SA Footy

It is now almost legendary how JJ pulled off the first to 25 points with the TAB
on the Geelong V Port Power game at the $3-35 for PP
I first tested the bet when CA got to first v CO and then later with RI v CO as well at similar odds

First to 25 points with logical thinking is a bet that CAN beat the TAB

The TAB is falling for the trap of putting up similar odds for first
to 25 points and the game result.

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SOME TEAMS SCORE AS HEAVILY IN THE FIRST QUARTERS AND OR HALFS AS EACH OTHER
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I will give 2 examples
ML have woeful starts early in the games in 2007
CA have some flying starts in the games in 2007

ML V CA this week

win odds

ML $1-28
CA $3-3O

And guess what, and is it purely coincidental ?
the TAB has put up first to 25 in all games this weekend except this game !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Is the TAB scared !!!! or waking up ?

Well Mal, my logic is that outsiders who have almost NO hope in winning the match are still more than capable than matching the higher fancied sides early in a game until their lack of fitness, skill and enthusiasm begin to fade so despite a team having little hope of winning, they are usually a reasonable chance of getting to 25 pts first. You are right Mal in saying that TabSportsbet have the 1st to 25pts odds similar to the win odds but i think you will find that in future the odds for 1st to 25 a lot closer together than they have done till now or they will pay the consequences.

Along similar lines but in a different code, are similar odds in ODI's in cricket for highest opening partnership. A less "name" opening pair can be over $3 at times with gilchrist/hayden for example being $1.40. Stumps has won his fair share of these on the roughies. the shorter the contest or betting period lasts the more likely the roughie is to get up.

I phoned the TAB up today to ask why there is no FIRST25
up on the Melbourne /Carlton game
The operator said they are not betting to FIRST25 on that game at all

Has the TAB learnt from thier mistakes ?

G
Now you can believe that FIRST25 is a punters winning reality.

Its $2.75 at Lasseters