stan wrote:Looking at the AEC website, libs 67 and labor 71 seats at the moment. 6 undecided at this point. Good chance it could be 72 - 72.
The ABC election analyst is disputing those figures saying it doesn't make sense.
by heater31 » Tue Jul 05, 2016 11:23 am
stan wrote:Looking at the AEC website, libs 67 and labor 71 seats at the moment. 6 undecided at this point. Good chance it could be 72 - 72.
by Booney » Tue Jul 05, 2016 11:41 am
heater31 wrote:stan wrote:Looking at the AEC website, libs 67 and labor 71 seats at the moment. 6 undecided at this point. Good chance it could be 72 - 72.
The ABC election analyst is disputing those figures saying it doesn't make sense.
by heater31 » Tue Jul 05, 2016 11:52 am
Booney wrote:heater31 wrote:stan wrote:Looking at the AEC website, libs 67 and labor 71 seats at the moment. 6 undecided at this point. Good chance it could be 72 - 72.
The ABC election analyst is disputing those figures saying it doesn't make sense.
He'd know what doesn't make sense.
Anthony Green wrote:What's Going on with House Seat Numbers
I have received numerous questions about why the ABC website is not using the current seat totals on the Australian Electoral Commission's (AEC's) website.
The reason is that the AEC's current seat totals are not totals of seats won, but simply totals of seats where a party is leading. This is not an indication that a party has won these seats.
On the ABC site I prefer to leave these seats as remaining in doubt, not to include them in a total of seats won. The ABC's current seat count is Coalition 68, Labor 67, Others 5 and 10 seats undecided. Five of those seats sit on margins of under 0.5%.
Beyond this issue of dealing with very close seats, there is a second problem. The AEC site is currently excluding six seats that have clearly been won by one of the major parties.
These seats only have first preference tallies. Of these six seats, Labor has clearly won Grayndler, and the Coalition has clearly won Cowper, Higgins, Barker, Durack and O'Connor.
The reason these seats are not included in the AEC's totals is that these seats do not have significant preference counts. The AEC only has first preference totals. On the AEC's website, seats can only be given away if there is a significant two-candidate preferred count. Despite these six seats clearly being capable of being given away on first preferences, five for the Coalition and one for Labor, the lack of two-candidate preferred counts means the AEC won't give them away on its website.
If these six seats are included, and using the AEC's method of totaling all seats where parties lead, then the seat totals are Coalition 72, Labor 72, Greens 1, Nick Xenophon Team 2, Katter's Australian Party 1 and Independents 2.
While the Nick Xenophon team is currently leading on a very tiny preference count in the South Australian seat of Grey, it is not at all clear that the seat can be counted as being won by the Xenophon Team. If they don't win the seat, then the Coalition tally would be 73.
Starting from Tuesday morning, postal, absent and pre-poll absent votes will begin to be included in the count. The postal votes in particular will play a critical part in deciding the remaining doubtful seats.
As the new totals are released, the seat totals on the AEC website will start to change based on leading candidates, and the ABC website will start to give away some of the doubtful seats.
What won't change is the six seat discrepancy between the two sites which is entirely due to the six seats currently excluded from the AEC's totals.
by stan » Tue Jul 05, 2016 12:43 pm
heater31 wrote:stan wrote:Looking at the AEC website, libs 67 and labor 71 seats at the moment. 6 undecided at this point. Good chance it could be 72 - 72.
The ABC election analyst is disputing those figures saying it doesn't make sense.
by Wedgie » Tue Jul 05, 2016 1:25 pm
heater31 wrote:stan wrote:Looking at the AEC website, libs 67 and labor 71 seats at the moment. 6 undecided at this point. Good chance it could be 72 - 72.
The ABC election analyst is disputing those figures saying it doesn't make sense.
by Wedgie » Tue Jul 05, 2016 1:27 pm
by MW » Tue Jul 05, 2016 1:36 pm
by stan » Tue Jul 05, 2016 1:53 pm
Wedgie wrote:Surely as the legislation that didn't get through and caused the double dissolution has even less chance of getting through now Malcolm Turnbull would have to fall on his sword no matter what?
by Q. » Tue Jul 05, 2016 2:00 pm
by Booney » Tue Jul 05, 2016 2:05 pm
by Jimmy_041 » Tue Jul 05, 2016 2:09 pm
Booney wrote:Heard this morning that the newly elected senators could be in for 3 or 6 years. Basically the top 6 in each state ( each state has 12 senators, NT and ACT 2 each ) stay in for 6 years, the other 6 for only 3.
How do they select which senators stay for 6 years and which for only 3?
by am Bays » Tue Jul 05, 2016 2:12 pm
Booney wrote:Heard this morning that the newly elected senators could be in for 3 or 6 years. Basically the top 6 in each state ( each state has 12 senators, NT and ACT 2 each ) stay in for 6 years, the other 6 for only 3.
How do they select which senators stay for 6 years and which for only 3?
by RB » Tue Jul 05, 2016 4:32 pm
Booney wrote:Heard this morning that the newly elected senators could be in for 3 or 6 years. Basically the top 6 in each state ( each state has 12 senators, NT and ACT 2 each ) stay in for 6 years, the other 6 for only 3.
How do they select which senators stay for 6 years and which for only 3?
by Pseudo » Tue Jul 05, 2016 6:28 pm
Booney wrote:Heard this morning that the newly elected senators could be in for 3 or 6 years. Basically the top 6 in each state ( each state has 12 senators, NT and ACT 2 each ) stay in for 6 years, the other 6 for only 3.
How do they select which senators stay for 6 years and which for only 3?
by woodublieve12 » Tue Jul 05, 2016 6:33 pm
by Grahaml » Tue Jul 05, 2016 7:05 pm
by Grenville » Tue Jul 05, 2016 7:40 pm
stan wrote:Looking at the AEC website, libs 67 and labor 71 seats at the moment. 6 undecided at this point. Good chance it could be 72 - 72.
by westozfalcon » Tue Jul 05, 2016 10:39 pm
by heater31 » Tue Jul 05, 2016 10:45 pm
Grenville wrote:stan wrote:Looking at the AEC website, libs 67 and labor 71 seats at the moment. 6 undecided at this point. Good chance it could be 72 - 72.
Don't rely on anything the AEC spruiks, they wouldn't know if their arse was on fire.
by Grahaml » Tue Jul 05, 2016 10:50 pm
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