Horse Racing Tips & Discussion

[LPH]

Loophole is scratched - alternative bet: Ball of Muscle the PLACE in Race 8... currently $2 on Sportsbet
Should take some running down over the 5 furlongs - if I get $6 the Win, I'll take that too.

[LPH]

Disappointing Day today
Although I backed Tarzino, I was happy for the owners of Palentino that this Protest was dismissed - to be fair, looked like more interference in this race than the last! Makes a joke of the previous Protest being upheld.

[Spargo]

RIP Bede Murray.

[OnSong]

Townsville Race 5.

You know who.

Should jump at big odds again in a small field on a wet track, bottom weight.

At its best, it motors in the wet.

I'm donating $10 EW again.

Chris McIver's turn now! This must be last roll of the dice for Jabiru!

[OnSong]

5th I think. Not too far away from the placings but not good enough again.

[mighty_tiger_79]

I missed the race due to work commitments.

I think we really need to just watch it now, no $$$ invested.
Belongs at the picnics

[helicopterking]

5th I think. Not too far away from the placings but not good enough again.

Actually wasn't a bad run, was 3 deep the whole way.
Wet Tracker I reckon.

[Spargo]

I missed the race due to work commitments.

I think we really need to just watch it now, no $$$ invested.
Belongs at the knackery.

EFA.

[OnSong]

5th I think. Not too far away from the placings but not good enough again.

Actually wasn't a bad run, was 3 deep the whole way.
Wet Tracker I reckon.

Yeah listening it sounded like it lobbed there and boxed on. It's just not what this horse was though.

[LPH]

What a great day’s racing in stall tomorrow!
Last week my Star Stable had 4 runners – 1 winner Top Melbourne, 2 x 2nd & a 4th.
Sadly, I only backed one of them – Tarzino

So to the final decent Day’s racing in Melbourne before we switch to Sydney for the next month. Going to United tonight, so form done early…

Australian Cup - I backed Our Ivanhoe 2 weeks ago @ $13 All In, so happy with his shortening price & see no reason to think he can’t win. Based on his previous run (very unlucky), he should comfortably run in the Top 5 – reckon he can win.
I am wary of 2 other well priced runners: Happy Trails – proven WFA performer, but is he finished? He’s an 8 yr old now & he may have seen better days. At his best, he can win. But the question is; Is his best behind him?
The other ‘value runner’ is Almoonqith. 2nd up may well be good for him. He’s a Geelong Cup winner & the open spaces of the Flemington Straight, should suit him. His 2nd Up record is 75% win (3 from 4). Michael Walker would be very keen to do well after his long absence, too. I give him a real chance of Top 5. Latest PLACE price was $6, so happy to take that.

Newmarket Handicap – The racing pattern of the Top Weight is to his detriment tomorrow I think. He’ll have to lug 58kgs (only Shaftsbury Avenue & Black Caviar have carried that to win, whilst Hay List carried 58.5kgs). With his ‘come from behind’ racing pattern, I think he’s vulnerable.
All 3 x Waller Runners are definite winning hopes.
I can see The Quarterback getting a good run off the speed & he’s got 6kgs less than Chautauqua. If they ‘fly’ up front, then he might peel off the back of the ‘toppy’ with 100m to go. I’m gunna back him Eachway. His record @ the track & at the distance is very good & if they get some rain, that won’t worry him either.
At the price, I’m taking him. Box Trifecta: 1, 2, 6, 8, 10

I like Jesse Belle 3rd Up in the last race too. She hasn’t won 3rd up but has been placed, 2 of 3. I backed Whistle Baby 2 weeks ago when 2nd to Wawail, Jesse Belle was 4th & didn’t have a lot of luck. She takes on the boys here but her record @ both the track & distance is good. $5.50 is a little ‘skinny’ for me, I would settle for $6.50. She should be primed for this race (she’s 4 placings from 6 starts this track & distance) but the gate is a little concern. If I can get $2.50 the Place, I’ll load up on her I reckon. Hopefully she doesn’t use too much petrol early, getting a spot.

As I mentioned last week, Tommy Berry has an amazingly high win strike rate when riding for Chris Waller, 30+%. He has 2 x rides for Waller tomorrow, in Races 8 & 9. Both horses are very well priced. I’m going to back his Ajax Ride, Weary. If it was wet, he’d be 3/1 in this race. I’m not saying he’ll win the race (even though I will be backing him 1 x 4) but I think from the alley, he’ll get a good run.
Track record good, distance record good, Track/Distance record good. My worry is the ‘ground’, but that said; most of the ‘fancied runners’ have drawn wide, except Generalife & Rock Sturdy. Weary is not a fast starter, so I can see him being 3rd or 4th back, the fence. I expect 6, 9, 10, 11 to be in the 1st 5 runners. 6 & 11 might need to do some work to get there. If Berry can have him 6th or 7th the Rails, he’ll need a bit of luck but he could be in the finish. I think the $21 is over the odds, he should be more of a $12 to $15 price IMHO.

