Netball - Final Minor Round previews and value

[Plunge Penguin]

The end of the minor round in Commonwealth Bank Trophy, with some real sadness this week, as three teams bid farewell to National Netball League, under the restructure next year. Perth Orioles, AIS Canberra Darters and Hunter Jaegers (nooooo!!!!! ) all play their final matches, with Melbourne Kestrels set to join them if they don't win their final match.

AIS v ADELAIDE THUNDERBIRDS

Far, far too much on the line for Adelaide here. They need a big win to boost their confidence and be absolutely assured of a finals berth. While the AIS will be pumped to the eyeballs, far too much class around the court for Adelaide. While UNITAB has opened this at $1.01 Adelaide, and $15.00 AIS, the REAL value is in the points: Adelaide are at -15.5!!!! Total game score is 108.5

TIP: Adelaide 19-21

Suggest: Adelaide at the points without a doubt. Tend to think 108.5 is a little high here, so suggest taking total score of less than 108.5

QUEENSLAND FIREBIRDS v MELBOURNE PHOENIX

There is a possibility of an upset here. QLD MUST win to have any chance of finals, as their percentage is lower than both Adelaide and the Kestrels. They are level on points with both clubs, giving plenty of incentive for the upset. Jo Morgan will still need 45 + to give them a big show, and the Phoenix have defensive height to crowd her space. Wouldn't rule QLD out of this one though, and will throw them into any multis. Phoenix the safe bet though. UNITAB: MELB: $1.10, QLD: $6.00; points option 11.5, game score 107.5

TIP: MELB 4-6

Suggest: QLD at points. Suspect a high scoring match, so over 107.5 is a good show.

PERTH v MELBOURNE KESTRELS

A real emotion charged match looming here, and Perth will look to spoil the party. They may lack a little in the goal circle, however, and the Kestrels defensive pressure, and ability to isolate the likes of Caitlin Thwaites and possibly Ashlee Howard should give them a score of 50+, which should be enough against a defensive Perth. UNITAB has this at Melb $1.30, Perth $3.25; points option 6.5, game score 101.5

TIP: KESTRELS 9-11

Suggest: Kestrels at the points; suspect low scoring match, so go under 101.5

SYDNEY SWIFTS v HUNTER JAEGERS

A heavy heart pens this last one; how will I survive without the gorgeous Lara Welham in goal for Hunter? Please come to Adelaide, the T-Birds would love you .
Anyway, onto the match...the final game of the round, and it's worth remembering that last time these sides met, Hunter caused a massive boilover with a 14 goal win. Sydney look to have plenty of options around the court, but whatever the result here, they can't move higher or lower. Hunter also can't make finals, but plenty on the line for them to cause the boilover. It's tempting to pick it, but logic JUST leans toward Sydney. No UNITAB odds as yet, but I'd guess about $1.20 Sydney, $4.10 Hunter; points of 9.5, game score 103.5

TIP: Sydney 6-8

Suggest: If the points are as I think, would look at Hunter at points. Game will be fairly even and reasonably scoring, so think plus 103.5 looks fair.


SUGGESTED MULTIS:

Adelaide -15.5/QLD +11.5/Kestrels -6.5: $6.33 per unit

Value punt: QLD/Kestrels at $8.10

Safe punt: Phoenix/Kestrels/Sydney (assuming my odds are correct on last match) - $1.97 per unit

Roughie of the round: Hunter to win.

Take game score suggestions in 4 leg multi to return $11.71

[Plunge Penguin]

The end of the minor round in Commonwealth Bank Trophy, with some real sadness this week, as three teams bid farewell to National Netball League, under the restructure next year. Perth Orioles, AIS Canberra Darters and Hunter Jaegers (nooooo!!!!! ) all play their final matches, with Melbourne Kestrels set to join them if they don't win their final match.

