERIOUS BOLT $9.3
5 WAZZA HAWK $14.2
7 LIGHTNING PARADE $17.5
6 SILVER CUPCAKE $33.0
4 FLOSSY LEE $62.1

1 hasn't won here yet, but gets dream box draw and can run time. 8 is drawn inside out, can begin well enough but wants the rails. Is a monster late race on the rails with clear traffic. 2 wants to get off early and runs on, but can't match times of 1,8. 5 wants wide and been in weaker company of late. Race is made for the 1 as should get all favours.
by Oaksnaf
Sat Oct 26, 2019 10:39 pm
 
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Re: OAKSY Doggies Tips

And here is how to spend $10 on each of the races.

Our $10 Bets

HVL RACE 6
Win #7 $3 @ $4.20
WIN #4 $1 @ $18

QUIN
1,7 $3
6,7 $1.5
5,7 $1.5

HVL RACE 7
Win #8 $3 @ $4.40
Win #5 $2 @ $4.80
Quin
4,8 $3
4,5 $2

HVL RACE 8
Win #1 $4.5 @ $2.15
TRI
1-8-2 $1.5
8-1-2 $1
1-2-8 $1
1-8-5 $1
1-8-7 $1

SANDOWN RACE 6
WIN #4 $7.50 @ $3.50
TRI
4-7-6 $2
7-4-6 50c
by Oaksnaf
Sun Oct 27, 2019 11:02 am
 
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Re: OAKSY Doggies Tips

Yes you have to play the percentages. Get those 120-130% fixed odds market closer to 100% with good odds and your halfway home. Then if can handicap you are there. Just need TIME + SKILL.
by Oaksnaf
Sun Oct 27, 2019 11:29 am
 
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Re: OAKSY Doggies Tips

CRANBOURNE RACE 8

2 THREADIN MIKADO $3.4
1 THUMB A RIDE $5.2
6 AURORA MISS $7.1
5 LIGHT THE TRACK $7.9
7 MATILDA MIKADO $9.7
4 DYNAMIC ROSS $12.0
3 SLICK MAGGIE $27.9
8 BEANOLOGY $42.6
by Oaksnaf
Mon Oct 28, 2019 1:20 pm
 
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Re: OAKSY Doggies Tips

Well done MT

GEELONG RACE 12

6 TIGGY BUZZARD $4.1
1 ZIPPING AFRO $4.6
2 MY MASCARA $5.1
3 WHY NOT KALEB $5.7
7 LATINIZE $8.6
4 STANDING BEAR $20.0

BENDIGO RACE 4

7 FLYING JAMAICA $1.6
5 LEVYS BANJO $4.5
2 BLAZING SWORD $6.9
by Oaksnaf
Tue Oct 29, 2019 4:21 pm
 
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Re: OAKSY Doggies Tips

HEALESVILLE RACE 3

2 QATAR GIRL $2.4
1 POOKIE SMURF $4.5
7 RYDER SIR $5.6
8 FLYING JAMAICA $8.5
4 RECO TONIC $16.0


RACE 8

1 SUPERIOR BRIZ $3.3
5 SIDESHOW MARJEN $5.0
7 SERIOUS BOLT $6.2
2 SHES MY BLAST $11.7
4 SECRET PACKAGE $13.0
8 SUPERIOR BONT $14.4
3 CEE ME SNOOP $17.8
6 SUPERIOR CHASE $19.8

RACE 10

3 LUCKY MILLIE $4.6
1 DYNA OWEN $5.1
4 LEKTRA ELSA $5.4
7 ALFIES AFFAIR $6.0
2 UNDETECTABLE $6.3
8 IRINKA JENNA $22.3
6 YOGI MIKADO $34.0
by Oaksnaf
Sun Nov 03, 2019 10:38 am
 
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Re: OAKSY Doggies Tips

HEALESVILLE

RACE 3

8 PIZZA SHOP $2.7
2 TOUGH LIKE ATOM $5.0
1 SOUTHERN EDGE $6.9
3 STRAY CAT $8.5
6 TEARS IN EYES $9.5
4 RUBYS ROSA $22.0
7 MT VIEW GIFT $77.8

R11

6 CHALLIS SPRITE $1.8
4 SO SAY $6.3
5 QUEST ALLEN $9.6
8 TENNYSON GIRL $10.6
2 IM CIRCUS $24.7
3 ZAMBORA CASH $37.7
7 BLISTERING BETTY $87.5

BALLARAT R1

3 RUN BABA RUN $1.7
4 CLEAN SLATE $4.9
5 MY BOY WINLOCK $11.4
8 RIVERDALE BEAR $21.4
2 CRACKERJACK NASH $23.8
1 TOMASSI $44.8
6 RUBY ARIZONA $84.3

BALLARAT RACE 7

1 RUN BABA RUN $4.6
5 FOLDING GREEN $5.1
7 STAR FEVER $6.3
2 MR MILFORD $8.6
3 SARCASMIC $9.6
6 VROOM VROOM $10.7
4 DUNDEE BLITZ $14.6
8 INGA ROSS $22.3
by Oaksnaf
Mon Nov 04, 2019 10:43 am
 
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Re: OAKSY Doggies Tips

Will do the Meadows later this evening, think I've got 4 races suitable.
by Oaksnaf
Mon Nov 04, 2019 10:50 am
 
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Re: OAKSY Doggies Tips

Thanks moeee,
$5 fixed place odds was good.
Missed quin/exacta which were main bets given I had it quite open.
#8 was overs for the win, had half the bet size on it compared to 6.
Onto a big day tomorrow and hope to see some funny pools/odds as everyone empties what's left in the twilight greys after the CUP.
by Oaksnaf
Mon Nov 04, 2019 10:59 pm
 
