Abbott/Liberal Govt Watch

[Grahaml]

Latest update:
1,459 postal votes counted and Williams clawed back 180 votes
Georganas is now only 167 votes in front with 2,951 to count

AEC will still show a Labor win but I reckon Antony would say a Lib win on that trend (well I am anyway)

Yep, Hindmarsh will be the 75th and last seat the Coalition win.

Herbet, Capricornia and Cowan are a bridge to far IMO (Herbet is the clost 750 votes with ~9000 to be counted (based on total counted in 2013).

I make it a 75 Coalition, 70 ALP, 1 NXT, 1 Grn, 1 KAP and 2 IND House of reps

Hung parliament here we come

I agree with Jimmy and MT 79, the Australian voting populous on teh whole is smart, if they think they're being taken for granted they'll punish you at the box.

Assuming you are correct (and I'm not disputing it) the Coalition will need to find a Speaker. I doubt Katter will do it. He's no Peter Lewis out for his own glory. He would rather get what he wants from within the Govt. They wont ask Bandt
That leaves: Cathy McGowan or Andrew Wilkie. I hope they didn't do a Bob Such on Cathy McGowan - she's the odds on for the job

They don't need a speaker on top of the numbers to make government. It makes life awkward without much of a margin, but a government still holds a majority even if they provide a speaker.

[Grahaml]

So the AEC is working with actual numbers, Green is predicting trends?

They both start with the raw numbers but how they then apply those is different. When they start to count the votes they count first preferences to begin with. once that's done, they then work on a two party preferred system. The AEC won't predict a winner without any two party preferred data, even if it's a monty. But they take a limited two party preferred count and apply it across the whole electorate as if it was entirely consistent. That's why Grey swung around so dramatically after election night. Obviously a small number of booths did their two party preferred count and it produced a result that wasn't even close to the overall numbers.

Green also is very good at understanding the voting patterns of different parts of the electorate so while us mugs just see an early number of 76% to one party and think something massive has happened, he'll pipe up pointing out it's a small booth that voted 75% that way the last time. Nothing quite as entertaining though as when one of the obligitory ALP/LNP MPs says they're getting certain numbers from a seat and he doesn't believe them or points out how it's basically as he was predicting anyway.

[Jimmy_041]

Latest update:
1,459 postal votes counted and Williams clawed back 180 votes
Georganas is now only 167 votes in front with 2,951 to count

AEC will still show a Labor win but I reckon Antony would say a Lib win on that trend (well I am anyway)

Yep, Hindmarsh will be the 75th and last seat the Coalition win.

Herbet, Capricornia and Cowan are a bridge to far IMO (Herbet is the clost 750 votes with ~9000 to be counted (based on total counted in 2013).

I make it a 75 Coalition, 70 ALP, 1 NXT, 1 Grn, 1 KAP and 2 IND House of reps

Hung parliament here we come

I agree with Jimmy and MT 79, the Australian voting populous on teh whole is smart, if they think they're being taken for granted they'll punish you at the box.

Assuming you are correct (and I'm not disputing it) the Coalition will need to find a Speaker. I doubt Katter will do it. He's no Peter Lewis out for his own glory. He would rather get what he wants from within the Govt. They wont ask Bandt
That leaves: Cathy McGowan or Andrew Wilkie. I hope they didn't do a Bob Such on Cathy McGowan - she's the odds on for the job

They don't need a speaker on top of the numbers to make government. It makes life awkward without much of a margin, but a government still holds a majority even if they provide a speaker.

Just means the Speaker has to cast a vote in every 50-50 vote?

[Jimmy_041]

Provisional vote
A vote cast when a voter's name cannot be found on the certified list, the voter's name is already marked off the certified list as having voted, or the voter is registered as a silent elector.

[RB]

Just means the Speaker has to cast a vote in every 50-50 vote?

There wouldn't be any 50-50 votes on important matters given that there is an even number of members.

