Netball - Round 14 Previews and value.

[Plunge Penguin]

After a break for the Test series against New Zealand, the competition resumes again. Down to three realistic chances for the flag: Sydney, Melbourne Phoenix and Adelaide. Queensland may sneak a finals spot, but not good enough to win it. Sydney STILL $1.55 for flag, which I'm more than happy to risk; the Phoenix at $2.50 looks very, very good value at this point. Adelaide at $8.50 worth a little too - they are starting to get there, but will need a spurt on. Be mindful of the Melb Kestrels though - very, very dangerous smokies.

QUEENSLAND FIREBIRDS v SYDNEY SWIFTS

One of those matches where I can smell an upset in the air. Sydney had a few in the Tests, and Queensland have been solid at home this year. Will need to play a little above themselves, but that should allow for a flat Sydney. Would expect $1.20 for Sydney, Queensland $4.00; value at head to head and points if so.

TIP: QUEENSLAND 2-4

ADELAIDE THUNDERBIRDS V PERTH ORIOLES

Perth have been fairly brave this year, but running into a desperate T-Birds at home would be one of their worst nightmares. They will open with spirit, but Adelaide should have far, far too much in hand at this stage of the season. Unitab may not offer head to head, but would expect points of 20.5 here

TIP: ADELAIDE 21-23

AIS DARTERS v HUNTER JAEGERS

Neither side can make the finals, so pride only on the line in this one. The Darters have had their moments this year also, and this one could be closer than expected. The CBT's hottest team should have enough in hand here, though. Expecting Hunter $1.35, AIS $2.95.

TIP: HUNTER 7-9

MELBOURNE KESTRELS v QUEENSLAND FIREBIRDS

Two teams fighting out for higher honours in what looms as a classic encounter on Sunday night. Both play an attacking, attractive style of netball that lends itself to a high scoring game (Unitab offer total goals options: if they offer more than 106.5, well worth a look). The backup from a tough Sydney game for Queensland, however, leans toward the Kestrels. Expecting Melb $1.40, Queensland $2.75

TIP: MELBOURNE 11-13

MELBOURNE PHOENIX V ADELAIDE THUNDERBIRDS

Another classic to round out a great round of CBT Netball. This could almost be a grand final preview, if the TBirds can start to really get their smooth style of play going. It will be tough for the VonBertouch sisters, backing up from the Test series, but as a plus, Natalie Medhurst will be quietly primed after the lack of court time there. If she can hit more than 35, the TBirds may just have enough in hand. Will take the Phoenix at home though. Expecting Melb $1.70, Adelaide $2.00

TIP: MELB 1-3

[Plunge Penguin]

Odds are out and not too far from the predictions, so let's find some value:


SYD $1.25, QLD $3.60. Points in 8.5, total game score of +/- 103.5 goals:

This is not far off the mark, and have taken QLD at both straight out and points in for this one. Sydney look a little flat still to me.

ADEL $1.01, PERTH $13.00, points in 18.5, game score of +/- 108.5 goals

Surprised they are fielding head to head on this one firstly. The points in looks a gift on Adelaide though - I had this a bit longer. Expecting a high scoring game too.

HUNTER $1.48, AIS $2.50, points in 4.5, game score of +/- 99.5 points

Getting a little better on Hunter than I expected, and both head to head and points in represent good value to me. While it won't be a shootout, would think it would go over 99.5 points too.

Summary:

HUNTER INTO QLD: $5.32 PER $1 Unit invested

Hunter -4.5/Adelaide -18.5/QLD + 8.5 = $6.33 per $1 unit.

TOTAL GAME SCORE: Hunter and AIS +99.5/Perth and Adelaide +108.5/Syd and QLD +103.5 at $6.33 per $1 unit.

There is value to be found in this round, lads (and ladies): Hunter at $1.48 is a near bet of the week, but gee, QLD is very appealing at home at $3.60 too.

Best of luck!

[Dutchy]

great work PP, Ive followed you on the three games at the line and all in a multi....look forward to making my first profits on netball!!!

Is there a website that provides live scores?

[Plunge Penguin]

Well...got 2 from 3 in head to head, but points options out...Adelaide were pushed hard at home, Sydney won in a canter against Queensland (oops!!!), but Hunter did the right thing, both head to head and at the points.

Dutchy - hope you didn't do too much on it

Will be backing up this week, though, so stay tuned for more winners (hopefully!!)

BTW - yes, there is a website for it. I can't remember it off the top of my head, but "Commonwealth Bank Trophy" in search should do it.