2018 AFL Ladder predictions

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Re: 2018 AFL Ladder predictions

Postby Rik E Boy » Fri Feb 23, 2018 4:59 pm

Booney wrote:
MW wrote:StK have no backbone, neither do Melbourne
I'd expect Hawks and Collingwood to push up before those two


St Kilda and Melbourne have, for far too long, been devoid of any success. The playing group and coaches would want it, they'd want to be a part of the action but they just don't seem to have the ability to find the extra little bit to push them up into the finals race.

It's like 10th is better than 12th so we're ok with it. Mediocrity has been accepted for too long, they need generational change and maybe they've been though it and are ready to take the next step.

Melbourne, everyone knows my views on them, especially their on field leaders, they don't stack up against the competitions best leaders at all.

Hawthorn will get more this year from Rioli, Birchall, Frawley, Ceglar....but I think they're going to be very reliant on a group that are another year older and closer to the end than the beginning. Need big, big years from Roughy, Gunston, Rioli, Siciliy and Impey to hit the scoreboard enough.

Collingwood? Ha! Watch them play the boundary line to a baron forward line once again. No chance to play finals.


Rioli LOL. Absolute coat tail rider. Birchall, cooked. Frawley..not just the nephew of the spud. Who is going to win the contested ball. No chance.

regards,

REB
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Re: 2018 AFL Ladder predictions

Postby morell » Fri Feb 23, 2018 4:59 pm

I don't see Hawthorn getting anywhere near the top end. Lost their elite older players and are in rebuild mode. Scrape in to the 8 perhaps...
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Re: 2018 AFL Ladder predictions

Postby gadj1976 » Fri Feb 23, 2018 11:06 pm

MW wrote:Geelong have gained Ablett into a side that lost a prelim. With their home ground advantage (in the minor rd at least...) They're not missing the eight.


Geelong have lost Mackie and Lonergan in defence and that will mean Taylor - who was too slow last year to play back to go to defence (unless they've had someone in the ressies I'm not aware of) and a 33/34 yo who's now got heaps of injuries into the midfield/forward set up. They're a huge risk.

I've tipped them NOT to make the 8 but of course that will take some team to step up and take their place. It's a stab but I'm prepared to risk Geelong. I just wonder what Stevie J, Chappy and a few others that got moved on think of the Ablett deal.

It could fall apart very quickly if Ablett gets injured early!
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Re: 2018 AFL Ladder predictions

Postby valleys07 » Sat Feb 24, 2018 12:17 pm

1. Adelaide
2. Sydney
3. GWS
4. Essendon
5. Port
6. Richmond
7. West Coast
8. St. Kilda

9. Melbourne
10. Geelong
11. Western Bulldogs
12. Hawthorn
13. North Melbourne
14. Collingwood
15. Fremantle
16. Brisbane
17. Carlton
18. Gold Coast
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Re: 2018 AFL Ladder predictions

Postby Robran » Sat Feb 24, 2018 8:55 pm

valleys07 wrote:1. Adelaide
2. Sydney
3. GWS
4. Essendon
5. Port
6. Richmond
7. West Coast
8. St. Kilda

9. Melbourne
10. Geelong
11. Western Bulldogs
12. Hawthorn
13. North Melbourne
14. Collingwood
15. Fremantle
16. Brisbane
17. Carlton
18. Gold Coast


1. Sydney
2. Adelaide
3. Port
4. Gws
5. Geelong
6. Richmond
7. Melbourne
8. St kilda

9. W coast
10. Essendon
11. Hawthorn
12. W bulldogs
13. Freo
14. Collingwood
15. Carlton
16. Brisbane
17. Nth Melb
18. Gold coast
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Re: 2018 AFL Ladder predictions

Postby Rik E Boy » Mon Feb 26, 2018 12:52 pm

valleys07 wrote:1. Adelaide
2. Sydney
3. GWS
4. Essendon
5. Port
6. Richmond
7. West Coast
8. St. Kilda

9. Melbourne
10. Geelong
11. Western Bulldogs
12. Hawthorn
13. North Melbourne
14. Collingwood
15. Fremantle
16. Brisbane
17. Carlton
18. Gold Coast


Catters top four, maybe Melbourne too as the bolter. GWS have no Wilson, Williams or Mumford and have lost up and comer Settlefield for the year. I reckon they could miss the four ahead of the Cats. West Coast are utter tosh won't make the eight and St Kilda will finish where they did last year. Top four is mostly like the same as last year but with a different Sydney side.

