NAB Cup - winner

[Dutchy]

Alright here we go for footy, some teams just dont take this seriously so that leaves some opportunity for $ to be made and some value bets - heres my assessment of the cup winner -

I reckon you can scrub Brisbane, West Coast, Richmond, Carlton, Port, Melbourne & Sydney from winning the cup (based on coaches comments and previous years efforts in this comp).

I reckon the 1/4 finals will be -

Ess v Bulldogs
Hawks v Adel
Kangas v Geelong
Freo v Col or St Kilda

Therefore punts on Bulldogs (lucky enough to be in Darwin Tuesday night and attended their community camp function, Rocket indicated they will be going pretty hard in the pre-season) Adelaide and Freo are my tips for the winner - with a rough hope to Collingwood with a number of gun players back and fresh after hardly playing last year.

[Wedgie]

I reckon the Cats are a good thing for the nab, moreso than the real season as they'll be pumped up.
I'd want a lot better odds on them though.

Value looks to be Freo (as pointed out to me by Dogmatic), could easily get an all home run.


Current odds (have to be the first time ever the premier is the outsider surely?):

Western Bulldogs 7.00
Geelong 8.00
Kangaroos 9.00
Adelaide 9.00
West Coast 9.00
St Kilda 10.00
Fremantle 12.00
Richmond 14.00
Port Adelaide 16.00
Essendon 16.00
Brisbane 17.00
Melbourne 17.00
Hawthorn 17.00
Collingwood 21.00
Carlton 26.00
Sydney 34.00

[Dogmatic]

NAB R1 WBDS-MELB HH IncExT

No. Description Win
1016 WST BULLDG $1.33
1010 MELBOURNE $3.00

What have the Bullies done to be that short.
The Dees are very attractive at those odds.

[Dutchy]

Dogs will win - Melbourne trying different things and Daniher has said they arent focused as they have been in previous years...also Bulldogs have been in Darwin since Monday and trust me they are conditions you need a few days to get used too...

[Punk Rooster]

Western Bulldogs 7.00 Too short- my pick for the real deal
Geelong 8.00 No value here, bu I wouldn't be offering too much more than $8 about them
Kangaroos 9.00 Always in the hunt in the pre season stuff, respect.
Adelaide 9.00 I don't think the Crows are taking this stuff seriously, their eye is on the real one.
West Coast 9.00 Ridiculous- same preparation as Sydney, massive unders
St Kilda 10.00 Who knows with Grant Thomas coaching- just as likely to put all his eggs in one basket.
Fremantle 12.00 As above, less talented list.
Richmond 14.00 Quite possibly a reasonable bet at odds.
Port Adelaide 16.00 Have hit this pre-season running, have good form in this comp, well worth a go.
Essendon 16.00 No. No. No.
Brisbane 17.00 Aging list of pensioners. Should be eased thru this.
Melbourne 17.00 If they can get past the Bulldogs, a chance
Hawthorn 17.00 Likely to be knocked out in the first round.
Collingwood 21.00 As above.
Carlton 26.00 Did allright 2 years ago in this, wouldn't be a stupid bet at these odds.
Sydney 34.00 Fair enough- like WCE, limited preparation, Roos would be easing his players through this Mickey Mouse stuff

[Dogmatic]

Dogs will win - Melbourne trying different things and Daniher has said they arent focused as they have been in previous years...also Bulldogs have been in Darwin since Monday and trust me they are conditions you need a few days to get used too...

Didn't Melbourne have a training camp in Brisbane last week?

[spiderk]

Not sure about the assessment on Essendon, Punk Rooster. Sheedy is a wily fox, and suspect he will have his boys really primed for this one to make a point. Had a fiver on the Essendon/Freo GF quin at $48, which is under the odds, but still felt an ok run for the money.

Freo continue to shorten, in from the $15's I got to $12's now.

[Punk Rooster]

Not sure about the assessment on Essendon, Punk Rooster. Sheedy is a wily fox, and suspect he will have his boys really primed for this one to make a point. Had a fiver on the Essendon/Freo GF quin at $48, which is under the odds, but still felt an ok run for the money.

Freo continue to shorten, in from the $15's I got to $12's now.

Should Effendon win against the Bears, I think they'll struggle against the winner of Western Bulldogs/Melbourne.

[Dutchy]

Dogs will win - Melbourne trying different things and Daniher has said they arent focused as they have been in previous years...also Bulldogs have been in Darwin since Monday and trust me they are conditions you need a few days to get used too...

Didn't Melbourne have a training camp in Brisbane last week?

Brisbane is no comparison to Darwin, Darwin is a further 2000 k's north of Brisbane - I was there this week, its not easy walking down the road, stuff playing footy in it

[JK]

Freo continue to shorten, in from the $15's I got to $12's now.

Took Port at 26/1 now they're into 16's, agree with Punky's assessment on them too

[mighty_tiger_79]

apparently the cats are going pretty hard to win the NAB cup. happened to be at the cattery on monday and the boys were in doing a weights session and couldnt wait to get out there and make amends for last year.

Ablett Jnr in the best shape ever!!!!!!!!

[Dutchy]

alight odds are in for the head to heads - like Bulldogs/Essendon/Kangas/Hawks/Geelong all to win @ $8.80 then roll it all into the Crows on Sunday....easy

Add in Sa to win the ING and United to make the GF...what a weekend

[Dutchy]

Punting rule No 1104 - dont punt on pre season matches!!!!

[Wedgie]

Punting rule No 1104 - dont punt on pre season matches!!!!

Very smart rule that.

I've also found with early betting on the normal round its mainly best to stick to home teams, heaps of upsets.
That changes towards the end of the season when more favs come through.

[mighty_tiger_79]

geelong at $7 is a gift as they are desperately trying to win it. the bad odds about Geelong is in the real season where they will struggle even though they have a good draw for a change

[Wedgie]

geelong at $7 is a gift as they are desperately trying to win it. the bad odds about Geelong is in the real season where they will struggle even though they have a good draw for a change

Dunno, still about 12 of their top players out, far from a gift IMHO.
Agree about the real season as they're yet to prove they have a decent injury management policy down at sleepy hollow.
If they could manage their players like the Crows did last year, they'd be a cert.

[Dogmatic]

Dogs will win - Melbourne trying different things and Daniher has said they arent focused as they have been in previous years...also Bulldogs have been in Darwin since Monday and trust me they are conditions you need a few days to get used too...

Didn't Melbourne have a training camp in Brisbane last week?

Brisbane is no comparison to Darwin, Darwin is a further 2000 k's north of Brisbane - I was there this week, its not easy walking down the road, stuff playing footy in it

Bulldogs must have gone up to Darwin as a PR exercise because it didn't help them.

[Punk Rooster]

Bulldogs must have gone up to Darwin as a PR exercise because it didn't help them.

Nope, had nothing to do with me

[spiderk]

Doh!!! Did my first fiver on the Ess v Freo GF Quin (damn, you Andrew Lovett!!), but at least so far still live with Dockers (although still haven't played yet ). Took a Pick 6 for a fiver on this weeks games with Kang/Haw/Geel/Coll/Adel/Freo for the lazy 5 at $26...still going so far, but really, too early to lash out much on the pre-season comp. Keep my money in my pocket for Norwood to make the five -

[mighty_tiger_79]

i dont normally like betting on pre-season matches, but i did have a crack at Geelong Last night both for the win and over 15.5 points. the only reason why I had a decent bet on them is that i know that they are desperately trying to win this. I have no idea why though.

not too sure how they will go next week up at Cairns, but i dont think ill be investing on that match.