AFL/SANFL RD 21 DISCUSSION

[mal]

I think JJ is right
I have had 2 bets first to 25
I won both bets
CA V CO
RI V CO
Both times i nearly got the $4

Dont forget GE are top, and may not be tuned up early

[mighty_tiger_79]

Power 1st to 25 pts @ $3.35 against Geelong are amazing odds.
Just put a Grand on them and will put more on later if i have a good week on the punt.
Geelong are $1.28.

Thought it would be more like $1.55 - $2.50.

just keep sticking to JACKPOTS!!!!!!!!!

that is a shocking bet!!!!!!!!

the last time these 2 teams played it took the power 3 1/4's to get to 25 points!!!!!!!!!!!!

Too many punters base their bets on history and they're usually the ones that go broke the quickest. Last weeks, last months , last years results have no bearing on this weeks result. Going on Current Form, the prices for the 1st team to 25 pts,( factoring in the possibilities of a strong wind advantage etc.) are Far too Far apart.Good Punting is all about Spotting VALUE and in MY mind, $3.35 is Value. It doesn,t meen that i'm going to win the Bet, But overall i thing i would come out in Front if this match was played 20 times over and coming out in FRONT overall is what it is all about.
MT79, if you think mine is a Shocking Bet then i Trust you will Be Loading up on Geelong @ $1.28.

JJ i wont be loading up on the cats first to 25 pts

ill be on the cats to lead all the way

ill be on the cats 40+

[Punk Rooster]

ill be on the cats 40+

what price do you need to tempt you?
I would've thought $2.20 or better??

I have taken-
St Kilda 1 unit @ $2.30
BL 1 unit @ $2.95
Stk/BL 1 unit @ $6.64
ST K/BL/Ri 1 unit @ $17.92

[Dutchy]

Power 1st to 25 pts @ $3.35 against Geelong are amazing odds.
Just put a Grand on them and will put more on later if i have a good week on the punt.
Geelong are $1.28.

Thought it would be more like $1.55 - $2.50.

just keep sticking to JACKPOTS!!!!!!!!!

that is a shocking bet!!!!!!!!

the last time these 2 teams played it took the power 3 1/4's to get to 25 points!!!!!!!!!!!!

Too many punters base their bets on history and they're usually the ones that go broke the quickest. Last weeks, last months , last years results have no bearing on this weeks result. Going on Current Form, the prices for the 1st team to 25 pts,( factoring in the possibilities of a strong wind advantage etc.) are Far too Far apart.Good Punting is all about Spotting VALUE and in MY mind, $3.35 is Value. It doesn,t meen that i'm going to win the Bet, But overall i thing i would come out in Front if this match was played 20 times over and coming out in FRONT overall is what it is all about.
MT79, if you think mine is a Shocking Bet then i Trust you will Be Loading up on Geelong @ $1.28.

Know where your coming from JJ and honesty hope you collect, however history does play a huge part of many successful punters high strikerates....Ive seen it too many times.

Geelong have won 14 of the last 15 first 1/4's, and the last 6 by an average of 21 points, personally I wouldnt be backing against that stat, on a positive though Port have won their last 7 ast 1/4's but against some ordinary sides

but seriously good luck and will be watching this one with interest

[bayman]

http://www.sportsbet.com.au have put up their prices- i'm seeing 3 gifts....

PAM $2.30..............1.60
NWD $1.60..............2.30

WA $5.00.....................12.00
WWT $1.16....................1.06

NA $1.45....................1.75
GL $2.75.....................2.10

CD $1.62.......................1.50
ST $2.25........................2.45

that would be my market so i'll be having a bet

[G]

Personally I think the whole idea of betting the first to 25 is absolute garbage unless you're betting just before the jump.
What happens if there's a 4 or 5 goal breeze and you are kicking into it - you're stuffed before you start.
I prefer to be more calculated in my bets rather than rely on luck.

[bayman]

Personally I think the whole idea of betting the first to 25 is absolute garbage unless you're betting just before the jump.
What happens if there's a 4 or 5 goal breeze and you are kicking into it - you're stuffed before you start.
I prefer to be more calculated in my bets rather than rely on luck.

i agree G, if you have that bet personally i'd wait for the toss & to see how the weather etc was before having that type of bet

[Dutchy]

only problem Lads is they pull that type of betting off the boards before the toss....trust me Ive tried it before!!!

[mal]

Personally I think the whole idea of betting the first to 25 is absolute garbage unless you're betting just before the jump.
What happens if there's a 4 or 5 goal breeze and you are kicking into it - you're stuffed before you start.
I prefer to be more calculated in my bets rather than rely on luck.

