AFL round 9

[another grub]

50/50 games this week

Kangas v freo

Rich v Ess

Crows v Carl

WCE v Coll

Syd v Port

Any thoughts?

TAB odds.....


1007 Geelong $1.12
1016 Wst Bulldogs $5.75

1009 North Melbourne $1.70
1006 Fremantle $2.10

1003 Carlton $1.55
1001 Adelaide $2.35

1015 West Coast $1.45
1004 Collingwood $2.65

1005 Essendon $1.60
1012 Richmond $2.25

1014 Sydney $1.55
1011 Port Adelaide $2.35

1013 St Kilda $1.13
1002 Brisbane $5.50

1008 Hawthorn $1.15
1010 Melbourne $5.00

[Johno6]

50/50 games this week

Kangas v freo

Rich v Ess

Crows v Carl

WCE v Coll

Any thoughts?

very tought but these are my tips...
but they could very well change by fri

[Q.]

If Thomas, Medhurst, Didak, Rocca et al. all return you'd have to think that Collingwood are overs.

Bulldogs Line Bet might also be worth a punt.

[Johno6]

i think there is some good value there... some money to be had.

hopefully i win a multi bet this week!

[Dutchy]

My preview

Geelong's form has been impressive, averaging a staggering 11 more Inside 50's than their opposition so far this season, looking at their Scoring shots for/against and other main stats it all reads the same. However lets look at bit deeper at their opposition - Hawks, Richmond, Collingwood, Adelaide, Brisbane, Melbourne, Sydney, North Melbourne - there you have 6 of the bottom 8 teams plus just beating Hawks in Rnd 1 proved to not be a good form line and you would expect them to beat Brisbane at home. They finally come up against a genuine contender who have a bit of form coming into FNF, Bullies are almost at full strength while there are still some injury concerns at Catland. Bullies have won 9 of the last 15 at Ethihad and won all 3 Friday night games last year (and significantly beat the spread on all 3) They are coming off back 2 back 6 day breaks which is a concern but they have a 8-3 record off 6 day breaks in the last 2 seasons which is very good. Geelong lost 8 games ATS last season, 4 of these were on Friday Night Footy. This is also their first game at ES this season. I like the Bullies to cover the spread here which is in the mid 30's, if they can run with the Cats I even give them a chance of an upset.

Who could tip the winner of Roos/Freo? Ive tried to find an edge in this game but cant! Think the bookies have got this right with the Roos slight favs, its been proven you only need to score 13+ goals to beat Freo and the Roos can do this at home if things click, Freo are only averaging 62ppg on the road this year. NO BET unless for some reason the Roos drift to evens.

Carlton head interstate for the 3rd time this year having lost both road trips so far as favourites. They have a 6 day break coming into this game and have another 6 day break next week, Id say they have had a very light week on the track in preparation for the dreaded back 2 back 6 dayers. Adelaide have the 7 day break and at home which hasnt been a happy hunting ground this season. They have lost their last 5 games ATS and I expect a big performance here, they have some injury concerns also but reckon they are worth a small punt at +9.0 on offer at home.

WCE host Collingwood, this game is another hard to judge Collingwood on B2B 6 day breaks, you just cant back them, although I dont have any confidence in backing WCE at the short price. Im staying out of this game but I expect this to be a low scoring defensive game so maybe a low score play once the lines are released. If you like on of these teams Id suggest a bet 1-39 would be safe.

Essendon are playing well depsite their depleted list, Im suprised they arent shorter against Richmond who should have won last week. Maybe cause Richmond almost have a full squad to choose from. I expect Richmond to push Essendon here and maybe get the win. Ill be looking at a small play on Richmond at the points.

Sydney/Port is another game which is hard to invest on. So many questions about these teams, looking thru the stats doesnt make it any clearer. Its obvious Sydney are playing amore offensive game and Port are happy to play that style so if the total score line is low (<180) I might have a crack at the over but apart from that Im happy to stay out and make this game a NO BET

Saints are playing their 4th game in a row at ES, I dont care how much the grass cover has improved they are still pounding on a surface that is 30cm's above concrete, players complain about it all the time. Wouldnt suprise me one bit if the Saints are a bit sore this week and recovery has been tough. For me this is an automatic fade. Lions come to town off a home game and a 8 day break. Voss will be setting them for this game big time IMO, as usual their guns will need to fire but they are the best forward line that the Saints have come up against so far I reckon. I like the Lions to cover the spread here at around the mid 30's, reckon this one might be decided by 2-3 goals.

