Dutchy'$ Footy 2009

[Dutchy]

Collingwood come into this game with a short prep, last year they had 8 games coming off a 6 day break and went 2-6, sure Geelong are in the same boat tonight but come in with far superior form against teams that both came at them with everything they had. Collingwood beat Melbourne, enough said

Saints were impressive last week and have an 8 day break coming into this clash against the Eagles who have a 6 day break plus travel here, not a good spot IMO, Saints should be too good as WCE will face some pressure, something they didnt see last week.

Carlton come into this game on a full weeks rest against Essendon who had 6 days, Freo actually got more Inside 50;s than the Bombers last week, worrying for Freo but also a worry for Essendon, everything points to a Carlton victory here, MCG hasnt been a happy hunting ground for the Bombers of late

Geelong/St Kilds/Carlton Win
$200 @ $2.30

[beeroclock]

A dabble for interest.Cats under 39.5 @ 2.25,Corey more disposals than Swan @ 1.80,Hawkins more goals than Anthony@ 2.20,Hawkins/Corey vs Anthony/Swan, goals vs disposals respectively @ 4.00.Gunna get out a fiver for this.

[Dutchy]

Sydney +13.5
$110 @ $1.92

[The Ash Man]

Port/NM/Adel/WB pick 4 @ 7.30 on sportsbet
Just a bit of interest on a lazy Sunday...

[Dutchy]

Port Power -33.5
$220 @ $1.91

Adelaide win
$150 @ $2.02

[mighty_tiger_79]

ive jumped on bulldogs -15.5 at $1.75

[another grub]

[
Adelaide win
$150 @ $2.02[/b]

Thankyou for travelling with the Fremantle Express, we hope you enjoyed your trip, please depart in an orderly manner.

[beeroclock]

A dabble for interest.Cats under 39.5 @ 2.25,Corey more disposals than Swan @ 1.80,Hawkins more goals than Anthony@ 2.20,Hawkins/Corey vs Anthony/Swan, goals vs disposals respectively @ 4.00.Gunna get out a fiver for this.

All correct weight but you cant double up in the same game,why is this? Spent 20 min working it out and could have collected near on a ton for 5 clams.

[another grub]

no multis allowed in the same game.... no matter what

[Ecky]

A dabble for interest.Cats under 39.5 @ 2.25,Corey more disposals than Swan @ 1.80,Hawkins more goals than Anthony@ 2.20,Hawkins/Corey vs Anthony/Swan, goals vs disposals respectively @ 4.00.Gunna get out a fiver for this.

All correct weight but you cant double up in the same game,why is this? Spent 20 min working it out and could have collected near on a ton for 5 clams.

Because the events aren't independent - no bookmaker in their right mind would let you put on a multi where both events are from the same game.
Go and buy a probability textbook for a full explanation.

[Q.]

LOL, would be nice if we could multi H2Hs into Margins etc

[beeroclock]

Bugger me,it was a fair long pop dont they want our money.

[Dutchy]

Sturt Win
$500 @ $1.42

Geelong/St Kilds/Carlton Win
$200 @ $2.30

Sydney +13.5
$110 @ $1.92

Port Power -33.5
$220 @ $1.91

Adelaide win
$150 @ $2.02

Week 3 Summary
AFL +$43.20
SANFL +$210.00
TOTAL +$253.20


Dutchy'$ Footy 2009
NAB Cup -$161.50
AFL -$149.20
SANFL +$560.00
TOTAL +$255.60

Collingwood +10.5
$220 @ $1.92

[Dutchy]

Geelong/Saints/Hawks/Central Districts win
$330 @ $1.93

Central Districts -58.5
$100 @ $2.00

Carlton/Richmond
$100 @ $2.42

[Dutchy]

Saints >15.5 / Geelong >15.5 / Richmond win
$150 @ $2.25

[Dutchy]

Been resisting this one all week, but with the teams off 6 day breaks struggling so far have to play it

Saints 40+ into Geelong Win
$100 @ $2.59

[mighty_tiger_79]

GEELONG should win but +6.5 $1.28 BETFAIR

[Dutchy]

Love the Magpies in this spot, Ok they are 0-3 but losses have come against North, Norwood and Glenelg, all expected to come top 4. They return to Alberton for only the 2nd time today and will be very hungry for a win, they havent been playing that bad and arent that far off. They play the Eagles whose form has been indifferent, they had a great win against Glenelg last week but had quite a few things go their way which they took advantage of. eagles havent scored more than 8 goals at Alberton in their last 3 visits there and I expect this gaem to be a closely fought tough battle, therefore taking the +12.5 is value IMO.

Port Magpies +12.5
$230 @ $1.87

Glenelg coming off a loss last week as mentioned but have had a great recent history of covering against West. On a fine day with the Bays hungry I cant see any reason why this wont be a 6+ goal win.

Glenelg -33.5
$100 @ $2.00


This bet is more a fade on Essendon, who celebrated their win against a poor Carlton like the won the GF, even put in advertising in the paper, seems to me their focus might be slightly off this game coming in. While the Roos havent been great and Im not real confident backing them one area that has played well is their defence in Gibson and Hansen, Im confident they can hold Lloyd and Lucas and dry up their avenue to goal. Roos have the motivation here and a good recent record against the Bombers.

North Melbourne Win
$100 @ $2.00

Everyone knows I love the Bullies this year, reckon they will win today in Perth but coming off a 6 day break and their 2nd trip to Perth this year I reckon rocket will be pretty happy to grind a win here and get outta there, also reckon the Eagles will show plenty of fight but expect the Bullies to have a little too much class in the end, dont usually take 1-39 margin bets but see a case for it here

Western Bulldogs 1-39
$100 @ $2.25

[Dutchy]

Collingwood +10.5
$220 @ $1.92 WIN

Geelong/Saints/Hawks/Central Districts win
$330 @ $1.93 LOSS

Central Districts -58.5
$100 @ $2.00 WIN

Carlton/Richmond
$100 @ $2.42 LOSS

Saints >15.5 / Geelong >15.5 / Richmond win
$150 @ $2.25 LOSS

Saints 40+ into Geelong Win
$100 @ $2.59 WIN

Western Bulldogs 1-39
$100 @ $2.25 LOSS

North Melbourne Win
$100 @ $2.00 WIN

Port Magpies +12.5
$230 @ $1.87 LOSS

Glenelg -33.5
$100 @ $2.00 LOSS


Week 4 Summary
AFL -$218.60
SANFL -$230.00
TOTAL -$448.60


Dutchy'$ Footy 2009
NAB Cup -$161.50
AFL -$367.80
SANFL +$330.00
TOTAL -$199.30

[Browny25]

Not a good weekend!

Ouch..