regards,

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Re: 2018 AFL Ladder predictions

Postby hawks21 » Mon Feb 26, 2018 1:11 pm

1. Sydney
2. Adelaide
3. Geelong
4. Richmond
5. GWS
6. Port
7. Essendon
8. Melbourne

9. St kilda
10. W bulldogs
11. Hawthorn
12. West Coast
13. Freo
14. Collingwood
15. Carlton
16. Brisbane
17. Nth Melb
18. Gold coast

I think the bottom 4 are in for a long year. The gap between the top 8 and bottom 4 is as big as ever IMO. Don't think there will be much separating 7th and 11th this year either. All those teams are quite even IMO.
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Re: 2018 AFL Ladder predictions

Postby Booney » Mon Feb 26, 2018 1:39 pm

hawks21 wrote:I think the bottom 4 are in for a long year. The gap between the top 8 and bottom 4 is as big as ever IMO. Don't think there will be much separating 7th and 11th this year either. All those teams are quite even IMO.


Yep, good call mate.

North have thrown the baby out with the bath water in full rebuild, Carlton are still neck deep in shit creek and losing Docherty hurts them when they need to get it out of defence lots, Gold Coast look like they've finally got the house in order off field so they can start another 5 year plan to build on field and of the 4 I think Brisbane are going to gain immensely from another year under Fagan and Hodge will be huge for their back half. Of the 4 I think they're the only one who think it's a light at the end of the tunnel, the other 3 hope it's a train. ;)
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Re: 2018 AFL Ladder predictions

Postby Booney » Tue Mar 06, 2018 8:46 am

I'll post these daily as they come along on the site, Rohan Connolly looking at the ladder from the worst spot to the best.
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Re: 2018 AFL Ladder predictions

Postby Booney » Tue Mar 06, 2018 8:46 am

GOLD COAST
2017 record: 6 wins, 16 losses (17th)
List age ranking (oldest to youngest): 18th
List experience ranking (most to fewest games): 16th
Footyology draw ranking (easiest to hardest): 6th

THE INS
Lachie Weller (Fremantle), Aaron Young (Port Adelaide), Harrison Wigg (Adelaide), Wil Powell (Claremont), Charlie Ballard (Sturt), Brayden Crossley (Palm Beach Currumbin), Connor Nutting (Broadbeach), Josh Jaska (Geelong Falcons), Nick Holman (Central District), Jacob Dawson (Palm Beach Currumbin), Jacob Heron (Cairns Saints)

THE OUTS
Gary Ablett (Geelong), Adam Saad (Essendon), Brandon Matera (Fremantle), Trent McKenzie (delisted/Port Adelaide), Matt Shaw (delisted/Carlton), Jarrad Grant (delisted), Mitch Hallahan (delisted), Keegan Brooksby (delisted), Ryan Davis (delisted), Cameron Loersch (delisted), Daniel Currie (delisted)

THE BEST 22
B: Kade Kolodjashnij, Steven May, Sean Lemmens
HB: Jarrod Harbrow, Rory Thompson, Pearce Hanley
C: Touk Miller, Jarryd Lyons, Aaron Hall
HF: Jack Martin, Peter Wright, Callum Ah Chee
F: Ben Ainsworth, Tom Lynch, Sam Day
Foll: Jarrod Witts, David Swallow, Lachie Weller
Inter: Aaron Young, Matt Rosa, Jack Bowes, Brayden Fiorini
Emerg: Michael Barlow, Alex Sexton, Jesse Joyce

THE PROGNOSIS
The good news is that first-year coach Stuart Dew, particularly given the departure of Gary Ablett, a man whom for so long pretty much was the Suns, has effectively a blank canvas with which to work in 2018. The bad news is it’s going to take some time to paint anything of substance.

It’s not that Gold Coast doesn’t have talent. Besides established stars Tom Lynch, Steven May, Aaron Hall, Jarrod Witts, a real up-and-comer in Peter Wright and a couple of handy imports in Lachie Weller and Aaron Young, there’s a clutch of kids like Touk Miller, Ben Ainsworth Jack Martin, Callum Ah Chee, Jack Bowes, Brayden Fiorini and Will Brodie who can definitely play.

