Horse Racing Tips & Discussion

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Re: Horse Racing Tips & Discussion

Postby Spargo » Tue Mar 13, 2018 2:57 pm

OnSong wrote:
Spargo wrote:
OnSong wrote:
LPH wrote:Its offical... I know ZERO about the Horses!!! :(

If Dee rode it like Walker rode Fanatic, who knows. Why he chose to go out the front baffled me.

The first thing I thought. Surely they weren’t the tactics?

Racing.com posted losing jockey thoughts and he really didn't have much to say other than the horse wanted to go.

What a cop out. He had it stuck out on a limb 3-4 wide for the first 1000m and made no attempt to slot it in & settle it in running.
If I was an owner I’d have rung his neck.
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Re: Horse Racing Tips & Discussion

Postby LPH » Wed Mar 14, 2018 9:05 pm

I was stunned he went forward, I was convinced he'd take a sit. Perhaps the stable told him to be the 'rabbit', so their own horse would get the pace on up front. Ben Hayes' interview after the race suggests that they had some sort of 'plan' for the winner. Oh well, cost me some cash :(
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Re: Horse Racing Tips & Discussion

Postby LPH » Fri Mar 16, 2018 7:08 pm

Preview Posted 7:00pm Friday 16/03/2018

Saturday 17/03/2018
The less said about last week, the better, I think! Had a ‘dog’ of a day on the Punt, with only Merchant Navy giving me a collect – the $2.60 Best Tote was very nice, but still didn’t help overall. Now be honest, did anyone back the winner of the Australian Cup? Anyway, to this week.
Not a lot on offer this week, really. Disappointing Blamey Field of 5 in Melbourne on Saturday, so looking to Sydney predominantly this week.

That said; ‘Friday Night Lights’ – R7 Mooney Valley – The Alistair Clarke Stakes
Clearly the Top weight is the ‘class’ in the Race & is a deserved favourite, but 5/4 on? Leave me out. I’ve looked at this race all week & I keep coming back to one that’s untried here at ‘The Valley’. I’m willing to concede that the ‘Top 3’ should have it between them (No. 1, 2, 3) but I’m after Value, as always.

Levendi ran a shocker in the Guineas, so I think he’s a risk @ the $7. Cliff’s Edge is the rightful fav but $1.75 is way too short for me, even with the Powered Odds of $1.90, so of the 3, Astoria is probably the best bet. That said, I’m backing Belfast (No. 6), which ran behind Astoria (2nd) in the Autumn Classic over 1800m. He’s a ‘run on’ type horse & might be able to make use of the ‘camber’. Happy to take him 1 x 4 Units, think he’ll run well.

Backing: Belfast 1 x 4 Units (DOC 8) )
Pick 4: 1, 2, 6 / 1, 2, 6, 8 / Field / Field (4%)

Sydney R7 – The Coolmore Classic

This is a tough race to ‘weigh up’ – many chances IMHO & it wouldn’t surprise to see a very well-priced winner. I have been watching the fluctuations all week with interest & Egg Tart has shortened significantly in the market from $8.50 to $5.50. That’s significant & the amount of support needs to be respected. I had her rated a $6 chance in the race anyway, so ENHANCED $7 is a fair WIN Bet IMHO. Bring Me Roses is another that has shortened significantly in the Market from $21 to $12. As a 3 yr Old Filly, is she up to these more ‘seasoned Mares’? I am sceptical. Oregon’s Day is another that has shortened (actually halved in price from $26 to $13) she’s an interesting runner. I think she’s being set for the ATC Oaks, or even the Schwepps Oaks here in Adelaide, she prepared to ‘watch’ her. If the track is SOFT or HEAVY, I give Prompt Response a huge ‘show’ of winning, but I’ve checked the forecast & it looks pretty clear. I am also VERY WARY of the Kiwi Mare Francaletta (No 14). She’s going to get a good run from the Gate & I think is over the Odds on her last run 3rd. Can entertain a PLACE Bet on her as she’ll be upfront for a long way in this race.
I think Gates will play a part in the final ‘wash-up’ of the race.

