14/10/2017 (Time Posted: 9:26pm Thursday, 12/10/17)
Last week was a shocker – only collect was the Place bet on
Sully – on that run, I reckon he could win The Derby. He was the one finishing the race off the best. Currently $10 on Sportbet, $11 @ Ladbrokes – I’d want $13 & $4 to back it E/Way, but he’s my pick @ the minute for that race.
Anyway, we’ve got a big card this week to deal with first.
I’ll start with Sydney, because JK asked about The Everest.
Randwick – SR 8
The EverestCan’t say I agree with the idea of a $10 million race for Sprinters in Australia but NSW seem to think that this will take some of the attention from The Melbourne Cup – yeah, right! Anyway, it’s another race to bet on at least.
Ball of Muscle leads (as always), with
Houtzen outside it & Vega Magic coming over from an outside gate. Can’t fault
She Will Reign – that run @ Mooney Valley was top class IMHO. The question is: Is
Chautauqua the same horse he was? The pace on up front will suit him, but I wonder if he’s nearly had enough @ this level, now he’s a 7 yr old. He certainly hasn’t ‘set the world on fire’ this time in - $5.50 & $2.15???
Not for me – concede a Place Bet but don’t think he can win.
Vega Magic is a winner – must go in to all Multiples, but $4.80 is short enough.
I can’t believe that
Fell Swoop is $61 & $16 the Place! I will have a
PLACE ticket on it @ the price – has been placed @ the past 2 TJ Smith’s, beaten by Chautauqua & English in April.
I will be backing
English in the race,
2 x 5 units @ the Powered $13.
Interesting Race, but not a $10 million one in my book.
Caulfield – MR 8
The Caulfield GuineasInterestingly Hayes runs the filly
Catchy here & not in the Thousand. That suggests they have a huge opinion of her & based on her previous runs, no surprise they go for the ‘bigger purse’ running in this race. That said, I have always believed that a ‘good colt will beat a good filly, more often than not’ & @ $4.50, I’m not prepared to back her.
I think the value runner is
Salsamor – the Stutt run @ Mooney Valley was very good & at
$6 the Place, I’ll have a bit on him running into ‘the money’. This race is traditionally known as the ‘Sires Race’ – so any Godolphin runner must be taken seriously.
Sanctioned has ‘drawn the carpark’ so I expect it to go back.
Kementari has to be given a chance on its previous run in the Prelude but @ $5.50 its too short for mine.
McEvoy said earlier in the week that if
Royal Symphony runs well here, then he’ll go to the Cox Plate to take on Winx, with 49kgs. He’d want to run really well here to have any sort of show against ‘The Champ’.
The horse that gets the ‘gun run’ in the race is
Gold Standard IMHO
. His run in the Stan Fox (1500m) was very good & I backed him in The Golden Rose, just missing out on 3rd Money. Difficult race, think I’ll stick with Gai,
2 x 5 Units with a
3 Units Place bet on
Salsamor.
Trifectas: 6,7/ 6,7/ Field, 6,16/ 6,16/ Field, 7,16/ 7,16/ Field (2 x 2 x 14)
Caulfield – MR 9
The Toorak HandicapSo the ‘best loser’ in the Country goes around again.
Tom Melbourne seems to find trouble EVERY race he’s in & from gate 15 here, he’s likely to do it again in this race!
Personally, I am a fan of the horse & it would not surprise me to see him win this race. The mile looks perfect for him but he has become a very costly proposition. I’ll put him in my Trifectas but that’s all.
I want to back the Mare here,
I Am A Star.
She has a great record @ the distance. The wide gate is a concern but I’m hoping Melham can get her 1 off & a trail behind something like Jacquinot Bay or even Tom Melbourne. At the
$17 Boosted on Ladbrokes & $4.25, she’ll do me
1 x 4 Units. Concede a winning chance to Egg Tart.
Trifectas: 4, 6/ 4,6/ Field, 4,9/ 4,9/ Field, 6,9/ 6,9/ Field
Caulfield – MR 7
The Caulfield StakesI have to be honest, I thought
Hartnell was going to the Caulfield Cup but that appears unlikely – ATM he’s $21 for that race but I heard a whisper that he’s not going there next week. To be fair, he’s probably a better Mile & a Quarter horse than the extra 2 furlongs, so I understand the thinking. That said, he ran 3rd in The Melbourne Cup last year, so perhaps Cummings has that race in mind? BUT he does have to carry 57.5kgs in that race (58kgs in CC if he runs), so I can’t back him in the ‘Big One’ – Caulfield Cup, different story.
He’s clearly the one to beat in THIS race but $3.30, not for me. Good to see the International Runners going around here before the Cups – that’s how it should be IMHO, I’ve been ‘banging on’ about that for years now! I’m prepared to back the Aiden O’Brien runner
The Taj Mahal @ the price. Oliver in the seat suggests it’s a good horse & this is clearly a ‘lead up’ run for the Cox Plate. We won’t get this sort of price again this Spring, so
3 x 7 Units is a good bet @ the
Powered $18 & $4.20 the Place.
What a great day’s racing in store.
Good Luck Lads, enjoy the day on the Punt!
Posted: Wed Oct 11, 2017 7:24 pm