AFL G/F + SANFL PRELIM DISCUSSION + 2008 AFL FLAG ODDS

[mal]

These are MAL odds only to be used for discussion purposes

GE $1-30
PP $3-05

NA
EG

I tip GE but hope for PP the pride of South Australia

[mighty_tiger_79]

the cats will be winning making it a double after the VFL got up today, glad I took the $4 on the double a few weeks back!!!!!!

North should beat the Eagles next week - big chance it could be a draw.....

[Dutchy]

I took $1.89 on offer for Geelong after the Roos defeat, just layed off half off it at $1.39, so effectively got the rest on at $2.10 for Geelong to win the flag...

If I can get $1-70 of better for North this week Ill be charging

[bayman]

geelong i think will win & i also think losing wilson is a bigger blow than most think as he to me seems to be the 'heart & soul' player from port

eagles to beat north & comfortably

[mal]

GLENELG AND THE TOSS WHY ???????????
------------------------------------------

I punted on the EG to beat GL on the weekend
but I was perplexed when GL won the toss and kicked into the breeze
Given Glenelg have had some poor first quarter starts recently why ????????
1/4 TIME
EG 4-4
GL 1-0

Question
" Should slow beginning teams kick with the breeze first ?."

NA
EG

I need some intelligent input into this game gentlemen
I am equal leader in the SAFOOTY tipping comp and need some astute guidance
TIP + MARGIN needed

[Ecky]

I punted on the EG to beat GL on the weekend
but I was perplexed when GL won the toss and kicked into the breeze
Given Glenelg have had some poor first quarter starts recently why ????????

Because a (weak) cool change was coming through swinging the breeze around from the North-West to the South. The wind was forecast to be more from the South later in the game, so it made sense to kick against the breeze in the first quarter when the breeze was weaker.

Simple.

[mal]

I punted on the EG to beat GL on the weekend
but I was perplexed when GL won the toss and kicked into the breeze
Given Glenelg have had some poor first quarter starts recently why ????????

Because a (weak) cool change was coming through swinging the breeze around from the North-West to the South. The wind was forecast to be more from the South later in the game, so it made sense to kick against the breeze in the first quarter when the breeze was weaker.

Simple.

Thanks for that ECKYSTEIN

But stop calling me SIMPLE !

[mal]

250 @ $6-00 27/05/07
100 @ $4-60 03/06/07

They were my investments On Geelong to win the flag this year
They were the best team in 2007 and deserved the flag
Whoever ran 2nd this year was always going to be a side that peaked by g/final day
I in the AFL room was one of the few that tipped them to win the flag in 2007

What odds should they be in 2008?
About $4 in my starting odds
Might seem big odds
BUT
WC were touted as being the unbeatable team for the next few years as well pre-season

MALS 2008 ODDS

GE $4-00
WC$4-50
CO $5-00
PP $7-00
SS $7-50
HW$11-00
WB $15-00
SK $21-00
BL $31-00
FR $81-00
KA $101-00
ML $101-00
AC $126-00
ES $126-00
RI $1001-00
CA $2001-00

ABOUT 125%

[SCD]

MALS 2008 ODDS

GE $4-00
WC$4-50
CO $5-00
PP $7-00
SS $7-50
HW$11-00
WB $15-00
SK $21-00
BL $31-00
FR $81-00
KA $101-00
ML $101-00
AC $126-00
ES $126-00
RI $1001-00
CA $2001-00

ABOUT 125%

Centrebet have their market up already - some interesting prices I would have thought...

