How long before Vickie Chapman challenges Isobel Redmond?

[Gozu]

The bigger question for me is, how long before Mike Rann moves aside or is challenged? After 8 years in opposition as leader and now 8 years and counting as Premier, I can see a succession plan coming. Timing likely to be 18-24 months out, but he likes records so without knowing the time served records of all past premiers off the top of my head, I think he will want to position himself as close as possible to Tom Playford who I thought was our longest serving Premier?

Leadership candidates would be Weatherill (Left) and Hill (Right), with Caica (Left) also a future potential leader IMHO. With J-Lo gone, no obvious female Leader springs to mind. Of course, Leadership potential doesn't align to Factional contenders and in the order of precedence, the problem is that there isn't a lot of public appeal for the likes of Foley (2), Holloway (3), Conlon (4) or Atkinson (5). Nor Wright (7). Hill is at 6 and Weatherill 9. (J-Lo was at 8, Karlene at 10). Rankine, Caica, Gago, Koutsantonis and O'Brien run out spots 11-15 consecutively.

At least 2 new Ministers need to be appointed and women will have a strong show. I reckon Portolesi will get one gig if she wins, and another candidate would be Fox. However, John Rau will surely be knocking on the door, and the Factional balance needs to be struck. Maybe Gozu can shed some light on the factional alliances of these people?

The final consideration is - do all current Ministers survive? IMHO, Wright, Rankine and Gago are in the most perilous positions.

As for Chapman, she would be foolish to challenge again. Whether she can help herself or not is another question altogether.

I'd be surprised if Rann lasts more than another 12 months. Labor won tonight in spite of him not because of him. Also I wouldn't be surprised if the Chantelois/Rick Phillips duo keep going with their crap but with less regularity. I believe Hill is unaligned and have heard is supposedly not well liked inside the party too so maybe he could be ruled out. I wouldn't have a clue on the factional alliances of Portolesi, Fox or Rau. I couldn't see anyone from the Left getting up and think Foley might get it. General Atkinson?

[CK]

Playford was 26 years, 125 days. I think even the current Premier would concede this record as being beyond him, or indeed, anybody. A record that will never be broken.

Don Dunstan, on the other hand, was a total of nine years, 214 days - so roughly another one year and eight months required by Mr Rann to take that record, if he is so inclined.

On the topic itself, I can’t see Hill getting it for a range of reasons. As Squawk mentioned, too many of the older Ministers will be seen as tainted, no matter what they have achieved, individually or collectively. Can safely count Tom Koutsantonis out of calculations also. Rankine and Gago simply haven’t been strong enough performers, not strong enough media personalities. This rules out nearly all but Weatherill, Caica, and one i’ll throw out of total left field.

If she holds Bright, then I could see, whether it be in the next 18 months or four years, a credible push from some within the party for Chloe Fox to be put forward as a candidate. I know a number on here will oppose that, but I reckon there is a real x-factor with her that can resonate with the broader public. Not known for real gaffes, seems to put her head down and get on with it and could present a credible female alternative to Isobel Redmond at the next poll. All depends on whether she has these aspirations after the birth of her first child shortly, but I can think of a lot worse.

If Vickie Chapman genuinely has the party at heart, she will not challenge Isobel Redmond, as the electorate has clearly indicated that a large proportion of them felt she was ready. The task will be harder with someone whose own party has rejected her attempts twice.

[Dogwatcher]

To be honest Maywald is better than the others an impossible job but she made her own choice.

No doubt about that.

[Brucetiki]

Playford was 26 years, 125 days. I think even the current Premier would concede this record as being beyond him, or indeed, anybody. A record that will never be broken.

Don Dunstan, on the other hand, was a total of nine years, 214 days - so roughly another one year and eight months required by Mr Rann to take that record, if he is so inclined.

On the topic itself, I can’t see Hill getting it for a range of reasons. As Squawk mentioned, too many of the older Ministers will be seen as tainted, no matter what they have achieved, individually or collectively. Can safely count Tom Koutsantonis out of calculations also. Rankine and Gago simply haven’t been strong enough performers, not strong enough media personalities. This rules out nearly all but Weatherill, Caica, and one i’ll throw out of total left field.

If she holds Bright, then I could see, whether it be in the next 18 months or four years, a credible push from some within the party for Chloe Fox to be put forward as a candidate. I know a number on here will oppose that, but I reckon there is a real x-factor with her that can resonate with the broader public. Not known for real gaffes, seems to put her head down and get on with it and could present a credible female alternative to Isobel Redmond at the next poll. All depends on whether she has these aspirations after the birth of her first child shortly, but I can think of a lot worse.

If Vickie Chapman genuinely has the party at heart, she will not challenge Isobel Redmond, as the electorate has clearly indicated that a large proportion of them felt she was ready. The task will be harder with someone whose own party has rejected her attempts twice.

Gago's in the Upper House too , so I don't think she can be Premier from there.

[Jimmy_041]

If she does, she'll be getting an earful from me

I will let you all know if its on

I thought you were not a party member Jimmy? Why would you give a ****?

I dont think I have ever said I wasn't a party member, but, also, you dont have to be a member to have a say? I'm in Bragg

Because I do give a **** - we have to put up with 4 more years of this crud - I dont want another 8

[fish]

My mail is that Vickie will challenge within the year after the election.

[fisho mcspaz]

I think Vickie is a robot planted by Labor and activated at inopportune intervals. Only explanation I can possibly come up with for her challenging for leadership. She'll never get elected leader, she'll only cause trouble.

[Jimmy_041]

Totally agree fisho

Maybe she planted the dodgy docs as well - its all making sense now........................