Abbott/Liberal Govt Watch

Labor, Liberal, Greens, Democrats? Here's the place to discuss.

Re: Abbott/Liberal Govt Watch

Postby Q. » Fri May 22, 2020 6:50 pm

Josh Fraudenberg with egg on his face as Jobkeeper falls $60bil and 3 million workers short of his forecasting :shock:

I guess they could have extended it to all casuals and migrant workers after all!
User avatar
Q.
Coach
 
 
Posts: 21504
Joined: Wed Feb 13, 2008 1:16 pm
Location: El Dorado
Has liked: 947 times
Been liked: 2268 times
Grassroots Team: Houghton Districts

Re: Abbott/Liberal Govt Watch

Postby Brodlach » Fri May 22, 2020 7:14 pm

I know they have made an error but surely you can’t have a crack at them for overestimating the amount. I normally agree with your views too Q
July 11th 2012....
Brodlach wrote:Rory Laird might end up the best IMO, he is an absolute jet. He has been in great form at the Bloods
User avatar
Brodlach
Coach
 
 
Posts: 34501
Joined: Mon Jan 15, 2007 1:18 pm
Location: Unley
Has liked: 71 times
Been liked: 2415 times
Grassroots Team: Colonel Light Gardens

Re: Abbott/Liberal Govt Watch

Postby mighty_tiger_79 » Fri May 22, 2020 7:15 pm

Of course Joshy should have known better....

Sent from my SM-A520F using Tapatalk
Booooooooooo
User avatar
mighty_tiger_79
Coach
 
Posts: 47532
Joined: Tue Jan 03, 2006 7:29 pm
Location: at the TAB
Has liked: 8469 times
Been liked: 2337 times

Re: Abbott/Liberal Govt Watch

Postby Q. » Fri May 22, 2020 7:20 pm

Brodlach wrote:I know they have made an error but surely you can’t have a crack at them for overestimating the amount. I normally agree with your views too Q


$60 billion and 3 million workers kind of error? The original forecast was used to exclude casual workers who had been with their employer for under 12 month and to exclude migrant workers. It's either a deliberate over-estimate or an incompetent one.
User avatar
Q.
Coach
 
 
Posts: 21504
Joined: Wed Feb 13, 2008 1:16 pm
Location: El Dorado
Has liked: 947 times
Been liked: 2268 times
Grassroots Team: Houghton Districts

Re: Abbott/Liberal Govt Watch

Postby Jim05 » Fri May 22, 2020 7:42 pm

mighty_tiger_79 wrote:Of course Joshy should have known better....

Sent from my SM-A520F using Tapatalk
Suggestions that the form was poorly designed

In the form to be filled in by the employer, there was a box for number of employees , but some mistakenly filled in the Jobkeeper amount they expected to receive in that box. So, for instance a small business with 1 employer would have put in the figure 1500.
Treasury was quoting numbers estimated on Jobkeeper on the basis of what was submitted in the forms.
I assume this was all done electronically and went straight to Treasury.
Then, as ATO began processing payments, the discrepancies would have been identified against the employer records held by ATO.
Jim05
Coach
 
 
Posts: 41224
Joined: Wed Sep 22, 2010 9:03 pm
Has liked: 1094 times
Been liked: 2611 times
Grassroots Team: South Gawler

Re: Abbott/Liberal Govt Watch

Postby Q. » Fri May 22, 2020 7:48 pm

Jim05 wrote:
mighty_tiger_79 wrote:Of course Joshy should have known better....

Sent from my SM-A520F using Tapatalk
Suggestions that the form was poorly designed

In the form to be filled in by the employer, there was a box for number of employees , but some mistakenly filled in the Jobkeeper amount they expected to receive in that box. So, for instance a small business with 1 employer would have put in the figure 1500.
Treasury was quoting numbers estimated on Jobkeeper on the basis of what was submitted in the forms.

I assume this was all done electronically and went straight to Treasury.
Then, as ATO began processing payments, the discrepancies would have been identified against the employer records held by ATO.


This is all a lie. The $130 billion was announced and repeated well before any businesses could register any interest.

