Greyhounds This Week

[Dutchy]

The 7 did exactly what you said, just couldnt battle on when it got a bump, something you cant factor in pre race!

[mal]

The resident expert suggested the 7 Pelican Paul[stooooopid name for a dog .....] would lead as it did
But whatta run by the pink Sportz to be slow out and burn it off and win

[Oaksnaf]

Unfortunately Dutchy, there was too much trouble on the inside boxes giving Bomma Go Go a clear passage.

Pelican Paul.... well can't say much except for "Weak".

Next race.

We have already posted the market. So it is pretty clear cut. But be careful when your analysing Traralgon form and first splits. There is absolutely no real advantage in analysing their first splits.

And Traralgon form doesn't tend to hold up at a lot of tracks. Haven't studied the maths behind the track layout etc, but there has to be a reason why some animals can run 29.69 at Traralgon, but not get close at others.

On that historical basis, #1 is going to be WELL unders. Back to 440m with no indication of early speed. Ignore the watchdog average speed indicator. That is inaccurate. Will get squeezed on the rails too.

We are going/have taking many units on the F4's of these combinations:


8-1,5-1,3,5-1,3,4,5

Our favoured combination is 8-5-3-1 of course.


There is plenty of room for HOT PRICE out-wide as Monkey Moosha is a slow beginner who relies on lots of luck. Also races middle of the track. Dr Talia is slow starter along with Dr Slipstream.


The problem here. Is that we have 1 clear leader. 2 moderate beginners. The rest are slow.

When a leader gets exceptionally far in front, those dogs who like to lead, fade heavily, while those who are strong, tend to do a lot harder chasing as they get dragged along by the speed.


You see it all the time. A placegetter will run 19.79 at Geelong. But can't run 19.79 when leading. This isn't the case for all greyhounds, but for some, it certainly is!

[Oaksnaf]

Maiden Race 9

And our LAW TIP....

#8 WARRALONGA BLACK
#8-4

[mal]

8-5-7-3 race 8
8 Hot Price blitzed them
5 runs the Quinella, Coulta Sally which was a giant of a run
And REO tipped the Quin/Exacta

[Oaksnaf]

That was my shortest rating this year.

If we write down some basic notes on the animals at each start. We can get an understanding that enables us to imagine what happens when the race unfolds.

The problem I had with Monkey Moosha. Is that it, just cant win this race. But with all the slow starters, it was able to ride for luck into 3rd. Hindsight is a wonderful thing, but I am slowly adjusting my way of analysis when you have LOTS of early speed in races, it gives slow starters an advantage. LOTS of slow speed in the race gives the Pingers an advantage.

There is plenty of fine tuning to be had in 2010.






Sale Race 10


Lets look at the basics.

Sale 520m 6/146 races have been won by BOX 4. Why would ever bother placing BOX 4 on top, no matter the greyhound over 520m. It just doesn't seem like smart punting.

Box 1 37/146.....

Find a leader from Box 1 with a split time over the 520m around 9.40 and you have a potential winner. Doesn't have to be a flashy greyhound, can run a solid 29.95 and that will be enough most of the time........ depending on the races suitability.


BOX 1.....around 3-4 lengths off first split....2/31 wins b5-b8. Gets crowded on rails here easily and finds plenty of trouble
BOX 2....2/3 times in money T/D. Early speed..... no. Likes bunny.
BOX 3....Perfectly drawn outside slow starters and can see the rail easily.... likes that at the start with room to move..... CAN show 3 lengths quicker early speed than 1,2. Cross..... YES.
BOX 4....There's no early speed here. Is crammed for room. Worst box by a century and is between two quick beginners. Smash bang.... rear ender.
BOX 5....Begins with the leaders 50% of the time. Has to lead this race and there are better finishers. The Box will suit, no speed from 4. Wont get crossed. Races middle. So suited.
BOX 6....2 lengths off at the start. Slides into the race with a perfect passage as 3,5 clear out. And will ride for that luck.
BOX 7....0/5 at TD and no pace. No luck as can't run through these.REAR.
BOX 8... GOod box. Has reasonable speed early, but cant cross from here. Stuck wide early and will battle on. Place maybe? Others are stronger in finish. UNDERS on tote.....

[Oaksnaf]

Maiden Race 9

And our LAW TIP....

#8 WARRALONGA BLACK
#8-4

#4 wins @ $10.80.

Sale Race 10

3 SPIN THE WHEELS $2.72
5 JUSTA FLOOD $3.35
6 HELLO IVY $7.79
1 DR EVEREST $11.87
8 BLACK CHAMPAGNE $18.10
2 TONY TORTELLINI $34.05
7 BOOMBA BLISTER $42.04
4 RED SHOE ROCKET $79.11

272-EXACTA

[Oaksnaf]

Race 11

3 CLASSY DINERO $3.06
4 BOBENVALE BOY $5.77
6 PHOTON FURY $6.41
2 ROWO ROCKET $9.77
1 PRIMROSE VENUS $12.06
7 RICHMAUR $16.54
5 DR SINARTRA $18.38
8 SPIRIT EXPRESS $22.69

306=QUIN

[Oaksnaf]

Sale Race 12

3 WHERES SAM $3.71
8 MAXS AWESOME $4.58
6 DUNE FURY $6.28
1 DAINTREE ROCKET $6.98
4 JEALOUS JACK $10.64
7 SHEOAK STELLA $18.02
2 LORD RICKY $27.47
5 DR TIA $41.86

371-QUIN

[Oaksnaf]

Funny how some races go exactly to plan, and others just fail.

