SANFL Round 1

Best Bets? Talking Odds? This is the place.

SANFL Round 1

Postby Punk Rooster » Mon Mar 27, 2006 11:26 pm

Ok, I'm gonna have a crack at setting markets each week, & then betting on the overs/value. These prices are my opinions only, & I hope they offer an accurate guide- feel free to post your own thoughts. Obviously, not everyone has shown there hand in the trials, but I've not got much else to go off at this stage.

Norwood $1.50
Glenelg $2.40 (109%)

North $1.70
WWT $2.00 (109%)

West $2.00
Port $1.70 (109%)

Central $1.40
Sturt $2.50 (111%)

I found last year, that the percentages were generally between 106% & 112%.
In summary-
the Legs should be too good for a Bay outfit, which is young, inexperienced & not yet playing 4 quarters of footy- Norwood are probably a year ahead of them.
North should have a quality side on the park, despit the fact they don't have a "home ground advantage", should be able to account for an Eagles side, but it won't be easy- wouldn't be an upset if WWT won either.
West & Port could go either way- West are an unknown quantity, & have the potential to fight above their weight this year, but are up against a Magppies side full of quality recruits. Leaning to Port slightly.
Central should be a lot shorter, but it's a night game, & Sturt, whilst on a (I feel) downhill slide, maybe be fitter than the Dogs at this stage (due to them setting themselves for September).
Drawing a lot of bows here, but it's early days, & we can re-adjust our thinking as we go.
Ralph Wiggum wrote:That's where I saw the leprechaun. He told me to burn things

Ken Farmer>John Coleman

Hindmarsh Pest Control
User avatar
Punk Rooster
Coach
 
 
Posts: 11948
Joined: Thu Oct 27, 2005 9:30 am
Location: Paper Street Soap Company
Has liked: 16 times
Been liked: 16 times
Grassroots Team: Fitzroy

Postby Ecky » Tue Mar 28, 2006 1:07 pm

My information is that the bookies odds will be something like:

Norwood 1.33
Glenelg 3.00

North 1.60
WWT 2.20

West 3.20
Port 1.30

Central 1.20
Sturt 4.00
User avatar
Ecky
2022 SA Footy Punter of the Year
 
 
Posts: 2736
Joined: Thu Oct 27, 2005 10:26 am
Location: Wherever the stats are
Has liked: 12 times
Been liked: 78 times
Grassroots Team: Adelaide Lutheran

Postby mighty_tiger_79 » Tue Mar 28, 2006 4:17 pm

glenelg are a touch of overs at $3.00
User avatar
mighty_tiger_79
Coach
 
Posts: 60937
Joined: Tue Jan 03, 2006 7:29 pm
Location: at the TAB
Has liked: 13432 times
Been liked: 4642 times

hope that helps you

Postby mighty_tiger_79 » Tue Mar 28, 2006 5:17 pm

SANFL ROUND 1 Printer friendly version



1.50 NORWOOD 2.20 3.00 31/3/06 7.40 PM
2.50 GLENELG 2.80 7.00 COOPERS STADIUM

2.50 WEST ADELAIDE 2.80 7.00 1/4/06 2.20 PM
1.50 PORT MAGPIES 2.20 3.00 BROADSPECTRUM

1.65 NORTH ADELAIDE 2.20 3.30 1/4/06 2.20 PM
2.10 WOOD-TORRENS 2.50 5.00 PROSPECT OVAL

1.18 CENTRAL DISTRICT 2.10 1.70 1/4/06 2.20 PM
4.50 STURT 5.00 15.00 HAMRA HOMES
User avatar
mighty_tiger_79
Coach
 
Posts: 60937
Joined: Tue Jan 03, 2006 7:29 pm
Location: at the TAB
Has liked: 13432 times
Been liked: 4642 times

any hope

Postby bayman » Tue Mar 28, 2006 6:04 pm

pr any hope you'll give me the 2/5 central ? i've noticed thornton has them 1.18 & i think thats overs they should be 1/10 in my humble opinion
i thought secret groups were a thing of the past, well not on websites anyway
bayman
Coach
 
