Melbourne Cup 2010 Tips & Discussion

[Bum Crack]

My Pick 4 is:-

So You Think
Holberg
Zavite
Malucky Day

[JK]

does anyone know any sites where sweeps are done? i am trying to find something to make it a bit easier to do in the office (for around 90 people).

Adelaidenow has one going mate:

http://www.adelaidenow.com.au/sport/sup ... 5945851784

[Mr_Willy]

Righteo... For first 4's and trifecta's.... Who can we leave out?
I've looked through the form and made cases for almost all of the runners, but who can't run in the first 4?

- Campanologist
- Precedence
- Illustrious Blue (Although I was half keen on him a few weeks ago)
- Buccelati
- Red Ruler
- Tokai Trick (Japanese horses go OK in the Cup though)
- Harris Tweed (I know it loves the wet, but surely it's just not good enough?)
- Once Were Wild


Anyone disagree, or got another one?

I know you'll all say Master O'Reilly and Zavite, but I think they're value chances of running top 4.

Loving this dodgy... I'd like to get the field down to 10 runners.... IMHO you should take two tickets... one with So You Think one out to win, the other without it in there... Either it gets the distance and wins.... or doesn't get the trip and fails miserably....

I have knocked out 6, but not sure who they are.... hopefully a few different to you... I can't leave out Master O either..

[Swamp Donkey]

Final Field:

1 Shocking M Rodd
2 Campanologist K McEvoy
3 So You Think S Arnold
4 Zipping A Hall
5 Illustrious Blue G Boss
6 Mr Medici D Beadman
7 Shoot Out C Brown
8 Americain G Mosse
9 Tokai Trick K Fujito
10 Buccellati S King
11 Descarado N Rawailler
12 Harris Tweed B Rawiller
13 Managhar Damien Oliver
14 Master O’Reilly Vlad Duric
15 Moncao Consul Carig Williams
16 Profound Beauty Pat Smullen
17 Zavite Michael Walker
18 Bauer Chris Munce
19 Holberg FrankieDettori
20 Precedence Blake Shinn
21 Red Ruler Mark Du Plessis
22 Linton Brett Prebble
23 Once Were Wild Jim Cassidy
24 Maluckyday Craig Newitt


--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Interestingly or embarrassingly... 18 of the 23 runners are from overseas!

[BluesBrother08]

Righteo... For first 4's and trifecta's.... Who can we leave out?
I've looked through the form and made cases for almost all of the runners, but who can't run in the first 4?

- Campanologist
- Precedence
- Illustrious Blue (Although I was half keen on him a few weeks ago)
- Buccelati
- Red Ruler
- Tokai Trick (Japanese horses go OK in the Cup though)
- Harris Tweed (I know it loves the wet, but surely it's just not good enough?)
- Once Were Wild


Anyone disagree, or got another one?

I know you'll all say Master O'Reilly and Zavite, but I think they're value chances of running top 4.

Loving this dodgy... I'd like to get the field down to 10 runners.... IMHO you should take two tickets... one with So You Think one out to win, the other without it in there... Either it gets the distance and wins.... or doesn't get the trip and fails miserably....

I have knocked out 6, but not sure who they are.... hopefully a few different to you... I can't leave out Master O either..

Not sure I would be leaving Harris Tweed or Precedence out.

[JK]

From the (limited number of) times Ive seen it run, Harris Tweed seems a bit one paced .. Should get the journey alright, but if some of the more dynamic stayers are with it in the straight I'd hold fears for it sneaking in for a drum.

Lol now after saying all that it probably wins

[mighty_tiger_79]

the thing with Harris Tweed is it is going to love the heavy track, the wetter the better

the heavier the track the less a horse will be able to sprint away from them

[Mr_Willy]

Just taken up Sportingbet's Happy Hour Offer of Maluckyday running a place at $6.... Considering they have it at $7.50 to win the race (and its under $10 almost everywhere).... $6 a place is a great price...

[mighty_tiger_79]

good price that

thanks for the heads up

[Mr_Willy]

good price that

thanks for the heads up

Pity its a max bet of $50....

[mighty_tiger_79]

good price that

thanks for the heads up

Pity its a max bet of $50....

I only put $15 on it.

I wanna try and nail the first 4's and tri's

hopefully apart from americain and maybe Manighar the other internationals run near last

[Dutchy]

Just taken up Sportingbet's Happy Hour Offer of Maluckyday running a place at $6.... Considering they have it at $7.50 to win the race (and its under $10 almost everywhere).... $6 a place is a great price...