AIS v ADELAIDE THUNDERBIRDS

Far, far too much on the line for Adelaide here. They need a big win to boost their confidence and be absolutely assured of a finals berth. While the AIS will be pumped to the eyeballs, far too much class around the court for Adelaide. While UNITAB has opened this at $1.01 Adelaide, and $15.00 AIS, the REAL value is in the points: Adelaide are at -15.5!!!! Total game score is 108.5

TIP: Adelaide 19-21

Suggest: Adelaide at the points without a doubt. Tend to think 108.5 is a little high here, so suggest taking total score of less than 108.5

ADELAIDE WIN BY 22, GAME SCORE of 100

QUEENSLAND FIREBIRDS v MELBOURNE PHOENIX

There is a possibility of an upset here. QLD MUST win to have any chance of finals, as their percentage is lower than both Adelaide and the Kestrels. They are level on points with both clubs, giving plenty of incentive for the upset. Jo Morgan will still need 45 + to give them a big show, and the Phoenix have defensive height to crowd her space. Wouldn't rule QLD out of this one though, and will throw them into any multis. Phoenix the safe bet though. UNITAB: MELB: $1.10, QLD: $6.00; points option 11.5, game score 107.5

TIP: MELB 4-6

Suggest: QLD at points. Suspect a high scoring match, so over 107.5 is a good show.

MELBOURNE WIN BY 21, BUT GAME SCORE 109

PERTH v MELBOURNE KESTRELS

A real emotion charged match looming here, and Perth will look to spoil the party. They may lack a little in the goal circle, however, and the Kestrels defensive pressure, and ability to isolate the likes of Caitlin Thwaites and possibly Ashlee Howard should give them a score of 50+, which should be enough against a defensive Perth. UNITAB has this at Melb $1.30, Perth $3.25; points option 6.5, game score 101.5

TIP: KESTRELS 9-11

Suggest: Kestrels at the points; suspect low scoring match, so go under 101.5

KESTRELS WIN BY 9, GAME SCORE 99

SYDNEY SWIFTS v HUNTER JAEGERS

A heavy heart pens this last one; how will I survive without the gorgeous Lara Welham in goal for Hunter? Please come to Adelaide, the T-Birds would love you .
Anyway, onto the match...the final game of the round, and it's worth remembering that last time these sides met, Hunter caused a massive boilover with a 14 goal win. Sydney look to have plenty of options around the court, but whatever the result here, they can't move higher or lower. Hunter also can't make finals, but plenty on the line for them to cause the boilover. It's tempting to pick it, but logic JUST leans toward Sydney. No UNITAB odds as yet, but I'd guess about $1.20 Sydney, $4.10 Hunter; points of 9.5, game score 103.5

TIP: Sydney 6-8

Suggest: If the points are as I think, would look at Hunter at points. Game will be fairly even and reasonably scoring, so think plus 103.5 looks fair.


SUGGESTED MULTIS:

Adelaide -15.5/QLD +11.5/Kestrels -6.5: $6.33 per unit

Value punt: QLD/Kestrels at $8.10

Safe punt: Phoenix/Kestrels/Sydney (assuming my odds are correct on last match) - $1.97 per unit

Roughie of the round: Hunter to win.

Take game score suggestions in 4 leg multi to return $11.71

NEED FINAL MATCH TO BE AROUND THE 104 POINT MARK, WITHOUT UNITAB RELEASING A MARKET, BUT...

[Plunge Penguin]

Swifts win by 24, but game total score 126 (this is extremely high for a netball game) - easy money on the total game score multi!

Finals this week:

Sydney Swifts v Adelaide Thunderbirds

Melbourne Phoenix v Melbourne Kestrels

Both Friday night, two winners play off in the final on Sunday.

For what its worth - and Unitab haven't released final markets as yet - the only of these 4 that realistically can't win are the Kestrels. Phoenix should get a 10-12 goal win in that match. Sydney and Adelaide will be closer than first glance; Adelaide has pushed them this year, and have been running back into form slowly. Would be wary of taking silly odds on Sydney here (although I did have a big lash on Adelaide to win the CBT at $3.50 earlier this year, and they were $8.50 before this round )