Who knows their weather? Strange betting option!

[Dutchy]

Which State Will Receive The Most Rain In April?

Market is open.
Pay on the state or territory which receives the most rainfall for the month of April 2008 according to Bureau of Meteorology official rainfall report 5 days after final day of designated month. Period is from midnight March 31 to midnight April 30. SINGL

TAS 2.70
NSW/ACT 2.85
VIC 5.00
QLD 5.75
NT 11.00
WA 21.00
SA 26.00

Without knowing any stats surely Queensland would be a show? Wet season in the tropics and a huge state to capture...thinking seriously of haveing a bet!!!!

[mighty_tiger_79]

WA at $21 is good odds

but DUTCHY

you arent going to seriously consider havin a bet??????

[Interceptor]

If it was me, I'd be looking at the stats on the Bureau's site first -actually have a look at this:

http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/ahead/rain_ahead.shtml

Even has contact numbers if you want some advice!

Good luck...

[Ecky]

Interesting...It seems like a very poorly defined event to me - the only monthly rainfall summaries the BOM puts out on a state by state level are these,

http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/current/month/aus/archive/index.shtml

but what they show are average rainfall across the state, not totals. I would seek clarification from Centrebet before placing any bets...

Assuming it is these average rainfalls (it must be since Tassie is favourite!), the best resources to use to get an idea of the true odds are:

Maps of average April rainfall in each state:
http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/map/rainfall/IDCJCM0004_rainfall.shtml
Forecast rainfall for the next 8 days:
http://www.bom.gov.au/jsp/watl/rainfall/pme.jsp

+ You can work out what the average rainfall is for each state by using the summary from last April (comparing the averages with the %departure from the means)
http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/current/month/aus/archive/200704.summary.shtml

The predictions Interceptor listed above are also slightly helpful, but remember that there is a huge margin of error around these predictions, so take them largely with a grain of salt.

[Ecky]

Without knowing any stats surely Queensland would be a show? Wet season in the tropics and a huge state to capture...thinking seriously of haveing a bet!!!!

Not really - the wet season is basically over now.

PS I reckon Centrebet would have researched these odds properly by looking at what has happend each April for the last xxx years, so unless you have done the same, I would strongly recommend not having a bet (unless you are doing it for the novelty factor only!)

[eags]

You might also find this long range forecast useful (next 28 days expected rainfall)

http://www.weatherzone.com.au/longrange/raindatesdrill.jsp

[Dutchy]

Thanks for the info Lads, had a good look at it and still think Qld is value, its really the only State that once it starts raining it can rain for days and days, their rainfall has been excellent the last 6 months and its still the tail end of the wet season in the tropics (rain forecast every day for the next week up in Cairns)

Anyway Im going to chuck a lazy $20- on it for a bit of interest for the month, I want to see plenty of wet tracks in Qld!!!

[eags]

Thanks for the info Lads, had a good look at it and still think Qld is value, its really the only State that once it starts raining it can rain for days and days, their rainfall has been excellent the last 6 months and its still the tail end of the wet season in the tropics (rain forecast every day for the next week up in Cairns)

Anyway Im going to chuck a lazy $20- on it for a bit of interest for the month, I want to see plenty of wet tracks in Qld!!!

Tassie value I reckon, with even a small one on WA given a bit has been forecast for this month.

[Dutchy]

Queensland into $5.20...go you good things!

found this which I will watch with interest, been good rains in Qld!

http://www.bom.gov.au/hydro/flood/index.shtml

[another grub]

I spoke with Keith Martin as my mate from the advertiser knows him.... he said get on Tassie......

[spell_check]

The total rainfall would have to be averaged by the number of stations wouldn't it? Otherwise Tasmania wouldn't be so short on odds.

[Dutchy]

Rules - Pay on the state or territory which receives the most rainfall for the month of April according to the BOM official rainfall report

Queensland shorten again into $5-00

[spell_check]

Rules - Pay on the state or territory which receives the most rainfall for the month of April according to the BOM official rainfall report

Queensland shorten again into $5-00

Well that's certainly the best bet then, for the reasons you stated above.

[mighty_tiger_79]

whats the update on the rain scenario as we head into the final straight????

[eags]

NSW/ACT well in front I would imagine

[eags]

[another grub]

Ive lost my bet

[Dutchy]

Yeah 13 days straight of rain in NSW got them the choccies...

[another grub]

do they do it next month?

[Zelezny Chucks]

I think its grass growing next month!

Is there anything you won't have a go at Grub?