Crows/Pies Total Score bet

[Dutchy]

Alright Ive worked through some stats to come up with this bet I love -

Collingwood head to AAMI this Saturday night to play the Crows, now when looking at the stats this all points to a low scoring defensive slug fest. The league average for scoring is 90 ppg with Collingwood averaging 87ppg and the Crows 78ppg, so to start with both teams are under the average for offensive scoring, HOWEVER having a look at the teams they have both played this year and all 10 of them are above them for scoring this season which means they have not really come across a real defensive styled team yet...until they clash this week. Looking at scoring shots and the league average is 25pg with the Crows average 22 and Collingwood 26.

Looking at the Crows past 4 games they have conceded 72, 63, 44, 58 points averaging at 59 ppg so you could easily predict Collingwood will struggle to kick more than 10 goals, lets say they do and general feeling is Crows may win this one by under 20 points that gives a possible scoreline of -

Crows 80
Collingwood 60

TOTAL Points scored 140

I alos like the fact that COllingwood have had 10 days to prepare for this one and will be really focusing on their defensive game plan when you listen to Matlhouse last night -

COLLINGWOOD coach Mick Malthouse believes his side has the discipline to go the distance in another arm wrestle against Adelaide at AAMI Stadium on Saturday night. Expecting another close tussle with the Crows, Malthouse is confident his players are versatile enough to lock horns with Adelaide, whose game revolves around tight defence and patient build-ups towards goal.The Crows have conceded 100 points or more in a game just six times in Neil Craig's 63 games in charge, and in the past three matches have kept their opponents to a combined 20 goals.
Collingwood and Adelaide each scored seven goals in their last clash - the Crows won by four points in round 18 last year - but the Magpies are relishing another chance at a close, low-scoring scrap.Five of the past 10 games between the two sides have been decided by a goal or less.
"I love playing those games," Malthouse said.
"(It is) fantastic if you kick a lot of goals, but the reality is, I think, the best contests are the close contests that are hard fought for every goal.
Malthouse said the Magpies had "always risen" to the challenge of adapting their game style to match opponents, even when they had lost.

So the bet is -

Total score <150 10 Units @ $3-00 to return 30 Units
and a couple of savers -
Total Score 151 - 160 3 Units @ $5.50 to return 16.5 Units
Total Score 161 - 170 2.5 Units @ $6.25 to return 15.6 Units

So total spend 15.5 Units...obviously hoping that the score remains under 150 however with the savers above the bet will not lose unless they score over 170 which IMO is very very unlikely..

be interested in any of your thoughts? this is going to be my major bet this weekend.. (already is sorry Im on!)...only bookie offering this market that I can see is TAB Sportsbet

[mighty_tiger_79]

did you see the herald sun the other day, they were talking about how in todays modern game the scoring is a lot less then it was in the past. the average total per game for this season i think is just under 180.

the adel v coll will be a low scoring game and i think the pies can win

[scoob]

Great work dutchy... completely agree with everything you have said!
Given Rocca is Collingwoods main tall target in the forward line - rutton will shut him down and that leaves didak and co to kick a big score which I cant see happening, also if this wet windy weather hangs around until sat night your bets will be a winner... great work... as a great man once said....ALL ABOARD...

[bayman]

shooosh dutch, i thought we were keeping this to ourselves first

[Dutchy]

shooosh dutch, i thought we were keeping this to ourselves first

I like to share the wealth Bayman!!!...prices havent changed so ample opportunity to get on...they will also have a $1.85 line on Total Match Points sometime tomorrow and based ont hese prices I would expect it to be around 165.5 points...think i might hook into that also

[Dutchy]

14.5 Units won!!!!!...thast my biggest AFL win for 12 months....and Id given up at 3/4 time...needed them to score under 22 points in last 1/4...they score 21!!!!









hope some out there cashed also...

[another grub]

money for jam....great spot up again dutchy....... YOUR DA MAN!!!!!!!

[Wedgie]

Well done Dutchy!!

Not on winning money but on putting up the funniest smiley Ive ever seen, classic!

[another grub]

He is an astute man wedgie....