I have settled on last year’s Runner Up, Silent Sedition. She’ll get a much ‘kinder’ run this year from Gate 7 & her run last start at Caulfield in the Mannerism was good. She drops 1.5 kgs on that run & Williams sticks. The ENHANCED $10 with Ladbrokes is fine & the $3 Place on UBET was too nice not to accept. Backing her 2 x 5 Units with a 3 Unit PLACE Bet on the Kiwi Mare.

Backing: Silent Sedition 2 x 5 Units & a ‘saver’ on Francaletta 3 Units PLACE.
Box Trifecta: 1, 2, 7, 13, 14, 18 (25%)

Sydney R4 – The Pago Pago

Written By is ‘all the rage’ here – rightly so, being the Blue Diamond winner.
That said, he’s running this way of going for the 1st time.
He’s the one to beat, no doubt, & with the ‘Money Back’ option, I can fully understand someone betting on him to win the race – just not me!
Reasoning: Traditionally, the Blue Diamond winner struggles to back up in Sydney & win the Golden Slipper. That winner generally comes from the Sydney 2 yr Olds.

For this reason, I’m looking through this field to see a potential ‘Slipper Horse’. When doing so, we need to assess the Sydney Trainers 1st IMHO – the top one’s. I include Cummings in this list, not because I think he’s a ‘top’ trainer, but because he works for Godolphin. Add to him Snowden, Waller & Hawkes (Waterhouse doesn’t have a runner in this race). I do like Perry but don’t consider his runner up to these.
I’m looking for something to BEAT the favourite & WIN the race.
That runner for me is Spin (No5). I’m prepared to risk 6 Units the WIN on him, thinking he’ll run a PLACE & I’ll get my money back - $6 Powered on Sportsbet. I’m also going to have a small wager on Waller’s runner Zousain, on breeding, 1 x 3 Units.

Backing: Spin 6 Units Win, Zousain 1 x 3 Units.
Exacta: 5 / 1, 9 (500%)
Trifecta: 1, 5 / 1, 5 / Field (100%)

Melbourne – Flemington R7

I’ve chosen this race as the only race @ Headquarters I want to bet on. The Blamey only has 5 runners, so for me, I can’t bet on that race. This race looks an interesting one, with a good mix of experienced ‘2nd tier’ Gallopers involved.

I like Sovereign Nation as a horse & he is worth serious thought in this race, as is the Stablemate – Seaburge. The Hayes Stable is having an amazing run at the moment & who is to say that won’t continue? I’ve settled on one here that I really want to see over the entire Autumn & into the Winter. I’ve got a feeling we will see this one in Sydney throughout The Championships if he runs well here & I’m willing to gamble on him, that he will – No 7 Mask of Time. He’s a French Galloper that has had his only Australian Start running 4th in the Toorak Handicap in Mid-October last year.

He’s a ‘go back & run on’ type horse, & as such, I think Flemington’s straight will suit him down to the ground! Don’t worry that he’s 1st Up, he’s been placed 3 of 4 (the other 4th in previous start), 1st Up. He just might be in for a big Autumn & the $16 ENHANCED is very nice, as is the $3.80 the PLACE. Backing him 8)

Backing: Mask of Time 1 x 4 Units.
Box Trifecta: 1, 2, 3, 4, 7, 12 (25%)

OK, there you have it Lads.
God, I hope this week is a better one than last, otherwise I might need to give the game away!
Happy Punting! :lol:
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Re: Horse Racing Tips & Discussion

Postby gadj1976 » Sat Mar 17, 2018 7:59 am

I'm following you LPH.
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Re: Horse Racing Tips & Discussion

Postby JK » Sat Mar 17, 2018 8:03 am

Coolmore looks a tough race, one outsider I read a decent sprinkle for was Aide Memoire - $41 available a coupla days ago, now into $21
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Re: Horse Racing Tips & Discussion

Postby Spargo » Mon Mar 19, 2018 8:19 am

We’ve all been there before - and I went there again on Saturday...
Gold Coast quaddie, outlayed $48 for 33%
1st leg gets up at $31 (I’m a big Matt McGillivray fan)
2nd leg salutes at $10
3rd leg wins at $31 (McGillivray again)
I’ve got 4 runners in the last leg, 1,5,8,9
Approx dividends were $104k with the 1,8 & 9 - $47k with the 5
I risked the favourite that Lloyd’s on (he’d already ridden a treble).
Yep, up gets the fave with of course the 8 & 9 filling the places
Quaddie paid $75k - I have nothing left to throw up.
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Re: Horse Racing Tips & Discussion

Postby Spargo » Mon Mar 19, 2018 8:31 am

Booney wrote:
mighty_tiger_79 wrote:Chautauqua

Barrier trial this morning


Stayed in the gates

Barred from racing


Third time he's stood when the gates have opened up this prep.