 
Posts: 13922
Joined: Sun Nov 06, 2005 9:12 pm
Location: home
Has liked: 0 time
Been liked: 0 time
Grassroots Team: Plympton

Postby Punk Rooster » Tue Mar 28, 2006 9:20 pm

Guys, I deleted the other thread (Thorntons Odds For Round 1), as I didn't want to have several threads on the one round of footy- each week, I'll put up "SANFL Round..." (& AFL, but sparately) and all odds & discussion can be contained, for much easier reading assessment.
Cheers,
PR
Ralph Wiggum wrote:That's where I saw the leprechaun. He told me to burn things

Ken Farmer>John Coleman

Hindmarsh Pest Control
User avatar
Punk Rooster
Coach
 
 
Posts: 11948
Joined: Thu Oct 27, 2005 9:30 am
Location: Paper Street Soap Company
Has liked: 16 times
Been liked: 16 times
Grassroots Team: Fitzroy

Re: any hope

Postby Punk Rooster » Tue Mar 28, 2006 9:28 pm

bayman wrote:pr any hope you'll give me the 2/5 central ? i've noticed thornton has them 1.18 & i think thats overs they should be 1/10 in my humble opinion
Certainly not! (nothing wrong with asking though :wink: ) As I stated, Centrals should be a lot shorter, & in reality, they should win, but Sturt have a fairly decent night record. Also, the Dodgies might be setting themselves for later in the year, not earlier. Non-betting game for me.
I think the best bets look to be-
Norwood 1-39 $2.20
West 1-39 $2.80
North WIN $1.65
or all up $10
Ralph Wiggum wrote:That's where I saw the leprechaun. He told me to burn things

Ken Farmer>John Coleman

Hindmarsh Pest Control
User avatar
Punk Rooster
Coach
 
 
Posts: 11948
Joined: Thu Oct 27, 2005 9:30 am
Location: Paper Street Soap Company
Has liked: 16 times
Been liked: 16 times
Grassroots Team: Fitzroy

Postby Punk Rooster » Thu Mar 30, 2006 6:36 pm

Ok, I'm going to have "bets" each week, they'll be posted here, & I'l keep a running tally for win/loss for the year
$10 on Norwood @ 1-39 ($22)
$10 on West @ 1-39 ($28)
$30 on North to Win ($49.50)
$10 all-up (approx $100)
Last edited by Punk Rooster on Sun Apr 02, 2006 9:21 pm, edited 1 time in total.
Ralph Wiggum wrote:That's where I saw the leprechaun. He told me to burn things

Ken Farmer>John Coleman

Hindmarsh Pest Control
User avatar
Punk Rooster
Coach
 
 
Posts: 11948
Joined: Thu Oct 27, 2005 9:30 am
Location: Paper Street Soap Company
Has liked: 16 times
Been liked: 16 times
Grassroots Team: Fitzroy

Postby Coorong » Thu Mar 30, 2006 8:08 pm

Good idea Punky, I will follow you through the season. You gonna do a similar for the AFL. Just for fun ofcourse

If you want a few of us to join in could be a bit of a debate coming into the final rounds as to who would theoreticaly win/lose the most.

Of course will will play with Glenelg money, you know (monopoly) cheap shot but couldnt help it!

Seriously though, maybe start a school for wanna be punters. Ypor running out of time though.
User avatar
Coorong
League - Best 21
 
 
Posts: 1524
Joined: Thu Oct 27, 2005 8:48 am
Location: In the Coaches Box
Has liked: 0 time
Been liked: 8 times

