SA Footy

I had recently hit a rich vein of punting form which over the last week has been closely followed a deep trough or chasm of overconfident stupid bets who haven't hit the spot.

Every week or so there is a bet that looks at massive overs or what I consider a lock or "load up time". Admittedly this can be achieved often by betting against the Redbacks

I thought it would be a good idea to have a thread where we could share what we consider our easy money bets.

Well I have loaded up on Mitchell Stark for most wickets for the series @ $4.50
- games at Bris, WACA and Pink ball Adelaide v an opponent he has skittled in the past looks good to me. You have about 15 minutes to get on. My theory is this is the series he takes the next step.

Get on him lads.

Bugger, missed getting on .. Like your thinking though, and great idea for a topic. Sadly the online bookies don't seem to make as many mistakes with their odds as they used to.

JK wrote:Bugger, missed getting on .. Like your thinking though, and great idea for a topic. Sadly the online bookies don't seem to make as many mistakes with their odds as they used to.

I reckon you can still get on. They are not shutting that betting until Australia finish their first dig according to my Sportsbet pending bets

Yep, I was trying on Ladbrokes .. Still available on Sportsbet @ $3 (for most AUSSIE wickets), so you got the good price.

From what I have seen of the NZ attack today it suggest the leading wicket taker will come from the Australian team.

NZ bowlers will be lucky to get into double figures this series

RustyCage wrote:NZ bowlers will be lucky to get into double figures this series

Completely agree. One of them will just get ten. Maybe Boult or Southee.

I'd suggest Stark and or Jono will be good for 15-18.

Starke still at $3

Interesting to note that Sportsbet paid out on my Kane Williamson bet before he got out, before he got his ton and before the innings ended. Paid $3.75

Probably poor form by me for not backing my KW at $3.50 bet for the second dig and posting it on this thread, can't believed they only shaved 25c off the odds. It's looking like it might be easy money.

No probably about it...it is poor form

Your shout on the hill next week

mighty_tiger_79 wrote:No probably about it...it is poor form

Your shout on the hill next week

Get me on that one designated loose day of the 5 every AO test I am good for about 10 shouts.

The combination of Australian success, Australian Summer, the village green, short skirts, fake tan, coconut oil, beer in cups, pimms in jugs, jugs in short skirts and the evils of pay wave and I always have one $500 day/night per test. Last year I pulled stumps when my mate stripped down and tried to steal an earth mover he assured us he was capable of driving.

Just don't get me the day after when I'm sitting quietly at the back of the stand sipping endless water sitting in my haze of shame and regret.

2nd test overs ?

Sportsbet

Win match/Top team runscorer double
New Zealand/Doug Bracewell $251

Top Australian runscorer
First Innings second Test
Andrew Fekete $101

Top Australian wicket taker
First innings second test
Adam Voges $101

Here to s sportsbet tip
Sportsbet are betting $1.87 on the toss of a coin....

mighty_tiger_79 wrote:Here to s sportsbet tip
Sportsbet are betting $1.87 on the toss of a coin....

We really are closing in on flys up the wall, aren't we?

mal wrote:2nd test overs ?

Sportsbet

Win match/Top team runscorer double
New Zealand/Doug Bracewell $251

Top Australian runscorer
First Innings second Test
Andrew Fekete $101

Top Australian wicket taker
First innings second test
Adam Voges $101

Bet with me Mal i'll give you 500/1 on each of the above scenarios.

Booney wrote:

mighty_tiger_79 wrote:Here to s sportsbet tip
Sportsbet are betting $1.87 on the toss of a coin....

We really are closing in on flys up the wall, aren't we?

$1-87
No skill involved in a Travis or Tail bet

Occasionally American Bookies bet whats called a juice bet and give you $2-00
That is the correct odds based on probability

Betting on $1-87 on a team winning = a degree of skill
Betting $1-87 on a coin toss = an insult to punters

What if the opposing captains had a toss history* .. Say Smith was 0/5 against his counterpart?

Booney wrote:We really are closing in on flys up the wall, aren't we?

Closing in? Hmmmph, that's rearview mirror stuff...

JK wrote:What if the opposing captains had a toss history* .. Say Smith was 0/5 against his counterpart?

Redleg
Makes no difference on all previous tosses dating right back to the 19th century
$1-87 both options is unders[thats a 106.95% market, it should be 100% to break even]
If the bookies gave me $2-13 a Travis or a tail, I would bet on the toss on principal

FOOTNOTE
Even though the probability is $2-00 per toss, there is still the potential for profit or loss
In every 100 tosses it should finish 50 each, but that does not always happen


There is value in avoidance

If you DONT have a Sportsbet account and want a free $100 to bet with this weekend PM me and Ill let you know how it can be done, no deposit required. If you have an account, don't forget to sign up the Mrs also