SANFL & AFL Betting for Round 17

[Punk Rooster]

Code: Select all

1.55    CENTRAL DIST.              29/7/06 2.15 PM    
2.30    SOUTH ADELAIDE             HAMRA HOMES    

1.10    NORTH ADELAIDE             29/7/06 2.20 PM    
5.50    NORWOOD                    PROSPECT OVAL    

1.05    WOOD-TORRENS               29/7/06 2.20 PM    
10.00    WEST ADELAIDE             WOODVILLE OVAL    

1.70    GLENELG                    30/7/06 2.20 PM    
2.00    PORT MAGPIES               GLENELG OVAL    

[Punk Rooster]

Code: Select all

1.30    COLLINGWOOD          28/7/06 7.10 pm    
3.40    HAWTHORN             MCG    

1.40    ST KILDA             29/7/06 1.40 PM    
2.80    RICHMOND             MCG    

2.30    WEST COAST           29/7/06 3.40 PM    
1.60    ADELAIDE             SUBIACO    

2.00    ESSENDON             29/7/06 6.40 PM    
1.80    BRISBANE             TELSTRA DOME    

2.00    PORT ADELAIDE        29/7/06 7.10    
1.80    SYDNEY               AAMI STADIUM    

2.20    KANGAROOS            30/7/06 12.40    
1.65    GEELONG              MANUKA OVAL    

2.70    CARLTON              30/7/06 1.40 PM    
1.45    FREMANTLE            TELSTRA DOME    

1.55    MELBOURNE            30/7/06 1.40 PM    
2.40    WEST. BULLDOGS          

[Punk Rooster]

Glenelg look great value.

[another grub]

Hawks $4 into $3.40.... no value anymore!!
Glenelg all up Central surely?!?!?!?!

[mal]

$1-55 Centrals, yeah I'd like to see that.
Houdini sports have done it again

[bayman]

i can only get 4% at the bank so the eagles at 5% looks good value to me !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

[mal]

i can only get 4% at the bank so the eagles at 5% looks good value to me !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Whats wrong with 55 % on the short term money market[CD]

[Punk Rooster]

i can only get 4% at the bank so the eagles at 5% looks good value to me !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Whats wrong with 55 % on the short term money market[CD]

What's wrong with 70% on the Short-term Money Market? (Bays)

[Dutchy]

i can only get 4% at the bank so the eagles at 5% looks good value to me !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Whats wrong with 55 % on the short term money market[CD]

What's wrong with 70% on the Short-term Money Market? (Bays)

Agree Punk - Bays are great value...lob them into the Crows $2.70!!!

[Dutchy]

i can only get 4% at the bank so the eagles at 5% looks good value to me !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

you need to find a new bank Bayman if your only getting 4%!

[another grub]

I have been looking at the high-low double form. Anyone got any theories on narrowing down a winner....
The high form is as follows.....
5 Highs at Telstra Doom
6 Highs at AAMI only 3 crows, 2 power, 1 sydney
2 Highs at MCG
1 High at GABBA
1 High AT Skilled Stadium
1 Subiaco

Adel 3
Coll 2
bullies 2
PA 2
Geel 2
BL 2
syd 1
wc 1
freo1

get what you like out of that?
The only rain and ordinary conditions forecast over the weekend is Perth.... therefore I will put both Adel and WC as the low....
as for the high.... Wont come from AAMI stadium with Port and Sydney renowned low-scorers. That leaves the 4 Telsra stadium participants as the high..... Terrific Value
HIGH.... ESS, CARL, FREO, BRIS
LOW.... ADEL, WCE.....
cost $5 invest is only $40.... @ various prices (odds) from $100 to $600

[mighty_tiger_79]

Centrals are a gift at those odds. admittedly they arent playing as well this season as previous seasons where they were the dominant force.

South dont have the best record coming off a bye, earlier this year they did give the eagles a 6 goal head start at woodville to lose by under a goal.

the mail is they needed the break but i would think Centrals would want PAYBACK for the floggin south gave them at Noarlunga.

Glenelg who knows what will happen, port have a lot of injuries and arent the same as when we played them at Alberton but they always cause us problems. Glenelg need to win if they are serious about finals.........