Also, 500 (businesses that apparently filled out the form incorrectly) x 1500 + $750000, not $60 billion!
User avatar
Q.
Coach
 
 
Posts: 21504
Joined: Wed Feb 13, 2008 1:16 pm
Location: El Dorado
Has liked: 947 times
Been liked: 2268 times
Grassroots Team: Houghton Districts

Re: Abbott/Liberal Govt Watch

Postby Psyber » Sat May 23, 2020 1:07 pm

Q. wrote:
Jim05 wrote:
mighty_tiger_79 wrote:Of course Joshy should have known better....

Sent from my SM-A520F using Tapatalk
Suggestions that the form was poorly designed

In the form to be filled in by the employer, there was a box for number of employees , but some mistakenly filled in the Jobkeeper amount they expected to receive in that box. So, for instance a small business with 1 employer would have put in the figure 1500.
Treasury was quoting numbers estimated on Jobkeeper on the basis of what was submitted in the forms.

I assume this was all done electronically and went straight to Treasury.
Then, as ATO began processing payments, the discrepancies would have been identified against the employer records held by ATO.


This is all a lie. The $130 billion was announced and repeated well before any businesses could register any interest.

Also, 500 (businesses that apparently filled out the form incorrectly) x 1500 + $750000, not $60 billion!

In the early stages surely everything was an estimate based on best available information and worse case scenarios. If less applications than expected have come in then a review of the budget estimates and how to use the funds is appropriate.

As the situational crisis seems to be settling cooperative thinking is diminishing, and totally oppositional politics is re-emerging in OZ just as it is in the US. I'm concerned that it will persist when the CV-19 rebound comes due to our excessive optimism, and succumbing to pressure to get pubs, sport, and electioneering, back into action rapidly.
EPIGENETICS - Lamarck was right!
User avatar
Psyber
Coach
 
 
Posts: 11701
Joined: Mon Mar 13, 2006 10:43 pm
Location: Now back in the Adelaide Hills.
Has liked: 62 times
Been liked: 250 times
Grassroots Team: Hahndorf

Re: Abbott/Liberal Govt Watch

Postby Q. » Sat May 23, 2020 2:30 pm

Psyber wrote:
Q. wrote:
Jim05 wrote:
mighty_tiger_79 wrote:Of course Joshy should have known better....

Sent from my SM-A520F using Tapatalk
Suggestions that the form was poorly designed

In the form to be filled in by the employer, there was a box for number of employees , but some mistakenly filled in the Jobkeeper amount they expected to receive in that box. So, for instance a small business with 1 employer would have put in the figure 1500.
Treasury was quoting numbers estimated on Jobkeeper on the basis of what was submitted in the forms.

I assume this was all done electronically and went straight to Treasury.
Then, as ATO began processing payments, the discrepancies would have been identified against the employer records held by ATO.


This is all a lie. The $130 billion was announced and repeated well before any businesses could register any interest.

Also, 500 (businesses that apparently filled out the form incorrectly) x 1500 + $750000, not $60 billion!

In the early stages surely everything was an estimate based on best available information and worse case scenarios. If less applications than expected have come in then a review of the budget estimates and how to use the funds is appropriate.

As the situational crisis seems to be settling cooperative thinking is diminishing, and totally oppositional politics is re-emerging in OZ just as it is in the US. I'm concerned that it will persist when the CV-19 rebound comes due to our excessive optimism, and succumbing to pressure to get pubs, sport, and electioneering, back into action rapidly.


That's fine and I hope it is appropriately redistributed, but we're talking about an error in the magnitude of 6% GDP for the period of time it was to be in place. It was stated that there was no more money above $130 billion to extend to casuals, migrant workers, universities, arts sector etc - so it's a level of incompetence that has impacted on millions and to underspend by $60 billion during an economic depression is disastrous for economic recovery.

Oppositional politics is not the problem - the problem is total ambivalence to total economic incompetence. Rupert would have wet the ******* bed if Albo had a $60 billion black hole in an economic stimulus package!
User avatar
Q.
Coach
 
 
Posts: 21504
Joined: Wed Feb 13, 2008 1:16 pm
Location: El Dorado
Has liked: 947 times
Been liked: 2268 times
Grassroots Team: Houghton Districts

Re: Abbott/Liberal Govt Watch

Postby Q. » Sat May 23, 2020 3:04 pm

Also, their figures were regarded as suspiciously innacurate from the get-go and they never released the modelling:

The points are:

1. Our Job Guarantee estimates so far, which I will release when we have double-triple and more checked them, suggest that the government needs to invest about $A34 billion to create 685 thousand jobs at minimum wage – which is close to the JobKeeper subsidy.

