2018 AFL Ladder predictions

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Re: 2018 AFL Ladder predictions

Postby amber_fluid » Tue Feb 20, 2018 2:26 pm

MW wrote:
Booney wrote:
bennymacca wrote:
Not really. with the exception of Rockliff (who is injury prone) your recruits are all pretty inconsistent. If watts and motlop can get somewhere near their best then port should be top 2 or 3 but they both could easily be dropped too. And that would severely impact the forward line which has been pretty up and down over the past few years.


Motlop season by season averages ( per game ) last 5 years :

Disposals 17.8,19.5,22,19.4,19.3
Goals 1.0,1.8,1.3,1.5, 0.96
Tackles 1.8,1.5,3.4,2.4,2.5

Looks fairly consistent?


Why did Geelong want him gone so badly then


Same reason Melbourne wanted Watts gone............
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Re: 2018 AFL Ladder predictions

Postby bertiebeatle » Tue Feb 20, 2018 2:26 pm

Booney wrote:So Adelaide, Sydney, Geelong and Port are seen by most as the top 4, certainly appears to be shaping up that way for most punters too.



Yeah going by the predictions there are 5 main splits for me.

Top 4
5-6
7-11
12-15
16-18
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Re: 2018 AFL Ladder predictions

Postby Booney » Tue Feb 20, 2018 2:35 pm

amber_fluid wrote:
MW wrote:
Booney wrote:
bennymacca wrote:
Not really. with the exception of Rockliff (who is injury prone) your recruits are all pretty inconsistent. If watts and motlop can get somewhere near their best then port should be top 2 or 3 but they both could easily be dropped too. And that would severely impact the forward line which has been pretty up and down over the past few years.


Motlop season by season averages ( per game ) last 5 years :

Disposals 17.8,19.5,22,19.4,19.3
Goals 1.0,1.8,1.3,1.5, 0.96
Tackles 1.8,1.5,3.4,2.4,2.5

Looks fairly consistent?


Why did Geelong want him gone so badly then


Same reason Melbourne wanted Watts gone............


Same reason we chose to move on Trengove, Impey, Ah Chee, all about list management.

Motlop got Geelong pick 19 which they used as part of the Ablett deal. List management wanted Ablett in, had to give something up to get that extra 1st round pick. It was Motlop.

Melbourne wanted more picks in the first two rounds after taking Lewis and Hibberd ( mature age players ) in 2016, they needed some more youth. List management had to give something of value up to get another pick in the 2nd round. It was Watts.

Look deeper lads, look deeper as to why clubs do things, it's not all about what us "experts" think of the player traded.
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Re: 2018 AFL Ladder predictions

Postby valleys07 » Tue Feb 20, 2018 2:37 pm

Stop making sense, David.
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Re: 2018 AFL Ladder predictions

Postby MW » Tue Feb 20, 2018 2:37 pm

Booney wrote:
bennymacca wrote:meaningless stats ftw

screen capture the spreadsheet and post it as a picture seems to work better.

Which teams are we least confident on? Ie calculate their standard deviation

I would guess Port, Melbourne and GWS


Interesting lack of confidence in Port on here, compared to most of the scribes anyway. Interesting, but not surprising.


What reason should people have confidence in Port in 2018?
2017 they couldn't beat a top 8 side all year, failed to win a final against a side who cannot win away (except against Port it seems).
2018, topped up the list with a heap of players their respective clubs no longer wanted. Most being inconsistent performers and yet to prove their worth.
Port are very speculative IMO. Would not surprise me to finish top 4 or bottom 8.
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Re: 2018 AFL Ladder predictions

Postby MW » Tue Feb 20, 2018 2:39 pm

Booney wrote:
Same reason we chose to move on Trengove, Impey, Ah Chee, all about list management.


:lol: :lol:
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Re: 2018 AFL Ladder predictions

Postby amber_fluid » Tue Feb 20, 2018 2:39 pm

That and the fact they both are inconsistent and both have question marks over how hard they actually apply themselves to their job.
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Re: 2018 AFL Ladder predictions

Postby Booney » Tue Feb 20, 2018 2:43 pm

MW wrote:
Booney wrote:
Same reason we chose to move on Trengove, Impey, Ah Chee, all about list management.


:lol: :lol:


Tell me what's so funny?

All three spent time in the SANFL during the year ( Ah Chee rarely seen at AFL level ), two were on significant contracts ( one of them with well publicized off field issues that were mocked endlessly on here as being part of a poor culture and was clearly homesick, Krakouer the other off field indiscretion who is also no longer on our list ).

Now, what's your side of events?
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Re: 2018 AFL Ladder predictions

Postby Booney » Tue Feb 20, 2018 2:45 pm

amber_fluid wrote:That and the fact they both are inconsistent and both have question marks over how hard they actually apply themselves to their job.


Oh yeah, of course. :roll:
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Re: 2018 AFL Ladder predictions

Postby MW » Tue Feb 20, 2018 2:45 pm

Funny part was you think it was Ports choice to move them on...All three wanted out. Port had no choice in the matter.
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Re: 2018 AFL Ladder predictions

Postby bennymacca » Tue Feb 20, 2018 2:50 pm

Booney wrote:
Motlop season by season averages ( per game ) last 5 years :

Disposals 17.8,19.5,22,19.4,19.3
Goals 1.0,1.8,1.3,1.5, 0.96
Tackles 1.8,1.5,3.4,2.4,2.5

Looks fairly consistent?


are you trying to tell me you think motlop is a consistent performer week to week?

Come on Booney. We all see motlop's potential, I would have been happy to have him at the crows, but he has never been a consistent performer.

Booney wrote:Look deeper lads, look deeper as to why clubs do things, it's not all about what us "experts" think of the player traded.


