AFL FINALS + RD 23 SANFL DISCUSSION

[mal]

These are MALODDS to be used as a guide only for discussion purposes

PP $1-55
WC $2-50

HW $2-60
AC $1-50

CO $2-15
SS $1-75

GE $1-25
KA $3-80

ST
NA

EG
GL

WA
PA

SA
NW

AFL FINALS
Thats it for me I dont bet seriously in finals as they are newer dimensions
I will have small interest bets if I see any value
Logically I really up the ante in minor round games between rounds 5 to 21

[jackpot jim]

I think the 1st 2 games may be a little closer together in the market with the last 2 about right.
I'm predicting the 4 faves to win but think there will be 2 upsets, just dont know which ones though.

[Dutchy]

If I can get anything around $1.80 Sydney will be a big bet for me, they will smash Collingwood

WCE will be another bet depending how the week goes for them

Everything is going to well for the Crows, dunno might stay out of that game

Roos could suprise

[Punk Rooster]

Collingwood have the wood on Sydney....

[Dutchy]

Collingwood have the wood on Sydney....

5-5 in last 10, might get $1.90...

[Dutchy]

TAB Odds

Port $1.72
WCE $2-00

Adelaide $1.68
Hawks $2.05

Sydney $1.68
Collingwood $2.05

Geelong $1.20
Roos $4.00

[Punk Rooster]

Collingwood have the wood on Sydney....

5-5 in last 10, might get $1.90...

You got $2.05

[mal]

Looks like all the SANFL bookies are on strike........

[mighty_tiger_79]

just took a GEELONG vfl/afl premiership double!!!!

just under $4

[bayman]

Looks like all the SANFL bookies are on strike........

obviously they read that they are 'giftbet' & are now waiting for johhny & co to open up first, perhaps those that have been gloating should have kept it shut although you could argue that more accounts were open because of these same words

[Punk Rooster]

Well done to Thornton Sportsbet, for having the decency to give us prices earlier than others.

Code: Select all

JT                      SB
2.20 STURT             2.30   
1.60 NORTH ADELAIDE    1.60
 
4.00 WEST ADELAIDE     4.75
1.20 PORT MAGPIES      1.18
 
2.80 SOUTH ADELAIDE    3.00
1.40 NORWOOD           1.37
 
1.50 WOOD-TORR         1.55
2.50 GLENELG           2.50

[bayman]

yes well done johnny again you are leading from the front

[Punk Rooster]

Port Power/Adelaide/Collingwood $75 @ $5.82
Assuming I get the 1st 2 legs up, will consider saving on Sydney (although I am confident on Collingwood)

[Punk Rooster]

$2 lines, 1-39's & 40+'s

Code: Select all

2.25 STURT           +4.5 2.50  6.00 7/9/07 7.40 PM 
1.60 NORTH ADELAIDE -12.5 2.20  4.00 ADELAIDE OVAL 
 
4.40 WEST ADELAIDE  +22.5 5.00 26.00 8/9/07 2.00 PM 
1.17 PORT MAGPIES   -30.5 2.20  2.50 BROADSPECTRUM 
 
3.20 SOUTH ADELAIDE +14.5 3.60 17.00 8/9/07 2.00 PM 
1.30 NORWOOD        -22.5 2.20  2.50 HICKINBOTHAM OVAL 
 
1.50 WOOD-TORR      -15.5 2.20  3.50 8/9/07 2.15 pm 
2.50 GLENELG         +7.5 2.80  7.00 WOODVILLE

[Dutchy]

First 3 favs at the line look OK....will be on North -12.5 tonight

[Punk Rooster]

will be on North -12.5 tonight

I think that's a good play too.
*edit*
I've taken North Adel $75 @ $2 -12.5 pts
North Adel (-12.5 pts)/Port Power (-7.5 pts) $75 @ $3.82

[Dutchy]

I reckon you will break even Punk....WCE for me!

[Punk Rooster]

I reckon you will break even Punk....WCE for me!

Fair enough, but I think Port are one of the better bets of the weekend.
An AMAZING stat will come out of this game- 1 of the GURUS will be wrong!

