by Oaksnaf » Sat Aug 22, 2009 4:10 pm
Race 2 Grade 5 525m
#1 DYNA BATTISTA You can forgive last run at Sandown when ran last as a reserve from box 5 as was completly outlcassed. Raced quite well in a slow time at Cranbourne Monday as had to really use plenty of strength to push through in a bunching field at the bend. Does lack early pace and has a poor winning strike rate. Is third race this week and I think will really struggle once again. Especially based on recent efforts.
Overall: No.
#2 COSMIC CHIEF Looks a handy type and proved punters right at Geelong in July when won in a fantastic 25.66. Didn't begin that well last start over this track/dist mid-week. But when he was hitting his strides, he got severly checked. Had to re-start the motor and go right round the two who blocked him. Still ran 30.73. Might be a tad short in betting for my liking. But will be a big show.
Overall: One of the top chances.
#3 COCO HOKO POKO Fell last start. And normally those who have fallen last start (pending injuries) perform quite well at their next race start. I don't have any data on it, but from what i have seen it goes alright. Before that won at Bendigo over 545m in weak company and was odds on favourite. The time was 31.55. Which isn't something to boast about, and nor is his winning strike rate. I dont think he can lead here today.
Overall: Won't lead, so has no chance of winning.
#4 GUACAMOLE Is in a leading kennel (Darren McDonald) and really does charge home late. But always tends to find trouble. Raced really wide last start at Sandown, but still charged home for second in 30.22. Which is a stellar performance. Motored home at Cranbourne second last start in the straight to get third. But it's the start of the race that you have to worry about. If he is anywhere near them in the middle section, then he should win. And I think judging by the pace around that today will be his day.
Overall: The one to beat.
#9 (5) ZINGARELLA Has been racing over far shorter distances of late and will need to lead clearly to have any chance. Can ignore last start at Warragul as was pushed wide and hit a traffic jam on the bend. At Cranbourne on 10th August, showed nice early speed and race time was strong. Just seemed to lose footing a little in the straight.
Overall: Distance a huge query
#6 DAWN'S SPIRIT Got a dream run through the pack at Warrnambool last start from box 7 after a tardy getaway. Still didn't run the most exciting race as only went 25.84 in the run. Was a bit tardy in the finish at Geelong on the 14th August, but showed great early speed. Has only scored 3 career race wins and 457m seems to be about the right distance. Not quite sure how she will go here as could well lead the field, which will give her a great opportunity.
Overall: Take as your roughy of the race
#7 HEZA GAMBLE Has only placed 2/12 times from boxes 6-8 which is of concern. But has placed over this track and distance 3/5. Last run at Horsham was a bit disappointing as began quite well early but then just went backwards really quickly, only to get a rails run and finish off steadily in fourth. Disappointing, because the run previous to that at Traralgon charged home last from box 1 to finish second. I would have thought that Heza Gamble would race well with no pressure with being squashed against the rail, but the box stats seem to prove me wrong.
Overall: Place chance.
#8 MOLLY GRACE Another with a poor winning strike rate. Had a perfect race last start at Warrnambool running 25.85. Is a realiable beginner. Something that is pretty rare in this field. Has run 30.43 over this trip from box 3, when just run down by Kenny John. I would say we are going to see a similar story here with Guacamole running her down in the final 50m. Needs to lead here though.
Overall: Will run a cheeky race.
Selections: 4-2-8-7
This is a race in two for win. And the market will more than likely prove that opinion to be true.
Market:
#1 $15
#2 $4.5
#3 $26
#4 $3
#9 $21
#6 16
#7 $12
#8 $7.50