... he says whilst trying to use the most basic of statistics to prove that motlop is a consistent player and rockliff had a bung shoulder for half of last year.
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Re: 2018 AFL Ladder predictions

Postby Booney » Tue Feb 20, 2018 2:51 pm

MW wrote:Funny part was you think it was Ports choice to move them on...All three wanted out. Port had no choice in the matter.


Why did they want out?
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Re: 2018 AFL Ladder predictions

Postby Booney » Tue Feb 20, 2018 2:54 pm

bennymacca wrote:
Booney wrote:Look deeper lads, look deeper as to why clubs do things, it's not all about what us "experts" think of the player traded.


... he says whilst trying to use the most basic of statistics to prove that motlop is a consistent player and rockliff had a bung shoulder for half of last year.


:lol:

Rockliff did have a bung shoulder, that's why it was reconstructed in October, but if he's getting 24 and 5 tackles a game with a bung shoulder in a shit team I'm looking forward to seeing him work in our midfield, fit.

Motlop is inconsistent, his good is very good and his poor is pretty poor, however if he gets 19 and kicks a goal every week ( as his last 5 years average ) then that's a shit load better than what Neade or Impey offered us > should make us a better side.
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Re: 2018 AFL Ladder predictions

Postby amber_fluid » Tue Feb 20, 2018 2:54 pm

Booney wrote:
amber_fluid wrote:That and the fact they both are inconsistent and both have question marks over how hard they actually apply themselves to their job.


Oh yeah, of course. :roll:


Cool.
I’m glad we all agree.

But in all honesty time will tell.........
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Re: 2018 AFL Ladder predictions

Postby MW » Tue Feb 20, 2018 2:54 pm

Booney wrote:
MW wrote:Funny part was you think it was Ports choice to move them on...All three wanted out. Port had no choice in the matter.


Why did they want out?


Trengrove - Lack of opportunities and (IMO) felt pushed out after going above and beyond when Ryder was suspended. Ironically that year killed his Port career
Impey - Wanted to go home
Ah Chee - Wanted more opportunities
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Re: 2018 AFL Ladder predictions

Postby bennymacca » Tue Feb 20, 2018 2:57 pm

Booney wrote:
bennymacca wrote:
Booney wrote:Look deeper lads, look deeper as to why clubs do things, it's not all about what us "experts" think of the player traded.


... he says whilst trying to use the most basic of statistics to prove that motlop is a consistent player and rockliff had a bung shoulder for half of last year.


:lol:

Rockliff did have a bung shoulder, that's why it was reconstructed in October, but if he's getting 24 and 5 tackles a game with a bung shoulder in a shit team I'm looking forward to seeing him work in our midfield, fit.

Motlop is inconsistent, his good is very good and his poor is pretty poor, however if he gets 19 and kicks a goal every week ( as his last 5 years average ) then that's a shit load better than what Neade or Impey offered us > should make us a better side.



Thats my point though, he doesnt do that - he gets 25 and kicks 3, then has two games where he gets 15 and doesnt kick anything.

I do agree that both players are good additions though. But if they play near the bottom of what they are capable of, port wont go anywhere.
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Re: 2018 AFL Ladder predictions

Postby Booney » Tue Feb 20, 2018 2:57 pm

MW wrote:
Booney wrote:
MW wrote:Funny part was you think it was Ports choice to move them on...All three wanted out. Port had no choice in the matter.


Why did they want out?


Trengrove - Lack of opportunities and (IMO) felt pushed out after going above and beyond when Ryder was suspended. Ironically that year killed his Port career
Impey - Wanted to go home
Ah Chee - Wanted more opportunities


So Trengove and Ah Chee didn't see themselves in our best 22 and wanted out. If they were given an indication they were I'd say they'd both still be here.

Impey is a unique case and I think the welfare of the person was put in front of the footballer. A good thing.
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Re: 2018 AFL Ladder predictions

Postby MW » Tue Feb 20, 2018 2:58 pm

Trengove certainly saw himself in the best 22
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Re: 2018 AFL Ladder predictions

Postby Booney » Tue Feb 20, 2018 3:00 pm

bennymacca wrote:
Booney wrote:
bennymacca wrote:
Booney wrote:Look deeper lads, look deeper as to why clubs do things, it's not all about what us "experts" think of the player traded.


... he says whilst trying to use the most basic of statistics to prove that motlop is a consistent player and rockliff had a bung shoulder for half of last year.


:lol:

Rockliff did have a bung shoulder, that's why it was reconstructed in October, but if he's getting 24 and 5 tackles a game with a bung shoulder in a shit team I'm looking forward to seeing him work in our midfield, fit.

Motlop is inconsistent, his good is very good and his poor is pretty poor, however if he gets 19 and kicks a goal every week ( as his last 5 years average ) then that's a shit load better than what Neade or Impey offered us > should make us a better side.



Thats my point though, he doesnt do that - he gets 25 and kicks 3, then has two games where he gets 15 and doesnt kick anything.

I do agree that both players are good additions though. But if they play near the bottom of what they are capable of, port wont go anywhere.


From last years finals side I see Rockliff, Motlop, Jonas ( susp ) coming in for Bonner, Neade and Impey. If that doesn't make us better then I'll be surprised.
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Re: 2018 AFL Ladder predictions

Postby Booney » Tue Feb 20, 2018 3:02 pm

MW wrote:Trengove certainly saw himself in the best 22


It's a sore point for many of us Port Adelaide fans. He stood tall in 2012 when could have left, he carried us in 2016, I think we owed him more looking at it emotionally. Looking at it objectively Clurey is a better proposition at full back and Howard has shown he's more mobile and a better ball user at CHB than Trengove and Trengove just isn't a forward. He wouldn't be in our best 22 this year, not mine anyway.
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