I took a slice of it but am going to LAY on BF for $3.70 and lock in a $20 profit before the race is run

[CK]

From the (limited number of) times Ive seen it run, Harris Tweed seems a bit one paced .. Should get the journey alright, but if some of the more dynamic stayers are with it in the straight I'd hold fears for it sneaking in for a drum.

Lol now after saying all that it probably wins

Worked home well for 5th in last year's Melbourne Cup, as well as 3rd in this year's Sydney Cup. Looked half a run short in the Caulfield Cup when he loomed right up at the 300m but just outstayed. Looks very nice each way chance with the sting out of the ground.

[mighty_tiger_79]

from IASBET

2010 Melbourne Cup Day
IASbet.com expert racing analyst, Gerard Twomey previews the main chances in the 2010 Melbourne Cup.

The 2010 Melbourne Cup looks to be the strongest in years. Superstar So You Think is beautifully weighted on 56kg having won four Group Ones since weights released. The emerging young stayers in Linton and Maluckyday look to have beaten the handicapper and will be very strong at the end. Of the internationals, there is not much between Americain, Manighar and Holberg. Shocking has definitely paid the price for winning last year and with the 6kg weight rise he faces a massive task to win from the outside alley.

So You Think
So You Think won four Group Ones since weight released and is very well in with 56kg. He's the star of Australian racing so nothing would surprise.

Americain
Americain dropped in weight from a good Geelong cup. He should get a good run and looks a winning chance.

Descarado
Caulfield Cup winner Descarado has been penalised 1.5kg for that win. He should get the run of the race from barrier 1 with Nash Rawiller on top.

Manighar
Manighar is a lightly raced improver with form through Americain and Holberg. Manighar has a definite chance if he can overcome the wide alley.

Holberg
Holberg is a lightly traced improver, specifically targeted for this race and has good form around Manighar and Americain. Holberg looks to be Goldolphin's best chance to finally claim the holy grail. Holberg is a definite winning chance.

Precedence
The Zabeel stayer is racing consistently and has been penalised twice in this campaign He is weighted up to his best and can go a bit keen and there are some doubts about him running a strong 3200.

Linton
Linton has not given the best of rides in the fast run Lexus. With a good jockey change to Brett Prebble, he appears to have beaten the handicapper and is a definite chance on the quick back up.

Once Were Wild
Once Were Wild found his form in the fast run Lexus, she looks the leader and will give a great sight if she's taken no harm from Saturdays run.

Maluckyday
Emerging young Zabeel stayer found the line very strongly in the Lexus and will be the testing material if the favourite fails to stay. This year's Shocking?

[mighty_tiger_79]

Melbourne Best Bets - Simon Marshall BET NOW

FLEMINGTON TUESDAY

MELBOURNE CUP, 3200m, 12.00pm WST
RACE 7: NO 20 - PRECEDENCE
This year we’re celebrating the running of the 150th Melbourne Cup. It has been a race for champions and for Australia. It is fast becoming the world’s race, known as the world’s greatest staying race with prize money of six million on offer. I would think that with nine internationals contesting the race this year, it will be the toughest year to pick a winner. In saying that, I have to stick with the man that has dominated the Cup throughout history, Bart Cummings, going for his 13th Melbourne Cup Melbourne Cup. Bart is the king and we are hoping that the king can keep the cup here in Australia.

My selections for this year’s Cup are: Number 20- PRECEDENCE; Number 3 – SO YOU THINK; Number 11- DESCARADO; Number 24- MALUCKYDAY. The best of the internationals will be Number 8- AMERICAIN who was very impressive winning the Geelong Cup. For those who fancy the internationals, Number 13- MANIGHAR and you should also throw Number 19- HOLBERG in to your multiples.

FLEXI QUARTET:
No: 1, 2, 3, 8, 11, 13, 20, 24
Allways
(Cost $100 for 5.95%)


SIMON’S BONUS TIPS

THE LAVAZZA LONG BLACK HANDICAP, 2800m, 8.45am WST
RACE 3: NO 13 - IRAZU
IRAZU was very unlucky when narrowly defeated in the Moe Cup two starts ago when he could not gain a run in the straight finishing third and only beaten by a short head. Last start in the Moonee Valley Cup was another great performance when again he didn’t have any luck finishing the race off very nicely to finish fourth behind Precedence. He will get his chance to be in the winner’s circle tomorrow.

HERALD SUN STAKES, 1400m, 9.30am WST
RACE 4: NO 8 – FLYING TESSIE
She ran super first up, just peaking on her run and being narrowly beaten by Varenna Miss. FLYING TESSIE has won at this carnival over 1400 meters last year. She is the fresh horse on the scene and has champion jockey Nash Rawiller on board.

