2018 AFL Ladder predictions

[bennymacca]

Having taken a pot shot at Daisy, its only fair to put my list up for scrutiny. I see it as 3 distinct sets of 6 clubs (top 6, middle 6 & bottom 6)

Top 6 - Adelaide, Port, GWS, Geelong, Sydney & Richmond

Middle 6 - Hawthorn, West Bulldogs, West Coast, Essendon, Melbourne & St. Kilda

Bottom 6 - Carlton, Brisbane, Gold Coast, North, Freo & Collingwood.

Reckon you are right about these groupings.

I might have collingwood in the middle 7 though.

And there is usually at least one team that jumps out of that middle pack to contend for top four - Reckon the dogs (again) or Melbourne are the most likely

[daysofourlives]

Having taken a pot shot at Daisy, its only fair to put my list up for scrutiny. I see it as 3 distinct sets of 6 clubs (top 6, middle 6 & bottom 6)

Top 6 - Adelaide, Port, GWS, Geelong, Sydney & Richmond

Middle 6 - Hawthorn, West Bulldogs, West Coast, Essendon, Melbourne & St. Kilda

Bottom 6 - Carlton, Brisbane, Gold Coast, North, Freo & Collingwood.

Reckon you are right about these groupings.

I might have collingwood in the middle 7 though.

And there is usually at least one team that jumps out of that middle pack to contend for top four - Reckon the dogs (again) or Melbourne are the most likely

Think you are right about always that one team that makes a big jump to top 4. Take away the 1st 6 games of last season which im putting down to 6 years of fatigue and the Hawks were easily the best performed team of anyone outside Sydney, Richmond and Adelaide, for that reason i am tipping a return to the top 4.
Cant see West Coast even going close to hanging onto a spot in the 8 unless Rioli and Ryan are guns from Rd 1.
North will be ok, not great and not bad around the 12.
GWS are the big sliders for me, it will only take 2 injuries, they have no depth, no run from defence with the loss of Williams and Wilson. Shaw is finished, if they play Deledio or Griffen back there they have no hope so they will be relying on 1st year players Cumming or Finlayson i think it is to prvide run from defence, its arguably the most important position on the field and you need a couple of them so that when one gets tagged out someone else picks up the slack. Big question mark over their ruck but i think Lobb will be up to it. Too many 1st round draftees that think their shit dont stink, not enough role players.

[Bombers4EVA]

1. Adelaide
2. Sydney
3. Geelong
4. Richmond
5. Essendon
6. GWS
7. Melbourne
8. Hawthorn

9. Western Bulldogs
10. Port
11 St. Kilda
12. West Coast
13. Fremantle
14. Collingwood
15. Carlton
16. Brisbane
17. North Melb
18. Gold Coast

[Rik E Boy]

1. Geelong
2. Adelaide
3. Richmond
4. Melbourne
5. Sydney
6. Western Bulldogs
7. Essendon
8. GWS

9. Port
10. St Kilda
11. Hawthorn
12. Collingwood
13. Fremantle
14. North
15. West Coast
16. Brisbane
17. Carlton
18. Gold Coast

regards,

REB

[Dutchy]

GWS
Geelong
Adelaide
Sydney
Bulldogs
Essendon
Port
Richmond

Hawthorn
West Coast
St Kilda
Melbourne
North Melb
Brisbane
Collingwood
Fremantle
Carlton
Gold Coast

[bertiebeatle]

So lads, have had a bit of extra free time at work and have collated all our predictions together to see what we have come up with between ourselves so far.

So the top part shows sorted by Average and where each team will finish based by our predictions by average.

The bottom part shows what it looks like sorting by the median. Have done one by the median so some club's averages have been skewed by 1 or 2 predictions. Been a couple quiet days so thought i would have a play around with some numbers!!

