2011 Brownlow

[Mr_Willy]

They are saying on Twitter and Facebook it may chance later... Dare say in the days leading up they'll allow more legs....

[brent-83]

The money keeps coming for Goodes on Sportsbet. Now at 5.00 for the Brownlow.
7.00 on Centrebet

Can not see Goodes getting more than 25 at an absolute maximum. Not sure I'd take $5 for that to be enough votes.

[CK]

The money keeps coming for Goodes on Sportsbet. Now at 5.00 for the Brownlow.
7.00 on Centrebet

Can not see Goodes getting more than 25 at an absolute maximum. Not sure I'd take $5 for that to be enough votes.

Agreed, Brent. Will finish hard though, and may pick up as many as 11 votes in the closing five rounds. It might make the quinella of Judd/Goodes and Murphy/Goodes worth assessing.

Wouldn't completely discount Scott Thompson from a top 5 finish either. We know he polls, and polls in losses also. I reckon he may have close to 20 votes, with a strong start to the season and a good finish. Will have a few rounds in the middle where he won't get votes, though.

[CoverKing]

Leader at round 12? What are peoples thoughts?

[brent-83]

The money keeps coming for Goodes on Sportsbet. Now at 5.00 for the Brownlow.
7.00 on Centrebet

Can not see Goodes getting more than 25 at an absolute maximum. Not sure I'd take $5 for that to be enough votes.

Agreed, Brent. Will finish hard though, and may pick up as many as 11 votes in the closing five rounds. It might make the quinella of Judd/Goodes and Murphy/Goodes worth assessing.

Wouldn't completely discount Scott Thompson from a top 5 finish either. We know he polls, and polls in losses also. I reckon he may have close to 20 votes, with a strong start to the season and a good finish. Will have a few rounds in the middle where he won't get votes, though.

I reckon Goodes finishes 3rd or 4th (of the eligible players) - I think Judd, Pendlebury and Swan are a good chance to be ahead of him.

[OnSong]

Leader at round 12? What are peoples thoughts?

Fyfe!

[MAY-Z]

Leader at round 12? What are peoples thoughts?

15 Murphy, Marc
14 Watson, Jobe
14 Selwood, Joel
14 Judd, Chris
13 Pendlebury, Scott
13 Fyfe, Nathan
12 O'Keefe, Ryan
12 Boyd, Matthew
12 Franklin, Lance
11 Moloney, Brent
10 Ablett, Gary
10 Bolton, Jude
10 Mitchell, Sam

[CoverKing]

No one thinks Martin can be a chance?

[brent-83]

Leader at round 12? I wouldn't have him as any sort of chance no..

[CoverKing]

Wouldn't suprise me if he is on 13 votes. We won a couple early games, he kicked bags, was being talked about in the media as a possible AA. Will go close IMO

[brent-83]

Best case scenario for Martin at the end of round 12 is 10 votes for me with the following breakdown.

Round 2 - 2 votes, Milne BOG with 24 touches 4 goals 7.
Round 5 - 3 votes
Round 6 - 3 votes
Round 12 - 2 votes

[CoverKing]

Best case scenario for Martin at the end of round 12 is 10 votes for me with the following breakdown.

Round 2 - 2 votes, Milne BOG with 24 touches 4 goals 7.
Round 5 - 3 votes
Round 6 - 3 votes
Round 12 - 2 votes

Milne cost the saints the game, reckon Martin may get 3 that day. Will be interesting to see. I back your votes though

[PPLions]

Inside Football Magazine tips Swan to take the Medal which was an interesting selection

[Johno6]

im gonna whack a fair chunk of change (for me anyway) on him for top 5 at $1.90

[brent-83]

I've taken Judd-Pendlebury-Swan and Judd-Swan-Pendlebury trifectas at VicTAB at 13/15 each. May also look for Pendle-Judd-Swan before closing.

[PPLions]

A bit of variance in the odds at the moment:

Judd
Centrebet 1.62
Sportsbet 1.95
Sportingbet 1.85
Tattsbet 1.90

Goodes
Centrebet 5.00
Sportsbet 4.30
Sportingbet 4.50
Tattsbet 5.00

Pendlebury
Centrebet 7.00
Sportsbet 7.00
Sportingbet 7.50
Tattsbet 6.00

Swan
Centrebet 13.00
Sportsbet 16.00
Sportingbet 11.00
Tattsbet 13.00

[Squids]

My bets that I am actually confident on:

Judd to win (he's going to romp it in)
Judd half way
Priddis top 5 (someone has to get WC votes, why not him)
Mitchell v Boyd
Priddis v Swallow
Priddis WC most votes
Mumford best ruck group (TAB)
Swan vs Boyd


Others

Priddis - in the trenches (centrebet) - Mitchell will likely him but always chance umpires overlook him due to suspension.
Essendon any other player (Watson missed alot of games...)


Basically against Boyd and Goodes polling well.

[Pat Malone]

I've got a fair chunk of my winnings (over $1000) from a previous bet (posted in horse tips) on:

Dean Cox most votes WCE - $2.25
Adam Goodes MV Syd - $1.06
Nat Fyfe MV Freo - $1.75
Sam Mitchell MV Hawks - $1.08
Scott Thompson MV Crows - $1.02

Multi'd at $4.60. I think they are all certainties, barring perhaps Cox, who isnt a proven vote getter but should poll better than Priddis. I've seen 8 Eagles games live this year though, so confident he can turn around his previous record of not attracting many votes.

Side bets

$50 Stanton most votes Ess @ $8 = $400
$50 Heppell most votes Ess @ $26 = $1300
$100 Rockliff most votes Bris @ $7 = $700

Think Watson will get 12-15 to half way and thats about it, if the others can pick up 5-6 by this stage I reckon they are huge value. Rockliff is more a value bet than any real hope, we all know Black gets votes and had a blinder of a year, however I dont think Brisbane won enough games for him to pull any 3's and pull away from Rockliff.

[Dutchy]

Im Laying Judd @ $2.12 and backing Boyd @ $30 - only small stakes.

Zaharakis ess most votes $34
Sylvia Melb $13
Wells NM $3.75
Rodan PA $21
Martin (Rich) into Pendles $2.07

[brent-83]

Judd, Swan, Pendlebury trifecta @ $15
Judd, Pendlebury, Swan trifecta @ $13

Thompson, Judd, Pendlebury, Watson, Fyfe, Selwood, Ablett, Maloney, Swallow, Boak, Cotchin, Boyd, Goodes most team votes @ ~$39

$100 on each.