Election betting

[Dogwatcher]

How ‘sweet’ it is as PM begins fightback!

Plotting to bring a still cocky Labor Party undone with a range of election “sweeteners,” the Prime Minister is back in “red” figures on Centrebet’s Federal Election market, and has closed the gap on rival Kevin Rudd in the race for the Lodge!


Having blown to $2.05 a few weeks back, John Howard is back into $1.95 on Centrebet, with Mr Rudd easing to $1.77 after reaching a shortest-ever price of $1.72! The Coalition lost favouritism for the Election battle in mid March under a wave of backing for Labor.

“That punting momentum that Mr Rudd has enjoyed in the past few months is still there, but there are signs of a turnaround,” Centrebet analyst Neil Evans said. “After interest rates predictably stood still, Mr Howard will continue punching holes in Labor’s seemingly flakey stance on industrial relations, and then grease up voters in next week’s budget.”

Of the $150,000.00 plunged on Labor, 80 per cent of that has come in Mr Rudd’s 2007 honeymoon period, while Mr Howard is preparing to crash through $250,000.00 barrier, although more than half of that came before Mr Rudd arrived as the Labor leader!

“As far as the betting goes, Mr Howard’s attack on Mr Rudd’s experience and integrity didn’t work, but a policy war involving Labor deputy Julia Gillard, might tell a different tale.”

Working also for Mr Howard is that Centrebet punters have backed him in from $1.31 to $1.20 to retain the seat of Bennelong after early support was all for Labor’s star recruit Maxine McKew!


FEDERAL ELECTION

$1.77 LABOR
$1.95 COALITION

BENNELONG

$1.20 John Howard (Lib)
$4.00 Maxine McKew (ALP)
$15.00 Any other candidate




Log on to http://www.centrebet.com to view its latest odds.

[another grub]

LABOR the celebrity club..... why are they doing this...its a farce..... try coming up with some good policies instead of recruiting names.... when will they recruit Willie Mason or Damien Monkhorst?
Nicole Cornes the other day couldnt answer any questions ...she just kept saying ' I will have to look at that"....FFS....NFI

[bayman]

yeah grub, nicole great to look at (especially what she wore to the magarey medal last year it was a tight pink backless dress & basically see through no bra & i believe she waxes ) but i wouldn't vote for her or anyone else that is a celebrity candidate, as for the betting on it if i did have a bet that'd be who i vote for

[Dogwatcher]

Rudd honeymoon over as Coalition claws back!

Less than a month after conceding the biggest gap to Labor in Centrebet’s Federal election market, Prime Minister John Howard has clawed back to odds-on and almost level with Kevin Rudd after a voter-friendly budget aimed at middle and lower class households!

The Prime Minister is back in to $1.90 (from $1.95) with Centrebet, while Labor has blown to $1.87 (from $1.77), the closest they have been since Mr Rudd stormed to favouritism in mid-March!

By mid-April, Labor had been backed into $1.72 favourite, forcing the Coalition’s odds into the black ($2.05) for the first time in a see-sawing battle for the Lodge which has attracted nearly $500,000.00 in bets from around the country!

“After scoring points on the economic front and cashing in on Labor’s wobbly industrial relations platform, Peter Costello has iced the cake with a budget that releases the pressure on middle class households, low-income earners and pensioners,” Centrebet analyst Neil Evans said.

“The Coalition has re-positioned itself well, and finally taken the wind out of Mr Rudd’s sails. According to the betting, it’s no longer Mr Rudd’s election to lose, but rather a genuine two-horse war. No doubt though, Labor is preparing retaliation on the technology and business fronts where the government has been criticised for not doing enough!

“Mr Rudd had dominated our market right through 2007, but the Coalition has officially put the brakes on, and the last $20,000.00 invested has all been for the government.”


FEDERAL ELECTION

$1.90 COALITION
$1.87 LABOR

[mighty_tiger_79]

it looks like Johnny will win the election and as AG says

ALL ABOARD

[another grub]

Go Johnny Go...... ALL ABOARD!!!!!!!

Rud is a dud

[Squawk]

From WorkChoices to BetChoices, huh?

$150,000 laid on Labor? Who outlayed that - if you listen to Labor all their voters are battlers?

In more recent elections the Jedis have been popular at the polls (informal votes where voters write "Jedi" on the ballot paper) - just waiting for some candidate to change their name to "Jedi" now!

[our_longreach]

From WorkChoices to BetChoices, huh?

$150,000 laid on Labor? Who outlayed that - if you listen to Labor all their voters are battlers?

The CFMEU - thats where your union fees go.

[Dogwatcher]

Coalition back favourite after Rudd response!

Two months after Kevin Rudd rode into favourite with Centrebet on the back of a sustained betting push, the Prime Minister has regained the fancied position after a seemingly underwhelming reponse to the Coalition’s budget from the Labor leader.