Melbourne have covered the Spread in their last 5 games, they have been playing OK however a deeper look at the Stats might say they have been a bit lucky. Melbourne have kicked 56-45 in the past 5 weeks compared to their opposition 62-76. To their credit Melbourne have been accurate, but this and their oppositions poor kicking has kept them in the game IMO and allowed them to cover. The Hawks need a kill and come off a 9 day break for this clash, I reckon Melbourne's luck might run out here and Hawks might get their season right on track, will be taking Hawks at the mid 30's line.

Suggested Bets
Bullies Line
Adelaide Line
Richmond Line
Lions Line
Hawks Line

Good luck all

[the joker]

I Took Crows to win today $500 @ 2.35, Hopefully i can double my Rudd Money

[Johno6]

i hope you got the rudd money twice..........

coz u just lost 500 (i hope i eat my own words for ur sake mate)

[the joker]

i hope you got the rudd money twice..........

coz u just lost 500 (i hope i eat my own words for ur sake mate)

nah not twice

[Dutchy]

THE Terry Wallace saga caused a big stir in betting circles.

Sports Alive's Gerard Daffy said punters reacted to speculation Wallace had been sacked by backing the Tigers from $2.35 to $2.20 to defeat Essendon tomorrow night.

TAB Sportsbet even took $50 on Richmond for the flag at $1001.

"For a short time, the punters hopped on the old 'sacked coach' train and threw their money at the Tigers, but as soon as it came out Wallace had kept his gig, the market turned around again," Daffy said.

"All the money since has been for the Bombers. It's been the best betting game of the week with the Bombers in from $1.67 to $1.62 and the Tigers $2.35 in to $2.20 and back to $2.35."

Bigger bets have been $8000 on the Dons at $1.67 with Darwin Sportsbet and $5000 at $1.65 with Sportingbet Australia.

"The Bombers are specials," Betstar's Alan Eskander said.

Punters are also keen on the Bulldogs to give the Cats a serious shake tonight.

"There's not actually much money for the Dogs to win, but a heap for them at the line. It's been 39.5 into 37.5 points and is even less elsewhere," Daffy said.

Sportingbet Australia's Michael Sullivan said: "It does seem a big line for a side that pushed the Cats all the way in last year's preliminary final."

TAB Sportsbet took bets of $15,000 at $1.90, $5000 at $1.80 and $3000 at $1.75 on the Dogs with a 39.5-point start.

Against the trend Darwin Sportsbet took a $20,000 bet on the Cats at $1.14.

Flemington Sportsbet's Norm Short likes Brisbane at $1.91 with 34.5 points start.

"Although the Saints have a 4-1 record against the Lions at Etihad, the Saints are playing their fourth game in 21 days at Etihad and will be leg weary," Short said.

ST KILDA continues to firm in Betfair's "Last Team Standing" market.

"St Kilda traded as high as $12, but is into $2.52, while there was plenty of money for the Cats at $1.22 and it's out to $1.41," Betfair's Jake Norton said.

[gadj1976]

Given what I've heard about Richmond tonight - they should get belted. What a mess they are.

[mighty_tiger_79]

"Although the Saints have a 4-1 record against the Lions at Etihad, the Saints are playing their fourth game in 21 days at Etihad and will be leg weary," Short said.

[Dutchy]

"Although the Saints have a 4-1 record against the Lions at Etihad, the Saints are playing their fourth game in 21 days at Etihad and will be leg weary," Short said.

the bookies are catching on

[another grub]

they are a couple of days behind you tho dutchy.

Brisbane have Merritt and Patful out. They were saying last night that Brennan will have to stand Kossie

[overloaded]

Is this a good bet??

Most goals tonight?
3258 HAHN Mitchell (WBDS) $61.00

[Brodlach]

Is this a good bet??

Most goals tonight?
3258 HAHN Mitchell (WBDS) $61.00

I would have thought Steve Johnson was a monty tonight.

[overloaded]

considering he didnt kcik a goal last week and is spending a lot of time up the ground..... get a grip

[Brodlach]

considering he didnt kcik a goal last week and is spending a lot of time up the ground..... get a grip

Last week Chapman didnt play and so he need to play further up the ground, but with Chapman back and Mooney out suspended, I think he play nearer to goals. The week before against the Swans, he was the highest goalkicker on the groun and the week before that against the Dees.

