SA Footy

SALE Race 5

Skipping the maidens as you can't really do the ratings for maiden races unless your a machine!!

Have looked at the videos and a quick look at the form-guide. Some quick comments.

#1 ELGRANDO HILTON Is suited by the inside draw and has 10/21 placings Track/Distance. Last start was OK out of the boxes from the squeeze draw. Started to come into the rails when positioned up nicely on the rails. But was checked and dropped a few lengths. Still managed to run on OK in 25.53. Needs a bit of luck early.

#2 SPIN THE WHEELS Likes to get off the track slightly in his races. Was slow out on the 20th October from box 4. And just stayed wide the entire race. Managed to show some strength in the finish though when running 25.59. Last week, returned to normal good box manners and was up the front early. Wanted to get off the track again, causing box 8 to fall. Came again at the finish.... well ok. Ran 25.25. Without the pace to clear this lot, might find trouble on the bend when goes wide.

#3 DICTATOR Is slow out of the boxes and hasn't won since May when beating the talented Lady Gaga at Sandown. Was sent up the 340m straight grass track at healesville last week and finished well back. With 78 starts and no recent form Dictator is hard to suggest.

#4 FIRE MISS Excellent winning strike rate helped by early speed. Boasts welll for a race like this which lacks that early speed. So Box 4 shouldn't be a worry. Especially since the corner doesn't come up for quite some time. Sound Warragul form too. Hard to go passed this runner. Should win.

#5 DARK DAIMLA Well you can't ignore the 2/30 career wins. It just doesn't give you any incentive to back for the win. 5/11 placings at Track/Distance though is ok. Last start at Sale, really only battled after being checked wide. Stayed wide throughout the run and didn't show anything in the finish when running 25.85. Won't lead and won't win.

#6 KIRJEN LASS IS really out of form. Got absolutely clobbered last start at The Meadows from box 4 and just wasn't up to racing after that had happened. Hasn't won since July and since then has barely shown anything apart from a solid placing over the 520m here behind Mr.Nigel. But needed everything to go right then.

#7 TEE KENNELLY Almost fell out of the boxes last start at Sale. Was 8-10 lengths behind the field easily. Yet managed to muster up a fair amount of pace mid-race to surge through the field. Looked like it was on fire it was going that fast. Of course faded in the finish, but definately gave a good impression for an old timer.

#8 OKAY LANKAN Pinged last start at Sale and led all the way in 25.46. Attacked the last corner quite agressively as didn't roll out too wide and lose momentum, just gunned it. Which was good to see. 4/8 Track/Distance wins. 4/11 career wins. Interestingly this dog HASN'T in the placings (if you exclude wins). So either lobs on the bunny and chases that thing the whole way home to victory, or finds too much trouble and gives up in the hunt. I think today, is ready to break that trend and score a placing.

#4-8-1-2

Market:

#4 $2.30
#8 $5.80
#1 $7.50
#2 $10
#7 $15
#6 $21
#5 $33
#3 $50

I see the winner as the obvious choice, but am hard pressed to find a definate place-getter behind #8.

Exacta's would be the form of exotic bet here. And plenty of value in BACKING #4 and laying #3,5.

so 4/1,2,8 for units then 1,2,4,8

4/f

f/4

4-8 X 5
4-1 X 2
4-2 X 1

8-4 X 1.5
1-4 X 1
2-4 X .5

I don't think F is a viable betting option for 1st and 2nd here, because I don't rate #3,5. No point throwing them in on the sheer hope that there is an upset.

Best to concentrate on the numbers you rate. Especially in clear betting scenario's.

TRIFECTA bets.... definately F would come into action.
F4 bets too.

4/8/1
4/8/2
4/1/8
4/2/8
4/1/2
4/2/1
8/4/1
8/4/2
8/1/4
8/2/4
1,2/4/8

1,2,4,8

4/8/f
4/f/8
4/1,2,8/1,2,8
4/1,2,8/f
1,2,8/4/1,2,8
1,2,8/4/f

SALE RACE 6

With the boxes on the corner, it makes the race MIGHTY difficult for those who need to lead to win.

#1 SAIUNG Is far too slow out of the boxes for these today and does like to race quite wide, so this draw doesn't really suit. Hard to consider for a top 4 finish.

#2 DOHTMANN 20th Sale was well suited by the draw, and that showed in the race as stuck to the inside. Does tend to hold back a little bit in the middle stages of the race, saving a bursting finish for the end. Trouble is that if too many runners cross.... might find it hard to do best. But last two runs here 25.27 and 25.14 without a totally IDEAL run, boasts well. Top chance.

#3 PINK TAFFETA Surged to the lead last start from the squeeze box over the 520m. Hard to do. Kicked clear mid-race, but tired badly. Unfortunately there are a few runners here who are quite a lot stronger in the finishing stages, and lets face it PINK TAFFETA might not even lead, and that will do her race.

#4 DR. DOTTI Well in the Grade 5 final over the 440m here on Tuesday got squeezed to the rear and likes to race wide so found it hard to make any gains. Did win the heat with a STRONG burst out-wide on the finish line as just kept on coming all race. Ran 25.38. Was possibly a perfectly run race for Dr.Dotti. Will be running on late, but needs things to go perfectly.

#5 LANCELOT ROSE Well they backed him in last start after that burst of early speed on the 20th Sale. For the run on the 27th, never looked suited on the inside and didn't find any racing room and was spat out to the rear. Can forgive that run.

#6 SET THE TREND Three wins in the last 14 months of racing. No thanks.

#7 SALEGREYS GOLD Well if she had of crossed the field last two starts, probably would of gone onto win as really likes racing along that rail. Has 4/11 placings over this track and distance. I have a feeling she might be able to cross this field by the bend and be too good for these as does have strong 520m runs. BUT if she doesn't cross.....fades too quickly at finish.

#8 KELANDY Enjoys racing, but finds it hard to win of late. Sure had a good win at Sandown for connections in August. But really has been finding it a bit tough of late in the city. Comes back to country class and looks set to stay in country class, with maybe a few non-tab runs to finish off his career. But today, really needs to find a good position early as this race is difficult since the boxes are on the corner. #6 is too slow out. #7 crashes to rail. So might get that posi.

MARKET:

#2 $3.10
#7 $5.50
#8 $6.50
#4 $8.00
#3 $11.50
#5 $14
#1 $26
#6 $50

Will have trifecta bets. Up to #5 LANCELOT ROSE as #1,6 can't place.

race 5 - 1 is big odds unitab currently $17 win

Well we layed the winner. And ignored CITY class.

EDIT**Well I thought I did**

Phew, wasn't in bottom two.

hope for some better results in race 6

mighty_tiger_79 wrote:hope for some better results in race 6

Yes indeed. It is never nice to see your hard earned money and time being spent looking and backing the wrong things.

well some of us have to go work, so ill be listening to race 6 on the way

lets get some $$$$$$$$$$$$$$

think 4 is a certain placegetter

Well we smashed the OVERS on DOHTMANN and spewed up when the race finished. Layed the winner.... huge unders.

Trying to find out why my market was so inaccurate. Oh well. Have to study that one.

Underestimated the favourtism given to inside boxes on the 520m. Must.... Must.... remember that. And city class again.

Watchdog 3rd pick.... R5.... watchdog 2nd pick.

Must appreciate the skills of the experts.

Not too worry. Always another day.

Back to it we go.

Was my first LAY loser.