They’ll have another virtual recruit in key position player Sam Day, who has returned from a serious hip injury and will be a welcome addition to a forward set-up which lacked some serious teeth last season.

Key defender Rory Thompson is another about whom fingers will be crossed. Very capable, leg injuries held him to only seven games last season, and indeed, he hasn’t played any more than 14 in any of the last three years.

Throw Day and Thompson into a spine containing Lynch and Wright and Gold Coast looks much, much better on paper. But so often with the Suns, perception and reality have differed vastly.

There’s always been a softish underbelly to the Suns, and it hardly got any tougher under previous coach Rodney Eade, Gold Coast ritually completely disappearing from matches and perennially weak in the harder aspects of the game.

That mental fragility was underlined in some absolute poundings in 2017, most notably at the hands of Port Adelaide (115 and 72 points), GWS (102), Adelaide (67) and Sydney (67).

And there’s challenges others than just good opponents for Gold Coast in 2018, with the Commonwealth Games forcing them off their Metricon Stadium home until round 11 in early June. The game might already be well and truly up by then.

Perhaps, like Paul Roos initially at Melbourne, Dew’s first focus will be on at least shaving a fair whack from the points conceded column. And as a long-time Sydney assistant coach, he’s had plenty of practice in drilling his players in proficiency at the contest.

Defensive running might be another focus, for the often handball-happy Suns too often have been a lot keener to do the hard yards running and linking up towards goals than away from them.

Ultimately, the credibility of an entire football club, not just a team, is now on the line at Metricon Stadium. I think Dew might have some successful in at least making the Suns harder to play against. But there’s a still a long way to go, even from there.

THE PREDICTION
18th. Might pinch the odd win here and there, particularly in the run home, but a wooden spoon still looms.

THE LADDER SO FAR…
18. GOLD COAST
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Re: 2018 AFL Ladder predictions

Postby Booney » Tue Mar 06, 2018 8:47 am

FREMANTLE
2017 record: 8 wins, 14 losses (14th)
List age ranking (oldest to youngest): 11th
List experience ranking (most to fewest games): 9th
Footyology draw ranking (easiest to hardest): 8th

THE INS
Nathan Wilson (GWS), Brandon Matera (Gold Coast), Andrew Brayshaw (Sandringham Dragons), Adam Cerra (Eastern Ranges), Hugh Dixon (Tigers FC – TSL), Mitch Crowden (Sturt), Tom North (Eastern Ranges), Lloyd Meek (GWV Rebels), Sam Switkowski (Box Hill Hawks), Scott Jones (East Perth), Bailey Banfield (Claremont), Stefan Giro (Norwood)

THE OUTS
Hayden Crozier (Western Bulldogs), Harley Balic (Melbourne), Lachie Weller (Gold Coast), Shane Yarran (retired), Zac Dawson (retired), Garrick Ibbotson (retired), Zac Clarke (delisted), Jonathon Griffin (delisted), Sam Collins (delisted), Josh Deluca (delisted), Matthew Uebergang (delisted), Nick Suban (delisted)

THE BEST 22
B: Lee Spurr, Michael Johnson, Griffin Logue
HB: Nathan Wilson, Joel Hamling, Connor Blakely
C: Bradley Hill, David Mundy, Stephen Hill
HF: Michael Walters, Brennan Cox, Harley Bennell
F: Shane Kersten, Cam McCarthy, Hayden Ballantyne
Foll: Aaron Sandilands, Nat Fyfe, Lachie Neale
Inter: Brandon Matera, Darcy Tucker, Cam Sutcliffe, Alex Pearce
Emerg: Sean Darcy, Ethan Hughes, Andrew Brayshaw

THE PROGNOSIS
AFL football changes so quickly these days that what wasn’t all that long ago can seem centuries. In many ways, it’s hard to believe it’s less than two-and-a-half years ago Fremantle was heading into a preliminary final having finished on top of the ladder with more wins than any rival.

The Dockers have won only 12 of 44 games since then, finished 16th and 14th on the ladder, and their best 22 listed here is more than 50 per cent a different line-up to that which lost that 2015 grand final spot play-off to Hawthorn.

At that moment, Fremantle had the third-oldest list in the AFL and third-most games experienced. Heading into 2018, those rankings are 11th and ninth. Yet there’s still some turning over to be done by coach Ross Lyon. And there’s still much dependence on the older hands in the line-up.

