Election - 20th March 2010

[Wedgie]

Looks like a swing of about 8% here against Labor and 13% against the same party in Tassy.

[Hondo]

It seems a straight reversal of the swing Labor got in 2006 - then they got 7.7% after getting through on a knife edge in 2002.

[Wedgie]

Dunno mate, it seems all over the place like a mad woman's custard, Labor have had a 2% swing to them in a couple of seats but Lomax-Smith has had a swing of 13% against her, she's gone.
Looking at the swing overall I'd agree with your point but its incredibly patchy.

[Wedgie]

Current state of play:

Labor 24
Liberal 18
Other 3
Undecided 2

[Hondo]

Yes, the swing is all over the place. I had only just finished reading about the 2006 election before I saw this thread so linked the 2 swing %'s. My simplistic overall view is that things are returning to normal after Labor's huge majority in 2006.

The problem for the Libs is that the 8% swing isn't converting into enough seats for them to win.

Lomax-Smith does look gone. So does the RAH on the current site and a new CBD Sports Stadium.

[Wedgie]

Anyone know the 2 party preferred result at the moment?
I know the overall first preferences are:
Liberal 41.4
Labor 38

[StrayDog]

Dunno mate, it seems all over the place like a mad woman's custard,

Yeah, not only across the board but in neighbouring electorates in some cases.

[Hondo]

It sounds like the swing has been strongest in the Western suburbs and much smaller in the North Eastern suburbs and they are at a loss to explain why.

[fisho mcspaz]

Very surprised to see Lomax-Smith lose her seat. Thought the Libs might pick up Norwood but not by that much.

[Thiele]

Looks like Maywald is gone

[Interceptor]

14.2% swing against Atkinson, but he'll win the seat comfortably

[Gozu]

I still can't see how the Libs can win the election though as I've heard (whether true or not) the big swings towards them are coming in their own seats and safe Labor seats.

Oh hello.

[Gozu]

14.2% swing against Atkinson, but he'll win the seat comfortably

That's why I voted G4C and preferenced the Libs, take that Mick!

[redandblack]

That's about the par swing in the western suburbs, so I don't think you made much difference, mate

[Dogwatcher]

Given it seems the election is over, I can say a little more on Maywald.
Sad to see her go, she has worked hard for her electorate.
However, it seems the foibles of the Labor connection have hit her hard.
I don't think she lost because of being a bad member but more because it was a protest vote.
I did predict, I think about two years ago on this site, that she was in trouble.
She faced a strong campaign. However, from my understanding, a lot of money went to supporting the Libs campaign that may previously have been allocated to her.
To me, hearing that was the a major sign she was in trouble.
A further sign was when I heard Tim Whetstone had been mobbed when he went to the Waikerie polling booth this morning. Waikerie is her home town.
Now...to the future for Chaffey.
Who will be the water minister? Who do our local people turn to now.
Looking at the spread of seats, Labor's retained a mostly city situation.
Caica, given he's the Ag Minister (which crosses into water a little), could be the man.
However, I believe that Karlene's loss is going to have a massive impact on politics in this region and that will play havoc for a while to come locally.


As for Lomax Smith - the ongoing debate and her inability to close down the teachers pay debacle has cost her dearly.

[Dogwatcher]

I might also add that the swing against Karlene was very symtopmatic of the protest vote that seems to have been made against Labor across the state.

She and J-Lo were the victims of that vote. Others should take note.

[Hondo]

The safer the seat (either way) the bigger the swing it looks.

Protest vote against Labor and/or a reveral of a protest vote against the Liberals last time? If so, how close are the Liberals really and will Rann take Labor into the next election? Time will tell.

[southee]

Very surprised to see Lomax-Smith lose her seat. Thought the Libs might pick up Norwood but not by that much.

This is wonderful news....Im still smiling and drinking beer ....enjoying this moment!!!

[southee]

That's about the par swing in the western suburbs, so I don't think you made much difference, mate

....and Im bias???

[Dogwatcher]

Very surprised to see Lomax-Smith lose her seat. Thought the Libs might pick up Norwood but not by that much.

This is wonderful news....Im still smiling and drinking beer ....enjoying this moment!!!

I'm predicting you are a teacher.
I personally know a few who are also gloating over this loss.