[Dutchy]

WCE - Going to favour the experience here, Port have been in great form granted but this is finals, it will be a long day for some of their rookies who would have played the game over in their head 20 times before they get to AAMI...WCE havent been bad either, winning 6 of their last 7 and only losing 1 game away from Subi in the 2nd half of the year....Port have relied on a heavy attack all year however finals are different, this wont be a shootout, this will be tough and physical and Port will struggle with the intensity...WCE at the line

Sydney - Only lost 2 games in their last 9 and had to love the way they played last week, a real attacking style to compliment their usual hardness around the ball, Collingwood have limped into the finals with a 5-5 record in the last 10...Swans to be too good here Win

Adelaide - this could be a blowout but the way the Crows play probably not, Hawks are young and inexperienced and have only beaten 1 Top 8 side in their last 13 games...Crows for me, but probably no bet

Geelong should win but pressure is a wonderful thing, strangely the Roos have the edge in finals experience....this could be a cracker, have to favour Geelong but........no bet or maybe a small sniff at the Roos

[Punk Rooster]

WCE - Going to favour the experience here, Port have been in great form granted but this is finals, it will be a long day for some of their rookies who would have played the game over in their head 20 times before they get to AAMI...WCE havent been bad either, winning 6 of their last 7 and only losing 1 game away from Subi in the 2nd half of the year....Port have relied on a heavy attack all year however finals are different, this wont be a shootout, this will be tough and physical and Port will struggle with the intensity...WCE at the line

Last 5
WCE 4-1 (beating 1 top 8 side, losing to a bottom 8 side)
Port 4-1 (beating 2 top 8 sides, losing to a top 8 side)

Yes, West Coast have won 4 of their last 5, but their wins haven't benn convincing- 8pts against Essendon @ home, doing a job against an improved Richmond side, beating the Saints in a scrappy encounter at Telstra (& the Roos there too), getting smashed by an average Freo unit (@ home). They also have key players absent with injury, & Dean Cox is under an injury cloud currently, against the best ruck combination in the AFL.
Port have beaten an in-form Hawthorn & Geelong, they are at home, & have every chance to cover West Coast.

Port lines & win

Sydney - Only lost 2 games in their last 9 and had to love the way they played last week, a real attacking style to compliment their usual hardness around the ball, Collingwood have limped into the finals with a 5-5 record in the last 10...Swans to be too good here Win

Last 5
Syd 3-1-1 (beating a top 8 side, draw to a bottom 8 side, losing to a top 8 side)
Coll 3-2 (beating a top 8 side, losing to a top 8 side)

Sydney beat a raging favourite in Hawthorn, who are now considered out of form. They lost recently to the Pies, making it 3 consecutive losses to them.
Collingwood get 3 of their 1st 22 back this week, key players in Didak, Rusling & Fraser.
Neither side deserve strong favouritism, but the Pies did have the Swans measure 2-3 weeks ago.

Collingwood lines & win

Adelaide - this could be a blowout but the way the Crows play probably not, Hawks are young and inexperienced and have only beaten 1 Top 8 side in their last 13 games...Crows for me, but probably no bet

Last 5
Haw 3-2 (2 losses against top 8 sides, wins against bottom
Adel 4-1 (beating 2 top 8 sides, losing to a top 8 side)

The Hawks appear to be hitting the wall, Adelaide appear to be coming into form at the right time of the year. If this game was at home, Adelaide would be $1.30- let's not forget what happened last time these 2 sides played. The Hawks for me not quite ready to go deep into September.

Adelaide lines

Geelong should win but pressure is a wonderful thing, strangely the Roos have the edge in finals experience....this could be a cracker, have to favour Geelong but........no bet or maybe a small sniff at the Roos

Last 5
Geel 4-1 (beating 2 top 8 sides, losing to a top 8 side)
Kang 2-3 (losing to a top 8 side)

The Kangaroos have played the last 4 games at Telstra DOOM. However, they appear to handle that better than most other sides. Despite Geelong taking care of the Roos in their last meeting, this would be the side they least want to play- the Kanga's are capable of causing an upset. However, the Cats have also got key players back, missing from the Port loss.

Kangaroo lines