07/11/2017 – Cup Day Preview (Posted: 9:35pm Monday 06/11/2017)
So, we come to another Cup Day. I want to remind you all (ironic, considering my previous Cup Preview Post
) that the Melbourne Cup is a horse race to bet on – there are plenty of others & getting a winner in the Cup is no different to getting a winner in the 1st or the Last race of the day – the Bookies pay out just the same.
Flemington Race 9 – Security Sprint
Backed a good price winner last year in this race & I reckon there’s another well priced runner in this year’s version. The straight races @ Flemington during the Carnival, often throw up some value runners into the Placings. I expect the big field here to split into 2 Groups, 1 down the inside & the other down the outside rail. I expect 3, 7, 16, 15, 1, 8 & 2 to go to the outside rail & I expect 3 & 7 to lead that bunch. I like the top weight
Kuro to get a cosy run behind them & get the last ‘crack’ at them. If the outside is the ‘fast lane’, I reckon he can run a place, if not win the race. Happy to gamble on him
1 x 4 Units at the Enhanced $21 & $5.50 the Place.
No trifecta bet due to the ‘split packs’.
Flemington Race 3 – The Lavazza Short Black
Interesting race this one.
Dollar for Dollar is unbeaten at the 7 furlongs from 3 starts, but has had 3 starts at Headquarters for no placings & that is a worry for mine. The pace of the race will be interesting & I’m thinking it will be willing early, especially from 7, 15 & 9 trying to get across the front of the field.
Dollar for Dollar should push up from the inside gate too, so I’m looking for something getting a nice easy run in behind them around the corner & getting out & winding up from the 300m mark. That horse might be
Land of Plenty but he’s a little too short for me at 5/1 having only been placed 5 of 13 starts. I want to back
Atlantic City because I think he maps well. 3rd Up, drops 3 kgs on his previous run & if you go back over his form, he has 2 very good runs @ Sandown (long straight), including a win over
Bradman who is no slouch. At the enhanced $34 & the $7.75 the Place on Ladbrokes is very agreeable. I will take him
1 x 4 Units. Think he’ll run home strongly.
Trifectas: 3, 8/ 3, 8/ Field; 3, 9/ 3, 9/ Field; 8,9/ 8,9/ Field
Flemington Race 10 – The Hong Kong Jockey Club
Open race to end the day. No doubt many will either be ‘topping up’ after a good day on the Punt, or trying to ‘escape’ with a collect on the last. The proposition means that pre-post betting is not warranted IMHO, as you are likely to get a better price via the TOTE if (like me) you don’t like backing favourites. Looking at the form of these Mares, they are all in pretty good form, with 11 of the 14 runners, placing last start! I reckon No. 9
Quilista might be able to ‘stack them up’ here & with Zahra riding in career best form, she might give a great site from the front. This former Perth galloper appears to run best when she can dictate from the front. If I can get $11 & $3.50 I can entertain a bet on her. Dangers are 6 & 13.
Miss Gunpowder especially, is a real chance in this race IMHO
, 3rd up. So I will have a ‘saver’ on her.
Quillista 2 x 5 Units,
Miss Gunpowder 3 x 5 Units.
Trifectas: 6, 9/ 6, 9/ Field; 6, 13/ 6, 13/ Field; 9, 13/ 9, 13/ Field
There you go Lads, another Cup Day to enjoy!
Good Luck, hopefully we have enough left for The Oaks on Thursday
Happy Punting & Enjoy the Day!