G you have explained why its a good bet
If the betting is $1-25 and $3-80
you would love to be the $3-80 team if they kick with a 5 goal breeze
Sure its luck of the toss but why not fluke being on the $3-80 team with the wind

[jackpot jim]

Personally I think the whole idea of betting the first to 25 is absolute garbage unless you're betting just before the jump.
What happens if there's a 4 or 5 goal breeze and you are kicking into it - you're stuffed before you start.
I prefer to be more calculated in my bets rather than rely on luck.

G you have explained why its a good bet
If the betting is $1-25 and $3-80
you would love to be the $3-80 team if they kick with a 5 goal breeze
Sure its luck of the toss but why not fluke being on the $3-80 team with the wind

Spot on MAL.
Successful Betting is NOT about backing a winner with every bet but it's about winning overall and you do that by betting on VALUE. Taking into account, the Toss, Breeze, umpiring Bias etc, etc, etc, I consider the $3.35 about Power 1 st to 25 pts is Value.

Talking about GARBAGE Betting, Yes I agree that a Lot of the Betting options available on footy are Garbage But thats Bcos of the Shit odds Offered Like the 1st Score of the match Geel Goal $3.00, Point $3.25, Power Goal $3.75, Point $3.90. These Odds are CRAP, But if Geelong were $4.20 for a goal well then i would Load up Bcos the Odds would be mathematically in my Favour.

GEE GEE......All Bets Require a certain amount of luck to succeed, some more than others, But at the End of the Day, it comes down to whether the Odds you take are VALUE regaurdless of whether you need luck to win.

[mal]

http://www.sportsbet.com.au have put up their prices- i'm seeing 3 gifts....

PAM $2.30..............1.60
NWD $1.60..............2.30

WA $5.00.....................12.00
WWT $1.16....................1.06

NA $1.45....................1.75
GL $2.75.....................2.10

CD $1.62.......................1.50
ST $2.25........................2.45

that would be my market so i'll be having a bet

Theres seems to be an abnorMALity
Punk and Sportsbet have the reverse market for the PA V NW match.
I have just viewed the Sportsbet site
and low and behold
the PA V NW game is not listed on the site
The other 3 SANFL games are

Has Punk unloaded perhaps.....

[Dutchy]

Dutchy has!!!

[Ecky]

All Bets Require a certain amount of luck to succeed, some more than others, But at the End of the Day, it comes down to whether the Odds you take are VALUE regaurdless of whether you need luck to win.

Exactly. Well said JJ - this post really belongs in the "how to win gambling" thread. If you don't understand this, you will never be a successful punter.

[mal]

All Bets Require a certain amount of luck to succeed, some more than others, But at the End of the Day, it comes down to whether the Odds you take are VALUE regaurdless of whether you need luck to win.

Exactly. Well said JJ - this post really belongs in the "how to win gambling" thread. If you don't understand this, you will never be a successful punter.

I strongly endorse the JJ comment as well
If you find VALUE you find success
Luck is a factor as well but if you keep getting $2-10 the toss of a coin you
will eventually over-ride the luck factor

For those that dont know JJ
He was a down and out type of punter once upon a time but these days
is forging a reputation as being one of the most astute gamblers going around.

I suggest we all listen to him, follow him and charge our glasses of wine with the victories.

[Punk Rooster]

http://www.sportsbet.com.au have put up their prices- i'm seeing 3 gifts....

PAM $2.30..............1.60
NWD $1.60..............2.30

WA $5.00.....................12.00
WWT $1.16....................1.06

NA $1.45....................1.75
GL $2.75.....................2.10

CD $1.62.......................1.50
ST $2.25........................2.45

that would be my market so i'll be having a bet

Theres seems to be an abnorMALity
Punk and Sportsbet have the reverse market for the PA V NW match.
I have just viewed the Sportsbet site
and low and behold
the PA V NW game is not listed on the site
The other 3 SANFL games are

Has Punk unloaded perhaps.....

Punk has not unloaded.
Punk got burnt on the CD v NA game- betting outside my staking plan.
All my hard work came undone on 1 bet.

My plan is-
5% for my selections @ value
10% for selections @ significant overs

[Punk Rooster]

I have backed-

PAM's 2 units @ $2.30
PAM/WWT/CD 1 unit @ $4.32

also:
WWT/PAM's 1 unit @ $2.67

[Dutchy]

tread warily if backing Centrals this week...

[mal]

Tread warily if backing West Adelaide this week ...

[Dutchy]

Bays now out to $3.30...almost makes it a bet for me considering they have better recent form than North, thoughts Ecky?

[Punk Rooster]

St Kilda into $1.91 with http://www.sportsbet.com.au after opening up @ $2.25.

I had 1 unit @ $2.25 (44%)
I can now get WCE $1.91 (53%) to guarantee a profit.

Question- do I guarantee a profit, or ride the overs?

I have decided that unless the Weagles blow out, I'll ride the overs- if it was a very large bet, I would lock in the guaranteed profit.