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Re: OAKSY Doggies Tips

SALE RACE 8

7 LONNIE MACH $2.8
4 SHADY TEX $5.3
6 NIGHT THINGS $5.9
1 JACKSONS RIVER $7.2
8 SODA FLAKES $16.8
3 GELLER ALLEN $18.7
5 CROUCHER $53.5
2 BEANOLOGY $81.6


QUADDIE COMBOS TO TAKE

1 8 3 7
7 8 3 7
5 8 3 7
3 8 3 7
1 8 3 4
1 8 2 7
1 8 3 6
8 8 3 7
1 8 1 7
1 3 3 7
2 8 3 7
7 8 3 4
7 8 2 7
1 8 3 1
5 8 3 4
1 8 8 7
7 8 3 6
5 8 2 7
7 8 1 7
7 3 3 7
by Oaksnaf
Tue Nov 05, 2019 3:25 pm
 
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Re: OAKSY Doggies Tips

Haha yeah, very rare I get all quaddie races suitable these days.
by Oaksnaf
Tue Nov 05, 2019 6:29 pm
 
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Re: OAKSY Doggies Tips

50 races into the new season campaign and the results look like this:

TOP RATING 20winners 40% S/R, Returning $55.87, POT 11.7%, based on closing FIXED ODDS TAB.
TOP RATING OVERLAYS 19 selections 6 winners, 31.5% S/R, Returning $26.20, POT 37.8%, based on closing FIXED ODDS TAB

Winner coming from top 4: 42/50 = 84% S/R
Total overlays: 164 for 13 winners 7.9% S/R Returning $173 on level stakes betting.

Looks to be around the mark for the top rating selection.
Issue has been the 2nd/3rd rating at the moment have been under performing and my handicapping for these runners is impacting the exotics.
For instance 2nd rater has only won 5 times returning $16.70 and has only finished 2nd 9 times. With 22 overlays for 1 winner returning $6.50......
So this is the area where I need to hone my skills, get a more accurate market after the top rater.

We are now up to 100 races.
TOP RATING 38 winners 38% S/R Returning $102.25, POT 2.25% based on closing FIXED ODDS TAB.
TOP RATING OVERLAYS 38 selections 10 winners 26% S/R, Returning $42.75 POT 12.5%, based on closing FIXED ODDS TAB

Winner coming from top 4: 81/100 = 81% S/R
Total overlays (this is for all ranked animals) 323 for 28 winners 8.6% S/R Returning $388 on level stakes betting.
If you were to bet 100/odds = bet size on all overlays :
OUT $4,242
IN $4,705

2nd rater still terrible, only 10 wins, but has now come 2nd 20 times. Still needs massive improvement.

Basically last 50 races more or less similar to the first 50 except a drop in profit based on closing fixed odds.

With a 38% S/R on the top rater we have something to work with. But still a long way to go.
by Oaksnaf
Tue Nov 05, 2019 9:36 pm
 
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Re: OAKSY Doggies Tips

MEADOWS RACE 4

8 SHES FABTASTIC $2.1
1 WYNBURN LUCIFER $3.1
2 BLUE FABIANNA $9.0
6 FOLDING GREEN $16.9
4 TIGER DUSTY $39.3


MEADOWS RACE 7

7 WEBLEC ACE $1.6
8 MIMSTAR $6.9
1 DESTINI CAVALIER $13.0
4 TAMPICO $16.1
5 MIDNIGHT TITAN $19.8
2 ROSIE YAALA $30.2
by Oaksnaf
Wed Nov 06, 2019 8:52 am
 
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Re: OAKSY Doggies Tips

EARLY WGL MARKETS

RACE 1

3 WHY WOODLEIGH $2.8
8 STARLIGHT OLLIE $4.3
7 ZIPPING CEDRIC $4.7
4 SHANLYN SPOT $7.2
1 TEARDROP $20.7
5 ROMEO LAD $111.6

RACE 5

3 AKHENATEN $2.6
4 LARKHILL PRYOR $2.9
1 ALISHA HOOK $8.2
8 IT’S A DATE $15.5
2 SMOOTH TALKER $17.2
6 FEDERAL EXPRESS $49.4

RACE 11

6 PARUMBA TAYLAH $2.9
1 MAGIC MAYA $4.4
7 SURGICAL WALLY $6.7
3 LITTLE BALA $9.2
8 SABAKAT $14.0
2 IONA MISTY $19.2
5 DOUSED IN MUD $36.1
4 BLUEFLASH LENNY $67.9

Fairly confident all 3 top raters should win.
May get egg on face though with comments like that.
by Oaksnaf
Wed Nov 06, 2019 11:06 pm
 
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Re: OAKSY Doggies Tips

WBL R12 tonight is only race.
Tomorrow only HVL/WGL no GEE/Bendigo races suitable.
by Oaksnaf
Thu Nov 07, 2019 6:11 pm
 
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Re: OAKSY Doggies Tips

The #7 has not been performing of late, and does best work on the rail late for mine.
Regarding race selection, each to their own. I am going for consistency with runners having recent form and not suffering injury last start and a fair number of races + valid formline, not those races with hit/miss runners.
by Oaksnaf
Fri Nov 08, 2019 2:49 pm
 
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Re: OAKSY Doggies Tips

MEADOWS RACE 5

1 WINLOCK THOR $3.2
2 DYNA BONNAY $5.4
9 AVALANCHE $8.2
8 ROCK AND ROLL $9.1
7 ROUTE SIXTY SIX $11.3
6 TIGGERLONG TONK $12.5
5 MOGO JET $17.2
3 SPRING TRICK $23.6
by Oaksnaf
Sat Nov 09, 2019 6:45 pm
 
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