SANFL Round 1

[Punk Rooster]

Ok, I'm gonna have a crack at setting markets each week, & then betting on the overs/value. These prices are my opinions only, & I hope they offer an accurate guide- feel free to post your own thoughts. Obviously, not everyone has shown there hand in the trials, but I've not got much else to go off at this stage.

Norwood $1.50
Glenelg $2.40 (109%)

North $1.70
WWT $2.00 (109%)

West $2.00
Port $1.70 (109%)

Central $1.40
Sturt $2.50 (111%)

I found last year, that the percentages were generally between 106% & 112%.
In summary-
the Legs should be too good for a Bay outfit, which is young, inexperienced & not yet playing 4 quarters of footy- Norwood are probably a year ahead of them.
North should have a quality side on the park, despit the fact they don't have a "home ground advantage", should be able to account for an Eagles side, but it won't be easy- wouldn't be an upset if WWT won either.
West & Port could go either way- West are an unknown quantity, & have the potential to fight above their weight this year, but are up against a Magppies side full of quality recruits. Leaning to Port slightly.
Central should be a lot shorter, but it's a night game, & Sturt, whilst on a (I feel) downhill slide, maybe be fitter than the Dogs at this stage (due to them setting themselves for September).
Drawing a lot of bows here, but it's early days, & we can re-adjust our thinking as we go.

[Ecky]

My information is that the bookies odds will be something like:

Norwood 1.33
Glenelg 3.00

North 1.60
WWT 2.20

West 3.20
Port 1.30

Central 1.20
Sturt 4.00

[mighty_tiger_79]

glenelg are a touch of overs at $3.00

[mighty_tiger_79]

SANFL ROUND 1 Printer friendly version



1.50 NORWOOD 2.20 3.00 31/3/06 7.40 PM
2.50 GLENELG 2.80 7.00 COOPERS STADIUM

2.50 WEST ADELAIDE 2.80 7.00 1/4/06 2.20 PM
1.50 PORT MAGPIES 2.20 3.00 BROADSPECTRUM

1.65 NORTH ADELAIDE 2.20 3.30 1/4/06 2.20 PM
2.10 WOOD-TORRENS 2.50 5.00 PROSPECT OVAL

1.18 CENTRAL DISTRICT 2.10 1.70 1/4/06 2.20 PM
4.50 STURT 5.00 15.00 HAMRA HOMES

[bayman]

pr any hope you'll give me the 2/5 central ? i've noticed thornton has them 1.18 & i think thats overs they should be 1/10 in my humble opinion

[Punk Rooster]

Guys, I deleted the other thread (Thorntons Odds For Round 1), as I didn't want to have several threads on the one round of footy- each week, I'll put up "SANFL Round..." (& AFL, but sparately) and all odds & discussion can be contained, for much easier reading assessment.
Cheers,
PR

[Punk Rooster]

pr any hope you'll give me the 2/5 central ? i've noticed thornton has them 1.18 & i think thats overs they should be 1/10 in my humble opinion

Certainly not! (nothing wrong with asking though ) As I stated, Centrals should be a lot shorter, & in reality, they should win, but Sturt have a fairly decent night record. Also, the Dodgies might be setting themselves for later in the year, not earlier. Non-betting game for me.
I think the best bets look to be-
Norwood 1-39 $2.20
West 1-39 $2.80
North WIN $1.65
or all up $10

[Punk Rooster]

Ok, I'm going to have "bets" each week, they'll be posted here, & I'l keep a running tally for win/loss for the year
$10 on Norwood @ 1-39 ($22)
$10 on West @ 1-39 ($28)
$30 on North to Win ($49.50)
$10 all-up (approx $100)

[Coorong]

Good idea Punky, I will follow you through the season. You gonna do a similar for the AFL. Just for fun ofcourse

If you want a few of us to join in could be a bit of a debate coming into the final rounds as to who would theoreticaly win/lose the most.

Of course will will play with Glenelg money, you know (monopoly) cheap shot but couldnt help it!