[am Bays]

Assuming you are correct (and I'm not disputing it) the Coalition will need to find a Speaker. I doubt Katter will do it. He's no Peter Lewis out for his own glory. He would rather get what he wants from within the Govt. They wont ask Bandt
That leaves: Cathy McGowan or Andrew Wilkie. I hope they didn't do a Bob Such on Cathy McGowan - she's the odds on for the job

They don't need a speaker on top of the numbers to make government. It makes life awkward without much of a margin, but a government still holds a majority even if they provide a speaker.

Just means the Speaker has to cast a vote in every 50-50 vote?

As we all know, 75 seats in a 150 seat parliament still requires a vote from one of the five cress benchers to get motions/bills through as one person will become the speaker making it 74-75 on the floor (if the speaker comes from the coalition benches). The speakers casting vote is null and void in that scenario, hence the need for an arrangement with one of the five, most likely NXT I reckon.

[stan]

Latest update:
1,459 postal votes counted and Williams clawed back 180 votes
Georganas is now only 167 votes in front with 2,951 to count

AEC will still show a Labor win but I reckon Antony would say a Lib win on that trend (well I am anyway)

Yep, Hindmarsh will be the 75th and last seat the Coalition win.

Herbet, Capricornia and Cowan are a bridge to far IMO (Herbet is the clost 750 votes with ~9000 to be counted (based on total counted in 2013).

I make it a 75 Coalition, 70 ALP, 1 NXT, 1 Grn, 1 KAP and 2 IND House of reps

Hung parliament here we come

I agree with Jimmy and MT 79, the Australian voting populous on teh whole is smart, if they think they're being taken for granted they'll punish you at the box.

I think thats the configuration most are expecting. In that case its likely Katter will side with the Coalition to form government.

[Jimmy_041]

Cathy McGowan's phone would be red hot

[Dogwatcher]

I thought this was an interesting yarn:

http://www.barossaherald.com.au/story/4 ... n/?cs=2452

[stan]

Katter to be the link man. Funny really that hes the one who came out with the crazy ad campaign and seemed less than sane. And now he'll most likely be holding the gun (sorry the puns there) to the governments head.

[heater31]

Update on Hindmarsh -

Georganas only 8 votes up now


with 85% counted I think they are going to have to do it all over again anyway.....

[Dogwatcher]

Update on Hindmarsh -

Georganas only 8 votes up now


with 85% counted I think they are going to have to do it all over again anyway.....

I've always expected that. This one's going down to the wire and there's no way the losing side is going to let it stand without seeking a recount.

[heater31]

Katter has met with Turnbull and has confirmed he will support the coalition in Supply and Confidence if required to form Government

Bob Katter confirms his support for the Turnbull Government

[Dogwatcher]

So....he didn't shoot the Liberals after all?

[Grenville]

http://ab.co/29Ac32u

They are a marvellous organisation.

[Sheik Yerbouti]

The bookies are usually pretty spot on.
Libs $1.03 from $1.20 this morning.
Hung parliment from $1.57 to $2, not favourite anymore.

Libs $1.001
Hung Parliment $3.75

[heater31]

Update on Hindmarsh -

Georganas only 8 votes up now


with 85% counted I think they are going to have to do it all over again anyway.....

I've always expected that. This one's going down to the wire and there's no way the losing side is going to let it stand without seeking a recount.

Finishes today with 85.3% complete

Georganas 68 infront

[heater31]

Katter has met with Turnbull and has confirmed he will support the coalition in Supply and Confidence if required to form Government

Bob Katter confirms his support for the Turnbull Government

Wilkie and McGowan join Katter in Supply & Confidence for the Coalition unless a serious cock up by the Government.

[mighty_tiger_79]

Turnbull is sending Abbott to the UK to take over from Downer.

[Jimmy_041]

Looks like Farrell and Georganis are both going back to Canberra
That opens up two overpaid state board positions for Labor to hand out to their grubby mates