Port Adelaide 2016

[UK Fan]

Its so unfair Essendon have an extra international rookie on their list where Port doesnt.

Obviously this international rookie will give Essendon a massive advantage over the power this season.


Just when you thought PAFC Couldnt get more pathetic.

Lol whos the international rookie at Essendon might I ask?

http://www.essendonfc.com.au/player-pro ... or-mckenna


The Gaelic footballer, from Tyrone in Northern Ireland, signed with the club as a category B rookie


How else do you think Essendon have 45 players on their list when the maximum allowed is 44.

Wasnt worried about the number on the list just interested in whi the international rookie was. Only out of interest really.

No issue stan.

As stated this cat b rookie is why Essendon have more players than Port on their list (which is quite a logical conclusion when u think about it).

And why Port Adelaide and its fans are crying about a horrible injustice.

Pathetic IMHO!!!!

[stan]

To be honest I work with some Port people and havent heard much from them about the issuem in fact when having discussions with them Im the one that seems to bring it up. They just sort of look at me like "yeah and". So I think its a case of the media still running with it at the moment.

[MW]

Kochie is the one beating the drum

[stan]

Kochie is the one beating the drum

Maybe I haven't heard him because I dont watch much of his media or follow him on twitter or anything like that.

[Booney]

Kochie is the one beating the drum

It's his job, fighting for our cause. He obviously flew the flag when asking the AFL to confirm their position, he didn't take the refusal very well, why should he, and he has gone quiet since the weekend when he had his say, rightly so.

[MW]

It was in response to Stan mentioning it's the media running with it rather than Port employees. I fully expect Kochie to go after it.

[stan]

It was in response to Stan mentioning it's the media running with it rather than Port employees. I fully expect Kochie to go after it.

I think its more of a case of me tuning him out.

[RustyCage]

Just slightly pleased about this!

[stan]

Well thats shit. We now lose at least 400 articles of speculation.

[Grahaml]

Reckon he's as important as anyone in that side at the moment. Never really seemed like there would be any doubt and maybe Port worked in some of the money they're saving from Ryder and Monfries into the equation.

One thing that irks me more and more is this thing where some boffins in an office come up with the words and try to make it seem like the player made it all up. I know footballers tend to have little personality when they speak, but what little there was killed, stuffed and preserved before being put up as the real thing.

[valleys07]

What a ripping lad he is! Massive signature- to say I am stoked is an understatement.

Finest of Wines!

[JK]

Booney just picked up cheap Wines and a 3 day growth

[carey]

Surely Dutchy has something negative to say about Wines signing???

[whufc]

Surely Dutchy has something negative to say about Wines signing???

Poor mans Hannerby lol

[RustyCage]

Surely Dutchy has something negative to say about Wines signing???

Only a 2 year extension, if Port weren't a basket case he'd have signed for 4

[carey]

Surely Dutchy has something negative to say about Wines signing???

Poor mans Hannerby lol

I'm just pumped as I think this kid is a jet and COULD turn in to anything!

[valleys07]

2016 PAFC Preview- Part 1:

Reflecting upon what has been (in my opinion) a fairly underwhelming cricket season, I find myself seriously hanging for some footy action 8 days out from the beginning of the NAB challenge. Footy season is sweeping over me like a fever. AFL Prospectus adorns my desk at work as I scour page by page looking for that Supercoach point of difference and Fox Footy adverts have the hair raising on the back of my neck in anticipation. Black, white and teal blood is now pulsating through my veins, I am overcome with excitement (and large amounts of anxiousness) at what lies ahead for the Port Adelaide Football Club in season 2016.

Hawthorn’s immortal achievement of 2015 cannot simply be put down to them being “unbeatable”. We saw a truly unbelievable football club win their 3rd successive premiership the hard way, and becoming undeniably the greatest club since the game’s national expansion, winning their 5th premiership, but first- let’s take a step back to 2011. That season, Champion Data declared Geelong incapable of winning the 2011 premiership due to the amount of players over 29 on their list. Too old, too slow, “how old is too old”? Well, prospectus ended up with egg on their face, and since that premiership- the premier team has an age ranking of second, third, fifth and fourth, not to mention Hawthorn’s premiership team was the oldest premiership team in terms of first 22 selected, in the history of the game! A slow start to their season, compounded with injuries saw them chalk up 6 wins from the first 11 rounds and battle for their spot in the top 4. The dynasty was supposedly over after West Coast demolished them in the Qualifying Final, but similarly to Brisbane in 2003, champion teams rise when their backs are against the wall, and the cream rose to the top on Grand Final day. Hawthorn have the experience on the books heading into 2016 with quality on every line, but I’ll put my balls on the line- they won’t win 4. Their time is up. But it begs the question- how long does a group need to spend together to get the experience required to go all the way? Is Port Adelaide’s window beginning to open now?

