Federal Election Predictions

[am Bays]

Sojourner, you're a thoughtful poster on a number of topics and more strength to you, but politics obviously isn't one of your strong points based on that post.

No political party ever 'lets' the other mob govern. Full stop.

aB, because of the senate position, it's always likely that there will be a DD, but I'm not convinced that will be a certainty. I'll have a think about it and respond to your good question.

My thoughts are that with the two larger parties having to negotiate with the minor parties to get their legislation through in both houses in partiular the Senate the chances of blocked legislation is obviously much higher this when both the Liberals and ALP wll ahve to potentially risk alienating their traditional supporter bases to get legislation through.

The advantage of a DD is that it traditionally favours the larger parties as the quota required is usually 8% compared to 16% of the vote. So the last two quotas can easily go to the larger party rather than one of the smaller ones as they have a greater %age of the overall Senate vote.

However with the Green Sitting on 12 % vote in the Senate not sure if the major parties would be prepare to risk giving the Greens 12 senators.

The DD options is preferable when the third parties vote is below 10 %

I think I've got that right...

[dedja]

A couple of random points.

1 Labor currently have 50.7% of the 2PP vote, If that holds up, I look forward to the comments from the SA Lib supporters about democracy

2 Postal votes will be crucial. These usually favor LibNP, but sitting members can also be favoured.

Seems like the Mad Monk can't add up ... apparently 450,000 more people voted for the Coalition than Labor

So either he subscribes to first past the post or 2 party prefered ... can't have it both ways.

[redandblack]

It appears that Boothby is now in some doubt, as is Wilkie in Denison.

This is going to come right down to the last few votes in the last few seats.

Watch for Brisbane, Boothby, Hasluck.

If the ALP finish with 73 or less (inc Green), I think Abbott will govern.

If the ALP finish with 74 (inc Green), I think Gillard will govern.

Who knows??????????

[CK]

It appears that Boothby is now in some doubt, as is Wilkie in Denison.

This is going to come right down to the last few votes in the last few seats.

Watch for Brisbane, Boothby, Hasluck.

If the ALP finish with 73 or less (inc Green), I think Abbott will govern.

If the ALP finish with 74 (inc Green), I think Gillard will govern.

Who knows??????????

In the immortal words of Mike Williamson, I tipped this, both pre-count and last night

(obviously a long way to go, still, though)

[Jimmy_041]

Sojourner, you're a thoughtful poster on a number of topics and more strength to you, but politics obviously isn't one of your strong points based on that post.

No political party ever 'lets' the other mob govern. Full stop.

aB, because of the senate position, it's always likely that there will be a DD, but I'm not convinced that will be a certainty. I'll have a think about it and respond to your good question.

I have deliberately stayed away from this election but 3 points:

1. I recall many of you Labor people saying the Liberals were irrelevant as a political party
2. Also that nobody would even consider electing Tony Abbott
3. Still playing the man I see R&B Why cant you just say you just dont agree? Maybe the Liberals might do what he says - who ever annointed you as the fountain of political knowledge?

[dedja]

2. Also that nobody would even consider electing Tony Abbott

They didn't ... and also didn't elect Labor under Julia Gillard.

That's why we're hung like a horse.

[Jimmy_041]

Looks like around 50% did deja

PS: we still cant get rid of that damn poodle

[dedja]

Don't rub it in ... 3 more years of Poodle.

Mia Hanshin would have got him this time but no, a relatively unknown academic will do the job they thought.

Hang on, maybe we should white ant him from within the party and wait for the Karma bus to hit.

Know anyone who could help us?

[Media Park]

Mia would beat Pyne for one reason:

mia handshin.jpg (14.77 KiB) Viewed 437 times

She doesn't look like a poodle...

[Psyber]

A couple of random points.
1 Labor currently have 50.7% of the 2PP vote, If that holds up, I look forward to the comments from the SA Lib supporters about democracy
2 Postal votes will be crucial. These usually favor LibNP, but sitting members can also be favoured.

1. That's Labor AND the Greens. No single party won a majority of either seats or votes. [Still spinning R&B?]
Here is clarification: http://au.news.yahoo.com/election/a/-/a ... ted-votes/

The coalition out polled Labor on the primary vote by about 400,000 votes but fell behind the government 49.3 to 50.69 per cent after the distribution of preferences.