Team Average Median
1 Adelaide 1 1 2 3 1 1 1 3 1 3 1 2 3 1.77 1
2 Sydney 4 2 3 1 3 3 2 4 3 6 2 5 4 3.23 3
3 Geelong 2 3 5 4 2 5 3 9 4 1 3 1 2 3.38 3
4 Port 3 4 1 2 9 4 4 5 2 4 10 9 7 4.92 4
5 GWS 6 6 11 5 6 2 6 1 6 2 6 8 1 5.08 6
6 Richmond 5 5 7 7 8 7 5 2 5 5 4 3 8 5.46 5
7 Essendon 7 9 6 6 4 9 8 10 8 8 5 7 6 7.15 7
8 Bulldogs 8 8 8 10 5 7 9 8 9 9 9 6 5 7.77 8
9 Melbourne 11 7 9 8 7 6 10 7 7 10 7 4 12 8.08 7
10 Hawthorn 9 11 4 11 10 13 11 6 11 12 8 11 9 9.69 11
11 St.Kilda 10 10 10 9 12 14 7 14 10 11 11 10 11 10.69 10
12 WC 13 13 13 12 14 10 13 12 12 7 12 15 10 12.00 12
13 Collingwood 12 12 16 15 11 12 12 16 13 14 14 12 15 13.38 13
14 Freo 14 16 15 13 15 15 14 13 14 13 13 13 16 14.15 14
15 Brisbane 15 14 12 14 13 16 15 11 15 17 16 16 14 14.46 15
16 North 18 17 14 17 17 11 16 17 16 16 17 14 13 15.62 16
17 Carlton 16 15 17 16 16 18 18 15 17 15 15 17 17 16.31 16
18 GC 17 18 18 18 18 17 17 18 18 18 18 18 18 17.77 18


Team Average Median
1 Adelaide 1 1 2 3 1 1 1 3 1 3 1 2 3 1.77 1
2 Sydney 4 2 3 1 3 3 2 4 3 6 2 5 4 3.23 3
3 Geelong 2 3 5 4 2 5 3 9 4 1 3 1 2 3.38 3
4 Port 3 4 1 2 9 4 4 5 2 4 10 9 7 4.92 4
5 Richmond 5 5 7 7 8 7 5 2 5 5 4 3 8 5.46 5
6 GWS 6 6 11 5 6 2 6 1 6 2 6 8 1 5.08 6
7 Essendon 7 9 6 6 4 9 8 10 8 8 5 7 6 7.15 7
8 Melbourne 11 7 9 8 7 6 10 7 7 10 7 4 12 8.08 7
9 Bulldogs 8 8 8 10 5 7 9 8 9 9 9 6 5 7.77 8
10 St.Kilda 10 10 10 9 12 14 7 14 10 11 11 10 11 10.69 10
11 Hawthorn 9 11 4 11 10 13 11 6 11 12 8 11 9 9.69 11
12 WC 13 13 13 12 14 10 13 12 12 7 12 15 10 12.00 12
13 Collingwood 12 12 16 15 11 12 12 16 13 14 14 12 15 13.38 13
14 Freo 14 16 15 13 15 15 14 13 14 13 13 13 16 14.15 14
15 Brisbane 15 14 12 14 13 16 15 11 15 17 16 16 14 14.46 15
16 North 18 17 14 17 17 11 16 17 16 16 17 14 13 15.62 16
17 Carlton 16 15 17 16 16 18 18 15 17 15 15 17 17 168 16
18 GC 17 18 18 18 18 17 17 18 18 18 18 18 18 17.77 18

[bertiebeatle]

Well that didn't work how i wanted it. Who knows the best way to copy from Exel onto here

[bennymacca]

meaningless stats ftw

screen capture the spreadsheet and post it as a picture seems to work better.

Which teams are we least confident on? Ie calculate their standard deviation

I would guess Port, Melbourne and GWS

[Booney]

Well that didn't work how i wanted it. Who knows the best way to copy from Exel onto here

Copy it to a word, pdf it, upload the pdf?

[Booney]

meaningless stats ftw

screen capture the spreadsheet and post it as a picture seems to work better.

