Re: The Graham Campbell Forum - AFL Punting / Same Game Mult
Posted: Thu Aug 06, 2020 6:29 pm
Mihocek
Grundy
Parker
Anytime goal scorer $11.50 boosted.
Grundy
Parker
Anytime goal scorer $11.50 boosted.
Bum Crack wrote:About time. Finally got an 8 leg multi.
Lightning McQueen wrote:Bum Crack wrote:About time. Finally got an 8 leg multi.
Details?
Membrey and Sexton shanked my 10 legger last night.
Bum Crack wrote:Lightning McQueen wrote:Bum Crack wrote:About time. Finally got an 8 leg multi.
Details?
Membrey and Sexton shanked my 10 legger last night.
I tried to post the bet slip but comes up with some message about too many pixels.
King brothers, Butler and Rankine anytime goal
Greenwood, Hill, Billings and Weller 15 or more.
Paid $10.80.
Bum Crack wrote:8 legs for tonight.
Tippa, Townsend, Himmelberg and Finlayson anytime goal scorers
Saad, Parish, Ward and Perryman 15 or more disposals.
$15.75.
daysofourlives wrote:Daniels, Snelling, Tippa anytime
GWS win
Under 102.5
20 @ $80
I have much more success with goal kickers around the $2 to $3 mark than the $1.20
I believe its wet there, scoreline could be 3-2 with these teams
Yeah we know[emoji23]daysofourlives wrote:daysofourlives wrote:Daniels, Snelling, Tippa anytime
GWS win
Under 102.5
20 @ $80
I have much more success with goal kickers around the $2 to $3 mark than the $1.20
I believe its wet there, scoreline could be 3-2 with these teams
For clarification i meant 3-2 goals
Bum Crack wrote:8 legs for tonight.
Tippa, Townsend, Himmelberg and Finlayson anytime goal scorers
Saad, Parish, Ward and Perryman 15 or more disposals.
$15.75.
LMA wrote:Just checked my SB history, I've had 15 SGM's this year totalling $100 for 0 collects. Reads like the Crows season.
Dutchy wrote:This thread shows how much Bookies love SGM's
Trader wrote:Dutchy wrote:This thread shows how much Bookies love SGM's
Backing short priced favourites to multi it up to a large collect is one of the worst moves you can make.
15 years ago when I was turning over substantial volume I played around with some mathematical models and it quickly became apparent how bad a strategy it was.
Lets say the average market is framed at 105% in head to head markets, and more like 108% in the exotic bets (players to kick a goal, get 20 disposals, etc).
If you do a 10 leg multi in a 108% market, all of a sudden the bookies edge has gone from 8% to 115% (1.08^10 = 2.15).
That is to say, if the price you are getting on your multi is 20:1, its chances of hitting are closer to 43:1.
You are far better off just finding a bet at long odds and having a crack at it. Both are unlikely, but at least you're only paying the 'vig' or 'juice' once, rather than 10 times on the same bet!