[Q.]

I would have thought Steve Johnson was a monty tonight.

considering he didnt kcik a goal last week and is spending a lot of time up the ground..... get a grip

Last week Chapman didnt play and so he need to play further up the ground, but with Chapman back and Mooney out suspended, I think he play nearer to goals. The week before against the Swans, he was the highest goalkicker on the groun and the week before that against the Dees.

Great call

[Dutchy]

My preview

Geelong's form has been impressive, averaging a staggering 11 more Inside 50's than their opposition so far this season, looking at their Scoring shots for/against and other main stats it all reads the same. However lets look at bit deeper at their opposition - Hawks, Richmond, Collingwood, Adelaide, Brisbane, Melbourne, Sydney, North Melbourne - there you have 6 of the bottom 8 teams plus just beating Hawks in Rnd 1 proved to not be a good form line and you would expect them to beat Brisbane at home. They finally come up against a genuine contender who have a bit of form coming into FNF, Bullies are almost at full strength while there are still some injury concerns at Catland. Bullies have won 9 of the last 15 at Ethihad and won all 3 Friday night games last year (and significantly beat the spread on all 3) They are coming off back 2 back 6 day breaks which is a concern but they have a 8-3 record off 6 day breaks in the last 2 seasons which is very good. Geelong lost 8 games ATS last season, 4 of these were on Friday Night Footy. This is also their first game at ES this season. I like the Bullies to cover the spread here which is in the mid 30's, if they can run with the Cats I even give them a chance of an upset.
TICK

Who could tip the winner of Roos/Freo? Ive tried to find an edge in this game but cant! Think the bookies have got this right with the Roos slight favs, its been proven you only need to score 13+ goals to beat Freo and the Roos can do this at home if things click, Freo are only averaging 62ppg on the road this year. NO BET unless for some reason the Roos drift to evens.

Carlton head interstate for the 3rd time this year having lost both road trips so far as favourites. They have a 6 day break coming into this game and have another 6 day break next week, Id say they have had a very light week on the track in preparation for the dreaded back 2 back 6 dayers. Adelaide have the 7 day break and at home which hasnt been a happy hunting ground this season. They have lost their last 5 games ATS and I expect a big performance here, they have some injury concerns also but reckon they are worth a small punt at +9.0 on offer at home.
TICK

WCE host Collingwood, this game is another hard to judge Collingwood on B2B 6 day breaks, you just cant back them, although I dont have any confidence in backing WCE at the short price. Im staying out of this game but I expect this to be a low scoring defensive game so maybe a low score play once the lines are released. If you like on of these teams Id suggest a bet 1-39 would be safe.
TICK

Essendon are playing well depsite their depleted list, Im suprised they arent shorter against Richmond who should have won last week. Maybe cause Richmond almost have a full squad to choose from. I expect Richmond to push Essendon here and maybe get the win. Ill be looking at a small play on Richmond at the points.
WRONG

Sydney/Port is another game which is hard to invest on. So many questions about these teams, looking thru the stats doesnt make it any clearer. Its obvious Sydney are playing amore offensive game and Port are happy to play that style so if the total score line is low (<180) I might have a crack at the over but apart from that Im happy to stay out and make this game a NO BET
TICK

Saints are playing their 4th game in a row at ES, I dont care how much the grass cover has improved they are still pounding on a surface that is 30cm's above concrete, players complain about it all the time. Wouldnt suprise me one bit if the Saints are a bit sore this week and recovery has been tough. For me this is an automatic fade. Lions come to town off a home game and a 8 day break. Voss will be setting them for this game big time IMO, as usual their guns will need to fire but they are the best forward line that the Saints have come up against so far I reckon. I like the Lions to cover the spread here at around the mid 30's, reckon this one might be decided by 2-3 goals.
TICK

Melbourne have covered the Spread in their last 5 games, they have been playing OK however a deeper look at the Stats might say they have been a bit lucky. Melbourne have kicked 56-45 in the past 5 weeks compared to their opposition 62-76. To their credit Melbourne have been accurate, but this and their oppositions poor kicking has kept them in the game IMO and allowed them to cover. The Hawks need a kill and come off a 9 day break for this clash, I reckon Melbourne's luck might run out here and Hawks might get their season right on track, will be taking Hawks at the mid 30's line.
WRONG

Suggested Bets
Bullies Line
Adelaide Line
Richmond Line
Lions Line
Hawks Line

Good luck all

Always good to look back at these with hindsight, dont think I was too far off, apart from the Hawks Im dark I didnt play the over in the Port/Sydney game, they put up >187.5 and I though it was a tad high to punt on, but it went over anyway

[Interceptor]

Can't believe someone put $100k on the Dockers

Adelaide Crows feather punter's nest

Jon Anderson | May 24, 2009 11:30pm

IF ONE swallow doesn't make a summer, then one Crow shouldn't make a winter.

