Ind v Aus

[another grub]

Bangers gave them a scare.... good to see..... $2.25 NZ...what a gift......

[Bob Loblaw]

NZ Win by 3 wkts. NZ 7/317.
Pretty tedious game by the look of things with the Run Rate only a tick over 2 RPO for the whole game.
Vettori had a Fair game taking 5/59 (36 overs) and 4/74 (42 overs) with the ball and making 55* no. and 76 with the bat. Has there ever been a Better All Round performance in a Test match by an individual?

Daniel Vettori became the first player to score at least a half-century and take four wickets in two innings of a Test. He is only the third player, and the second captain, to score at least fifty in each innings and take eight or more wickets in a match.

http://content-aus.cricinfo.com/bdeshvnz/content/current/story/374910.html

[Johno37]

WHO WERE THE OTHER GUYS TO DO IT?

[Bob Loblaw]

WHO WERE THE OTHER GUYS TO DO IT?

GA Faulkner (SA) 1910 vs Eng 78,123 8/160
Mushtaq Mohammad (Pak) 1977 vs WI (Captain) 121, 56 8/97

http://stats.cricinfo.com/statsguru/engine/stats/index.html?class=1;filter=advanced;orderby=start;qualmin1=2;qualmin2=8;qualval1=fifty_plus;qualval2=wickets;template=results;type=allround;view=match

[Dutchy]

Dutchy'$ Test Betting
-9.57 Units

Nightmare...

OK onto the 3rd test, going to go with the Draw and hope the pitch stands up Day 1 and lay off when the draw shortens -

Aus/IND 3rd Test
BACK Draw
3 Units @ $3.00

Position -
Draw +6.0
IND -3.0
AUS -3.0

[Ecky]

As Mal and I have said before, I'm not convinced about your "back something and lay off when it shortens" philosophy. I think you may be too focussed on guaranteeing profits for individual matches, when you should be thinking about the best way to maximise your profit in the long term. With that philosophy, you would only lay off if you believed that the odds at the time of laying off were well in your favour, not just laying off for the sake of guaranteeing a short-term profit.

Just something to think about.

[Dutchy]

Its more trading than looking for value Ecky, unfortuantely the first 2 tests havent seen the big swings that other tests usually deliver. I had opportunites in both games to make some nice profits by trading but didnt and regret it now and have the loss of over 9 units...plan to get that back now

In both tests to date the draw has been into $1.70 at some stage during the 1st day, hope the same happens here

[Sheik Yerbouti]

As mentioned on another board, backed the Indians at $2.55 with IAS.

[Dutchy]

OK Draw came into $2.20 last night so I layed off my $3.00 to give me a profit across the board....will see how today pans out, I hope the draw comes into odds on and Ill lay it....

Aus/IND 3rd Test
LAY Draw
4 Units @ $2.20

BACK IND
0.45 Units @ $2.04

BACK Draw
0.40 Units @ $2.26


Position -
Draw +1.25
IND +1.06
AUS +0.15

Get what Im doing Ecky? The Draw at $3.00 was great value when the other tests it opened around $2.30, now it is too short so Ive layed it for a guaranteed profit

[Ecky]

Get what Im doing Ecky? The Draw at $3.00 was great value when the other tests it opened around $2.30, now it is too short so Ive layed it for a guaranteed profit

Yes, I know what you are doing.
Fair enough, you saw value in the draw at $3 and backed it, well done.

But why lay off when it shortens to $2.20, unless you really think that now it is too short. But you don't indicate this, you just lay off "to guarantee a profit".
But the question is - to guarantee a profit over what time period? You are still facing a loss over the whole series, while if you didn't lay off and the draw got up (which there is a fair chance would now happen) you would be within striking distance of getting back in the black over the whole series. But by laying off, you are back to a situation where you will still be at least 8 units down, not much of an improvement on where you were, and you have missed the chance to make some decent money from being smart and seeing the $3 draw value - laying off has just diluted your potential big winnings there. Now you may have to wait a while before you get such value again.

Can you see where I am coming from? Surely the aim of a smart punter is to make money in the long term?

[Mr_Willy]

Get what Im doing Ecky? The Draw at $3.00 was great value when the other tests it opened around $2.30, now it is too short so Ive layed it for a guaranteed profit

Yes, I know what you are doing.
Fair enough, you saw value in the draw at $3 and backed it, well done.

But why lay off when it shortens to $2.20, unless you really think that now it is too short. But you don't indicate this, you just lay off "to guarantee a profit".
But the question is - to guarantee a profit over what time period? You are still facing a loss over the whole series, while if you didn't lay off and the draw got up (which there is a fair chance would now happen) you would be within striking distance of getting back in the black over the whole series. But by laying off, you are back to a situation where you will still be at least 8 units down, not much of an improvement on where you were, and you have missed the chance to make some decent money from being smart and seeing the $3 draw value - laying off has just diluted your potential big winnings there. Now you may have to wait a while before you get such value again.

