SA Footy

HVL R8

1 CURNOW KEATS 3.11
2 HOT FIASCO 4.73
6 SUPERIOR BONT 5.84
8 BANJOS AFFAIR 8.91
4 GEORGIA KATE 13.58
7 SIDESHOW MARJEN 15.09
5 SPECKIE MCKEAN 22.99

I've posted a few races these past two months.

I'm going to start a $10 challenge. I will also post the bets on here (placed on S-TAB) post race to show where the balance is at.

Here are the simple rules.

1) Wagering an overlay. (all based on fixed odds S-TAB)
We use the Kelly Criterion calculation to formulate our $$ spent on the overlay. Once you have done the kelly X that number by $20 and it will give you your wagering size and round to the nearest 50c (if it rounds to $0, then it's not a bet). We will only wager when an overlay exists on a runner that is rated under $10.

2) Exacta
For every runner that is rated under $10 that is an overlay we will place $2 on an Exacta for that overlay to win with the top rating selection to come 2nd. If the Top Rating is an overlay, it is simply $2 exacta on 1-2 rating.

3) Trifecta
Whatever amount is left over after the Win/Exacta bet. We will place a bet Overlay-Top Rating - Field for a Flexi. The bet will be $1 each.

Some races we won't spend our $10 of course, and on the odd race, we may go slightly over. But we should go close to $10 a race.

I would expect to make 5-10% Return on Investment.
At least this way it makes the markets more meaningful.

Please critique in all ways possible as we go along.

SALE RACE 7

2 ULTIMATE BLING 3.37
8 UP AND ABOUT 4.17
1 ZAMBORA BEAR 7.05
3 WEEONA PETE 8.71
7 AIRLY SPENCE 9.68
5 ROSE MIKADO 18.21
4 MADALIA MAGGIE 27.75
6 SLICK MAGGIE 79.58

For this race here are the example bets:

#1 50c win
#7 $1.5 win
Exacta
1-2 $2
7-2 $2
Tri
1-2-F $1
7-2-F $1

Total Spend $8

SALE RACE 8

5 DEGANI 2.63
4 JOHNS LAST 6.11
6 PERRIE THE FAIRY 9.31
1 FROST US 10.35
7 LOUFIE 12.77
8 MEPUNGA BONNIE 14.19
2 HOT PIES 17.52
3 SPLINTER 21.63

SALE RACE 10

9 SHADY TEX 4.04
6 SPRING HUMMER 4.99
3 CLOSE ENCOUNTER 5.55
5 GOLDRUSH ROSE 6.85
7 LOTTIE GLENDA 9.40
1 CRUISYS ROSE 14.32
4 FRAN KEEPING 26.95
10 BUSH BRO 77.29

OUT $26.5
IN $0

Early start at Shep due to the heat. GL MT for Lektra Flirt.

SHEP RACE 3

2 POWER LOAD 3.37
3 YOU SUNSHINE 5.14
1 ZAMBEZI ICON 6.35
7 SILVER COMPASS 8.71
8 ORIENTAL SUGAR 9.67
5 GOOD MATE RUSTY 10.75
4 CULLQUIN MARCEL 24.97

SHEP RACE 5

7 CRACKED SODA 2.72
6 JETTAS SHOUT 4.14
4 SONOMA ICON 7.79
1 ARANCINI 11.87
2 WENONA BALE 13.19
5 PONTIAC ICON 16.28
8 YOU BLAST 24.82

SHEP RACE 7

5 BLAZIN BULLA 3.50
4 LEKTRA FLIRT 5.93
1 HELLO COBBER 6.59
8 GUNMETAL LIAM 8.13
7 COYOTE UGLY 9.04
9 SCOTT CONFUSED 13.77
6 GALLANT TOBY 18.89
2 DORANS CALL 28.80

SHEP RACE 8

4 TAT JAMES 2.86
2 HADDI BALE 5.39
6 HILLBILLY BOY 5.99
8 MI ROMA 9.13
1 UNCLE RICO 13.91
7 BRING THE SPRING 15.46
3 SENSE 19.09

SHEP RACE 9

5 NO ROOM 3.38
3 AWESOME ASSET 6.36
4 PLAY ALONG 7.85
1 MUSTERED COURAGE 8.72
8 BANJO BLADE 10.77
6 NIMBLE NALA 11.97
7 SUPER SWITCH 14.78
9 LISAS EDGE 16.42

Could be a bad night for Sportsbet

If r6-1, R7-1 & R8-7 all win

BALLARAT RACE 6

8 MAINA HONEY 3.65
10 STAVROS 5.00
3 GAME SPIRIT 7.62
4 YOU RIPPA RIPPA 9.41
1 DIEGO FERNANDO 10.46
7 LOCK PEPPER 11.62
5 MY MASCARA 14.35
6 JACOBITE JOSEPH 26.99

Lektra Bear ran much better this morning.
Only just caught the replay.
Didnt break tier time

BALLARAT R12

6 SUDOKU NINJA 2.67
9 KRYPTON GIRL 3.29
4 MEMA WIBBLE 7.65
1 MARAMBA 11.66
2 KILLANA 27.09
3 PINNAROO 37.17
7 MY FERNANDO TIM 45.88
8 PYRENEES CLASSIC 50.98

CRAN R5

5 RECO TONIC 3.90
1 GLAYVA 5.35
3 GRACELANDS 6.60
2 BIG BUBBLES 7.34
8 NINETYMILE LENNY 8.15
4 KINLOCK JOURNEY 12.42
7 ALLL YOU GOT 23.38
6 TAKE A ROSE 43.99

CRAN R6

2 SECRET THOUGHTS 4.15
1 TEKIDANTO 5.69
6 STYLISH MISSILE 6.32
7 ARTEMISIA 7.80
3 PENNINE WAY 8.67
8 SARCASMIC 10.70
5 CUTE PATOOTIE 16.31
4 GYPSY KIOWA 37.89

mighty_tiger_79 wrote:Could be a bad night for Sportsbet

If r6-1, R7-1 & R8-7 all win

All win.

Sportsbet...
R6-1 they opened $4 into $2.50
R7-1 $2.45 into $1.12
R8-7 $4.40 into around $2.60

Know a few people who were on those in a multi!

Few running in the next couple days

Tomorrow
Angle park
Race 1 box 6 Mister Kingswood
Still not showing what he can do on the trial track, hopefully gets some space in the small field and runs top3 at best.

Race 7 box 6 Miss Breakout
I’d like to see a bit more fitness before investing, too short, watch.

Thursday
Angle park
Race 7 box 6 Miss Takiri
Good tough win last start and starting to run with confidence. Turn 1 a worry again but she should be thereabouts. Each way

Friday
Gawler
Race 2 box 2 Springvale Jorja
Trialling really well and comes into a reasonably week heat of the series. Should be going close here with any luck. Win bet


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Lektra Bear
Bendigo r10-8

Already backed in from $2.50 - $1.85

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MEADOWS R3

4 CHRISTO BALE 2.99
3 ASTON DYNAMO 4.55
2 ATHENAS WARRIOR 8.57
6 GYPSYS MINDY 9.52
7 ROAD TO SUCCESS 11.75
1 WHO CRY NOW 13.06
8 SWEET IMPALA 16.12

Mister Kingswood wins at huge odds!


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Groover wrote:Mister Kingswood wins at huge odds!


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Hope you had something on!!!

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