Postby Punk Rooster » Thu Mar 30, 2006 11:41 pm

1.60 WEST COAST -13.5 2.40 4.00 30/3/06 7.15 PM
2.35 ST KILDA +7.5 2.90 8.00 SUBIACO OVAL

1.80 WEST.BULLDOGS -6.5 2.40 5.50 31/3/06 7.10 PM
2.00 RICHMOND ----- 2.50 6.00 TELSTRA DOME

1.50 GEELONG -18.5 2.30 3.40 1/4/06 1.40 PM
2.70 BRISBANE +12.5 3.20 9.00 SKILLED STADIUM

1.80 ESSENDON -6.5 2.40 5.50 1/4/06 6.40 PM
2.00 SYDNEY ----- 2.50 6.00 TELSTRA DOME

1.55 PORT ADELAIDE -14.5 2.30 4.00 1/4/06 7.10 PM
2.40 KANGAROOS +8.5 2.90 8.00 AAMI STADIUM

2.10 HAWTHORN +1.5 2.60 6.50 2/4/06 1.40 PM
1.77 FREMANTLE -7.5 2.40 5.50 AURORA STADIUM

1.32 MELBOURNE -26.5 2.30 2.80 2/4/06 6.40 PM
3.40 CARLTON +20.5 4.00 12.00 TELSTRA DOME

2.25 COLLINGWOOD +5.5 2.70 7.00 3/4/06 6.40 PM
1.65 ADELAIDE -11.5 2.30 4.80 TELSTRA DOME
Last edited by Punk Rooster on Tue Apr 04, 2006 9:01 am, edited 5 times in total.
Ralph Wiggum wrote:That's where I saw the leprechaun. He told me to burn things

Ken Farmer>John Coleman

Hindmarsh Pest Control
User avatar
Punk Rooster
Coach
 
 
Posts: 11948
Joined: Thu Oct 27, 2005 9:30 am
Location: Paper Street Soap Company
Has liked: 16 times
Been liked: 16 times
Grassroots Team: Fitzroy

Postby Punk Rooster » Thu Mar 30, 2006 11:46 pm

$10 on Western Bulldogs to win ($18)
$30 on Geelong -18.5 pts ($60)

$20 on Sydney to win ($40)
$30 on Fremantle -7.5 pts ($60)

$10 on Collingwood 1-39 ($27)
$10 on all-up ($388)

$170 outlayed across SANFL/AFL this week

*Note, my ranking system is as follows...
$30 (or 3 x $10 units) = "certainty"
$20 = confident
$10 = worth having something on
Last edited by Punk Rooster on Tue Apr 04, 2006 9:01 am, edited 2 times in total.
Ralph Wiggum wrote:That's where I saw the leprechaun. He told me to burn things

Ken Farmer>John Coleman

Hindmarsh Pest Control
User avatar
Punk Rooster
Coach
 
 
Posts: 11948
Joined: Thu Oct 27, 2005 9:30 am
Location: Paper Street Soap Company
Has liked: 16 times
Been liked: 16 times
Grassroots Team: Fitzroy

Postby Punk Rooster » Fri Mar 31, 2006 7:01 pm

I've backed-
Geelong WIN
Fremantle WIN
Melbourne WIN
North Adelaide WIN
@ $5.40

Norwood 1-39
Port 40+
North WIN
@12.60

Norwood 1-39
Port 40+
North WIN
Sturt 1-39
@ $63.50

I loaded up on the top bet, as while I was studying the footy form, I backed a winner at Quirindi, which paid $21.20 :wink:
Ralph Wiggum wrote:That's where I saw the leprechaun. He told me to burn things

Ken Farmer>John Coleman

Hindmarsh Pest Control
User avatar
Punk Rooster
Coach
 
 
Posts: 11948
Joined: Thu Oct 27, 2005 9:30 am
Location: Paper Street Soap Company
Has liked: 16 times
Been liked: 16 times
Grassroots Team: Fitzroy

Postby Dutchy » Fri Mar 31, 2006 11:35 pm

whod you go thru Punky? Seal or Thorton?

