The 2007 Budget - let the election campaign begin

[PhilG]

..

[heater31]

*Budget surplus of $10.6 billion

What was the surplus last financial year, someone?

one percent of GDP like it has been for the last few budgets as Mr Costello informed me when i flicked over to the budget wrap on ABC

That doesn't tell me anything, Heater. Sorry.

well yes it does it is 1% of GDP all you need to do is find out the GDP figure for last year and take out 1% of that. so looking at the ABS website GDP had a 2.4% growth last year so the budget surplus has risen also 2.4%

Which translates to how much money? That's what I want to know and you're chucking useless percentages at me!

You do the Math,

well -2.4% of 10.6 Billion equals last years surplus. I did the hard yards of finding out the GDP growth and I can't be arsed putting it into a calculator

[mick]

I saw Wayne Swan the other night after the Budget.....who would trust this man with our country's finances whilst taking orders from comrade Gillard and her mates on the socialist left ? Yep let's sacrifice our economic prosperity, in the name of some illusory moral superiority. I still remember that lying bastard Keating defeated hewson and the GST but raised taxes straight after the '93 election, yeah and the 17% interest rates he was responsible in the late 1980s. On the weekend before the budget I was with a fairly mixed group of people, all employed, aspirational or self funded retirees, while most think Mr Rudd is the best thing Labor has come up with in years, consensus was if it ain't broke why change it. I'm going out on a limb here, I'm predicting a comfortable win for the coalition in December

[Squawk]

All right honourable members (?) of SAFooty

let the debate begin........

In a snapshot....

Treasurer delivers an election year budget aimed at the battlers, the elderly and middle Australia

Budget surplus of $10.6 billion - pretty good but could be better$31.5 billion in tax cuts over four years
Low income tax offset to increase to $750 per year - good
40 per cent threshold to rise to $80,000 from July 2008 - compensates for bracket creep
$22.3 billion over five years from 2009-10 for road and rail infrastructure - most will go to the eastern seaboard so not much benefit likely to be seen in SA
Child care benefit to increase by 10 per cent. Very good (and I am a DINK)
Doubling of rebates for household solar panels to $8000 - regardless of whether this restoring the previous rebate or not, is a real incentive to us all to think about it seriously - for the hip pocket and for the environment.
$10 billion over 10 years to safeguard water supply - is this enough?
$5 billion grant for universities - great initiative
$3.5 billion to promote 'flexibility and diversity' in higher education sounds warm and fuzzy to me - what does it really mean?
$6.1 billion over 10 years for defence personnel recruitment and retention - change foreign policy and we wont need this. The Swiss model is a good benchmark to start with. Not gonna happen so lets move on from Iraq and Afghanistan and worry about Zimbabwe for a change.



http://www.theage.com.au/articles/2007/05/08/1178390301146.html

Would like to see the following:

Increase of superannuation guarantee from 9% to 12% with tax cuts replaced by a requirement for everyone to put 3% themselves into Superannuation compulsorily. We have an ageing population and should be saving for our own futures as well rather than wasting $17 a week on petty expenditure. $17 x 52 weeks x 40 years of employment is far better for the individual and for super funds to have more capital to invest in enterprise.

One-off payments to local governments to subsidise rate revenue or provide the ability for capital investment at a community level.

Reduced taxes elsewhere - eg departure tax for Australian citizens abolished; petrol taxes; those type of things. Everyone will always groan about income tax so I think no matter what the level, leave it where it is and direct the income back to individuals via other means. For example, reduced waiting times for public dentists, public hospital surgery (eg knee recos). If the Feds start doing that they will expose state governments for "all talk and no results".

More money for the ABC to produce more Aussie programs and better program outcomes - eg would leave to see media watch run for an hour each week instead of 15 minutes! Would love to see a 1 hour ABC news bulletin - half our for national/overseas and half hour for state news and bring back the locally produced sports bulletin! Bring in Friday night telecasts of SANFL games! More money for ABC radio and the ABC website!

Overall, the budget looks pretty good but as always, room for further improvement.

[redandblack]

I saw Wayne Swan the other night after the Budget.....who would trust this man with our country's finances whilst taking orders from comrade Gillard and her mates on the socialist left ? Yep let's sacrifice our economic prosperity, in the name of some illusory moral superiority. I still remember that lying bastard Keating defeated hewson and the GST but raised taxes straight after the '93 election, yeah and the 17% interest rates he was responsible in the late 1980s. On the weekend before the budget I was with a fairly mixed group of people, all employed, aspirational or self funded retirees, while most think Mr Rudd is the best thing Labor has come up with in years, consensus was if it ain't broke why change it. I'm going out on a limb here, I'm predicting a comfortable win for the coalition in December

That's come as a bit of a shock, Mick

[Psyber]

All right honourable members (?) of SAFooty

let the debate begin........

In a snapshot.....................................................................

$6.1 billion over 10 years for defence personnel recruitment and retention - change foreign policy and we wont need this. The Swiss model is a good benchmark to start with. Not gonna happen so lets move on from Iraq and Afghanistan and worry about Zimbabwe for a change.

I worry just a little that one of these days our near neighbours Indonesia are going to look at our mineral resources and start calling us "South Irian" and that since they still have some of the world's dwindling oil supplies American industry will want the USA to forget about li'l ol' ANZUS.

At that point some nice rockets and a neutron bomb or two might prove useful. I like Neutron Bombs - they take out all the nasty people without wrecking the infrastructure or the art works. It was very sensible of the French to develop them.

There are other powers around Europe with a vested interest in supporting Swiss neutrality, but I don't think it applies around here.

