Latest Newspoll

[redandblack]

Results are LNP 54 to ALP 46.

Pretty much as expected.

Is this a trend or the high-water mark?

[fish]

...and the bookies market for the next Federal election:

COALITION $1.58
LABOR $2.33

[dedja]

fairly meaningless this far out from an election ... unless Oakeshott or Windsor lose their nerve!

[mick]

With those figures the Coalition could probably preference the ALP over the Greens It was a good strategy in Victoria and prevented a Green presence in the lower house. I think the government will go the full distance. As dedja has said its a long way out anything can happen. It is a high water mark, it is impossible to imagine the ALP primary could go any lower, however such a level could be maintained.

[redandblack]

Yes, mick, it's a really interesting situation. Short-term pain for long-term gain?

Even with these figures, Gillard still leads Abbott comfortably on preferred PM, but has a big fight ahead overall.

Rudd leads her for preferred ALP leader!

Interesting times ahead.

[Leaping Lindner]

Yes, mick, it's a really interesting situation. Short-term pain for long-term gain?

Even with these figures, Gillard still leads Abbott comfortably on preferred PM, but has a big fight ahead overall.

Rudd leads her for preferred ALP leader!

Interesting times ahead.

Do you think the people who said they would vote Liberal/National at the next election realise Abbott is the PM they'd get?
After watching Q&A last night I'm voting for Mike Carlton. Best performance by anyone on Q&A ever, and that's saying something.

[cripple]

Yes, mick, it's a really interesting situation. Short-term pain for long-term gain?

Even with these figures, Gillard still leads Abbott comfortably on preferred PM, but has a big fight ahead overall.

Rudd leads her for preferred ALP leader!

Interesting times ahead.

Do you think the people who said they would vote Liberal/National at the next election realise Abbott is the PM they'd get?
After watching Q&A last night I'm voting for Mike Carlton. Best performance by anyone on Q&A ever, and that's saying something.

I am more surprised that the Greens preferences went up 2%. I would have thought a lot of people moving away from labor currently would be because of the carbon pricing/tax yet putting your preference with the greens would not change that view point.

[mick]

Yes, mick, it's a really interesting situation. Short-term pain for long-term gain?

Even with these figures, Gillard still leads Abbott comfortably on preferred PM, but has a big fight ahead overall.

Rudd leads her for preferred ALP leader!

Interesting times ahead.

Do you think the people who said they would vote Liberal/National at the next election realise Abbott is the PM they'd get?
After watching Q&A last night I'm voting for Mike Carlton. Best performance by anyone on Q&A ever, and that's saying something.

Yes I think they would, if they don't want a mining /carbon tax and not only coalition voters, ALP voters involved in the mining and coal industries. Conservative ALP voters might also change their vote on the issue of gay marriage, should the greens push the ALP in that direction. I'm not against gay marriage, I'm against the mining tax and I'm ambivalent regarding carbon tax. The mining tax will affect my personal circumstances so I'd vote for Atilla the Hun on that issue alone.

I didn't think much of Carlton, but I'm predjudiced in another direction Is Kate Ellis lightweight (no pun intended)? she is so pretty it tends to cloud my judgement, that is obviously sexist, but are very good looking female politicians at at disadvantage or advantage?

[Q.]

I didn't think much of Carlton, but I'm predjudiced in another direction Is Kate Ellis lightweight (no pun intended)? she is so pretty it tends to cloud my judgement, that is obviously sexist, but are very good looking female politicians at at disadvantage or advantage?

Given the personal attacks aimed at Gillard, I'd say a very good looking female has an advantage in this country. Sad really.

[Q.]

It's been said a lot in political commentary lately, but Labor are hopeless when it comes to 'selling' a policy to the public, and this could well be their undoing. The Carbon Tax is a good idea and the real criticism and debate should be aimed at how it will be structured.

[Leaping Lindner]

Yes, mick, it's a really interesting situation. Short-term pain for long-term gain?

Even with these figures, Gillard still leads Abbott comfortably on preferred PM, but has a big fight ahead overall.

Rudd leads her for preferred ALP leader!

Interesting times ahead.

Do you think the people who said they would vote Liberal/National at the next election realise Abbott is the PM they'd get?
After watching Q&A last night I'm voting for Mike Carlton. Best performance by anyone on Q&A ever, and that's saying something.

Yes I think they would, if they don't want a mining /carbon tax and not only coalition voters, ALP voters involved in the mining and coal industries. Conservative ALP voters might also change their vote on the issue of gay marriage, should the greens push the ALP in that direction. I'm not against gay marriage, I'm against the mining tax and I'm ambivalent regarding carbon tax. The mining tax will affect my personal circumstances so I'd vote for Atilla the Hun on that issue alone.

I didn't think much of Carlton, but I'm predjudiced in another direction Is Kate Ellis lightweight (no pun intended)? she is so pretty it tends to cloud my judgement, that is obviously sexist, but are very good looking female politicians at at disadvantage or advantage?

