mighty_tiger_79 wrote:The Ash Man wrote:Anyone ever looked at footyforecast.com?
Quite interesting
have now
thanks for the link
Another handy site I stumbled on was this:
http://www.astutebetting.com/sports/aussie-rulesI was reading up on betting on the draw.
"There has been a draw once every 95 games in more than a century history of the VFL/AFL.
However, this varies greatly between each club. Below I have listed how often a draw occurs for each Club, these are sorted from the most frequent to least frequent.
Brisbane Lions 54
University 63
Essendon 69
Carlton 72
Fitzroy 77
Western Bulldogs 80
Port Adelaide 80
Collingwood 93
St Kilda 95
Sydney 101
Richmond 103
North Melbourne 104
Geelong 106
Melbourne 111
Brisbane Bears 111
West Coast 112
Hawthorn 177
Adelaide 459
Fremantle No Draws
Now let’s remember that for a long time the bookies offered odds of $51; the TAB virtually still keeps it at this price.
That means that there is no club, not even a particular decade in history that you would have made a profit on backing the draw! The odds are ridiculous low.
Granted, there are now some corporate bookies that will now pay $61 or $67 on a draw, however this is still very low.
I used the line market that the bookies were offering as this seems a reasonable way to judge the pre game perception of how close the match was likely to be.
I compared in various brackets of the line market how often the draw would occur per games when prices in that bracket were offered.
The result below astounded me!
Points Line Margin Bracket Occurance
0 to 6 - 31
6.5 to 15 - 164
15.5 to 24 - 165
24.5 to 36 - 63
36.5+ - 111
Quite clearly when the bookies offered a line of a goal or less, i.e. they thought the match was fairly evenly balanced, a draw occurred far more regularly.
Therefore, there are two ways whereby betting on the draw where you can have an edge:
1. If you want to back a draw, do so on matches where the bookies are offering a line of under a goal.
2. For all other games you should avoid backing, or say jump onto one of the exchanges and lay the draw off at say under $70 a match. You will be more slightly competitive than the bookies, but theoretically have the value on your side. The major problem with this is there is often a lack of liquidity in the draw market - laying off every single AFL game at that price would be very difficult!"
Great tip!
Posted: Wed Jun 13, 2012 6:19 pmBad kicking is bad footy