$A34 billion is a lot less than $A133 billion.

If we are right, then something is awfully wrong with the JobKeeper arithmetic and the statements the Treasurer has been making about it.

2. If businesses are not taking up the JobKeeper program – as today’s reports suggest – then the government will not go close to spending the $A133 billion.

Which means the stimulus will be much lower than suggested and the consequences will be very bad for Australia.

As my previous writing on the subject suggest, the stimulus is only about a half of what I think is required.

The latest data suggests it is even worse than that.

So I am waiting for the Treasury to enlighten me. As it stands, the $A133 billion figure does not make sense given other statements the Treasury have been making about the scheme.


http://bilbo.economicoutlook.net/blog/?p=44812
User avatar
Q.
Coach
 
 
Posts: 21504
Joined: Wed Feb 13, 2008 1:16 pm
Location: El Dorado
Has liked: 947 times
Been liked: 2268 times
Grassroots Team: Houghton Districts

Re: Abbott/Liberal Govt Watch

Postby Jimmy_041 » Sat May 23, 2020 4:42 pm

Josh Frydenberg needs to stop making $hit up and should get proper advice from Treasury whose experts never make a mistake

JobKeeper error sparks fight over $60B
AFR
John Kehoe Fri 22 May 2020

The federal government’s JobKeeper scheme will cost $60 billion less than forecast as the economy reopens faster than anticipated, triggering a fight between the Coalition and Labor over whether the borrowed money should be saved or spent on casual workers.

The record-breaking costing error is mainly due to the fall in COVID-19 case numbers and social distancing rules being relaxed sooner, enabling business activity to resume and bolstering the economy's resilience more than forecast by Treasury when unemployment queues surged in March.

At the time, the government was planning for a six-month ‘‘hibernation’’ of the economy.

The Australian Taxation Office discovered this week that about 3 million fewer workers than previously advised were receiving the wage subsidies, after about 1000 businesses accidentally inflated the number of their enrolled employees.

The mistake triggered a Treasury review, but no money was overpaid.

Treasury now estimates that 3.5 million people will become eligible at a cost of $70 billion over six months, almost half the 6 million workers and $130 billion previously forecast.

Labor Opposition leader Anthony Albanese immediately called for the "humiliating" underspend to be reallocated to short-term casual workers who missed out on the $1500 fortnightly wage subsidy.

But Treasurer Josh Frydenberg welcomed the lower cost, saying it was "not an invitation to go and spend more".

"What has occurred is good news for the Australian taxpayer because it is all borrowed money," Mr Frydenberg said.

"The economy has not deteriorated by as much as Treasury forecast."

Unemployment rate

Unemployment is still forecast to hit 10 per cent even though the outlook for the economy had improved since March, Treasury said.

Treasury advised the Parliament as recently as Thursday morning that the scheme was already oversubscribed at 6.5 million workers – seemingly putting it on track to blow past the $130 billion cost forecast.

But later that night errors were confirmed by the ATO and the government was informed by Treasury.


The ATO and Treasury issued a joint press release on Friday afternoon, revealing that 2.9 million eligible people had been enrolled so far. Treasury expects this to grow to 3.5 million people.

About 1000 of the 900,000 businesses enrolled in the scheme on the ATO website made errors in the online enrolment form.

The most common error was that instead of reporting the number of employees they expected to be eligible in an online box, they reported the dollar amount, $1500, of assistance they expected to receive.

"Late yesterday, the ATO and Treasury advised the government of a reporting error in estimates of the number of employees likely to access the JobKeeper program," the ATO and Treasury said.

"The ATO’s review of these forms has found that around 1000 of those businesses appear to have made significant errors when reporting the estimate of eligible employees on their enrolment form.

"For example, over 500 businesses with ‘1’ eligible employee reported a figure of ‘1500’ (which is the amount of JobKeeper payment they would expect to receive for each fortnight for that employee)."

ATO Second Commissioner Jeremy Hirschhorn said at the start of the week discrepancies were discovered between the 3 million employees with tax file numbers receiving $9 billion in payments and the 6.5 million people informally advised by business.

