GOLF - Australian Masters

[Swervyn]

Will Tiger win? $2.50 at the moment...

Who will challenge him...??

[dodgingandweaving]

Will Tiger win? $2.50 at the moment...

Who will challenge him...??

Tiger can't win. Will be surprised to see him within 10 shots of the winner.

Tight fairways, difficult greens to read & a course where he can't use his wayward river.
I'm trying to find odds on him missing the cut.

[dodgingandweaving]

Marc Leishman is a good E/W chance to win.

[Pottsy]

I'd put a hefty bet on him being within 10 shots of the winner.

But at those odds, I'd lay him for the win on Betfair.

[Swervyn]

Will Tiger win? $2.50 at the moment...

Who will challenge him...??

Tiger can't win. Will be surprised to see him within 10 shots of the winner.

Tight fairways, difficult greens to read & a course where he can't use his wayward river.
I'm trying to find odds on him missing the cut.

surely not!? Missing the cut .. cant happen

[Swervyn]

Marc Leishman is a good E/W chance to win.

Why do you say this? Whats he been like lately?

[overloaded]

you cant seriously contemplate Tiger missing the cut

[dodgingandweaving]

So many things against him. The only thing going with him is the fact he is probably the best golfer we've ever seen.

The travel, the course, the media scrutiny which will be unprecedented to what he has seen (I'm sure he is used to it), the heat, a lot of factors against him.

The sandbelt courses of Melbourne takes years of fine-tuning to master. Kingston Heath isn't a course for Tiger. He can't maul it like he can at other soft venues in the States.

Sure, he has the mental capacity to probably get it around here - But win it? Nup.

The majority of players here have played their amateur golf here for many years, and are used to the tight lies, the different sand texture in the bunkers, and they will know the course like the back of their hand.

That's why I'm going with someone like Leishman who is relatviely fresh out of his amateur career. The young Aussie amateurs play the majority of their national events on the Sandbelt and they know how to handle the layout and the tighter fairways.

[dodgingandweaving]

Marc Leishman is a good E/W chance to win.

Why do you say this? Whats he been like lately?

Has had some good finishes on the PGA Tour this year, 18/28 cuts made, 2nd in the BMW not long ago.
Hails from Melbourne, he will be right at home at Kingston Heath.
Made nearly $2m this year in the States.

[CK]

Marc Leishman is a good E/W chance to win.

Why do you say this? Whats he been like lately?

Has had some good finishes on the PGA Tour this year, 18/28 cuts made, 2nd in the BMW not long ago.
Hails from Melbourne, he will be right at home at Kingston Heath.
Made nearly $2m this year in the States.

Completely agree. A VERY big chance in this field, his form this year in the US has been very good. Also has a solid record of good first round scores, and his style will suit Kingston Heath to the ground.

Tiger struggled at times with the heat in Shanghai last week and his driving was all over the place at times. Wouldn't be shocked to see him miss the cut either.

Michael Sim is another that this course will suit beautifully. Very good last 6 months in the US.

[Dutchy]

Im considering LAYing Tiger, but concerned that the field doesnt have a lot of depth, Tiger could play at 75% and still win

[Bob Loblaw]

I'm trying to find odds on him missing the cut.

$11 on Sportsbet

[dodgingandweaving]

Anyone who backs Tiger at those odds has rocks in their heads. This is not the course for him, and although he is Tiger Woods - The age old addage of 'Horses for courses' is so pertinent on the Melbourne sandbelt.

If he drives it the way he did in Shanghai he WILL miss the cut.

Tiger relies heavily on his supreme short game, even moreso in recent times.

Given the time he will spend swooning corporates before round 1, I just can't see him having enough time to acclimatise to the tight lies he will encounter close to the greens - I know who he is, and how good he is, but he needs to spend hour upon hour practicing around the greens or he will get found out.

Tiger is also not as adept at the bump'n'run type shot so crucial on the Sandbelt.

The WOW shots you see Tiger hit in the States from lush, deep rough where he can get his 60 degree lob wedge out and get underneath it, is a shot he won't encounter here. If he is in the rough, it will be a tight sandy lie with tufts of strong, dry grass surrounding the ball.

I've played courses in the States & the Melbourne sandbelt, and the differences in courses is amazing. The way you need to play them, the way you need to think your way around the layout, the types of grass you hit from. The States courses is grip it and rip it, no bounces on the green on fairways. The Melbourne sandbelt requires you to work and control your ball from the tee, and negotiate the ever-prevalent winds and undulating fairways and greens.
This is a huge test for Tiger. And in many ways would be one of his greatest triumphs, despite the seemingly lack of depth in the field. For mine, he cannot win. Not a snowflakes hope in hell.

[dodgingandweaving]

Marc Leishman is a good E/W chance to win.

Why do you say this? Whats he been like lately?

Has had some good finishes on the PGA Tour this year, 18/28 cuts made, 2nd in the BMW not long ago.
Hails from Melbourne, he will be right at home at Kingston Heath.
Made nearly $2m this year in the States.

Completely agree. A VERY big chance in this field, his form this year in the US has been very good. Also has a solid record of good first round scores, and his style will suit Kingston Heath to the ground.

Tiger struggled at times with the heat in Shanghai last week and his driving was all over the place at times. Wouldn't be shocked to see him miss the cut either.

Marc Leishman $55 on Betfair.

Michael Sim is another that this course will suit beautifully. Very good last 6 months in the US.

[dodgingandweaving]

One of my mates is over there watching the Pro-Am action at the minute.

Tiger easily 6 under through 10 holes.

Says the pins are in easy positions, but he's still flushing it.

[brent-83]

Took Leishman +8 @ $22 as per your advice dodgy.

[dodgingandweaving]

Took Leishman +8 @ $22 as per your advice dodgy.

I hadn't though about betting on him like that, but it's a great bet with great value.

I'm very confident he will be within 5-7 of the lead, is notorious for low first rounds too.

[dodgingandweaving]

Took Leishman +8 @ $22 as per your advice dodgy.

Which bookie was that with? Want to find something similar.

[dodgingandweaving]

Leishman $41.00 end of round 1 leader (Centrebet)

[brent-83]

Took Leishman +8 @ $22 as per your advice dodgy.

Which bookie was that with? Want to find something similar.

TAB mate.