2018 AFL Ladder predictions

[bennymacca]

For a team pushing for the top four this year how is that irrelevant?

This year hasn't started.

its in a predictions thread booney!

[Lightning McQueen]

A lot of pressure and expectation being put on Port, remembering they haven't won a final since 2014

Yeah, I done a mock season and had them finish 7th after the minor round, thought their draw was gonna be tougher, probably still will be.

[Booney]

For a team pushing for the top four this year how is that irrelevant?

This year hasn't started.

its in a predictions thread booney!

Yeah, so you're predicting what happened in the last two years?

[morell]

A lot of pressure and expectation being put on Port, remembering they haven't won a final since 2014

Haha how is that a thing. "Haven't won a final since 2014"

What a random-ass thing to measure against.

Strange comment from someone who preaches "we exist to win premierships"

was about to say the same thing!!

Also havent beaten a top four side (who were top four at the end of the year) since 2015

its not measuring finals wins, that's fine, it's that 2014 is a completely arbitrary line in the sand. Why not pluck how many finals we have won since 2012 instead? If you're going to use "finals won since 2014" as a measurement, then you need to do that to all clubs and benchmark it.

How many finals did Richmond win in the three years before last year?

See? It's meaningless.

You blokes need to take a stats course.

[cracka]

A lot of pressure and expectation being put on Port, remembering they haven't won a final since 2014

Haha how is that a thing. "Haven't won a final since 2014"

What a random-ass thing to measure against.

Strange comment from someone who preaches "we exist to win premierships"

was about to say the same thing!!

Also havent beaten a top four side (who were top four at the end of the year) since 2015

its not measuring finals wins, that's fine, it's that 2014 is a completely arbitrary line in the sand. Why not pluck how many finals we have won since 2012 instead? If you're going to use "finals won since 2014" as a measurement, then you need to do that to all clubs and benchmark it.

How many finals did Richmond win in the three years before last year?

See? It's meaningless.

You blokes need to take a stats course.

Exactly

[MW]

A stats course....my god

[Booney]

A stats course....my god

Imagine the night out to celebrate the end of that one?

[MW]

A stats course....my god

Imagine the night out to celebrate the end of that one?

I can give you the odds of me attending both said course and night out

[Booney]

A stats course....my god

Imagine the night out to celebrate the end of that one?

I can give you the odds of me attending both said course and night out

I don't want odds mate, I want a set of parameters laid down to establish the probability.

[MW]

3/5ths of 5/8ths of f..k all chance

[amber_fluid]

A stats course....my god

Imagine the night out to celebrate the end of that one?

I can give you the odds of me attending both said course and night out

I don't want odds mate, I want a set of parameters laid down to establish the probability.

My old man always told me that three fifths of f*ck all is still f*ck all.

[bennymacca]

its not measuring finals wins, that's fine, it's that 2014 is a completely arbitrary line in the sand. Why not pluck how many finals we have won since 2012 instead? If you're going to use "finals won since 2014" as a measurement, then you need to do that to all clubs and benchmark it.

How many finals did Richmond win in the three years before last year?

See? It's meaningless.

You blokes need to take a stats course.

so you think that a team's strength last year is in no way correlated to the strength of the team this year? (as well as many other factors)

never heard of bayes theorem?

you may need to take a stats course to learn about it

[FlyingHigh]

Sydney
Port
Adelaide
Richmond
GWS
Melbourne
Essendon
Geelong

Hawthorn
Western Bulldogs
St Kilda
Collingwood
Freo
Brisbane
West Coast
Carlton
North Melbourne
Gold Coast

[Lightning McQueen]

My old man always told me that three fifths of f*ck all is still f*ck all.

My old man always told me that one day I will amount to something, I sure proved him wrong.

[PatowalongaPirate]

History suggests a minimum of two changes to the top 8 year on year and it would appear West Coast and the Bombers are the most vulnerable. However, I am going to back Essendon to play finals again.

GWS
Adelaide
Geelong
Sydney
Western Bulldogs
Port
Essendon
Collingwood

St Kilda
Melbourne
West Coast
Richmond
Fremantle
Hawthorn
Nth Melbourne
Brisbane
Carlton
Gold Coast

[Booney]

Whilst I haven't put it in my ladder I've got a funny gut feel about the Bulldogs and Richmond and I've got nothing to back it up other than the feeling in my waters.

Dogs to rise up, Richmond to fall over....I don't think it will happen but it's a thought I keep having when looking at the year ahead.

[Lightning McQueen]

Whilst I haven't put it in my ladder I've got a funny gut feel about the Bulldogs and Richmond and I've got nothing to back it up other than the feeling in my waters.

Dogs to rise up, Richmond to fall over....I don't think it will happen but it's a thought I keep having when looking at the year ahead.

The Demons are my smokey.

[Booney]

Whilst I haven't put it in my ladder I've got a funny gut feel about the Bulldogs and Richmond and I've got nothing to back it up other than the feeling in my waters.

Dogs to rise up, Richmond to fall over....I don't think it will happen but it's a thought I keep having when looking at the year ahead.

The Demons are my smokey.

Melbourne are a joke, they play the big tough guys on field with Lewis, Viney and Vince all throwing their weight around and then they get the players association to tell the coaches as SAS course is too tough for their preseason. They're still the rabble they've been for decades.

[Spargo]

Whilst I haven't put it in my ladder I've got a funny gut feel about the Bulldogs and Richmond and I've got nothing to back it up other than the feeling in my waters.

Dogs to rise up, Richmond to fall over....I don't think it will happen but it's a thought I keep having when looking at the year ahead.

The Demons are my smokey.

Melbourne are a joke, they play the big tough guys on field with Lewis, Viney and Vince all throwing their weight around and then they get the players association to tell the coaches as SAS course is too tough for their preseason. They're still the rabble they've been for decades.

I simply don’t rate Goodwin, how he’s an AFL head coach beggars belief in my books.

[Lightning McQueen]

I'll leave the room then, sorry.