Her performance last night was solid and within "party lines". The NSW right will be rapt Also how much like a future leader is Joe Hockey looking? Everytime you see him he seems to grow in stature.
As for Janet Albrechtsen, move to the States. You come across as mad at that Tea Party lot you seem to admire so much. That's was were Carlton got me. He nicely quoted facts at her and made her look like the "henny penny" she is.
"43% of Tea Party members think Obama is a Muslim."

[Psyber]

It's been said a lot in political commentary lately, but Labor are hopeless when it comes to 'selling' a policy to the public, and this could well be their undoing.
The Carbon Tax is a good idea and the real criticism and debate should be aimed at how it will be structured.

I'd always assumed it was because they didn't believe the public could understand the issues, so they just give them the minimum and ask them to "trust us".
It works often enough, and may be true. But when the public realise they are being conned or jockeyed along they resent it.
The question is whether they will forget by the next election.

Some form of pollution control measure that supports changing technology and impacts on those who don't change is desirable.
I'm not convinced the ALP's models are the right ones though, and I am concerned we may focus too narrowly on Carbon and ignore other significant polluting practices.

[Bat Pad]

Yeah good comment by Carlton.

I am paraphrasing but it went something like this:

They are a bunch of loonies (refering to the Tea Party), most of them think Obama is a Muslim. They did a survey and it was 43%.

Now I'm no mathematics professor however.....

I have also tried but been unable to find this survey anywhere, if someone could post a link that would be good. Cheers

[Bat Pad]

People may start murmuring about a change in leadership for the Labor Party from this poll, but, and this may sound a little counter-intuiative, I think these kind of poll numbers may also result in a change of Liberal leadership. With Poll numbers like this for the coalition, they may start to think that they don't require an effective attacking front foot politician such as Abbott to set the government's agenda anymore who adds an element of risk to an election campaign/opposition (the examples why being too many to number here), but a slow and steady, low risk leader who can simply give Labor enough rope to hang themselves (the examples why being too many to number here).

Step on down Joe Hockey.

[redandblack]

I think that's a good analysis, BP.

I read a big headlline on the ABC website today that the Conservative governemnt in Britain are going to bring in a carbon price. The story seems to have disappeared (?!!) quickly, but if true, would be a massive blow to Abbott?

Hockey would be a much less divisive leader, so I think you're analysis is very reasonable.

[Leaping Lindner]

I think that's a good analysis, BP.

I read a big headlline on the ABC website today that the Conservative governemnt in Britain are going to bring in a carbon price. The story seems to have disappeared (?!!) quickly, but if true, would be a massive blow to Abbott?

Hockey would be a much less divisive leader, so I think you're analysis is very reasonable.

Someone needs to tell Abbott and his media mates that the sky won't be falling in on us anytime soon.......

A European Union climate expert has described Australian opposition to a carbon tax as bizarre, diplomatically pointing out Britain's Conservatives were more cooperative in opposition.

Jill Duggan, who managed Britain's initial emissions trading scheme (ETS), said there was an incorrect perception that Australia would be going it alone if it put a price on carbon.

"The thing that struck me is how the debate has changed here and also that wide perception that I keep hearing that Australia shouldn't go first," she told reporters in Canberra on Tuesday.

"Coming from Europe, that sounds slightly bizarre because there are 30 countries in Europe that have had a carbon price ... since the beginning of 2005."

While reluctant to comment on Opposition Leader Tony Abbott's campaign against a carbon tax, Ms Duggan pointed out how the British Conservative Party was enthusiastic about an ETS when in opposition.

"During the last Labour government, it wasn't Conservatives saying, `You shouldn't be doing this,'" she said.

"They said, `You should be doing more, you should be doing it faster.'"

Ms Duggan also dismissed suggestions that a carbon price would dramatically push up electricity prices, arguing higher oil and commodity prices accounted for three-quarters of the 40 per cent increase in power bills during the first year of an ETS in the UK.

Job losses were also minimal, with the European ETS creating service-sector jobs in the UK.

"I don't think we can think of any jobs losses that are the direct result of carbon policy," Ms Duggan said

http://au.news.yahoo.com/a/-/latest/897 ... re-expert/

[redden whites]

Step on down Joe Hockey.

Poor Joe, He would still be after that last run at the leadership that resulted in total public humiliation

[Sojourner]

Results are LNP 54 to ALP 46.

Pretty much as expected.

Is this a trend or the high-water mark?

Think it will come back to a closer marker before the next election, people will likely judge Gillard on what she achieves over the next 2 1/2 years, One would suggest that the hard yards would be done in the first year, then budget type constraints will likely be loosened up to enable more projects to get underway to win the confidence of the public.

Nick Xenephon has a bill up re foreign ownership of land in Australia by foreign powers, rumours are that Labor are planning to reject it, I would suggest that they likely will take it on board and win back some of the middle ground in the process by being seen to be strong on issues that get plenty of air time on the media,

[redandblack]

Huge turnaround in the latest Newspoll.

Labor 51, LNP 49.

Abbott approval way down.

[GWW]

The next election is 2 or so years away, but another hung parliament must be a definite possibility.