[Dutchy]

the ups and downs eh? just got to ride them out!

thansk for the input though Oaks, great as usual

[mal]

Good entertainment lads
Gives me something to watch after Bonanza finishes at 5-30

[mighty_tiger_79]

SALE tonight

1 - 6 - wins $1.90
2 - 1 - unpl
4 - 3,7,8 - all unpl
5 - 6,8,2 - 8 3rd
6 - 3,7,8 - 7 3rd
7 - 8,4,1 - 8 wins
10 - 5,8 - 8 2nd

very average results

[Oaksnaf]

The first 6-12 starts of a greyhounds career is where the most variation in time occurs during their racing career.

With this in mind it is important to realise, that an explosive winner on debut, or second start, doesn't necessarily have the ability or a well suited race to perform that again.

Perhaps these animals are ones that we should carefully consider and not jump to a conclusion (like I did last night) after only a handful of starts.

We will be downgrading certain animals on this information with recent discovery of this information.

[mighty_tiger_79]

Shepparton friday morning

race 1

1 - $2.66
7 - $4.05
3 - $5.00
8 - $9.40
4 - $14.33

race 5

5 - $3.20
2 - $4.87
3 - $6.68
1 - $7.42
6 - $9.14
7 - $11.32

race 6

5 - $2.59
8 - $3.20
1 - $6.01
2 - $7.43

race 7

7 - $2.54
3 - $3.87
5 - $4.77
6 - $7.27

race 8

2 - $3.14
3 - $4.30
1 - $5.31
7 - $7.29
5 - $8.10

[mal]

The first 6-12 starts of a greyhounds career is where the most variation in time occurs during their racing career.

With this in mind it is important to realise, that an explosive winner on debut, or second start, doesn't necessarily have the ability or a well suited race to perform that again.

Perhaps these animals are ones that we should carefully consider and not jump to a conclusion (like I did last night) after only a handful of starts.

We will be downgrading certain animals on this information with recent discovery of this information.

When you stop learning
its either
you too good
or too lazy

[Oaksnaf]

If your looking at Sandown tonight, the outside have a distinct advantage in the wet weather as due to the camber of the bend at the boxes, the water slids down to the inside rail, giving those boxes 1-3 a lot poorer surface to race on from the 515m boxes. Same with the racing conditions along the running rail. Better to race just off it.

And Buddy Rose in the next will.

Wet weather conditions also suit greyhounds who show explosive early speed as it is harder to run them down in these types of conditions.

[mal]

The great late Don Scott once wrote in 1 of his books
Non chasers chase better in the wet
Oaky
Agree ?

[Oaksnaf]

I wouldn't have the information to refute that comment.

But I do know that if you do your form study as per normal, then the wet conditions will ruin it.

If we look at Race 8

#1 slow early, likes the open room to run, wont get that as crammed on rails in railers track
#2(10) gets rail here easy and has plenty of pace to burn early, specialist T/D. But likely to fade.
#3 moderate beginner, who will be one off the fence no matter, but has 1 on inside, and gets crunched from outside
#4 Moderate beginner, without consistency. Will be going right initially, then left soon after.
#5 4/5 wins from Box. Lost early speed. Keen to charge into the bends on angle. Likely to get checked off heels when cross
#6 Cant lead this and won't be charging home
#7 Moderate-Fast. Is strong dog who can squeeze inside runners. Will cross, 5,6, then head to outside mid-turn and charge up the back wide and strong.
#8 Leader of the race. Leads for a long way and is perfectly suited. Ignore box stats. Sandown keen railers track.



We will find that #8 is likely to lead. #7 will run it down 50m to go. #10(box 2) can run a ripper of a race at odds. #5 is the smokey, 1 Unders and finds trouble, 3,4,6 not suited by speed and direction early.

[Oaksnaf]

Easy to say after the race. But when you input the RAIN conditions. Leaders win, outside boxes suit. Galba Jack becomes more favoured.

Arvo's FLorence then becomes ridiculous odds. And the others have slim winning chances. Although we did pick that race like a nose, and the overs in the exotics were easily seen in the results.

Race 9 is a similar race.

Pace from outside 7,8. Perfect race scenrario for #5 QUESTA BALE.

#2 gets best chance to lead.

17th Dec at Sandown was a Thursday night wet meeting. Hayder Bale from Box 1 then too. Just didn't like it. Same again tonight.



Form your bets around clear leaders/outside boxes and BEST SUITED animals.