SCHWEPPES TONIC 1000, 1000m, 10.15am WST
RACE 5: NO 8 - JOHNNYDRAMA
The son of Lonhro, he is very fast and was gallant in defeat last start when only being beaten by 1.4 lengths. This is a similar field that he meets, drawn perfect in barrier one, first time down the straight he is sure to give a good sight and be tough to beat.


Perth Preview - Greg Hooper BET NOW

ASCOT TUESDAY

RACE 1 NO 5 TRULY SPECIAL.
Up and coming staying Jeune mare who looks ideally placed to make it three wins in a row. In her second start she improved drastically on her debut effort and stormed home in the straight to win over 1400m. She then went straight to 2000m and despite hanging badly around the turn, she donkey licked her opponents, winning hard held for Paul Harvey by 2 lengths at Pinjarra. This looks a very weak staying race and Paul Harvey should be able to simply steer this mare home and get punters off to a winning start to the day.

RACE 4 NO 4 DANCIN ON THE WIND.
Lightly raced 4 year old gelding who has had a super first campaign. He has raced five times and has had never finished further back than 3rd, including two wins. Two starts back he made his city debut after a couple of dominant wins at Northam. He drew wide and was forced to park three deep with no cover the entire circuit, it was a mammoth effort to battle on and run 3rd, beaten a length to One Cool Queen. He then went to the Country Cup at his next start and after drawing another wide alley, they elected to ride him cold and he steamed home from the tail to narrowly go down to the very smart Brookesmebaby. He has drawn beautifully in barrier 2 tomorrow and he should be able to sit the first four in running and dominate this race.

RACE 5 NO 1 VALOURA.
4 year old Exceed and Excel mare who resumes from a spell for trainer Daniel Morton. When last in work she made a auspicious debut back in March of this year, when she tramped wide the entire race and still had the audacity to pick up late and post a dead heat win with the smart, Peach Tree. At her next start she again had no luck in running, racing wide for the circuit and battling on hard to be beaten 3 lengths to Our Old Fella. In her 3rd and final start she settled on the fence and hit the line hard in a Saturday grade 3 year old event, going down a half length to Romida. She resumed in a barrier trial on 4 October, where she travelled just behind the speed and went to the line under a strangle hold for Campbell McCallum. Campbell takes the ride tomorrow and from barrier 2 she should box seat in the run behind Agribiz and Answers Are and prove too classy for these fillies and mares first up.

Best Bets BET NOW

BEST BET: Race 1 No 5 Truly Special

BEST EACH-WAY: Race 9 No 12 Lo Wu

FLEXI TRIFECTA: Race 7 No 2, 3, 4, 6, 10
(Cost $30 for 50%) (Allways)

FLEXI QUARTET: Race 8 No 3, 6, 12
(Cost $30 for 41%) No 3, 6, 12
No 1, 3, 6, 7, 11, 12
No 1, 3, 6, 7, 11, 12

FLEXI QUADDIE: Race 6 No 1, 2, 3, 4
(Cost $50 for 11%) Race 7 No 2, 3, 4, 6, 10
Race 8 No 3, 6, 12
Race 9 No 2, 4, 7, 8, 11, 12, 13

[mighty_tiger_79]

barts theory of horses needing at least 10km in its legs before cup day

1,3,7,11,17,20,24

are all close to the mark

[Dutchy]

Americain and Manighar over 3000m in France in August, really liked Manighar's run here, would have won over 3200m

[Felch]

I still reckon SYT will win, and win well.

My bets for the Cup-

Box trifecta, nos. 1,3,4,7,8,11,13,15,20 & 24. 11% of dividend if it gets up.
Box tri nos. 2,9,12,15,21. 17% of div if successful. (these numbers are birthdates, take them every year)
Also have a little on Zipping, Precedence and Monaco Consul e/w.

Good luck to everyone!

[A Mum]

My head hurts...
I should have just gone Eeanie Meanie Miney Mo

Okay - For the cup I went...

Each way: Harris Tweed
Quinella: 3, 11, 12, 13, 16
Trifecta: 3, 11, 12, 13, 16
Pick 4: 3, 11, 12, 13, 16

Goodluck everyone

[dodgingandweaving]

1. Shoot Out
2. Maluckyday
3. Americain
4. Zipping
5. Descarado
6. Profound Beauty
7. Mr Medici


Hoping SYT can't run the trip, but wouldn't be surprised if he did.

Worried about Manighar, Holberg, Master O.