GE $3.25
HA / PP / WCE $9
CO / FR $11
STK $13
AC / SS $15
BL / KA $26
ML $34
CA / WB $41
ES $51
RI $67

Betting @ 122%

SCD's early views
AC - under the odds @ $15 even as a supporter I can't see them challenging at this stage
BL - about right at that price
CA - way under the odds, should be triple figures
CO - good value here, would have thought $7 - $8 would have been around the mark
ES - should be spoon favourites, $51 - should be at least that price to make the 8
FR - $11 NO WAY!! these under achievers should be at least $26 and really should struggle
GE - about right price for how dominant Geelong were this year
HA - about right @ $9 - but is a team you could risk at a couple of extra points if a bookie
KA - think they are over odds @ $26, were very good all year (except 2 finals) and will be hurting over their performance + Thompson back
ML - $34 can't be serious, they can't win it next year..
PP - not sure here.. $9 is about right, but what has the 20 goal loss done to their confidence??
RI - $67 should be their top 8 price.. not premiership - like Essendon will be in the bottom few
STK - $13 is spot on.. 3rd best team in the last 12 rounds behind Geelong and Port and Kosi to play out of the square with Riewolt makes them very dangerous - a few back from injury, here could be value next year...
SS - may have had their time and $15 looks a bit skinny for me
WB - won't make finals next year, so under the odds
WCE - huge value here, best value of all.. Judd = huge loss, but Cousins / Kerr / Stenglein / Cox and Priddis make up for it.. injury killed them this year and can make amends at that price...

[Punk Rooster]

250 @ $6-00 27/05/07
100 @ $4-60 03/06/07

Have we seen these bets posted anywhere on safooty before????
If so play on, but if not

[bayman]

250 @ $6-00 27/05/07
100 @ $4-60 03/06/07

Have we seen these bets posted anywhere on safooty before????
If so play on, but if not

no punk i can verify these bets as i've seen them he had 100 & a 250 cents bet on geelong

[mal]

250 @ $6-00 27/05/07
100 @ $4-60 03/06/07

Have we seen these bets posted anywhere on safooty before????
If so play on, but if not

ooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooops
I forgot the deciMAL points
2-50 at $6-00
1-00 @4-60

Had some silver in my pockets and threw it on the Cats on those dates

[Punk Rooster]

250 @ $6-00 27/05/07
100 @ $4-60 03/06/07

Have we seen these bets posted anywhere on safooty before????
If so play on, but if not

no punk i can verify these bets as i've seen them he had 100 & a 250 cents bet on geelong

what I'm saying Bayman is- did he post at anytime during the year that he had these bets?

[mighty_tiger_79]

PUNK

i dont believe MAL posted these bets.......

under the strict guidelines that we operate under here MAL is breaking one of the golden rules..........

MAL - you now need to keep tipping LATE MAL winners to get yourself out of this!!!!!!!

[mal]

The tickets were shown to BAYMAN at the footy on Sunday
The post was premeditated to BAIT
I was wanting someone to question the validity of the 100+ 250 bets on Geelong
They were in cents not dollars
The post was designed to reel in whoever

I was expecting G to comment but Punk was next best

[SCD]

The tickets were shown to BAYMAN at the footy on Sunday
The post was premeditated to BAIT
I was wanting someone to question the validity of the 100+ 250 bets on Geelong
They were in cents not dollars
The post was designed to reel in whoever

I was expecting G to comment but Punk was next best

Was that your profit from the LATE MAL's over the space of the month in which you tipped 9 winners out of 10 races and made a $2.50 profit??

[Punk Rooster]

The tickets were shown to BAYMAN at the footy on Sunday
The post was premeditated to BAIT
I was wanting someone to question the validity of the 100+ 250 bets on Geelong
They were in cents not dollars
The post was designed to reel in whoever

I was expecting G to comment but Punk was next best

Yes Mal, it was fantastic- I prostrate myself at the feet of the world's greatest living comedian...

[The Dutchman]

When Brisbane won their first flag a mate of mine put $20 on them to win the next two flags @ 300/1.

Wonder what odds we can get for the cats to do the same?

[mighty_tiger_79]

When Brisbane won their first flag a mate of mine put $20 on them to win the next two flags @ 300/1.

Wonder what odds we can get for the cats to do the same?

probably double that

[Ecky]

When Brisbane won their first flag a mate of mine put $20 on them to win the next two flags @ 300/1.

Wonder what odds we can get for the cats to do the same?

Brisbane would have never been 300/1 to win the next two flags after they won the first one - I think your mate's story has grown a few legs......

Geelong would be around the $10 mark to win 3 in a row ($3-$3.50 for both years, keeping in mind they aren't independent events)