Brownlow Medal

[Dutchy]

Have jumped on the multi of WC flag, Harvey B'low: $5 to win $918
Syd/Harvey: $5 to win $1785
Coll/Harvey: $2 to win $1734.

Hmmm...Harvey now into $17 for the Medal, a big shortener again on the weekend...West Coast at $3.35. It's a long road ahead, but at this stage, it's getting interesing!! (Syd $16, Coll $17).

Crazy stuff....you can get double that on Betfair ($34-)....unreal

[Stumps]

Another 3 votes by the looks today too dutchy?!? harvey is officially on fire.

[Dutchy]

Another 3 votes by the looks today too dutchy?!? harvey is officially on fire.

yep into $12.50 now on BF....32 touches today...go boomer!!!

[Dutchy]

Just had $40- on Boomer Harvery @ $60- for the Brownlow, can really see him shortening in and then the layoff opportunity will open up...

B Harvey another BOG tonight to think he was 100/1 8 weeks ago!!!

[Plunge Penguin]

Have jumped on the multi of WC flag, Harvey B'low: $5 to win $918
Syd/Harvey: $5 to win $1785
Coll/Harvey: $2 to win $1734.

Hmmm...Harvey now into $17 for the Medal, a big shortener again on the weekend...West Coast at $3.35. It's a long road ahead, but at this stage, it's getting interesing!! (Syd $16, Coll $17).

Crazy stuff....you can get double that on Betfair ($34-)....unreal

It's getting interesting for both of us now, Dutchy! Added the Geel/Harvey double to that as a saver at $21 (yes, a lot shorter than the odds on the others of course, but keeps it alive going into the finals - would still come out a long, long way in front).

[Dutchy]

Im sure Boomer would have got at least 2 votes yesterday and probably 3 where I dont think Ablett will get a vote today....for mine its Ablett or Harvey....Ive layed Harvey for a small profit no matter what result but still got him to win $2k

[Plunge Penguin]

Harvey into $4.25 and keeps shortening...the more I think of it, the more it gets harder to think who can/will beat him. Some media outlets gave him up to ten BOG's and another few games when in the best for Roos (both wins and losses). Sure, G.Ablett has had a sensational year, but will have to lose a fair few to Bartel, Corey, Kelly, Chapman, even Ottens. No doubt the Cats will have plenty of 3-2-1 games, but hard to see who will take votes from Harvey in many winning games.

Having said that, my Syd/Harvey multi died on the weekend: still got WC, Coll (one being knocked out this week) and Geel riding into him.

That said, still some interesting value to be found e/w. The likes of McLeod ($5.25 a place - pays top 3), C. Cornes ($2.50 the place) and Mitchell at $3.25 all look fair. No huge roughies leaping out, although reckon could get a sight for your money on Priddis to run top 5 (bearing in mind suspended players ineligible there) at $41, Dal Santo at $35 (seems to catch the umpires eye) and even Hamish McIntosh (contradicting most of what I've said up there!! at $35 may be ones to throw into small multis.

Who knows though?

[Ecky]

My advice on Brownlow betting:

The bookies keep detailed records of the best players from every game and frame their markets accordingly.
The average punter goes on "gut feelings".

So unless you keep detailed records, I would stay well away from Brownlow betting, especially at this time of the year - it is a great money-spinner for the bookies with far too much percentage...

[Plunge Penguin]

My advice on Brownlow betting:

The bookies keep detailed records of the best players from every game and frame their markets accordingly.
The average punter goes on "gut feelings".

So unless you keep detailed records, I would stay well away from Brownlow betting, especially at this time of the year - it is a great money-spinner for the bookies with far too much percentage...

Not strictly true, Ecky, although I take your point. Having seen a fair few of the games this year, just a general observation about Harvey in particular - if the Roos win many of their games, they should get two lots of votes at least per match; in that case, hard to see who would regularly take votes from Harvey (yes, Petrie will get three for his seven goal game, for example, but generally would expect Harvey to get votes here also with a 23 kick, 4 handball match in a big win - so yes, I certainly do keep records ).

[Ecky]

I wasn't implying that you were an "average" punter, PP - just talking in general.

I just reckon that it is much easier to outsmart a bookie with odds on a single game, than it is to outsmart them on the Brownlow market, as they spend a lot more time researching the Brownlow than they do researching the odds for a particular game (especially SANFL games )

[Dutchy]

Agree its tough Ecky, thats why I will only back roughies after a few games, Harvey was $100- the week before I got on at $60-, I reckon there is a huge chance he will be leading at the time I got on (like Mouse last year) Ive made cash betting on the Roos highest vote getter the last 3 years, but you have to get the odds as soon as they open up as there are too many smarties out there that jump on any overs, 2-3 years ago they opened Shannon Grant up at $3-00 for the Roos high vote getter, by the time the count started he was into $1.30...

Its very interesting looking at the trading charts on Betfair...e.g. Harvey was traded at $120- at one stage!!! and G Ablett had a trade at $150-!!!

[ORDoubleBlues]

Sure, G.Ablett has had a sensational year, but will have to lose a fair few to Bartel, Corey, Kelly, Chapman, even Ottens.

and probably Steven Johnson as well.

[JK]

I've got Harvey at 251/1 and will probably look to lay on GAB Jr as I really think he's the man to beat, wish I'd done it sooner though.

[G]

As a matter of interest CP, at what stage of the year did you get the 250/1 Harvey ?

[JK]

As a matter of interest CP, at what stage of the year did you get the 250/1 Harvey ?

Can't quite remember mate, but I'd say it was either REAL early, or prior to Round 1 ... Thought I actually took GAB Jr aswell, but can't seem to find a listed bet for that

Got C.Cornes at same time for around $101

[G]

Good stuff CP and if I was you I would keep searching for the Ablett bet because if you threw something on him as well, you've pretty well got the market cornered.

[Dutchy]

nice CP, makes my 60/1 look ordinary!

I reckon its between Ablett and Harvey, cant see anyone else winning

[The Dutchman]

You can bet on the brownlow leader after round 11. Any thoughts?

Bartel is paying $5...thought he started the season on fire?

[mighty_tiger_79]

im not betting on the BROWNLOW until AG lets us know of the leak........

[LT Smash]

I reckon I've struck up a pretty decent multi:

The following players just have to get the most votes from their CLUB:
Daniel Kerr (WCE)
Matthew Pavlich (FREM)
Jonathan Brown (BL)
Brent Harvey (KANG)
Gary Ablett (GEEL)
Sam Mitchell (HAW)
Adam Goodes (SYD)

throw in the Geelong/Port GF quinella and it pays out a cool $5.18

Thoughts?