Election - 20th March 2010

[Gozu]

My rule of thumb is to try and avoid The Advertiser's website during election campaigns. I'll never forget all the pro-WorkChoices/anti-Rudd articles/un-moderated far-right comments on there once the federal election had been called in '07. It was so over the top even by The Advertiser's appalling standards.

In regards to this state election the few times I've visited it it doesn't seem to have been too bad (bar all the Chantelois rubbish in the lead up to it) but for example I've only visted their website I think once in the last 3-4 days.

Also I've lost a lot of respect for Hendrik Gout from The Independent Weekly who IMO over the past few months has started to turn into a partisan hack who might be letting his personal political bias taint his previously measured and rational articles. His tabloid like obsession with the Chantelois thing has got the better of him and the few pieces he's done/reproduced for Crikey have been roundly ridiculed (as has Crikey itself for starting to go down a bit more mainstream tabloid route) by readers. I saw Gout even had a big interview with that Rick Phillips of all people last week. Didn't even bother reading it and I understand he's also trying to lift the papers readership with crap like that but it will be hard for me to ever take that paper seriously again now.

[Squawk]

My rule of thumb is to try and avoid The Advertiser's website during election campaigns.

Gozu - that must leave you with a bit of extra time (ie 2-3 minutes a day ) - how about assessing the poll results above, allocating party preferences (thanks for that link!) and seeing if the SA Footy poll outcome matches the actual election outcome?

For example, would Green preferences above be enough to get Labor over the line, even with Labor having a lower "primary" vote from SA Footy voters?

What is the (voting )swing shown by SA Footy voters?

What would the undecided voters need to cast on polling day to get Labor or Liberal over the line?

[redandblack]

My best calculation on the above figures is a 51.5 to 48.5 split in favour of the Liberal Party.

It could be 52/48.

[Gozu]

My rule of thumb is to try and avoid The Advertiser's website during election campaigns.

Gozu - that must leave you with a bit of extra time (ie 2-3 minutes a day ) - how about assessing the poll results above, allocating party preferences (thanks for that link!) and seeing if the SA Footy poll outcome matches the actual election outcome?

For example, would Green preferences above be enough to get Labor over the line, even with Labor having a lower "primary" vote from SA Footy voters?

What is the (voting )swing shown by SA Footy voters?

What would the undecided voters need to cast on polling day to get Labor or Liberal over the line?

Hi Squawk, nah I'm not touching those SA Footy poll results R&B seems to have done a good job with them though. I still can't see how the Libs can win the election though as I've heard (whether true or not) the big swings towards them are coming in their own seats and safe Labor seats. I could see the Libs ending up with the majority of the vote but still not winning due to not getting enough seats off of Labor.

[Dog_ger]

I can never vote for a woman.

You must be joking...

How old are you..?

Should also have

1. : age

2. : married/single/never loved

3. : I miss my Mum. {No Woman is like your mum}

4. : USA voted for a Black Man B4 a Woman.

[Brucetiki]

Hi Squawk, nah I'm not touching those SA Footy poll results R&B seems to have done a good job with them though. I still can't see how the Libs can win the election though as I've heard (whether true or not) the big swings towards them are coming in their own seats and safe Labor seats. I could see the Libs ending up with the majority of the vote but still not winning due to not getting enough seats off of Labor.

That's what I'm seeing as well. The opinion polls support this with the Libs looking unlikely to regain Bright and Newland, and I can't see every Labor marginal going to Liberal. In fact, I reckon Labor are a chance to regain Mitchell (held by Kris Hanna). So far the only seat certain to go back to the Libs is Morialta (and the Advertiser is basing a Liberal victory on this poll alone).

[am Bays]

Labor is on the nose here in Mitchell, Hanna will get up on preferences. No-one I've spoken to has mentioned Labor as a first preference which is what he needs to counteract the preferences Hanna will get.

