State based swings?

[Sojourner]

Considering that there was a 7% swing to Liberal in SA and a 12% swing to Liberal in Tasmania, would this suggest that it is indicative of a swing looming for Federal Labor along similar percentages?

[redandblack]

No.

[CK]

State based protest votes in both states without a doubt. SA's problems are well documented, Tasmanian ALP had been fighting some similar credibility issues for some time, and a hung parliament had been long expected.

[fisho mcspaz]

Can't see people losing too much faith in federal Labor, although I think a lot of people would prefer Julia Gillard as PM.

[Brucetiki]

I'd also expect the unions to mount an anti-Tony Abbott campaign (a vote for Abbott is a vote for Workchoices to return) , which will stifle any gains the Libs are currently getting federally.

Also look at the 97 State election and 98 Federal election - in 1997 there was a huge swing back to Labor after the 1993 debacle, yet they only gained one SA federal seat (Kingston) in 1998.

[BenchedEagle]

I'd also expect the unions to mount an anti-Tony Abbott campaign (a vote for Abbott is a vote for Workchoices to return) , which will stifle any gains the Libs are currently getting federally.

Also look at the 97 State election and 98 Federal election - in 1997 there was a huge swing back to Labor after the 1993 debacle, yet they only gained one SA federal seat (Kingston) in 1998.

The left has many ways to dis credit Abbott b4 Election. He will never get the fed Libs into power. He is unelectable, Costello would of had more of a chance than him!

[dedja]

I'd also expect the unions to mount an anti-Tony Abbott campaign (a vote for Abbott is a vote for Workchoices to return) , which will stifle any gains the Libs are currently getting federally.

Also look at the 97 State election and 98 Federal election - in 1997 there was a huge swing back to Labor after the 1993 debacle, yet they only gained one SA federal seat (Kingston) in 1998.

The left has many ways to dis credit Abbott b4 Election. He will never get the fed Libs into power. He is unelectable, Costello would of had more of a chance than him!

I think it may be simpler than that ... just wait long enough and watch him self-implode



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