"We decided to investigate and we identified the difference between the two was due, almost entirely, to misunderstanding of the question of the number of employees and people filling in, for example, 1,500 instead of 1," he said.

"I stress that that was an estimate which we collected for analytical purposes only. It made not one difference to the amount we have paid, we have made no underpayments or overpayments."

The question on the form was designed very quickly to implement the unprecedented JobKeeper within one month, he said.

Shadow treasurer Jim Chalmers seized on the blunder to argue that the government could afford to extend the scheme to ineligible casual workers who had not been with their employer for 12 months.

"Another day, another shambles from a Treasurer who just can’t stop seriously stuffing up this key program," Mr Chalmers said.

"This just shows you can’t trust a hopeless government with a good idea like wage subsidies for workers.

"After all the lectures about fiscal responsibility, Scott Morrison and Josh Frydenberg have had to admit to getting their numbers wrong by $60 billion.

No wholesale changes

"For weeks they’ve been telling casuals and others that the program was full when in reality they were 3 million workers short."

Mr Frydenberg said short-term casuals employed were already eligible for the $1100 fortnightly JobSeeker payments for the unemployed.

"We're not making wholesale changes to the JobKeeper program," he said.

Ai Group said there was scope for refinements to the program, including expanding it to low-margin businesses that had not experienced the required reduction in turnover of at least 30 per cent but were under financial stress.

After the ATO administrative error was discovered, Treasury revised the economic assumptions underpinning the forecasts, partly reflecting an easing in the health restrictions.

"The difference between Treasury’s estimates at the time and the number of employees now accessing the JobKeeper program partly reflects the level and impact of health restrictions not having been as severe as expected and their imposition not having been maintained for as long as expected at the time," it said.

"This has been reflected in some improvement to the outlook for the economy since the original estimate was developed as a consequence of these and other factors.

Inherent uncertainty

"The variation in estimates also reflects the inherent uncertainty associated with estimating the take‑up of a demand-driven program in the current circumstances."

Mr Frydenberg said the ATO and Treasury had advised that the reporting error had "no consequences for JobKeeper payments that have already been made to eligible businesses as payments under the scheme".

"The JobKeeper program is now expected to support around 3.5 million Australians and remains a demand-driven program and available for businesses to enrol in at any time until its conclusion," Mr Frydenberg said.

To qualify for JobKeeper, an employer or sole trader must record or credibly forecast at least a 30 per cent decline in monthly or quarterly revenue between March 30 and September 27, compared to the same period last year.

Large businesses with a turnover of above $1 billion must record a fall in turnover of 50 per cent.

Once eligible, a business receives the $1500 a fortnight payment for each worker for six months, even if its revenue rebounds before the scheme expires in September.

Treasury will review the scheme by June and provide refinement options to the government, including a potential gradual phasing out of the program, instead of a hard stop, for all recipients on September 27.

'Messiness around the edge'

Dr Kennedy said on Thursday Treasury was monitoring the JobKeeper scheme and the review next month would also consider its interaction with the doubled JobSeeker payment of $1100 a fortnight.

"As soon as you get into targeting, either by a threshold or by a sector, you have a lot of messiness around the edge – which sectors are in, which sectors are out, just exactly how things apply," he said.

"Then, administratively, you have to be able to administer the arrangement.

"But in terms of if sectors were recovering strongly and others weren't, that would be a very relevant consideration for the review of JobKeeper that we're doing at the moment for the three months."

As of May 20, 910,055 businesses had enrolled in the JobKeeper program.

Of these, 759,654 had made claims in relation to their eligible employees and had their applications processed.

So far, $8.7 billion has been paid out covering about 2.9 million employees.

"Around 97 per cent of claims have been paid to employers within three business days of employers making the employee declaration," the ATO and Treasury said.

May 31 is the first deadline to enrol in the scheme for the full six months of payments.

The program will remain open beyond then if businesses later meet the eligibility criteria.
User avatar
Jimmy_041
Coach
 
 
Posts: 10885
Joined: Sun Nov 09, 2008 5:30 pm
Has liked: 331 times
Been liked: 550 times
Grassroots Team: McLaren

Previous

Board index   General Talk  Politics

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 2 guests