I went the Richmond/Bays double today @ $5.30 - how am i going!!! :o
User avatar
Dutchy
Site Admin
 
 
Posts: 46221
Joined: Sat Nov 05, 2005 8:24 am
Location: Location, Location
Has liked: 2639 times
Been liked: 4303 times

i've done

Postby bayman » Sat Apr 01, 2006 12:58 am

glenelg line
port magpies line
central win
at $4.25 for $100
i thought secret groups were a thing of the past, well not on websites anyway
bayman
Coach
 
 
Posts: 13922
Joined: Sun Nov 06, 2005 9:12 pm
Location: home
Has liked: 0 time
Been liked: 0 time
Grassroots Team: Plympton

Postby Punk Rooster » Sat Apr 01, 2006 7:31 am

Dutchy- Thornton
Bayman- what was the line betting on Bays/Nwd? That bet'd be dead now?

All - as you'd notice,i'll edit the price list to highlight the winning ways out in green (that's the only editing that will take place)
Ralph Wiggum wrote:That's where I saw the leprechaun. He told me to burn things

Ken Farmer>John Coleman

Hindmarsh Pest Control
User avatar
Punk Rooster
Coach
 
 
Posts: 11948
Joined: Thu Oct 27, 2005 9:30 am
Location: Paper Street Soap Company
Has liked: 16 times
Been liked: 16 times
Grassroots Team: Fitzroy

Postby Dutchy » Sat Apr 01, 2006 9:03 am

Punk Rooster wrote:Dutchy- Thornton
Bayman- what was the line betting on Bays/Nwd? That bet'd be dead now?

All - as you'd notice,i'll edit the price list to highlight the winning ways out in green (that's the only editing that will take place)


Clever - Line was +16.5 for the bays at Seal so bayman would be alive

Bayman - do you drive a white car with 4 glenelg stickers on the back?
User avatar
Dutchy
Site Admin
 
 
Posts: 46221
Joined: Sat Nov 05, 2005 8:24 am
Location: Location, Location
Has liked: 2639 times
Been liked: 4303 times

Postby mighty_tiger_79 » Sat Apr 01, 2006 2:02 pm

you would like to think that the white car bayman drives is a really flash vehicle given all the money he makes punting?
User avatar
mighty_tiger_79
Coach
 
Posts: 60937
Joined: Tue Jan 03, 2006 7:29 pm
Location: at the TAB
Has liked: 13432 times
Been liked: 4642 times

pr,mt&dutchy

Postby bayman » Sat Apr 01, 2006 11:55 pm

bet was alive & now a collect so a good start to the year but i was soft i should've done central the line as well

yes thats my car & no its not 'flashy' but it gets me from a to b
i thought secret groups were a thing of the past, well not on websites anyway
bayman
Coach
 
 
Posts: 13922
Joined: Sun Nov 06, 2005 9:12 pm
Location: home
Has liked: 0 time
Been liked: 0 time
Grassroots Team: Plympton

Re: pr,mt&dutchy

Postby Punk Rooster » Sun Apr 02, 2006 5:39 am

bayman wrote:bet was alive & now a collect so a good start to the year but i was soft i should've done central the line as well

yes thats my car & no its not 'flashy' but it gets me from a to b
I heard it was a Porsche?
Ralph Wiggum wrote:That's where I saw the leprechaun. He told me to burn things

Ken Farmer>John Coleman

Hindmarsh Pest Control
User avatar
Punk Rooster
Coach
 
 
Posts: 11948
Joined: Thu Oct 27, 2005 9:30 am
Location: Paper Street Soap Company
Has liked: 16 times
Been liked: 16 times
Grassroots Team: Fitzroy

Postby Dutchy » Sun Apr 02, 2006 8:02 am

When I saw a bloke in a Glenelg shirt walk out of the auditorium I thought it might have been you, by the way whats all the work they are doing in there? changing a few things? do they get reasonable numbers there on friday and sat nights?
User avatar
Dutchy
Site Admin
 
 
Posts: 46221
Joined: Sat Nov 05, 2005 8:24 am
Location: Location, Location
Has liked: 2639 times
Been liked: 4303 times

Next

Board index   General Talk  The Gambling Room

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 5 guests

Around the place

Competitions   SANFL Official Site | Country Footy SA | Southern Football League | VFL Footy
Club Forums   Snouts Louts | The Roost | Redlegs Forum |