The Treasurer’s open-purse Budget aimed squarely at medium and lower-income households and moderate achievers at both ends of the scale had seen the Coalition firm from $1.95 to $1.90 on Centrebet, while Labor’s price had drifted from $1.77 to $1.87!

“Now the Coalition is basking in the Budget sunlight, and the positive reception granted by the country’s senior commentators and analysts left Mr Rudd with virtually nowhere to go, and effectively took the air out of his educational and technology tyres,” Centrebet’s Neil Evans said.

“After we announced the Rudd honeymoon was over, the money is continuing to arrive for the government, and the market has turned substantially – the Coalition has regained Centrebet favouritism at $1.87, with Labor a narrow outsider at $1.90.” Mr Howard has also been backed in to $1.18 to hold his Sydney seat of Bennelong, while high-profile Labor candidate Maxine McKew has drifted further to $4.25!

The following is a Centrebet Federal Election Timeline: Labor v Coalition

Early Dec: (Mr Rudd becomes Labor leader): $1.40 Coalition $2.75 ALP

Feb 6: $1.72 Coalition $2.10 ALP

Mar 6: $1.80 Coalition $1.90 ALP

Mar 12: $1.77 ALP $1.95 Coalition (Rudd becomes clear favourite)

Mar 20: $1.75 ALP $2.00 Coalition

Apr 2: $1.72 ALP $2.05 Coalition (the biggest gap Labor's way)

May 2: $1.77 ALP $1.95 Coalition

May 9: $1.87 ALP $1.90 Coalition (Budget delivered)

May 11: $1.87 Coalition $1.90 ALP (Budget response) – Coalition regains favouritism!

[Dogwatcher]

Heavy backing as Rudd regains favouritism!

A wave of money and renewed debate on whether the Prime Minister is the best leader for the Coalition has seen Labor’s Kevin Rudd storm back to favourite on Centrebet!

Punters made Mr Rudd favourite for the first time in mid-March after dominating the Federal betting book before the Coalition clawed back in the midst of work-place and industrial relations platforms, and then regained favouritism in and around a surplus-driven Federal budget!

But a series of big bets in the past 12 hours – including two of $15,000.00 at $1.90 - has seen Labor firm to $1.85, with the Coalition easing from $1.87 to $1.92. On top of that, opinion on the Liberal leadership between John Howard and Peter Costello again seems divided.

“Punters have reacted to polls and press - and an admission from Mr Howard that despite the Budget the government still has a lot of ground to make up. Labor’s price has been forced in,” Centrebet analyst Neil Evans said. “But we believe this is still a two-horse race all the way. Don’t forget Labor needs some pretty serious swings when the voters finally reach the polls!”

“Remember, the public has a ‘believe it when I see it’ attitude – and therefore they will not be convinced until the actual benefits of the Budget arrive. July and August will be the key months – and this is when the Coalition must turn around general opinion.

“There’s no doubting Mr Rudd’s a popular alternative – but he is still to convince key business sectors on industrial relations. And remember, the government didn’t win a poll after last year’s superannuation-strong Budget until mid-August – and has barely won one since! The bigger bets are definitely coming for Mr Rudd – but the Coalition still has a position.”


FEDERAL ELECTION

$1.92 COALITION
$1.85 LABOR

BENNELONG

$1.27 John Howard (Lib)
$3.10 Maxine McKew (ALP)
$25.00 Any other candidate

[Dogwatcher]

Log on to http://www.centrebet.com to view its latest odds.

[RustyCage]

John Howard surely can't be a chance of losing his seat. No matter what the odds are, how many times has a sitting PM or Premier ever lost their seat since 1901? Only once that I know of

[Hondo]

John Howard surely can't be a chance of losing his seat. No matter what the odds are, how many times has a sitting PM or Premier ever lost their seat since 1901? Only once that I know of

Not to a token well-known person / TV personality. I think voters on the day see through that stuff unless the person has legitimately been working in the community for a fair while. May just be a ploy to distract Howard from the main game a bit by keeping him honest in his electorate.

I think you can pick the safe Liberal seats .... they are the ones with the 'profile' labour candidates.

[Plunge Penguin]

Wouldn't write off McKew in the slightest here - Australians being as we are at times, there will be a lot of "Oh, I'll make a statement, one vote won't make a big difference" voters, who could end up bringing a big swing back to Labor. An interesting contest brewing here.

[Dogwatcher]

Maxine surge as ALP takes a grip!

In an unthinkable twist, there has now been more money placed with Centrebet on Maxine McKew to win Bennelong than the Prime Minister – as a flood of money shores up Labor’s charge towards favouritism for the Federal Election!

“It’s extraordinary,” Centrebet analyst Neil Evans said! “A string of bets has seen Ms McKew’s ‘hold’ climb over $10,000.00 against $9,000.00 for Mr Howard! Ms McKew is now in to $2.10, and the PM has drifted to a hard-t0-fathom $1.63.