[heater31]

At that point some nice rockets and a neutron bomb or two might prove useful. I like Neutron Bombs - they take out all the nasty people without wrecking the infrastructure or the art works. It was very sensible of the French to develop them.

Could be a good idea, sends the Message to not F**k with us or we will f**k you up

[mick]

A masterful performance by Rudd in his right of reply speech. His fiscally responsible and conservative approach to the budget, is one of the reasons Howard is worried. However in the same frame, apart from the delectable Kate Ellis, sits comrade Gillard, part of the left faction that put Mr Rudd where he is today, when and if there's a real Labor budget in office how much influence will the left faction have? That's what worries me.

[Dogwatcher]

Coalition back favourite after Rudd response!

Two months after Kevin Rudd rode into favourite with Centrebet on the back of a sustained betting push, the Prime Minister has regained the fancied position after a seemingly underwhelming reponse to the Coalition’s budget from the Labor leader.

The Treasurer’s open-purse Budget aimed squarely at medium and lower-income households and moderate achievers at both ends of the scale had seen the Coalition firm from $1.95 to $1.90 on Centrebet, while Labor’s price had drifted from $1.77 to $1.87!

“Now the Coalition is basking in the Budget sunlight, and the positive reception granted by the country’s senior commentators and analysts left Mr Rudd with virtually nowhere to go, and effectively took the air out of his educational and technology tyres,” Centrebet’s Neil Evans said.

“After we announced the Rudd honeymoon was over, the money is continuing to arrive for the government, and the market has turned substantially – the Coalition has regained Centrebet favouritism at $1.87, with Labor a narrow outsider at $1.90.” Mr Howard has also been backed in to $1.18 to hold his Sydney seat of Bennelong, while high-profile Labor candidate Maxine McKew has drifted further to $4.25!

The following is a Centrebet Federal Election Timeline: Labor v Coalition

Early Dec: (Mr Rudd becomes Labor leader): $1.40 Coalition $2.75 ALP

Feb 6: $1.72 Coalition $2.10 ALP

Mar 6: $1.80 Coalition $1.90 ALP

Mar 12: $1.77 ALP $1.95 Coalition (Rudd becomes clear favourite)

Mar 20: $1.75 ALP $2.00 Coalition

Apr 2: $1.72 ALP $2.05 Coalition (the biggest gap Labor's way)

May 2: $1.77 ALP $1.95 Coalition

May 9: $1.87 ALP $1.90 Coalition (Budget delivered)

May 11: $1.87 Coalition $1.90 ALP (Budget response) – Coalition regains favouritism!

[RustyCage]

I think the problem for the ALP was the Coalition aimed their budget at the families, a typical election year budget where they piss in the pockets of anyone stupid enough to beleive their pre election crap. The ALPs response seemed to be more of a typical non election year type budget less aimed at conning votes and aimed more at business and economy issues.

As people here know more than me on this issue, is my thinking right here?

[our_longreach]

ALP's response was very disappointing and lack lustre. Even their interviews in the press have been nowhere near as decisive as the governments. They will lose votes from this and perhaps they are at the beginning of a slide in popularity. The honeymoon is certainly well and truly over.

[redden whites]

Gee there is a shock analysis!

[Coorong]

I have a "friend" who's family (herself included) are extreme left. With some past labour members amongst them. As a unit they admit the ALP cannot succeed this time, although they have great aspirations for the future with Gillard.

[RustyCage]

I have a "friend" who's family (herself included) are extreme left. With some past labour members amongst them. As a unit they admit the ALP cannot succeed this time, although they have great aspirations for the future with Gillard.

Did they think ALP could have succeeded under Latham, Beazley or Crean?

[redandblack]

I have a "friend" who's family (herself included) are extreme left. With some past labour members amongst them. As a unit they admit the ALP cannot succeed this time, although they have great aspirations for the future with Gillard.

That's it then, the election's over.

No point discussing it further

[Coorong]

I have a "friend" who's family (herself included) are extreme left. With some past labour members amongst them. As a unit they admit the ALP cannot succeed this time, although they have great aspirations for the future with Gillard.

That's it then, the election's over.

No point discussing it further

About time we agreed

[Psyber]

I think the problem for the ALP was the Coalition aimed their budget at the families, a typical election year budget where they piss in the pockets of anyone stupid enough to beleive their pre election crap. The ALPs response seemed to be more of a typical non election year type budget less aimed at conning votes and aimed more at business and economy issues.

As people here know more than me on this issue, is my thinking right here?

Actually what Peter Costello has done is exactly what Paul Keating did too at election times - including the L... A... W... tax cuts that he then welshed on! The Labor Party, is trying to project an image of fiscal responsibility rather than scare the pants off the mortgage belt like Mark Latham did [with a little help from the Libs]. It is part of the game that all political parties play because it works on the average uncommitted voter. In neither case, in an election year, does it have anything to do with good economic management or any form of political ideals.

[TroyGFC]

Good 2 c in the budget the government doing something with the water crisis.

[mick]

I have a "friend" who's family (herself included) are extreme left. With some past labour members amongst them. As a unit they admit the ALP cannot succeed this time, although they have great aspirations for the future with Gillard.

That's interesting Coorong, I sincerely hope comrade Gillard becomes leader of the ALP it will guarantee good government in Australia for some time. I can see the libs record of 23 years being broken. We are passed the 1970s how could any serious person believe Gillard would be accepted by a basically conservative electorate? Rudd is the best chance for the ALP thank god for the left

[McAlmanac]

If Rudd loses, surely he would be given another opportunity at the next election.

Mick - given your pathological dislike of comrade Gillard, how do you view some of the more personal attacks on her from Bill Heffernan and Ken Smith? Would it not be better to attack her on a substance level? It hasn't been a good look, regardless of which side of the political fence one sits.