Classic example of what people say to the animal rights activists, if they don't want to do it they won't!

Stood in the gates again this morning.
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Re: Horse Racing Tips & Discussion

Postby mighty_tiger_79 » Mon Mar 19, 2018 8:33 am

Spargo wrote:
Booney wrote:
mighty_tiger_79 wrote:Chautauqua

Barrier trial this morning


Stayed in the gates

Barred from racing


Third time he's stood when the gates have opened up this prep.

Classic example of what people say to the animal rights activists, if they don't want to do it they won't!

Stood in the gates again this morning.
Thats it then. Retirement i guess

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Re: Horse Racing Tips & Discussion

Postby JK » Mon Mar 19, 2018 9:12 am

Spargo wrote:We’ve all been there before - and I went there again on Saturday...
Gold Coast quaddie, outlayed $48 for 33%
1st leg gets up at $31 (I’m a big Matt McGillivray fan)
2nd leg salutes at $10
3rd leg wins at $31 (McGillivray again)
I’ve got 4 runners in the last leg, 1,5,8,9
Approx dividends were $104k with the 1,8 & 9 - $47k with the 5
I risked the favourite that Lloyd’s on (he’d already ridden a treble).
Yep, up gets the fave with of course the 8 & 9 filling the places
Quaddie paid $75k - I have nothing left to throw up.


Feel your pain mate, been through that too many times ... Managed a nice collect on Boomsara, albeit I got well below best tote value
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Re: Horse Racing Tips & Discussion

Postby Booney » Mon Mar 19, 2018 9:22 am

Spargo wrote:We’ve all been there before - and I went there again on Saturday...
Gold Coast quaddie, outlayed $48 for 33%
1st leg gets up at $31 (I’m a big Matt McGillivray fan)
2nd leg salutes at $10
3rd leg wins at $31 (McGillivray again)
I’ve got 4 runners in the last leg, 1,5,8,9
Approx dividends were $104k with the 1,8 & 9 - $47k with the 5
I risked the favourite that Lloyd’s on (he’d already ridden a treble).
Yep, up gets the fave with of course the 8 & 9 filling the places
Quaddie paid $75k - I have nothing left to throw up.


That smells.
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Re: Horse Racing Tips & Discussion

Postby mighty_tiger_79 » Mon Mar 19, 2018 11:00 am

:( ouch
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Re: Horse Racing Tips & Discussion

Postby Jimmy_041 » Mon Mar 19, 2018 1:49 pm

I had 4 different multis riding on a place for Showcase at Ascot R7 on Saturday. It came 5th :(
Talk about chocolates to boiled lollies..........
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Re: Horse Racing Tips & Discussion

Postby LPH » Mon Mar 19, 2018 8:51 pm

Spargo wrote:We’ve all been there before - and I went there again on Saturday...
Gold Coast quaddie, outlayed $48 for 33%
1st leg gets up at $31 (I’m a big Matt McGillivray fan)
2nd leg salutes at $10
3rd leg wins at $31 (McGillivray again)
I’ve got 4 runners in the last leg, 1,5,8,9
Approx dividends were $104k with the 1,8 & 9 - $47k with the 5
I risked the favourite that Lloyd’s on (he’d already ridden a treble).
Yep, up gets the fave with of course the 8 & 9 filling the places
Quaddie paid $75k - I have nothing left to throw up.