Season 2015 for Port Adelaide was a stark reminder of how fickle the game of football can be, and how even the slightest hint of complacency can send you spiralling back down to the rest of the competitions “hopefuls”, and spending another off season dreaming of accomplishing the games pinnacle. A little over 12 months ago Port Adelaide was football’s feel good story, seemingly set to complete the transition from complete and utter basket case to premiers. We had pushed the eventual premiers to the brink in a classic preliminary final, enjoyed a successful trade period securing our biggest name since Jay Schulz in 2009, in Paddy Ryder, and the media was in raptures over our exciting game style dubbing us the most exciting team in the competition to watch. Most had us top 2 certainties, Grand Finalists, and some had us Premiership favourite. So where did it all go wrong?
Stats don’t lie- the 2015 version of Port Adelaide were belted around the contest, ranking a disappointing 13th in clearances, and 12th for contested possessions- both well down on their numbers in 2014. Their ability to effectively move the footy had also fallen away, seeing Port average 8 fewer inside 50’s per game than their opposition (ranking 9th in total for I50 differential), and spending an average of three minutes less in their forward half than their opponents (ranking 7th in total for time in forward half). Port were ranked 13th and 12th in these 2 statistical areas after Round 8- where their season was arguably in tatters after losses to West Coast, Brisbane and Richmond. Port were clear #1 in these categories in 2014. Our inefficient ball movement saw us rank 6th in the competition for points scored (91 ppg) and 8th in the competition for points conceded (85 ppg)- well below the competitions benchmark of Hawthorn with a 103/71 for/against average. Certainly well outside of Kingy’s “recipe for success” it seems.
'
Certainly for me, a thorough look over Port Adelaide’s numbers from season 2015 (as per Champion Data), reveals some horror home truths. Our skills were shocking, we were smashed around the contest, and our team defence which had held us in such good stead throughout 2014, was picked apart ruthlessly by our opposition once we turned the footy over. In particular- the following numbers stood out for me:

• Port ranked 10th in the competition for scores for from turnovers ( 48.8 ), compared to Hawthorn’s #1 ranking of 66.9. We also averaged a goal per game more than Hawthorn for score conceded from turnovers. Hawthorn control the footy as well as any team in the modern game, Port at present are not at the level required.
• Our team defence was shocking once we turned the footy over, or lost contested possession at a stoppage. We conceded almost 6 goals a game from opposition attacking midfielders and conceded 6 goals per game from clearances. Bassett will be a massive inclusion in fixing this area.
• Phil Walsh’s groundball stat. Mock it if you wish but the crows remarkably improved their scoring due to winning the ground ball. The crows finished 2nd in the comp for F50 groundball differential behind Hawthorn courtesy of the work of Betts/Cameron and Breust/Rioli. Port ranked a disappointing 16th for F50 groundball differential, with Port seemingly a “one trick pony” with Wingard as their only damaging small on the score sheet after Robbie Gray spent more time upfield in season 2015- not to mention that opposition teams had structured up by getting numbers back in defence to easily outnumber Port inside their forward 50, resulting in easy rebound 50’s once the ball hit the deck. We were also unable to control the damage caused by opposition smalls, ranking 15th in D50 groundball differential.
• Time in forward half. When we did manage to win the footy and work it forward, opposition teams had structured themselves perfectly to get numbers back to either take a mark, or smash Port once the ball hit the deck and rebound from their defensive 50. Port ranked 11th in the competition for marks inside 50, 16th for F50 groundball diff, and 14th for % of scores per inside 50 (45%). In conjunction with our contested ball differential, the loss of Polec in my opinion, contributed significantly to the speed of ball movement into our forward 50. He will be a massive inclusion for us come 2016.

Whilst Port Adelaide came home strong in the backend of 2015, winning 9 from their last 14, the damage had been done. So the question is, are they better than last year’s results suggest? Was last year the real Port Adelaide, or dare I say this- is there a hidden Port Adelaide underneath, ready to leapfrog the competition ala. Geelong of 2007?