Can you see where I am coming from? Surely the aim of a smart punter is to make money in the long term?

I would've thought the aim of ANY punter is to MAKE MONEY. Dutchy made a mistake in the first test by not laying the draw when he should've otherwise he would still be in the green.... I would've thought anything that can guaruntee a profit should be applauded!!!

[Dutchy]

agree, but trading is that, if I wanted to back the draw and leave it (not lay off) I would have only bet 0.5 to 1.0 Unit @ $3.00.....I bet 3 units in this case with the specific view to lay off, now if the draw occurs I will win about what I would have won with a smaller bet but with no risk of losing any $

Yes Im losing over 9 units however I dont chase losses (No. 1 rule of gambling for profit) take each opportunity as it arises, the 9 unit loss is somewhat mitigated by being up over 5 units in Domestic Cricket...

[Ecky]

Yes Im losing over 9 units however I dont chase losses (No. 1 rule of gambling for profit) take each opportunity as it arises

Exactly - another way of saying this same rule is to not consider how much you have won or lost on previous bets when making your next bet (as long as you are betting within your budgets and can afford it)

Which supports my argument for not laying off just because the layoff bet guarantees a short-term profit.
Every bet should follow the same principle - if the bet is value, put it on. If you don't believe it is value, don't bet, no matter how it effects your short-term profits/losses on an event.

[Ecky]

PS Bookmakers love punters who lay off - some of their easiest money is made by offering odds that are well below what they should, but punters take them anyway to guarantee these short term profit situations.

[Dutchy]

PS Bookmakers love punters who lay off - some of their easiest money is made by offering odds that are well below what they should, but punters take them anyway to guarantee these short term profit situations.

lucky Im not betting with a Bookie then...


tell me ecky you have a NRL/AFL Premiership double going at 100/1 and you have put $10,000 on it so stand to win nearly $1m....the AFL bet comes in and you are waiting for the NRL final coming this weekend, your team is paying $2- to with the premiership, with your theory I presume you wouldnt lay off for a guaranteed $500k?

[Ecky]

tell me ecky you have a NRL/AFL Premiership double going at 100/1 and you have put $10,000 on it so stand to win nearly $1m....the AFL bet comes in and you are waiting for the NRL final coming this weekend, your team is paying $2- to with the premiership, with your theory I presume you wouldnt lay off for a guaranteed $500k?

Personally I would because I am only a small gambler and those sort of figures are way above anything I bet, and a situation like that would come around only once a lifetime (if that), so even if "on average" I would do better by not laying off, that is meaningless as I am never going to have enough situations like that to form a stable "average". I have laid off for figures far less than this, just because I am not prepared to risk losing large amounts.

However, if I am a Kerry Packer type who bets $500K every day, and I was looking to maximise the amount I was winning over a year (say) and losing $500K would not influence my day to day life, then I would not lay off, as I would know that in the long run my profit would be larger if I don't lay off such bets.

Just as if the amounts involved are well below the limits I bet with (like I presume your bets are for you) then I wouldn't lay off.

[Dutchy]

Alright India have survived the mornings play but at no great speed, I can see them batting almost all day today and that leaves them 3 days to get the Aussies out twice and have a bat, I reckon both sides would be content with a draw from here, Aussies definately dont want to lose it.

Im attacking the draw again -

Aus/IND 3rd Test
BACK Draw
5 Units @ $1.87

Position -
Draw +5.60
IND -3.93
AUS -4.85

[Ecky]

Alright India have survived the mornings play but at no great speed, I can see them batting almost all day today and that leaves them 3 days to get the Aussies out twice and have a bat, I reckon both sides would be content with a draw from here, Aussies definately dont want to lose it.

Im attacking the draw again -

Aus/IND 3rd Test
BACK Draw
5 Units @ $1.87

Position -
Draw +5.60
IND -3.93
AUS -4.85

While if you had simply stuck to your original draw bet without laying off at all, you would now be in a better situation for all 3 outcomes (+6, -3, -3)

I know it isn't fair to make "I told you so posts" but I can't help this one

[Dutchy]

Yes I knew I was going to cop it from you for this...

What I did do is take the risk out of India collapsing this morning, which would have thrown the Draw back out to $3+

[Ecky]

Yes I knew I was going to cop it from you for this...

What I did do is take the risk out of India collapsing this morning, which would have thrown the Draw back out to $3+

I know - hindsight is a wonderful thing, and you are just unlucky that things fell the way they did to make it appear I was right.