Despite the rebuilding, the Dockers still have six players on the list older than 30, the most of any club. And several are still pivotal to their fortunes, most obviously ruckman Aaron Sandilands, who, along with Brownlow medallist Nat Fyfe, are the pair most responsible for their clearance work.

Young ruck Sean Darcy is an emerging talent, draftees Andrew Brayshaw and Adam Cerra can help Fyfe, but it’s the stars who are still going to be doing the bulk of the work.

And Fremantle has plenty of issues to correct, most glaringly a lack of skill and a relatively impotent forward set up.

The Dockers have had major problems both in taking the ball from defence to attack, and in scoring from the turnovers they force. Two recruits can help that, former Giant Nathan Wilson a proven defensive rebounder, and Brandon Matera’s talents as a small forward still largely untapped.

But Lyon needs to get a lot, lot more from his key forwards this season, Cam McCarthy, Shane Kersten and Matt Taberner underwhelming both as marking and goalkicking forces thus far.

Only Carlton scored fewer points than the Dockers last season, and only Brisbane had a worse percentage, four of their eight wins by less than a goal and three of their defeats by 100 points or more, uncharted territory for a coach like Lyon who prides himself on his team’s defensive strengths.

It’s not that there isn’t emerging talent. Darcy is an obvious successor to Sandilands, Brennan Cox shows plenty as a future key forward, Blakely showed plenty used in defence towards the end of 2017 and Griffin Logue, Darcy Tucker and Ethan Hughes have all had their moments.

It’s how quickly any of them can become key parts of the Freo machine which is the issue, and the fact Blakely was the only one of the younger brigade to finish in the top 10 of the best and fairest last season indicates most still have a fair way to go.

THE PREDICTION
17th. It’s been a tough couple of years for Fremantle and it might get tougher still for at least another season as the Dockers’ rebuild continues.

THE LADDER SO FAR (click on team to read)
17. FREMANTLE
18. GOLD COAST
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Re: 2018 AFL Ladder predictions

Postby Booney » Tue Mar 06, 2018 8:47 am

CARLTON
2017 record: 6 wins, 16 losses (16th)
List age ranking (oldest to youngest): 13th
List experience ranking (most to fewest games): 12th
Footyology draw ranking (easiest to hardest): 4th

THE INS
Darcy Lang (Geelong), Matthew Kennedy (GWS), Matthew Lobbe (Port Adelaide), Aaron Mullett (North Melbourne), Paddy Dow (Bendigo Pioneers), Lochie O’Brien (Bendigo Pioneers), Tom De Koning (Dandenong Stingrays), Angus Schumacher (Bendigo Pioneers), Jarrod Garlett (South Fremantle), Cam O’Shea (Northern Blues), Matt Shaw (Gold Coast), Cillian McDaid (Galway, Ireland)

THE OUTS
Bryce Gibbs (Adelaide), Dennis Armfield (retired), Kristian Jaksch (delisted), Liam Sumner (delisted), Andrew Gallucci (delisted), Daniel Gorringe (retired), Matthew Korcheck (retired), Dylan Buckley (delisted/GWS), Rhys Palmer (delisted), Ciaran Sheehan (delisted), Simon White (delisted), Blaine Boekhorst (delisted), Billie Smedts (delisted)

THE BEST 22
B: Lachie Plowman, Jacob Weitering, Alex Silvagni
HB: Kade Simpson, Liam Jones, Caleb Marchbank
C: Sam Petrevski-Seton, Ed Curnow, Matthew Kennedy
HF: Jed Lamb, Charlie Curnow, Dale Thomas
F: Jack Silvagni, Levi Casboult, Matthew Wright
Foll: Matthew Kreuzer, Patrick Cripps, Marc Murphy
Inter: Tom Williamson, Zac Fisher, David Cuningham, Jarrod Pickett
Emerg: Harry McKay, Jarrod Garlett, Aaron Mullett

THE PROGNOSIS
Few, if any, clubs have turned over their senior list at the rate Carlton has in recent years, another 13 players departing Ikon Park since the end of 2017. Brendon Bolton is only entering his third year as coach of the Blues, but already the list with which he is working is exactly 50 per cent different to that with which he began 2016.

It’s been a necessary rebuild, but at the same time, one which sees Carlton still grappling with developing the sort of synergy that the best teams have as second nature. And at time it’s made the Blues’ progress difficult to assess.

