23/09/2017 (Time Posted: 6:35am Friday, 22/09/17)
Not really getting into too much this far out – still few weeks yet until we get into ‘full swing’ but is always nice to get a little in the ‘kick’ if we can, just so we can load up later.
Humidor’s run last week @ Flemington sees him come into Fav for the Caulfield Cup & shorten for the Melbourne Cup. I caught him last week & I suspect the Weir Camp didn’t miss him either, considering the smile on the Trainer’s face after the race! I still think
Hartnell is weighted well for the CC & I’m pretty sure Godolphin will avoid facing the ‘Great Mare’ @ The Valley.
I reckon Humidor’s pattern of racing makes Flemington a much brighter prospect than Caulfield, so I can’t have him in CC at the current price.
Almandin’s run was unbelievable over 2500m, 2nd Up! WOW! He looks well on track to repeat last year’s result but the weight is still an issue over 2 Miles IMHO. But you couldn’t help but love the run last week with 61kgs, amazing!
My son & I are travelling to Europe in Jan, so unfortunately I can’t justify a trip to Melbourne to see
Winx go for the 3-peat (or The Boxing Day Test Match, for that matter)
Personally, I rate her better than Black Caviar – I just think WFA Middle Distance horses are better than Sprinters, but I might just be biased in my view.
Anyway, to this week:
SR 7 (Rosehill) –
The Golden RoseDifficult race to access IMHO. I don’t want the favourite, way too short @ Evens, for mine. I always like Snowden runners in 5 to 7 Furlong races, so Pariah has to be a chance – but the gate is a worry. No 9
Dracarys should get a very soft run on the Rail & should sit 2 or 3 back the fence – concede it a PLACE chance @ $4.60 fixed but reckon the Tote on the day will be higher ($5 would be very nice).
I’m backing Waterhouse’s
Gold Standard (No. 4), 2 Units by 5. The run in the Stan Fox, on pace, suggests this Colt can sit handy (perhaps 1-1) from Gate 10. I’m relying on him jumping well from Gate 10, but if he does, Berry is a great rider of on-pace runners & you know Gai will have him ‘rock hard fit’. At the $15 Power Play, too juicy not to take – in fact I took it Thursday Night.
Trying a new Trifecta Strategy this Year (apart from the Big Cups).
3 Chosen Horses (who I think can Quinella the race) + Field
(AB/AB/Field; AC/AC/Field; BC/BC/Field)
$12 each for 50% (2 x 1 x 12) Total $36
Trifectas: 2,3/2,3/Field; 2,4/2,4/Field; 3,4/3,4/Field
MR 7 (Caulfield) –
The NaturalismWeir (3) & Hayes (4) runners dominate the Field here, which I hate. A lot like Almandin’s race last week with the amount of Lloyd Williams runners. It makes predicting leaders & ‘position in running’ difficult to assess, particularly in a Stayers race. That said, I can see 1, 6, 7, 11 & 13 going forward. The pace up front will tell a lot in terms of the last 400m coming around the turn. If 6 & 1 go hard up front, that brings the ‘back markers’ into the race. That said, I want to be on a mid-field runner, 1 or 2 horses off the fence.
Big Duke drops 2.5 kgs on his previous run @ The Valley. He ran home well there over the Mile. The extra 2 furlongs suits, as does the longer straight of Caulfield. He’s 3rd up & at the Each way quote of $9 & $3, he’ll do me, 3 x 7 units. Tough Race, lots of variables.
Also, watch the Market (late) on the Mick Kent runner
Abbey Marie (10) – stable likes backing their horses when they think they can win. He usually gives an interview too before the race, so if you are watching Racing.com, keep your eyes & ears open
That’s all for this week Lads, but I will finish with the following:
Over the past 6 weeks or so, I have been looking at the results & comparing them to the Tips given from various ‘Pundits’. In Adelaide, Nadia Horne is very successful with her 4 selections per race, particularly with box Trifectas & Pick 4s.
Joel Marshall too, appears to get his 4 selections into the money in Sydney more often than not. We could do worse than to follow their Tips at these Venues over the next few months if ‘Multiples’ are your thing.
Happy Punting!
Posted: Sun Sep 17, 2017 2:45 am