[bayman]

the 4%/5% was a joke !!! i think yes on paper we will beat port but they definately have an physological advantage on us so i wont be backing us I'll be just happy to beat the wharves & if we dont beat them this week it'll be a long time before we do, mal dont you remember the last time central & south played you & i were on & we thought it a GIFT i'm not so sure cd will win i think south maybe too quick for them especially on a big oval, at this stage i might have something on norwood at the points but i do want to look at the teams first

[mighty_tiger_79]

CENTRALS WILL WIN BAYMAN!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

[another grub]

HE'S trying to talk you out of backing them MT79..... Your right a GIFT!!!! Happy Birthday!

[bayman]

i told him last week that norwood were a big chance last week & south is this week of defeating central, i'm not saying south are over the line but what i'm saying is they're a big chance of the upset this week

[mal]

CENTRALS WILL WIN BAYMAN!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

[Dissident]

I have been looking at the high-low double form. Anyone got any theories on narrowing down a winner....
The high form is as follows.....
5 Highs at Telstra Doom
6 Highs at AAMI only 3 crows, 2 power, 1 sydney
2 Highs at MCG
1 High at GABBA
1 High AT Skilled Stadium
1 Subiaco

Adel 3
Coll 2
bullies 2
PA 2
Geel 2
BL 2
syd 1
wc 1
freo1

get what you like out of that?
The only rain and ordinary conditions forecast over the weekend is Perth.... therefore I will put both Adel and WC as the low....
as for the high.... Wont come from AAMI stadium with Port and Sydney renowned low-scorers. That leaves the 4 Telsra stadium participants as the high..... Terrific Value
HIGH.... ESS, CARL, FREO, BRIS
LOW.... ADEL, WCE.....
cost $5 invest is only $40.... @ various prices (odds) from $100 to $600

There HAS to be a sience to it.
But there isn't. I tried working it out!

Some other questions;

How many non Victorian teams have been the LOW at HOME (ie WCE this week?)

What teams have featured the most in the HIGH and the LOW

Adelaide have the best defence this year - no team over 11 goals (as good as). How many times has the opposition been the low ?

How many times has the high low been the same game ? Adelaide has been in that situation 2 or 3 times I think.

How many times has the actual HIGH LOW been at the best odds EVER (see first 2 rounds!)

How many times has the HIGH and LOW come from a game featuring two Victorian teams?



I don't like the low in your bet. Could happen but, Adelaide are pretty good favourites so they, in theory, won't be the low. WCE are the home team, and non-victorian - I can't imagine them being the low.


The LOW has often been a really small score .. 5 - 7 goals.
Often, the bottom 4 LOW scores have been a few goals apart - making punting on it really hard and full of luck.


In my mind, the LOW will come from one of these games :

COLL-HAWTH
KANG-GEEL
CARL-FREO

The HIGH could come from :

COLL-HAW
PORT-SYD
MELB-WB

In saying that, if I was to be right, the HIGHS could be :

COLL, PORT, MELB, WB

And the LOWS could be :

HAWTH, KANG, GEEL, CARL


I haven't looked at weather yet - nor if/when the roof is open at Telstra.
Also - what players are in/out ? Is Williams out for HAWTH? Fevola out? How will suspensions affect FREO? Will McLEODs Run out of defence assist WCE?

6 or 7 goals for a low is really low - 1.5 goals a quarter. Who will have a defence to do that... ?

St Kilda will never be a low.
Melbourne will never be a low.
Western bulldogs will never be a low.
Adelaide will never be a low.

Carlton will never be a high
Essendon will never be a high

Best start is to do your TIPS.... it's hard to do a HIGH LOW if you don't think about who will at least WIN first.

So what's the wash up of all that ?

I have no idea.

HIGH LOW sucks

[mal]

CENTRALS WILL WIN BAYMAN!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

[Punk Rooster]

Did you know you can still get on Highs & Lows on Sat mornings?
The prices are adjusted accordingly, but it's still telephone numbers...

Generally, 50 points (or there abouts) is your low for the weekend.
Factor in-
who's playing under the roof of the dome
weather (in each state)
teams that flood/play negative football etc

A mate of mine invests heavily each weekend, & generally always shows a profit.