The Pago Pago traditionally has provided a late entry into the Slipper, next week. The winner of this race won’t win the Slipper.
Bjorn Baker is another Kiwi Trainer who, having moved to Sydney, has been ‘braining them’ over the past few years. He invariably trains good 2 yr olds. I like on-pace 2 yr olds, particularly @ Rosehill. I’ve backed No. 9 The Reverend Demon @ $21. & $5.50. The PLACE price is nice for an on-pacer. Hopefully, Avdulla gets to ‘cuddle’ him between the 5 furlongs & the 250m mark. If he does, he could account for these, although I am wary of Lionhearted, the Hayes runner. I think the ‘big’ stables already have their ‘1st stringers’ in the Slipper field, so @ the price, I like this Baker runner.

Enjoy the Day Boys – Happy Punting!
Hopefully Our Ivanhoe can win for both my Wallet & my Star Stable

[JK]

I backed Fenway for the Aust Cup a while back at $51, now into about $8 so my advice for all punters, is put a line through it!! Anytime I get a good futures price and a runner at excellent value it never does anything.

Sportsbet are offering $3.50 on a promo for Chautaqua today - Probably my favourite horse, but rarely back it due to price. Should be a good race to watch.

[mighty_tiger_79]

im not so sure about Chataqua tomorrow big weight, lack of real pace...

im super keen on race 8 - 13 Alaskan Rose at $14
gun draw, fair jock, gets back, will absolutely be flying home on the rails. down in grade, down in weight.....

ive worked out a few quaddies and will post them tomorrow after scratchings etc

[Spargo]

I backed Fenway for the Aust Cup a while back at $51, now into about $8 so my advice for all punters, is put a line through it!! Anytime I get a good futures price and a runner at excellent value it never does anything.

Sportsbet are offering $3.50 on a promo for Chautaqua today - Probably my favourite horse, but rarely back it due to price. Should be a good race to watch.

I'm on Fenway @ $41 so you're not alone JK - just a bit of extra weight

[JK]

I backed Fenway for the Aust Cup a while back at $51, now into about $8 so my advice for all punters, is put a line through it!! Anytime I get a good futures price and a runner at excellent value it never does anything.

Sportsbet are offering $3.50 on a promo for Chautaqua today - Probably my favourite horse, but rarely back it due to price. Should be a good race to watch.

I'm on Fenway @ $41 so you're not alone JK - just a bit of extra weight

Hope you clean up mate!!

[JK]

im not so sure about Chataqua tomorrow big weight, lack of real pace...

im super keen on race 8 - 13 Alaskan Rose at $14
gun draw, fair jock, gets back, will absolutely be flying home on the rails. down in grade, down in weight.....

ive worked out a few quaddies and will post them tomorrow after scratchings etc

Yeah I agree they are for concerns .. Still think it's the best horse in the race, find out tonorrow I suppose - decent field.

[Stumps]

I backed Fenway for the Aust Cup a while back at $51, now into about $8 so my advice for all punters, is put a line through it!! Anytime I get a good futures price and a runner at excellent value it never does anything.

Sportsbet are offering $3.50 on a promo for Chautaqua today - Probably my favourite horse, but rarely back it due to price. Should be a good race to watch.

I'm on Fenway @ $41 so you're not alone JK - just a bit of extra weight

Hope you clean up mate!!

I'm on Fenway at $9
Big chance

[gadj1976]

12/Mar/16 10:01 AM SR08 AJAX STAKES - PUCCINI WIN/PLC
12/Mar/16 9:58 AM 12/03 SR 7 WP 11
12/Mar/16 9:54 AM 12/03 SR 6 WP 3
12/Mar/16 9:52 AM SB 818719 SR05 MAURICE MCCARTEN STAKES - CRAFTINESS Win
12/Mar/16 9:49 AM 12/03 MR 8 WP 11
12/Mar/16 9:14 AM SB 818645 MR07 AUSTRALIAN CUP - SUAVITO Win
12/Mar/16 9:14 AM 12/03 MR 6 TF RBK 6/1 7 8 10 11 15%
12/Mar/16 9:12 AM SB 818610 MR05 KEWNEY STAKES - DON'T DOUBT MAMMA Win
12/Mar/16 9:11 AM 12/03 MR 3 WP 13
12/Mar/16 9:11 AM 12/03 MR 2 TF BX 2 3 8 100%
12/Mar/16 9:10 AM SB 818570 MR01 TBV THOROUGHBRED BREEDE - THYME FOR ROSES Win/PLC
12/Mar/16 9:09 AM 12/03 MR 4 TF RBK 2/5 9 10 50%
12/Mar/16 9:08 AM SB 818599 MR04 BLAMEY STAKES - STRATUM STAR Win

[stampy]

reckon the hayes camp might have a big day at morphettville

[mighty_tiger_79]

Flemington quaddies

8/5,8/3,10,11,13/6,8

1,2,6,8/1,2,5,6,8,9,10,11/1,2,10,11,13/1,2,4,6,8

the last leg, is the hardest I thought, devoid of any depth and real talent

[mighty_tiger_79]

Nice start to my cheap quaddie