Champion data suggests there are similarities in the progression of both sides. The cats took to the 1999 and 2001 drafts and unearthed the nucleus of their 2007, 2009 and 2011 premiership teams- Joel Corey, Paul Chapman, Cameron Ling, Corey Enright, Jimmy Bartel, James Kelly, Steve Johnson and Gary Ablett. WOW! The cats looked primed to take the competition by storm in the mid 2000’s. They fell 2 kicks short of the 2004 GF after leading at 3 quarter time, lost the 2005 semi-final to the eventual premiers before finishing 10th in 2006. It forced an entire club review, with Mark Thompson only just managing to keep his job heading into season 2007….even 5 games into 2007 and Geelong were 2-3. As they say, the rest is history. Port Adelaide have climbed from deep darkness to get to this point. The 2006 draft netted Robbie Gray, Travis Boak and Justin Westhoff, in 2008 it netted Hamish Hartlett, Matthew Broadbent and Jackson Trengove, with Chad Wingard and Ollie Wines the cream of the first round crop being secured from the 2011 and 2012 abyss years. In total- Port Adelaide has 13 first round selections on its main list, what I understand to be the most of any list in the AFL (happy to be corrected on that stat). In saying this- the same comparison was made between Geelong and Carlton before the 2013 season begun. Carlton had obviously had access to the cream of the 2005, 2006 and 2007 drafts and had made 3 consecutive finals series between 2009-2011, before missing out in 2012 finishing 10th. Whilst it can be argued that Carlton made the finals in 2013 (by default only, courtesy of Essendon’s Poor Governance sanctions), two seasons later and we all know how that chapter ended. Port Adelaide managed to overcome eventual premiers in Hawthorn twice in 2015, but lost to Brisbane and Carlton. Where do they fit in? When will the real Port Adelaide show itself?

[valleys07]

Season 2016- Part 2

The Believers:

Despite their obvious failings in 2015, after their 3 week horror run against West Coast, Richmond and Brisbane- the Power’s fortunes did improve over the back half of the season, recording a 9-5 win loss record at a percentage of 119. Sure- in that block was a loss to cellar dwellars Carlton, but Port also recorded wins against the Bulldogs, a depleted Fremantle and Hawthorn, and narrowly lost to Adelaide. The 2nd half of the season wasn’t necessarily about on field performances and who the Power beat, it was more the discovery of depth players to become important best 22 team members, who wouldn’t have been considered at the start of the season.

Rookie elevation Sam Gray was the standout of this group, having an elite end to the season, particularly between rounds 18-23. Gray ranked top 2 at the club, and top 20 in the competition between R18-23 for disposals, inside 50’s, contested possession and clearances, accumulating 34,37 and 34 disposals in rounds 21-23. Transfer that form into season 2016 on the back of a strong pre-season, and Ken Hinkley has a versatile midfield at his disposal. Whilst discussing midfielders, Brendan Ah Chee showed signs in the final month that he too, can become an important cog in Port’s midfield. 25 touches and 9 score involvements against Hawthorn, on the back of 20 touches and 3 goals in a 3 vote game against GWS shows that the signs are there. These 2 names for mine are particularly important alongside the big guns in Boak, Ebert, Wines and Robbie Gray, as increased midfield depth will provide Hinkley with the flexibility to have Robbie Gray spend more time up forward, where he spent 67% of game time, compared with 43% in 2014. Jake Neade began to look comfortable up forward, kicking 8 goals from his final 6 games, averaging a career high 12 touches per game, and Karl Amon when not the sub, highlighted his potential with a 16 disposal 3 goal performance against the Suns. One of these options must emerge themselves to assist Wingard and compensate for the loss of Monfries in the small forward role, both offensively and defensively.

As far as first 22 is concerned, the Power’s on-ball brigade is impressive and almost the perfect age profile. Lobbe (27), R. Gray (27), Boak (27), Ebert (25), Hartlett (25), Polec (23) and Wines (21), whilst up forward, Jay Schulz is the only listed player over the age of 30, whilst Westhoff (29), Dixon (25), Wingard (22) round out the Power’s go to forwards. With the 9th ranked list in the competition as far as age profile- the Power are still well placed to challenge beyond season 2016.

The sceptics:

Port’s hopes of winning the premiership a year after missing the finals reads like a pipe dream, rather than a distinct possibility. Only 2 teams in the last 20 years in Geelong (2007) and Adelaide (1997) have won the premiership the season after missing the finals. Worse still- numbers in large sample sizes put a glaring spotlight on Port as a premiership pretender. Round 12 2014, Port sat atop of the AFL ladder with a 10-1 win loss record, and had its sights set on it’s first Grand Final berth since 2007. Since that loss to Sydney, Port have won 16 of their last 33 home and away games- 10 fewer than Fremantle, and 9 fewer than Hawthorn and Sydney. What concerns me about this stat is the fact that Port Adelaide’s best players have played in a majority of these games. Whilst Port Adelaide’s top end talent is up there with the best in the competition, and the players uncovered in the 2nd half of season 2015 add valuable versatility- I amongst many pessimistic Port fans will still question our depth and our ability to cover not only Ryder and Monfries, but the loss of a Lobbe, Trengove or Carlile.