Where do they stand headed into 2018? Well, six wins last year was one less than previously, but there was tangible progress nonetheless, with the generational change continuing apace, and on that score, real results delivered.

Carlton debuted no fewer than seven players last season, and five of their young guns – Caleb Marchbank, Charlie Curnow, Sam Petrevski-Seton, David Cuningham and Jack Silvagni – won Rising Star nominations.

That was exciting at least, even if aesthetically, Carlton often wasn’t. Bolton had his team playing a slow possession game, the Blues with the highest kick-to-handball ratio in the AFL and on differentials the most uncontested marks.

Scoring was a chore. Indeed, the Blues were the only team last year not to top 100 points in a match at least once, and they finished last for points scored. The upside was they were often difficult to play against, 11 of their defeats by five goals or less.

Clearly, the offensive side of Carlton’s game needs to improve for it to be more competitive against the good teams. But on that score, the Blues aren’t without prospects.

Bryce Gibbs is obviously a huge loss, and defensive playmaker Sam Docherty’s absence for the whole season with a knee injury costly to say the least, but there’s some good “ins” this season, too.

It will be a bonus if midfield draftees Paddy Dow and Lochie O’Brien can have an impact this year, but Aaron Mullett is capable of filling Docherty’s role, while more seasoned pick-ups in Matt Kennedy and Darcy Lang can both offer plenty, Lang in particular having played some of his best football with Geelong in last year’s finals.

There’s cause for hope close to goal, too, and not just in the shape of superstar-in-the-making Charlie Curnow. Harry McKay’s two games late in 2017 offered a glimpse of his strong marking and kicking and he’ll play a lot more this season.

And at the feet of the big men, there might be a bit more excitement with Jarrod Pickett and former Sun Jarrod Garlett potential ground-level support for Petrevski-Seton.

How far can all that take Carlton this year? There’s still plenty of “ifs” and “maybes”, but it’s hard to think the graph won’t at least continue on an upward trajectory, regardless of what ladder position that may bring.

THE PREDICTION
16th. Carlton is certainly capable of a higher finish given a touch of luck and good health, but how quickly the Blues embrace the more offensive parts of the game will have the biggest say.

THE LADDER SO FAR…(click on team to read)
16. CARLTON
17. FREMANTLE
18. GOLD COAST
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Re: 2018 AFL Ladder predictions

Postby Booney » Tue Mar 06, 2018 8:48 am

BRISBANE
2017 record: 5 wins, 17 losses (18th)
List age ranking (oldest to youngest): 17th
List experience ranking (most to fewest games): 14th
Footyology draw ranking (easiest to hardest): 2nd

THE INS
Luke Hodge (Hawthorn), Charlie Cameron (Adelaide), Cameron Rayner (Western Jets), Zac Bailey (Norwood), Brandon Starcevich (East Perth), Toby Wooller (Oakleigh Chargers), Connor Ballenden (Brisbane Lions NEAFL), Jack Payne (Noosa)

THE OUTS
Tom Rockliff (Port Adelaide), Josh Schache (Western Bulldogs), Ryan Harwood (delisted), Jarrad Jansen (delisted), Josh Clayton (delisted), Jonathan Freeman (delisted), Blake Grewar (delisted), Michael Close (delisted), Matt Hammelmann (delisted), Reuben William (delisted)

THE BEST 22
B: Luke Hodge, Harris Andrews, Darcy Gardiner
HB: Alex Witherden, Daniel McStay, Daniel Rich
C: Dayne Zorko, Mitch Robinson, Cameron Rayner
HF: Charlie Cameron, Josh Walker, Lewis Taylor
F: Ryan Lester, Eric Hipwood, Ryan Bastinac
Foll: Stefan Martin, Dayne Beams, Hugh McCluggage
Inter: Allen Christensen, Sam Mayes, Nick Robertson, Rhys Mathieson
Emerg: Jarrod Berry, Jake Barrett, Tom Cutler

THE PROGNOSIS
Despite even the good reports on new coach Chris Fagan, Brisbane in a strictly results sense appeared to have made little progress by the mid-point of 2017, the Lions with just one win from their first 10 games.

Brisbane’s run home, however, was far more encouraging, with four more victories coming in the final dozen matches, plus a couple more narrow defeats. More than that, though, there were more tangible signs that this was a side on the up.

A greater commitment was made in selection terms to the kids with whom the Lions have loaded up, and the likes of Alex Witherden, Hugh McCluggage, Jarrod Berry, Cedric Cox and Jacob Allison had significant game time. The Lions looked a lot more exciting as a result.

