Greg Combet for PM???

[southee]

http://www.heraldsun.com.au/news/nation ... 6012597736

Interesting to see a former PM (Hawke) give Combet a push forward.....

I actually agree with Hawke. Gillards days are numbered and I beleive will not see out the full term.

Thoughts????

[fish]

Current Centrebet market for ALP leader at the next Federal election:

GILLARD, Julia $1.75
SHORTEN, Bill $3.25
COMBET, Greg $9.00
All others $10.00 or more

[southee]

Current Centrebet market for ALP leader at the next Federal election:

GILLARD, Julia $1.75
SHORTEN, Bill $3.25
COMBET, Greg $9.00
All others $10.00 or more

Shorten would be the one I would have money on....

[redandblack]

I see that the ABC 'Insiders' program faithfully regurgitated the wrong betting market published by Fairfax.

Hopeless.

Southee, I'll bet you a coke that Gillard lasts longer than Abbott.

Loser to shout at the next South v West game after one topples

[fish]

Now this is pure speculation, but I reckon the proposed carbon tax may end up unravelling the opposition more than the government. I'm sure that the Coalition members are not all climate change deniers and I reckon there may be internal divisions, between those who think there should be action on carbon emissions and those who don't. Time will tell I suppose.

[southee]

I see that the ABC 'Insiders' program faithfully regurgitated the wrong betting market published by Fairfax.

Hopeless.

Southee, I'll bet you a coke that Gillard lasts longer than Abbott.

Loser to shout at the next South v West game after one topples

Your on.....just needs to be diet coke for me

[redandblack]

Ditto, mate.

We can have 2 drinks and discuss Split Enz

[dedja]

[Media Park]

Combet and Shorten...

cough-UNION-cough

[Darth Vader]

Combet and Shorten...

cough-UNION-cough

neither could organise a piss up in a brewery without a shop steward

[redandblack]

Another incisive analysis from the 'no-spin zone'

[Leaping Lindner]

Prefer union to xenophobic religious right personally.

[wycbloods]

Combet and Shorten...

cough-UNION-cough

neither could organise a piss up in a brewery without a shop steward

Yeah because Combet had nothing to do with the YR@W campaign that helped remove the Howard government.

I am sure you could organise a good piss up though. Do the religious right do piss ups ?

[Squawk]

If Gillard has a "skills" weakness, it is that she is too narrow with her knowledge of portfolios and she shows a bit too much favouritism towards some, such as Education. She lacks a foreign policy bent or interest, and may also be underdone on the Treasury portfolio. What is on her side is her parliamentary performances.

People will give her time - she's had the honeymoon period and is now in to a period of consolidation. How she emerges from that in the next 6-12 months will be interesting because if, 12 months out from the next election, she is not seen internally as a viable prospect to lead the party to a winning election, the Party wont hesitate to look elsewhere and hope for the same success it had when doing the same thing with Rudd in 2006/07.

Same could also go for Abbott - he's more seasoned in the job (just) but I think he's lacking in some foresight to look ahead to bigger outcomes and objectives. Too often lately the Shadow Cabinet meets to discuss a new Govt announcement and then surfs all the airwaves it can with denouncements. They don't have to agree with much, but they do have to identify holes in govt decisions and find ways to plug them that resonate with the electorate.

[mick]

If Gillard has a "skills" weakness, it is that she is too narrow with her knowledge of portfolios and she shows a bit too much favouritism towards some, such as Education. She lacks a foreign policy bent or interest, and may also be underdone on the Treasury portfolio. What is on her side is her parliamentary performances.

People will give her time - she's had the honeymoon period and is now in to a period of consolidation. How she emerges from that in the next 6-12 months will be interesting because if, 12 months out from the next election, she is not seen internally as a viable prospect to lead the party to a winning election, the Party wont hesitate to look elsewhere and hope for the same success it had when doing the same thing with Rudd in 2006/07.

Same could also go for Abbott - he's more seasoned in the job (just) but I think he's lacking in some foresight to look ahead to bigger outcomes and objectives. Too often lately the Shadow Cabinet meets to discuss a new Govt announcement and then surfs all the airwaves it can with denouncements. They don't have to agree with much, but they do have to identify holes in govt decisions and find ways to plug them that resonate with the electorate.

Good analysis

[Sojourner]

http://www.heraldsun.com.au/news/national/bob-hawke-backs-greg-combet-for-prime-minister/story-e6frf7l6-1226012597736

Interesting to see a former PM (Hawke) give Combet a push forward.....

I actually agree with Hawke. Gillards days are numbered and I beleive will not see out the full term.

Thoughts????

Its possible, Rudd was cut when his approval rating was higher than what Gillards has been. Yet I do think that the factional bosses in the ALP would be well aware that to repeat the same scenario would only end in worse numbers than leaving Gillard in place.

Alot rides on how the current situation goes of selling the Carbon Tax to the people of Australia by Gillard, most media outlets are eating it up and putting out plenty of bile towards the ALP over the issue, conservatism sells media and this whole issue is not just a gift to Abbott but a gift to News ltd also who are not wasting any time in making mileage out of it. If there influence becomes to much and they cause a wave of anger across the community over the statements prior to the election of their not being a carbon tax then the factional leaders may feel that they have no choice but to be seen to taking some action to stem their losses - If the ALP get absolutely smashed at the next election it could well result in it taking three terms to get the Liberals out again.

As for the Liberals I would suggest that likely Turnbull is not so much the one with leadership ambitions as Joe Hockey. Hockey has been making plenty of noise about how unfair the banks are and how he is on the side of the battler and so on. One gets the impression that he is quite clearly pitching to 30% of people that swing vote and it may well be that he could in fact have the numbers if he is seen to be more of a "moderate" than Abbott if statements like the Mad Monk and so on start having any effect.

[Squawk]

Yeah, right now I think Hockey is the man waiting in the wings.

[fish]

Current Centrebet market for ALP leader at the next Federal election:

GILLARD, Julia $1.75
SHORTEN, Bill $3.25
COMBET, Greg $9.00
All others $10.00 or more

I just checked the odds and it looks like Julia has firmed as the probable Labor leader at the next Federal election:

GILLARD, Julia $1.45
SHORTEN, Bill $3.85
COMBET, Greg $8.50
All others $10.00 or more.

Meanwhile Tony has the same chance (according to the bookies and punters) of leading the Coalition at the next Federal election:

ABBOTT, Tony $1.45
TURNBULL, Malcolm $3.75
HOCKEY, Joe $6.50
All others $13.00 or more.

[fish]

I have been keeping a bit of an eye on the betting markets and Julia has weakened a liittle bit over the last few days, from $1.45 to $1.52. Maybe there is a leadership spill in the air...

The latest market for Labor leader at the next election:

GILLARD, Julia (ALP) $1.52
SHORTEN, Bill (ALP) $4.00
COMBET, Greg (ALP) $8.00
RUDD, Kevin (ALP) $9.00
ANY CANDIDATE NOT LISTED $13.00 or higher

The Coalition market is unchanged from my previous post.

[redandblack]

Thanks fish, Southee and I have a coke on this