The Fixture:

Champion Data has ranked Port’s 2016 fixture 14th in degree of difficulty- and it’s not hard to see why. In 2015 Port were dealt as tough a first 5 weeks as you are likely to see, with the 3 preliminary finalists in Hawthorn, Sydney and North Melbourne, along with top 4 side Fremantle, all in the first 5 week block- but Port’s troubles, funnily enough, came against the predicted winnable games in Brisbane, Carlton, Geelong, Richmond, with narrow wins recorded against Collingwood and Essendon.

So with Port’s struggles in 2015 against sides that joined them outside of the 8, how can any punter go into season 2016 backing Port with any confidence?

The key point of our fixture for mine, again, is our first 5 weeks- 4 of which are at Adelaide Oval- St. Kilda, Adelaide, Essendon and Geelong, with our only road trip being to Startrack Oval to take on GWS in Round 4. Playing 2 finalists from 2015 in the first 8 rounds means that we are a real chance to enter our round 9 clash against the Eagles at 6-2, provided we are mentally focused. Of course, there is also the potential for us to treat our opponents with complete lack of respect, and enter round 9 with our season in tatters at 3-5.

Our 12 games at Adelaide Oval see us take on 5 finalists from the previous season, and 10 games against finalists from 2015, compared to 2015 where we played 13 games against finalists from 2014. We are also scheduled for back to back games at Adelaide Oval 3 times over the course of the season, Rounds 1-3, 15-16 and 21-22. Commercially our Adelaide Oval fixture is also favourable with 6 of our 12 home games played at night. Port Adelaide will also head to every state bar Tasmania, with 2 trips to the MCG. Gotta be happy with that, Power fans!

The List:

At the beginning of season 2014- Champion data had 16 Port Adelaide players rate in the top 35% of their respective position, with 4 players rating “elite”. Fast forward 2 seasons and just 12 players rate in the top 35% (11 excluding Paddy Ryder), with just 2 elite players in Robbie Gray and Chad Wingard. Comparing that to West Coast (6 elite and 16 in the top 35%) and Hawthorn (8 elite, 15 in the top 35%), and Port requires a lift from players in the “average” category (Ebert, Broadbent, Polec, Dixon, Trengove, Carlile) to press for a top 4 berth. Champion Data rates Port Adelaide’s list to be the 5th best in the competition behind Hawthorn, West Coast, Fremantle and Sydney but much like Hawthorn, have a majority of their quality forward of centre. Port Adelaide ranks 3rd in the competition, but must cash in shortly given the age of Schulz, Westhoff and Monfries. Of it’s core group- Port has 15 players aged in the prime age bracket of 25-29, with the quality of this group ranking 5th in the competition.

Port Adelaide’s biggest list concern is defence. Key defenders rank 4th in the competition (thanks to Jack Hombsch), but of Port Adelaide’s 8 small defenders/general defenders, only one player in Jasper Pittard ranks above average. Tom Jonas and Jarman Impey rate below average (bottom 35% of their position), with Jackson Trengove and Bobby Carlile ranking as average (middle 30% of their position).

Valleys’ Final Thoughts:

It’s obvious that CAS has dealt the Power a big blow before the season starts, with Ryder and Monfries being suspended for the season. Port Adelaide has the talent across all lines, the draw is favourable, everything is in place to challenge- but aside from huge amounts of luck with injury to players such as Lobbe/Dixon and Schulz, complacency was Port Adelaide’s biggest enemy in 2015.

Ken Hinkley has publicly declared his desire to scale back the game plan and revert back to the free-flowing style that we saw in 2014. However- whilst it is clear that this team on its day has no problem scoring, it did have season long issues in stopping scores the other way, with team defence needing a massive shake-up if we are to return to the top 8.

Port Adelaide’s strength and conditioning department headed by Darren Burgess is industry leading, so I am backing in their ability to manage our list effectively, and ensure a healthy list and quick recovery from injuries. We are walking a very tight rope with a couple of players- but with an increased focus to avoid complacency, and a favourable draw- Port Adelaide will return to September action for season 2016. Just how far we go? Well luck will decide that fate.

Predicted finish: 4th

[Dutchy]

Surely Dutchy has something negative to say about Wines signing???

Whats he doing in 2019?

[stan]

Surely Dutchy has something negative to say about Wines signing???

Whats he doing in 2019?

Going to Geeloong [emoji12]