“Remembering a PM hasn’t lost his own seat since Stanley Bruce in 1929, yet Mr Howard is clinging to favouritism in a seat he’s made his own.”

As Centrebet pushed towards $1 million in its PM book, a surge of money has seen Labor shorten to $1.50, forcing the Coalition out to $2.60!

“We’ve taken a host of bets on Labor in the last couple of weeks, plenty around the $10,000.00 mark – and one of $25,000.00 at $1.54,” Evans said. “The only significant bet on John Howard in that time is $10,000.00 at $2.55!

“In fact, of the last $150,000.00 traded through the door, $130,000.00 of that has been on Labor. There is now about $930,000.00 in the outright book – with $520,000.00 placed on the Opposition!”

Evans said the damaging Howard-Costello rift was the catalyst for serious Labor backing!

“The so-called disunity and lack of trust in the Coalition has really struck a chord with punters!

“APEC, though, might be a real opportunity for the government to mend this, otherwise Mr Rudd will march to the poll a very warm favourite, despite having shown little in sensitive policy areas.

“The PM is fast losing the personality stakes – and punters know it! But they also know, Labor is getting a free ride along in the policy debate.

“The PM will now go for a hard drawn-out campaign, and try to expose the Opposition Leader on several political fronts. It could be the PM’s best and last chance!”

Centrebet still has Saturday, November 10 as its $3.75 favourite for when the election will be held, ahead of Nov 17 ($4.75) and Nov 24 ($5.00).




SEAT OF BENNELONG

$1.63 JOHN HOWARD (Lib)
$2.10 MAXINE MCKEW (ALP)
$17.00 Any Other Candidate

PRIME MINISTER

$2.60 COALITION
$1.50 LABOR

WHEN WILL THE ELECTION BE HELD?

$3.75 NOV 10
$4.75 NOV 17
$5.00 NOV 24
$6.00 OCT 20
$6.50 NOV 3
$8.00 OCT 27
$11.00 DEC 1
$17.00 DEC 8
$21.00 OCT 13
$26.00 OCT 6
$41.00 After DEC 8
$41.00 Before OCT 6

MAJOR BETS IN LAST FORTNIGHT!

LABOR

$25,000.00 @ $1.54
$17,900.00 @ $1.54
$10,000.00 @ $1.60
$10,000.00 @ $1.60
$10,000.00 @ $1.60
$10,000.00 @ $1.58
$9,800.00 @ $1.56
$9,000.00 @ $1.54
$7,000.00 @ $1.60
$5,000.00 @ $1.58

COALITION

$10,000.00 @ $2.55
$3,000.00 @ $2.60

BET TOTAL

LABOR: 481
COALITION: 326




To check out the latest prices log on to http://www.centrebet.com

[Dogwatcher]

PUNTER BACKS HOWARD TO WIN $52,000

On the back of a couple of days of negative publicity for Labor leader Kevin Rudd, Prime Minster John Howard has received some much needed support from one punter.

Betting agency Lasseters Sportsbook has taken a single bet of $20,000 at $2.60 for the Coalition to win this year's federal election. Should the government be returned to office the punter stands to win $52,000.

"Over the past couple of months John Howard has been friendless in betting, especially after the recent interest rate rise," says Lasseters' Gerard Daffy. "However, maybe punters are starting to see through Kevin Rudd's wholesome family image."

Mr Howard remains favourite to win his Sydney seat of Bennelong despite recent good polling results for former ABC journalist and Labor candidate Maxine McKew.

Lasseters Sports Betting Manager, Gerard Daffy will appear on the Sky News program Agenda this afternoon from 4:30pm (AEST).

Australian Federal Election
$1.52 Labor (Kevin Rudd)
$2.50 Coalition (John Howard)
Seat of Bennelong
$1.60 Liberal (John Howard)
$2.20 Labor (Maxine McKew)

[Dogwatcher]

LASSETERS SPORTSBOOK

POLLS HAVE NO IMPACT ON BETTING

Election betting specialist Lasseters reports little support for the Labor party despite the latest Newspoll virtually predicting a landslide federal election victory for the ALP.

Punters have shied away from taking short odds on offer for the Kevin Rudd led Labor party ($1.50) despite the polls revealing an 18-point lead in favour of the Opposition.

"We've taken more money for the Coalition ($2.60) in the past month than we have for Kevin Rudd's Labor Party," says Lasseters spokesman Ian Loughlin. "Mark Latham led all the polls in the lead up to the last election and we all know what happened to him."

Late last month, one punter invested $20,000 at $2.60 on the Coalition to win $52,000.

Mr Howard continues to firm as the favourite in his own seat of Bennelong at $1.45 (in from $1.60) despite strong support for high profile Labor candidate Maxine McKew.


Australian Federal Election
$1.50 Labor (Kevin Rudd)
$2.60 Coalition (John Howard)