There’s still plenty of “ifs” about how quickly the progress continues, but having had that taste of how things could be, plus a draw Footyology has ranked the second-best in the competition this season, it’s not inconceivable to see Brisbane winning significantly more than the five victories of last season.

Luke Hodge is the biggest addition to the ranks, along with Charlie Cameron and No.1 draft pick Cameron Rayner, and it’s the former Hawk skipper’s teaching abilities as well as his own obvious talents which could have as profound an impact on a score of players.

Allen Christensen, who hasn’t played since mid-2016, is another virtual recruit, while Mitch Robinson didn’t turn out after round seven last season. In the context of what is still the AFL’s second-youngest list, they are inclusions which can’t be underestimated.

As significant as the kids whom Brisbane began to invest in more heavily last year was the gradual evolution of a game style not all that different to that of Hawthorn, not surprising given Fagan’s history.

Brisbane had a degree of success, too, playing and uncontested kick and mark game, with their disposal efficiency over the back end of the season hovering around 70 per cent. The big deficiency, however, remains in the clinches, where the Lions ranked bottom three for both clearances and contested ball.

There was still ultimately a heavy reliance, also, on the older heads in the side, Dayne Zorko, Dayne Beams, the now-departed Tom Rockliff, Stefan Martin and Daniel Rich filling five of the top six spots in the best and fairest.

The cavalry is coming fast, though, with Eric Hipwood a huge forward prospect, Harris Andrews already a leader, and Witherden, McCluggage and Cox clearly long-term prospects.

There’s been plenty of mis-steps for Brisbane since the glory days of 2001-04, but this time around, the foundations look pretty solid. Which means the Lions should realistically expect to at least improve that bottom line win-loss ratio a bit more in 2018.

THE PREDICTION
15th. The Lions took some important strides in the back half of 2017. Don’t be too surprised if that improvement translates into quite a few more wins this season.

THE LADDER SO FAR (click on team to read)
15. BRISBANE
16. CARLTON
17. FREMANTLE
18. GOLD COAST
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Re: 2018 AFL Ladder predictions

Postby Booney » Tue Mar 06, 2018 8:48 am

NORTH MELBOURNE
2017 record: 6 wins, 16 losses (15th)
List age ranking (oldest to youngest): 16th
List experience ranking (most to fewest games): 18th
Footyology draw ranking (easiest to hardest): 1st

THE INS
Alex Morgan (Essendon), Luke Davies-Uniacke (Dandenong Stingrays), Will Walker (Sandringham Dragons), Kyron Hayden (Subiaco), Tristan Xerri (Western Jets), Billy Hartung (Hawthorn), Tom Murphy (Dandenong Stingrays), Gordon Narrier (Perth), Tom Jeffries (Werribee)

THE OUTS
Sam Gibson (Adelaide), Aaron Mullett (delisted/Carlton), Lachie Hansen (delisted), Will Fordham (delisted), Matthew Taylor (delisted), Corey Wagner (delisted), Lindsay Thomas (delisted/Port Adelaide), Andrew Swallow (retired)

THE BEST 22
B: Sam Wright, Scott Thompson, Jamie Macmillan
HB: Marley Williams, Robbie Tarrant, Luke McDonald
C: Nathan Hrovat, Shaun Higgins, Billy Hartung
HF: Kayne Turner, Jarrad Waite, Taylor Garner
F: Mason Wood, Ben Brown, Jy Simpkin
Foll: Todd Goldstein, Jack Ziebell, Ben Cunnington
Inter: Trent Dumont, Shaun Atley, Luke Davies-Uniacke, Ryan Clarke
Emerg: Ben Jacobs, Majak Daw, Paul Ahern

THE PROGNOSIS
No club in the AFL has changed its list profile as dramatically as has North Melbourne over the last two years.

At the end of 2016 season, the Kangaroos had the second-oldest and most experienced collection of players in the competition. Entering 2018, they’ll have the third-youngest and least experienced group.

Much of that change was achieved in one fell swoop via the winding up of Brent Harvey, Drew Petrie, Nick Dal Santo, Michael Firrito and departure out of Daniel Wells. But there’s more experience headed out the door this past off-season in Andrew Swallow, Lindsay Thomas, Lachie Hansen and Sam Gibson.