FWIW I can't see the Liberals winning enough seats to form government even with the help of independants. Just too big a gap too make up in the seats that need to fall to give them a majority because of the lack of a uniform swing. Could well get a majority on a two party preferred basis but that wont transfer to seats.. Can see them getting two or three on the night

We'll go back to the historical status quo in SA, one Party around 23-25 seats, another 20-22 with two or three independants.

[Gozu]

William Bowe from Poll Bludger predicts Labor being returned with a one seat majority:

http://blogs.crikey.com.au/pollbludger/ ... esswork-2/

[Brucetiki]

AdelaideNow have done an article on some of the best satire from this campaign (including the bunker YouTube clip I put up earlier) - http://www.adelaidenow.com.au/news/in-d ... 5842308908

[Brucetiki]

Labor is on the nose here in Mitchell, Hanna will get up on preferences. No-one I've spoken to has mentioned Labor as a first preference which is what he needs to counteract the preferences Hanna will get.

Well, according to the latest opinion poll, Labor may in fact pinch Mitchell - http://www.adelaidenow.com.au/news/in-d ... 5842550059

One thing's for sure Saturday night will be interesting viewing - ABC1 will be having their comprehensive coverage of the state election starting at 6:30pm tomorrow night.

[am Bays]

Labor is on the nose here in Mitchell, Hanna will get up on preferences. No-one I've spoken to has mentioned Labor as a first preference which is what he needs to counteract the preferences Hanna will get.

Well, according to the latest opinion poll, Labor may in fact pinch Mitchell - http://www.adelaidenow.com.au/news/in-d ... 5842550059

One thing's for sure Saturday night will be interesting viewing - ABC1 will be having their comprehensive coverage of the state election starting at 6:30pm tomorrow night.

Soon as I saw that this morning BT, I thought of you....

[fisho mcspaz]

Labor is on the nose here in Mitchell, Hanna will get up on preferences. No-one I've spoken to has mentioned Labor as a first preference which is what he needs to counteract the preferences Hanna will get.

Well, according to the latest opinion poll, Labor may in fact pinch Mitchell - http://www.adelaidenow.com.au/news/in-d ... 5842550059

One thing's for sure Saturday night will be interesting viewing - ABC1 will be having their comprehensive coverage of the state election starting at 6:30pm tomorrow night.

Having a hard time making up my mind who to vote for in Mitchell today (after putting Greens at No. 1, that is) - I can't in good faith vote Labor because I think they've procrastinated enough about the Murray and our health system - the state of Flinders Med is absolutely appalling - and I won't vote Liberal because I'm a left-winger. I don't trust Kris Hanna particularly and I especially don't like his endorsement by Nick Xenophon, but I'll probably put him second after Greens just because an independent candidate exemplifies the concept of a democratic government. (At least that is what I'm telling myself, he'll probably join the Libs after today.)

Anyway, fingers crossed for Gamers 4 Croydon in the Upper House.

[fisho mcspaz]

VOTE BELOW THE LINE - KEEP TREVOR GRACE OUT OF PARLIAMENT!

[Wedgie]

Adelaide Now has a poll where you also put in your postcode and it tells you what others from your postcode voted on their site.

My postcode (5159): Liberal 60% Labour 25%

I knew I lived in a good area! If only we can get rid of that feral riff raff that makes up a quarter of the suburb.

[redandblack]

That's a low Liberal vote for an Adelaide Now poll

[fish]

With the polls now closed and counting commenced I'd like to wish all the candidates the best of luck - good on you for running and hope it was worth it.

[Thiele]

Question: Exit poll what does it mean?

[Wedgie]

Question: Exit poll what does it mean?

They ask people as they leave the voting booths who they voted for.
(ie poll them as they exit - Exit Poll)

Unless its at a firestation, then its how they get from the 1st floor to the ground floor in a hurry.

[Brucetiki]

Early polls have shown at least 1 seat going to the Liberals, but Light looking like it's staying Labor.

According to Sky News

Labor 4
Liberals 4
Others 0

[Brucetiki]

Labor 3
Liberal 6
Others 0