SA Footy

G'day all,

Have been having a good run lately with this, apart from last week's T-Birds debacle, so let's open again:

SYDNEY v MELBOURNE KESTRELS

May not be as far apart as many may think. Have been very impressed with the Kestrels to date, and the $21 on offer for the flag is interesting. Having said that, Sydney are running slowly back into form now, and may have the group ready to gel after the Nationals some weeks back. Won't take any silly odds on Sydney in this - would expect SS $1.30, MK $2.70. If could get points on MK at 7.5 or less, would consider this well worth a look

TIP: SYDNEY 5-7

ADELAIDE V CANBERRA

The T-Birds back at home after last week's big loss to the Phoenix; they are meeting a different class here with the Darters. The visitors will try hard for the first half but simply don't have enough class around the court to hold Adelaide all night. Just sense that Kristen Hughes may be set for a blinder; if her and Medhurst can get 50+ between them, then goodnight Canberra...expecting Adelaide at $1.10, Canberra $6.00

TIP: ADELAIDE 17-19

MELBOURNE PHOENIX V QUEENSLAND FIREBIRDS

An astute judge mentioned to me a couple of weeks back they thought the Firebirds were good smokies for the flag. That was before they run into the Phoenix at home though. Melbourne were crunched into $3.00 for the flag after last week's big win, and look set to continue. For Queensland to have any chance at all, they need 40+ from Jo Morgan - can't see her breaking free long enough for that. Melb $1.15, QLD $5.60 for mine at best.

TIP: MELBOURNE 16-18

PERTH ORIOLES V HUNTER JAEGERS

Hunter have a pretty long trip here, and having been up for a fair while now, with generally sound results, this spells a big danger game for them. Perth rolled Queensland here some weeks back, showing it never pays to completely write the Orioles off. Hunter need some big games from some of their guns (and more court time for the lovely Lara Welham too, thank you), but I'm sniffing the upset here. Am expecting Hunter at $1.40, Perth $2.70. If that transpires, Perth look the value here.

TIP: PERTH 2-4

Best of luck, lads!

Odds not out as yet, but would suggest looking at following options: if better than this on UniTab, then well worth a look:

Melbourne Kestrels at points of +7.5 or greater:

Adelaide at no less than -17.5

Perth at any +points option.

Well lads, the odds are out and either I am a bad handicapper or Unitab have some of this wrong:

No head to head on T-Birds and AIS/Canberra: points option is Adel -25.5 (!!!). Um, no - too much risk for mine.

SYD v MELB KESTRELS: Kestrels are a +12.5. I had them no worse than +7.5 - looks value to me.

PHOENIX V QLD FIREBIRDS: Phoenix are $1.01 and QLD at $13. Points option is 19.5. Firebirds at points for me.

PERTH V HUNTER: Finally consensus: Hunter at $1.48, Perth at $2.50, with points being 4.5

I've taken: Canberra at +25.5/Firebirds at +19.5/Kestrels at +12.5/Perth at +4.5 - per unit $11.75. Have thrown in a tiny rough bet of Perth into Kestrels head to head at $17.50 per $1 unit.

Some of these odds just sound good value to me. Maybe work around the Kestrels for a couple of multis and don't overlook Perth.

Well...let's look at how the tips panned out:

- 4 correct selections out of 4
- Exact margins in three games: Sydney, Phoenix and Perth
- T-Birds threw things out again by winning by too much!

However - Perth jumped at $2.50: WIN
Kestrels were at +12.5; lost by 5 (I'd said a couple of times this one seemed out)
- Firebirds were at +19.5: lost by 17

Another big night punting on the netball, lads - hope some people are making a bit out of this also!!

good work PP, keep it up....I keep forgetting the games are on Friday nights and forget!!! ....the Netball Portfolio is well and truely yours on here...