The result is North goes into the new season with only 10 players who have played more than 100 games and nearly 30 who are yet to play even 40. Does that make it the “lock” for a bottom two spot largely predicted? I’m not so convinced.

Sure, a large amount of inexperienced youngsters are going to need to click. But the signs shown by a large number of them in their tastes of AFL football last season were encouraging. And perhaps the Roos aren’t quite as far off the pace as many believe.

Whilst North went into its final game last year in contention for a wooden spoon, the considerable asterisk next to its name was that it had lost no fewer than five games by a total of just 14 points. That’s effectively three goals from an 11-win season.

The other big plus is their scoring potency. North finished a six-win season nonetheless having scored more points than any team bar Melbourne of those which finished outside the eight. Throw Jarrad Waite and Mason Wood into the mix for more than the 10 games each played last year (and yes, that’s a big if given their records) and there’s the potential for plenty more points yet.

It’s the midfield which has required the most attention, the accusations of a one-paced, plodding midfield probably fair enough, and to that end, Billy Hartung can make a bigger difference than a considerable army of sceptics believe.

So can a finally-recovered Paul Ahern and a draft pick in Luke Davies-Uniacke likely to play at senior level all season. Not to mention a proven quality ruckman in Todd Goldstein back in the right frame of mind. Ditto Ben Jacobs in a defensive midfield role, though his return to his full powers might require patience.

Even Jy Simpkin, as impressive as his work as a small forward has been, has the potential to make a difference with the odd rotation through the centre square.

The defence itself isn’t bad, though a lot depends on keys Robbie Tarrant and Scott Thompson staying fit, and the attempt at recasting Majak Daw as a key defender could prove a critical roll of the dice.

And talent-wise, the likes of Taylor Garner, Trent Dumont, Kayne Turner, Ryan Clarke have already shown a bit. Just a couple of that group going up another cog and the continued emergence of one or more of Ed Vickers-Willis, Sam Durdin, Daniel Neilson and Declan Mountford, among others, and the Roos’ list health, and perhaps results too, could surprise a few.

THE PREDICTION
14th. Footyology thinks the wholesale predictions of doom and gloom for the Roos are a little overblown. They have the potential to pinch more wins than many think.

THE LADDER SO FAR (click on team to read)
14. NORTH MELBOURNE
15. BRISBANE
16. CARLTON
17. FREMANTLE
18. GOLD COAST
PAFC. Forever.

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Re: 2018 AFL Ladder predictions

Postby Booney » Tue Mar 06, 2018 8:49 am

WEST COAST
2017 record: 13 wins, 11 losses (6th)
List age ranking (oldest to youngest): 10th
List experience ranking (most to fewest games): 8th
Footyology draw ranking (easiest to hardest): 18th

THE INS
Brendon Ah Chee (Port Adelaide), Jarrod Brander (Bendigo Pioneers), Oscar Allen (West Perth), Liam Ryan (Subiaco), Brayden Ainsworth (Subiaco), Jack Petruccelle (Northern Knights), Hamish Brayshaw (Sandringham Dragons), Ryan Burrows (South Fremantle), Tony Olango (NT Thunder), Callan England (Claremont)

THE OUTS
Matt Priddis (retired), Sam Mitchell (retired), Sam Butler (retired), Drew Petrie (retired), Sharrod Wellingham (delisted), Josh Hill (delisted), Jonathan Giles (retired), Paddy Brophy (retired), Simon Tunbridge (delisted), Tom Gorter (delisted), Tom Lamb (delisted), Jordan Snadden (delisted)

THE BEST 22
B:Tom Barrass, Eric Mackenzie, Brad Sheppard
HB:Elliot Yeo, Jeremy McGovern, Shannon Hurn
C:Jack Redden, Andrew Gaff, Lewis Jetta
HF:Jamie Cripps, Jack Darling, Liam Ryan
F:Nathan Vardy, Josh Kennedy, Mark LeCras
Foll:Nic Naitanui, Luke Shuey, Dom Sheed
Inter: Liam Duggan, Mark Hutchings, Willie Rioli, Brendon Ah Chee
Emerg: Scott Lycett, Chris Masten, Will Schofield

THE PROGNOSIS
It goes without saying this year’s competition appears as tight as it’s ever been, a cluster of teams outside last year’s top eight banging on the door for entry. And when it comes to just who will make way for them, it’s West Coast which seems most in the pundits’ sights. And perhaps with good reason.