Seriously though, maybe start a school for wanna be punters. Ypor running out of time though.

[Punk Rooster]

1.60 WEST COAST -13.5 2.40 4.00 30/3/06 7.15 PM
2.35 ST KILDA +7.5 2.90 8.00 SUBIACO OVAL

1.80 WEST.BULLDOGS -6.5 2.40 5.50 31/3/06 7.10 PM
2.00 RICHMOND ----- 2.50 6.00 TELSTRA DOME

1.50 GEELONG -18.5 2.30 3.40 1/4/06 1.40 PM
2.70 BRISBANE +12.5 3.20 9.00 SKILLED STADIUM

1.80 ESSENDON -6.5 2.40 5.50 1/4/06 6.40 PM
2.00 SYDNEY ----- 2.50 6.00 TELSTRA DOME

1.55 PORT ADELAIDE -14.5 2.30 4.00 1/4/06 7.10 PM
2.40 KANGAROOS +8.5 2.90 8.00 AAMI STADIUM

2.10 HAWTHORN +1.5 2.60 6.50 2/4/06 1.40 PM
1.77 FREMANTLE -7.5 2.40 5.50 AURORA STADIUM

1.32 MELBOURNE -26.5 2.30 2.80 2/4/06 6.40 PM
3.40 CARLTON +20.5 4.00 12.00 TELSTRA DOME

2.25 COLLINGWOOD +5.5 2.70 7.00 3/4/06 6.40 PM
1.65 ADELAIDE -11.5 2.30 4.80 TELSTRA DOME

[Punk Rooster]

$10 on Western Bulldogs to win ($18)
$30 on Geelong -18.5 pts ($60)
$20 on Sydney to win ($40)
$30 on Fremantle -7.5 pts ($60)
$10 on Collingwood 1-39 ($27)
$10 on all-up ($388)

$170 outlayed across SANFL/AFL this week

*Note, my ranking system is as follows...
$30 (or 3 x $10 units) = "certainty"
$20 = confident
$10 = worth having something on

[Punk Rooster]

I've backed-
Geelong WIN
Fremantle WIN
Melbourne WIN
North Adelaide WIN
@ $5.40

Norwood 1-39
Port 40+
North WIN
@12.60

Norwood 1-39
Port 40+
North WIN
Sturt 1-39
@ $63.50

I loaded up on the top bet, as while I was studying the footy form, I backed a winner at Quirindi, which paid $21.20

[Dutchy]

whod you go thru Punky? Seal or Thorton?

I went the Richmond/Bays double today @ $5.30 - how am i going!!!

[bayman]

glenelg line
port magpies line
central win
at $4.25 for $100

[Punk Rooster]

Dutchy- Thornton
Bayman- what was the line betting on Bays/Nwd? That bet'd be dead now?

All - as you'd notice,i'll edit the price list to highlight the winning ways out in green (that's the only editing that will take place)

[Dutchy]

Dutchy- Thornton
Bayman- what was the line betting on Bays/Nwd? That bet'd be dead now?

All - as you'd notice,i'll edit the price list to highlight the winning ways out in green (that's the only editing that will take place)

Clever - Line was +16.5 for the bays at Seal so bayman would be alive

Bayman - do you drive a white car with 4 glenelg stickers on the back?

[mighty_tiger_79]

you would like to think that the white car bayman drives is a really flash vehicle given all the money he makes punting?

[bayman]

bet was alive & now a collect so a good start to the year but i was soft i should've done central the line as well

yes thats my car & no its not 'flashy' but it gets me from a to b

[Punk Rooster]

bet was alive & now a collect so a good start to the year but i was soft i should've done central the line as well

yes thats my car & no its not 'flashy' but it gets me from a to b

I heard it was a Porsche?

[Dutchy]

When I saw a bloke in a Glenelg shirt walk out of the auditorium I thought it might have been you, by the way whats all the work they are doing in there? changing a few things? do they get reasonable numbers there on friday and sat nights?