Unlucky my friend, very unlucky :(
Keep trying 8)
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Re: Horse Racing Tips & Discussion

Postby JK » Tue Mar 20, 2018 1:12 pm

Who we all like for the Slipper lads?
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Re: Horse Racing Tips & Discussion

Postby Brodlach » Tue Mar 20, 2018 1:41 pm

Seabrook for me, got some nice odds before the last win
July 11th 2012....
Brodlach wrote:Rory Laird might end up the best IMO, he is an absolute jet. He has been in great form at the Bloods
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Re: Horse Racing Tips & Discussion

Postby LPH » Thu Mar 22, 2018 10:06 pm

Preview Posted 10:00pm Thursday 22/03/2018

Saturday 24/03/2018

A better result last week – no winners but a few well-placed Place Bets help the ‘Bank’ look a bit healthier.
The RAIN appears to have come in Sydney & looks to be continuing until Saturday. This will undoubtedly impact any outlays One might take this week. It would be prudent to wait until the Day to make any investments. But that is not what I am here for, is it?
So, let’s have a ‘Captain’ at this week’s Fields… 8)

Sydney R7 – The Golden Slipper

As always, this is a very difficult race. Any 2 yr old race is difficult to assess. Personally, I don’t believe a 2 yr old race should carry such a big ‘purse’ – but it does.

I have followed ‘Practical Punting’ for many years & I have been a ‘disciple’ of The Optimist during this time – particularly in Sydney Racing. He was/is a firm believer that at Rosehill over 1200m, Horses rarely win from outside Gate 10. This is true for a Dry Track, but I am not so sure in Wet Ground, but I will ‘run with it’. Remembering that 2 of the Emergencies are drawn between 1 & 10, that brings No 12 Oohood & No 15 Seabrook into the ‘mix’. That leaves: 1, 2, 3, 6, 7, 8, 10, 12, 14, 15

Written By is the clear favourite, despite being on ‘the wrong leg’ last week in his narrow victory. Having watched the 2 x Races together (TAB had them split screened) from last week, the Colts were quicker. That said, only 3 horses in history have won the Pago Pago/Golden Slipper Double – the last being a ‘Mud Runner’ Phelan Ready (2009) & before him Stratum (2005). Interestingly, Written By is the ONLY runner to have run on a Heavy & he won that. Definitely a PLACE Bet @ the $2 on Thursday.

A wise man once told me, many years ago, “A good Colt will beat a good Filly, every time.” He did so in 1991 when Tierce won the race. I applied this strategy the following year & Burst (a filly) won the race!
So much for that strategy.

I don’t really like the race this year, I think it’s really hard. I was a fan of Spin, having backed it last week – don’t think he’ll get a run & his Gate is bad anyway. If I am prepared to back him, then I must be prepared to take the Skyline winner No 2 Santos, having beaten Spin, 2 weeks ago. Ticks the Jockey, Trainer & Gate ‘boxes’. He also has won a TRAIL on Heavy Ground, at the $12 Powered & $3.30 Place, happy to ‘have a play’ 2 x 5 Units, with a saver on the fav.

Backing: Santos 2 x 5 Units, Written By 3 Units Place (@ Evens or Better)
Pick 4: 1, 2, 3 / 1, 2, 3 / Field / Field (2%)

Sydney R8 – The Galaxy

Really want to back a long shot & proven ‘Mud Lark’ here in No 1 Le Romain.
He’s placed 16 of 21 starts including 2-3-0 from 6 starts on the Heavy & 3 placings from 3 on the Soft.
He is 1st Up, but he’s placed 5 from 5 1st Up, with 2 x wins. He’ll do me – already got him $34 Enhanced on Ladbrokes & $5.50 Place on UBET. Happy to get all over him 1 x 5 Units & might even back up more on the Day.

Backing: Le Romain 1 x 5 Units

Sydney R4 – The Ranvet Stakes

I said 2 weeks ago that I though The Taj Mahal would be very competitive in this race & I still think that. Having said that I want to back 2 horses in the race, it & Ventura Storm.

Ventura Storm ran really well (better than expected IMHO) in the Australian Cup to be narrowly beaten into 3rd – he was the ‘run on’ horse in the race & he loves Soft Ground, having won 3 from 5. He’s good value @ $17 Enhanced & the $3.40 is acceptable the Place too. Backing him 1 x 5 Units. Sticking with Taj, but concede his form on Wet going is questionable & he is a risk.
Gallo Chop loves the wet but he’s under the Odds IMHO – never going to take Odds On with him. He’s an under-performer in a similar vain to Tom Melbourne IMHO, I can’t have him.