They might have made it to the second week of finals, but the Eagles in reality last year looked a shadow of the team which reached a grand final two seasons previously, despite the fact even now 15 players from that grand final line-up remain on the list.

And while individuals can’t on their own make or break a team’s fortunes, it’s the much-discussed Nic Naitanui who is as good an exception to the rule that exists in AFL football.

The super-athletic ruckman is more than just a talisman, his clearance ability is as big an influence as his tap work, he provides a strong forward presence, and his capacity to allow his teammates first use of the ball is also crucial to their capacity to set up their defence behind the ball.

It has been at best a measured comeback from a knee reconstruction, with West Coast already warning against too much expectation about what he can deliver in the short term when he finally does take the field again.

Funnily enough, the Naitanui dependence comes despite West Coast having no less than half-a-dozen player rated elite in their positions by Champion Data.

Significantly, three of those – Jeremy McGovern, Elliot Yeo and Shannon Hurn – are defenders, whose intercept abilities are fundamental to the Eagles’ modus operandi, but whose capacity to do so as effectively was compromised last year under more frequent assault.

It’s West Coast’s midfield which will look most different in 2018, and it needed to. Both Sam Mitchell and Matt Priddis are done, and that places even more responsibility now on Luke Shuey and Andrew Gaff, with the depth of support for them even more questionable.

In a big-picture sense, though, the big list turnover and departures specifically of Mitchell, Priddis, Drew Petrie, Josh Hill and Sharrod Wellingham has cost the Eagles a whopping 1411 AFL games’ experience. That is a void that won’t be easily filled.

There’s no leg-up with a favourable draw, either, Footyology rating the West Coast fixture the toughest in the AFL, and remembering, too, that as grand a new home as Optus Stadium will surely prove, it might for a while negate what has been a considerable home advantage over the years.

Given all those factors, and the stampede of would-be usurpers to the Eagles’ top eight spot, even holding ground in 2018 will be a victory of sorts, an improvement on last year something of a surprise.

THE PREDICTION
13th.A big turnover of experience and tough draw could make like very difficult for the Eagles in 2018. Everything would need to go right for a fourth finals appearance in a row.

THE LADDER SO FAR (click on team to read)
13. WEST COAST
14. NORTH MELBOURNE
15. BRISBANE
16. CARLTON
17. FREMANTLE
18. GOLD COAST
PAFC. Forever.

LOOK OUT, WE'RE COMING!
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Re: 2018 AFL Ladder predictions

Postby Corona Man » Tue Mar 06, 2018 12:25 pm

Thanks for the above Boon, good lunch time reading.
On Brisbane, I really think McCluggage will need to carry the midfield.
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Re: 2018 AFL Ladder predictions

Postby Brodlach » Tue Mar 06, 2018 12:28 pm

Corona Man wrote:Thanks for the above Boon, good lunch time reading.
On Brisbane, I really think McCluggage will need to carry the midfield.

:shock: Dayne Beams and Dayne Zorko say hello



Edit I think I missed a stupid play on words
July 11th 2012....
Brodlach wrote:Rory Laird might end up the best IMO, he is an absolute jet. He has been in great form at the Bloods
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Re: 2018 AFL Ladder predictions

Postby Corona Man » Tue Mar 06, 2018 12:29 pm

Brodlach wrote:
Corona Man wrote:Thanks for the above Boon, good lunch time reading.
On Brisbane, I really think McCluggage will need to carry the midfield.

:shock: Dayne Beams and Dayne Zorko say hello

Sorry, it was a poor pun!
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Re: 2018 AFL Ladder predictions

Postby Brodlach » Tue Mar 06, 2018 12:29 pm

Haha just edited my post
Last edited by Brodlach on Tue Mar 06, 2018 12:29 pm, edited 1 time in total.
July 11th 2012....
Brodlach wrote:Rory Laird might end up the best IMO, he is an absolute jet. He has been in great form at the Bloods
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Re: 2018 AFL Ladder predictions

Postby Corona Man » Tue Mar 06, 2018 12:29 pm

Brodlach wrote:
Corona Man wrote:Thanks for the above Boon, good lunch time reading.
On Brisbane, I really think McCluggage will need to carry the midfield.

:shock: Dayne Beams and Dayne Zorko say hello



Edit I think I missed a stupid play on words

Yes, yes you did.
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