Which teams are we least confident on? Ie calculate their standard deviation

I would guess Port, Melbourne and GWS

Interesting lack of confidence in Port on here, compared to most of the scribes anyway. Interesting, but not surprising.

[bertiebeatle]

This one should work guys. Top one is the average, 2nd one sorted by median

[Booney]

So Adelaide, Sydney, Geelong and Port are seen by most as the top 4, certainly appears to be shaping up that way for most punters too.

[bennymacca]

meaningless stats ftw

screen capture the spreadsheet and post it as a picture seems to work better.

Which teams are we least confident on? Ie calculate their standard deviation

I would guess Port, Melbourne and GWS

Interesting lack of confidence in Port on here, compared to most of the scribes anyway. Interesting, but not surprising.

Not really. with the exception of Rockliff (who is injury prone) your recruits are all pretty inconsistent. If watts and motlop can get somewhere near their best then port should be top 2 or 3 but they both could easily be dropped too. And that would severely impact the forward line which has been pretty up and down over the past few years.

[Booney]

Rockliff's first year he played one game, since then he's averaged over 19 games per season. Injury prone?

[bennymacca]

Rockliff's first year he played one game, since then he's averaged over 19 games per season. Injury prone?

Firstly, he has missed 17 games in the last 4 years, and only played a full season once - that is not very durable


Secondly - It was pretty clear Rocky played with a bung shoulder for most of the last year. His output was severely restricted, if he was playing in a side that wasnt so young he would have been shipped off mid season for surgery

Everyone who picked him up in fantasy mid year will know this

[Booney]

Not really. with the exception of Rockliff (who is injury prone) your recruits are all pretty inconsistent. If watts and motlop can get somewhere near their best then port should be top 2 or 3 but they both could easily be dropped too. And that would severely impact the forward line which has been pretty up and down over the past few years.

Motlop season by season averages ( per game ) last 5 years :

Disposals 17.8,19.5,22,19.4,19.3
Goals 1.0,1.8,1.3,1.5, 0.96
Tackles 1.8,1.5,3.4,2.4,2.5

Looks fairly consistent?

[Booney]

Rockliff's first year he played one game, since then he's averaged over 19 games per season. Injury prone?

Firstly, he has missed 17 games in the last 4 years, and only played a full season once - that is not very durable

Secondly - It was pretty clear Rocky played with a bung shoulder for most of the last year. His output was severely restricted, if he was playing in a side that wasnt so young he would have been shipped off mid season for surgery

Everyone who picked him up in fantasy mid year will know this

So you're saying we've picked up a bloke who was "severely restricted" in his output last year yet still averaged 24 touches, 5 marks and 5.8 tackles per game? Seems like a handy pick up then. Cheers.

[MW]

For Brisbane.

[MW]

Not really. with the exception of Rockliff (who is injury prone) your recruits are all pretty inconsistent. If watts and motlop can get somewhere near their best then port should be top 2 or 3 but they both could easily be dropped too. And that would severely impact the forward line which has been pretty up and down over the past few years.

Motlop season by season averages ( per game ) last 5 years :

Disposals 17.8,19.5,22,19.4,19.3
Goals 1.0,1.8,1.3,1.5, 0.96
Tackles 1.8,1.5,3.4,2.4,2.5

Looks fairly consistent?

Why did Geelong want him gone so badly then

[Booney]

Not really. with the exception of Rockliff (who is injury prone) your recruits are all pretty inconsistent. If watts and motlop can get somewhere near their best then port should be top 2 or 3 but they both could easily be dropped too. And that would severely impact the forward line which has been pretty up and down over the past few years.

Motlop season by season averages ( per game ) last 5 years :

Disposals 17.8,19.5,22,19.4,19.3
Goals 1.0,1.8,1.3,1.5, 0.96
Tackles 1.8,1.5,3.4,2.4,2.5

Looks fairly consistent?

Why did Geelong want him gone so badly then

Not my department.