Meanwhile, support the farmers and Australian food independence - Bob Katter for PM.

I really dread to think what a Labor left and Greens coalition would do the the economy and our power bills.
However, both the Greens and the Democrats seem to promote a better carbon tax policy, than the ALP did.

[FattyLumpkin]

Just been on the AEC site and scrolling through the different booths. Found it fascinating that the Greens outpolled Labor in a number of booths which could set up an interesting State Election up these parts (Qld)

[FattyLumpkin]

One more observation - I really enjoyed the ABC last night with Smith & Minchin. They behaved, obviously got on ok, with no petty point scoring which was very evident whenever the coverage crossed to the other tossers (the NSW senator & the AWU guy for example).

[dedja]

Rudd government of 2010 worse then Whitlam's in 1975?

Not sure, but I certainly don't want 8 long years of Abbott like we had with Fraser.

[dedja]

One more observation - I really enjoyed the ABC last night with Smith & Minchin. They behaved, obviously got on ok, with no petty point scoring which was very evident whenever the coverage crossed to the other tossers (the NSW senator & the AWU guy for example).

No contest ... always ABC for mine. No-one is better than Antony Green.

[Sojourner]

Interesting also that there was a large swing to Labor in SA, yet in the Senate of SA the last senate seat went to the Liberals thus electing three Liberal senators from SA on the back of Family First preferencing, so although Family First did not win they clearly like the Greens have had some influence in the outcome.

[Leaping Lindner]

Rudd government of 2010 worse then Whitlam's in 1975?

Not sure, but I certainly don't want 8 long years of Abbott like we had with Fraser.

Some to consider in my lifetime....

Mc Mahon 72 - Tired old men still looking for reds under the bed whilst the rest of the world had discovered this wonderful thing called the 1970s.
Fraser 80-83 - A government seemingly obssessed with keeping inflation low whilst unemployment rose higher and higher.
Keating 93 - Three years of cheap shots and abusing opponents isnt governing the country in my opinion.
Howard's first term is one I personally don't look back on as a highwater mark of Australian Politics either. And according to the 1998 popular vote neither did a lot of others.

[redandblack]

Jimmy, I'm as entitled to my opinion as anyone else is to theirs, so nobody has appointed me as the fountain of political knowledge except you. If I've offended sojourner, I apologise to him, but I think I get as good as I give. Rephrasing then, sojourner, I vehemently disagree with your reasoning

As for Psyber's 'still spinning, R & B' statement, I was merely stating the psephological truth. There's no 'spin' there, Psyber, just the political fact that the ALP has over 50% of the 2PP vote. That's fact and not 'spin'. If you would like me to quote sources, let me know, there's thousands, starting with Malcolm Mackerras and Antony Green.

I am totally sure that amBays, CK and the other political observers on here would back me up 100% on that.

[dedja]

Rudd government of 2010 worse then Whitlam's in 1975?

Not sure, but I certainly don't want 8 long years of Abbott like we had with Fraser.

Some to consider in my lifetime....

Mc Mahon 72 - Tired old men still looking for reds under the bed whilst the rest of the world had discovered this wonderful thing called the 1970s.
Fraser 80-83 - A government seemingly obssessed with keeping inflation low whilst unemployment rose higher and higher.
Keating 93 - Three years of cheap shots and abusing opponents isnt governing the country in my opinion.
Howard's first term is one I personally don't look back on as a highwater mark of Australian Politics either. And according to the 1998 popular vote neither did a lot of others.

Agree with most of that but still think Whitlam and Rudd top the list.

[redandblack]

Whatever we might think of various bad governments, I can't believe that anyone would seriously put the Rudd govt in their list.

Unemployment low, inflation under control, interest rates OK, only country in the world to get through the GFC in good nick.

It might not necessarily have been the best government ever, but it's hardly remotely near the worst.

[dedja]

That's fine ... how do you explain:

- the most popular PM for ages being kicked out by his own party
- the coalition being a shambles 9 months ago to recover so spectactularly in such a short period
- the way people voted yesterday

Must have been something in it?

I dress slightly to the left and I can see it ...