Backing: Ventura Storm 1 x 5 Units & The Taj Mahal 4 Win Units.
Trifecta: 2, 8 / 2, 8 / 1, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 9 (150%)

Sydney R6 – The Rosehill Guineas

WOW, what a race this is! It is so difficult to pick a winner, with many chances. That should be good for us, as the prices should be decent – it’s about $5 the Field on Thursday night, with only 4 runners under Double Figures! That bodes well for us.

Ace High ran a very good 4th in the Randwick Guineas last start & he looks on track for the ATC Derby.
I am prepared to risk him in this race because his Wet Track form is ordinary. I concede if the track rating improves on the day, then he can win, but as I write this, I can’t have him. There are a few Kiwi visitors in the race & they always seem to go well at this Carnival. The best of them looks to be No 2 Vin De Dance, having won their Derby over there, but $6? Not for me. The Kiwi runner ‘on the rise’ looks to be No 19 Mongolian Marshal, I could entertain a small wager on him for ‘entertainment value’.

Cliff’s Edge ran beautifully last Friday night, spanking his opposition. Can he back up? Time will tell, but again, in such an open race, he’s short enough @ 6/1. As always, Waller holds the key to a race like this, with so many runners: 6, 8 10, 11, 16.

The speed map suggests Cliff’s Edge leads, with Ace High pushing forward, with Vin De Dance & Mission Hill handy. If Cliff’s Edge gets a ‘soft’ lead in front, they might not be able to catch him in the straight. I’m thinking that perhaps the ‘run on’ horses might find it difficult to run down the leaders in the race, unless they go ‘crazy’ up front (doubtful). With this in mind, I don’t think Kaonic can win under these conditions.
I do think the Melbourne horse Villermont may well get the run of the race, just behind the speed. Blake Shin in the seat is a BIG Bonus for it, so at the Powered $17 & the $4 Place, I’ll take him 1 x 5 Units & I’ll back Cliff’s Edge, 4 Units Win, to hang on.

Backing: Cliff’s Edge Win 4 Units, Villermont 1 x 5 Units.
Box Trifecta: 1, 4, 8, 9, 13, 19 (35%)

Melbourne R7 – The Mornington Cup

The winner of this race gets Ballot Exemption into the Caulfield Cup, later in the year.
The Weir runner Kings will Dream is the ‘shorty’ here. With his 5 straight wins, including 4 this preparation, the short quote of 6/4 is unsurprising, but I can’t take him. The Top Weight ran in the Caulfield Cup last year, running 4th but carried only 50kgs, a massive 10 kgs less than in this race!

Another Weir runner Bondeiger, is certainly worth entertaining a Bet. He’s won his last 3 starts, including the Launceston Cup. He’s going to get a cosy run near the back of the field & you know he’ll run on. 7/1 is short enough, but if we could get $10, I’d back him E/Way. 8)

I’ve settled on the Lloyd Williams horse, No 12 Harrison.
He buys Overseas Horses specifically for the Cups. With the prize of an automatic entry into the Caulfield Cup, who is to doubt that this one can’t beat a pretty weak field here. I take a ‘lead’ from the scratching of stablemate Foundry & am prepared the back him 1 out @ the $17 & $4.60 on UBET.

Backing: Harrison 1 x 4 Units.

There we are Lads, another hopeful Assessment of the GG’s.
Enjoy what should be a fantastic Day’s Racing, despite the expected Wet Track.
Oakbank next week… :D
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Re: Horse Racing Tips & Discussion

Postby OnSong » Fri Mar 23, 2018 12:45 pm

I'm a big fan of Jungle Edge and Mick Bell in the Galaxy.

Loves the wet, underrated Queensland runner, hoping for a gun ride from Forrester.
Right in front of me. RIGHT IN FRONT OF ME!
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Re: Horse Racing Tips & Discussion

Postby mighty_tiger_79 » Sat Mar 24, 2018 2:38 pm

Winx.....does it again
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Re: Horse Racing Tips & Discussion

Postby Booney » Mon Mar 26, 2018 10:42 am

Bagged the Mornington Cup trifecta and felt robbed, thought it paid unders.
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Re: Horse Racing Tips & Discussion

Postby JK » Mon Mar 26, 2018 12:44 pm

Booney wrote:Bagged the Mornington Cup trifecta and felt robbed, thought it paid unders.


Short priced fave followed by 2nd or 3rd favourite suggests it was never going to pay much bud ... Would have guessed at say $60-$120
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