Unless you bet with TAB Sportsbet and fancied Adelaide to beat Carlton

TAB Sportsbet put up a generous $2.35 about the Crows in a game that was a milestone for their favourite son Andrew McLeod, and they never looked like losing.

Nor did the punter who had a very profitable afternoon.

He began with $22,000 on the Crows to get within 9.5 points at $1.90. Never in doubt.

He backed up with an even $30,000 at $2.35 about Adelaide winning. Just as simple. And then he got a little more complicated.

He parted with $10,000 - only temporarily, as it turned out - for Adelaide to win by more than 39.5pts at $3.95.

Now the Blues did fight back in the second half and at one stage that bet was little hope.

Then the Crows surged again late and with the margin 38 points in their favour, Jason Porplyzia kicked a goal after the siren to take it to 44 and past the magical 39.5.

That equates to a cool $171,000 profit for risking $62,000. Presumably Moet was the drink of choice.

But for every lucky tale there is one of woe.

A Sports Alive punter had $6000 on the Blues to win just $300 if they could get within 39.5 points.

Also in the unlucky bracket was the TAB Sportsbet client who whacked $30,000 on the Bulldogs at $6 to win $150,000 against Geelong.

There was plenty of money for the Dogs, and while a win to them would have been massive to the bagmen, breaking the line of around 36.5 points ensured the game was far from a wipe-out.

When six of eight favourites win, you usually assume it was a wipe-out for bookies. But Collingwood winning ended a lot of multies.

Norm Short of Flemington Sportsbet went so far as to say the Magpies are the bookies' best friends.

"Never thought I would say it, but they regularly provide results for us because they win so many times when they shouldn't, and lose when they should win," Short said.

"My problem on the weekend was I liked Freo and let punters on accordingly, one having $10,000 on North at $1.80. And the biggest go for the weekend were the Bombers. We took $20,000 at $1.93 to win at the line.

"Next best after them was Melbourne, who were backed well enough for their line to shorten from 36.5 into 28.5."

Sportingbet Australia didn't enjoy its best weekend, with the big boys getting it right on most occasions.

"We took a multi of $50,000 on Sydney, St Kilda and Hawthorn at $2.22 and a further $75,000 on the Saints at $1.17," Michael Sullivan said.

"Then there was $50,000 on the Cats at $1.14 and a succession of bets on Essendon, including $50,000 and $20,00, to win by 40 points or more. Naturally, they won by 40."

Phil Hannah of Sportsbet in Darwin copped $200,000 on Geelong at $1.15 from Catman II, and $50,000 on the Dons at $1.55. But there were a couple of losers, including the bloke who had $100,000 on the Dockers at $2.17.

"We also took a bet of $100,000 at $2.20 on Brisbane at halftime, but at the other end of the scale $60,000 at the same price on Collingwood at halftime," Hannah said.

Eskander Betstar said it was a 50-50 result for bookies and punters in Round 9, although the Bulldogs or the Brisbane Lions winning would have made it a KO for the bagmen.

"We desperately wanted Freo to win with two bets of $20,000 at $1.80 and one of $8000 at $1.75 about North," Alan Eskander said.

"And Adelaide were bad, with Carlton virtually unplayable, being $1.63 to $1.71. But the dear old Pies got us back in the ball park with bets of $8000, $6000 and $5000 on West Coast at $1.63."

Gerard Daffy of Sports Alive is consistently amazed that punters jump on teams in the run when results often change.

"North was half gone, Collingwood stuffed, Essendon struggling and even St Kilda, and punters bet accordingly, jumping off teams after just a quarter," Daffy said.

"They score too quickly these days to declare a game over."

http://www.news.com.au/adelaidenow/sport/afl/story/0,26547,25532019-5016212,00.html